Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:32PM Friday December 15, 2017 10:28 PM EST (03:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 4:10PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 950 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Snow likely early this evening, then slight chance of snow late this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain, snow and sleet in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 950 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure departs out to sea overnight. A series of weak low pressure and frontal systems will pass through the area this weekend through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 160214
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
914 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Surface low pressure, well off the delmarva, will track
northeast into the open atlantic overnight. High pressure,
centered over the southeastern united states, will nose into the
region early on Saturday. This will be short-lived as a cold
front, coming in from the north, will move into or through the
area on Saturday night and Sunday. This front will then stall
before lifting northward as a warm front Sunday night and
Monday. A cold front will progress through the region around the
middle of next week. Another system may affect the area near
the close of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
The remainder of the winter weather advisory has expired. The
back edge of the accumulating snow was off the coast at 9:00 pm.

Snowfall accumulations in the 1.5 to 3.5 inch range were
common, except in the poconos and far northern new jersey and in
parts of northeastern maryland, central and southern delaware,
and far southern new jersey where totals were less than an inch.

Gradual clearing is anticipated for tonight as low pressure
moves farther out to sea.

A west wind should increase to 5 to 10 mph. Minimum
temperatures are forecast to favor the teens in much of eastern
pennsylvania and northern new jersey, and the lower and middle
20s in southern new jersey and on the upper delmarva.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Shortwave energy rotating around the based of the large scale
trough is forecast to move across the great lakes and northeast
states on Saturday. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure
will pass to our north but a northwest flow behind this
disturbance will help steer a cold front southward into the i-80
corridor by the late afternoon.

Even with the deepest, more organized synoptic lift staying to
our north, models show a ribbon of low-level
convergence frontogenetical lift near the front that could
support some snow shower activity across the i-80 and i-78
corridor during the mid to late afternoon. We are currently only
expecting minor accumulations. Elsewhere, expect clouds to
increase as the day progresses.

Forecast high temperatures range from the lower 30s across the
i-80 corridor to the lower 40s in DELMARVA and coastal nj.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Overview... The period starts with a deepening surface low off
delmarva. This low will track to the northeast overnight into
the open atlantic. Surface high pressure, centered across the
deep south, will push up into the mid-atlantic by daybreak
Saturday. This high won't hang around long. A cold front, coming
in from the north, will move into or through the forecast area
Saturday night into Sunday. This front will back up as a warm
front Sunday night into Monday. Another cold front will push
through the region in the Tuesday Wednesday timeframe. Surface
high pressure is expected on Thursday. This will elide to a warm
front later on Thursday into Friday and a cold front very late
in the period. Both of these fronts are associated with low
pressure moving across the eastern great lakes.

Temperatures... For reference, normals for kphl are around 30
and in the middle 40s. Sunday will be slightly below normal.

Monday and Tuesday will be above normal with some mid-50s
possible across portions of the coastal plain. Wednesday looks
to be about normal with Thursday slightly below. Friday will
rebound once again with above normal temperatures. Once again,
portions of the coastal plain could see temperatures top out in
the middle 50s.

Precipitation... Small pops have been inserted late Sunday and
maintained into Sunday night. This associated with the warm
front in the vicinity. Small pops will continue into Monday and
through Tuesday night. Wednesday and Thursday will be pop free
behind the mid-week cold front. Some chance pops will be
inserted into the grids on Friday.

Winds... Fairly benign through the period. Moist noticeable
winds will be right ahead and behind the cold front Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Impacts... While the forecast will see a roller coaster week
with temperatures and multiple chances of precipitation, none
are expected to create widespread hazardous weather at this
time.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... Improving toVFR. Clearing. West wind 4 to 8 knots.

Saturday...VFR. Mostly clear in the morning, then increasing
clouds. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday night... GenerallyVFR with light and variable winds.

Medium confidence.

Sunday... GenerallyVFR. Light northeast winds to start the day
and southeast to finish. Increasing clouds and a small chance of
precipitation later in the day. Medium confidence.

Sunday night and Monday... GenerallyVFR, though brief sub-vfr
conditions are possible with light rain or snow, especially
north of phl. Light winds generally transitioning from southeast
to southwest during the period. Low confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday: sub-vfr conditions possible, with
scattered showers during the period, especially on Tuesday.

Winds primarily southwest at 5 to 15 kts. Medium confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... GenerallyVFR. Decreasing clouds
and showers on Tuesday night. No precipitation expected on
Wednesday. Winds west or northwest 10 to 20 mph. Medium
confidence.

Marine
Nw winds expected to increase as low pressure intensifies while
tracking to our east overnight. Opted for a SCA instead of a
glw for tonight and Saturday with winds generally in the 25-30
kt range. However, a brief ramp up in winds are expected late
tonight when pressure rises behind the offshore low are
greatest. Isolated gusts to near gale force at our offshore
buoys is certainly a possibility.

Outlook...

Saturday night: residual advisory-level northwest winds in the
evening will diminish overnight. Gale force gusts during the
evening can't be ruled out. Seas below criteria.

Sunday and Sunday night: sub small craft advisory conditions.

No headlines anticipated. There may be some light rain in the
afternoon and overnight with potential for some visibility
restrictions.

Monday and Monday night: sub small craft advisory conditions.

No headlines anticipated. Scattered showers, at times, could
create visibility restrictions.

Tuesday: southwest winds increasing to near advisory levels by
afternoon with seas also building. A chance of showers and
visibility restrictions.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions
expected due to northwest winds behind the front and building
seas.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz452>455.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Saturday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Kruzdlo
near term... Iovino
short term... Klein
long term... Kruzdlo
aviation... Iovino kruzdlo
marine... Klein kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi40 min WNW 16 G 21 26°F 37°F1014.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi38 min W 23 G 27 30°F 50°F2 ft1012.4 hPa (+0.0)26°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi40 min W 14 G 16 25°F 1014 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi40 min 22°F 43°F1013.6 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi40 min SW 9.9 G 11
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi40 min 24°F 46°F1014.1 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi40 min NW 12 G 15 26°F 42°F1014 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi43 min WSW 14 G 18 27°F 22°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi40 min W 4.1 G 5.1 24°F 36°F1015 hPa
44091 44 mi28 min 50°F2 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi38 min WNW 19 G 23 33°F 51°F2 ft1012.1 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi32 minW 510.00 miFair19°F17°F92%1014.8 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi37 minW 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy25°F19°F78%1013.7 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi37 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy22°F18°F85%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W5NW7NW6CalmSW3W3W3SW4SW3W4NW3Calm--NW4NW5NW6W4NW6NW5NW6NW5W6W5
1 day agoSW10SW4E4E4CalmCalmNW3NW5NW4NW5NW6NW11NW13NW9W12NW15W13
G22
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2 days agoW16
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Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Oceanic Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:05 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     3.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:05 PM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.10.211.92.83.53.73.42.82.11.30.60.100.51.32.12.83.12.92.41.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:02 AM EST     1.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:53 AM EST     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:37 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:29 PM EST     1.47 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:01 PM EST     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-0.90.21.21.81.91.70.8-0.3-1.1-1.8-2-1.8-1.5-0.70.41.11.41.40.8-0.2-1-1.6-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.