Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:24 PM EDT (03:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:47AMMoonset 12:27PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 855 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and possibly a tstm, mainly before midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves subsiding to 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm at times.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm at times.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms, with vsby 1 to 3 nm at times.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 855 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move across tonight, followed by weak high pressure on Monday. A warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just south of long island. The front may lift through on Thursday, followed by a cold frontal approach Thursday night. This front may linger into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 270038
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
838 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross our region overnight, then high pressure
builds to our north Monday and Monday night. This high builds
offshore early Tuesday, while a warm front lifts across our area.

This front may stall through Wednesday while a couple of low
pressure systems move eastward along it. This front then lifts to
our north Wednesday night, before a couple of cold front move across
the area later Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 830 pm, an update has been sent to include severe
thunderstorm watch #258 for our maryland and delaware zones
which GOES until 1 am. Main threat is locally damaging winds and
some hail. Some initial training may result in locally very
heavy rain.

A mid level impulse is moving across central pennsylvania as of this
writing near a surface cold front. It is this feature that is aiding
in large scale forcing and therefore an increase in showers and some
thunderstorms has occurred. This looks to move across portions of
the northern zones, therefore the pops were increased quite a bit
for awhile this evening. In addition, a convectively generated
boundary looks to be draped across far southern new jersey westward
and new convection has rapidly developed along it as some better
ascent has arrived. While convective coverage has been rather sparse
overall, some increase in deeper convection is expected especially
across the far southern areas given the instability and shear
parameters.

Any stronger convective cores that are sustained will have the
potential to produce locally strong to damaging winds especially
given some dry air aloft leading to a downburst potential. Some hail
is possible, however severe hail would be limited to any isolated
robust sustained core. The severe threat looks to be mostly for
maryland and delaware and perhaps into far southern new jersey. It
is here where some enhancement could take place by late evening from
the convective complex now in the eastern ohio and west virginia
areas.

Once the cold front clears the area overnight, some drier air will
begin to advect in from the northwest. Plenty of mid to high level
clouds streaming across the area this evening, some of which is
convective cloud debris, will thin out late tonight behind the cold
front.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Memorial day should be a pleasant day for much of the region.

The only possible exception is portions of delmarva. If the
front stalls over this area, showers and storms could linger in
delmarva through the day. Although there is still some
uncertainty, so I stayed close to the previous forecast, it is
worth noting that some of the 12z models show this front
clearing much further south, leaving the entire region dry.

Temperatures behind the front will be 5 to 10 degrees lower
than Sunday, with highs mostly in the 70s and lower 80s. Despite
the northwesterly flow, a sea breeze could develop later in the
day, cooling coastal areas further.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
An unsettle pattern continues for much of the upcoming week
into the weekend, with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday night will start out fairly quiet as high pressure
builds to our north. Very late in the night, the high pressure
begins to lose any grip it has on our area as a frontal boundary
begins to lift northward, and as a short wave vorticity impulse
moves into the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

As we go into Tuesday, the front lifting toward the area is
forecast to slow down and may stall out across the region later
Tuesday, into Tuesday night, and into Wednesday as well as
several waves of low pressure move along the boundary. As
multiple rounds of short waves vorticity impulses aloft move
across the area within the northwest-west flow aloft, showers
and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast Tuesday-
Wednesday, although it will not rain the entire time. The higher
probabilities will be tied to the passages of the short waves.

As we move into Wednesday night, the frontal boundary is
expected to lift to our north, and precipitation chances will
lower through Wednesday night, although not be zero as there
will remain unsettled conditions with an additional short
wave vorticity impulse affect the area.

On Thursday and Friday, a couple of frontal boundaries are
forecast to move across the area. The front on Thursday
currently looks to be the stronger of the two, and has a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms to be associated with it.

Thursday also has higher pw values at 1.5-2.0 for some areas, so
it will have a higher threat for heavy rainfall, although pw
values remain over an inch into Friday.

Dry weather may return for early Saturday as high pressure
briefly builds across the northeast and into our area. However,
showers may begin to develop during the afternoon as return flow
develops and a short wave moves across the area. Also, another
cold front is currently forecast to move toward the area on
Sunday, which could bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area.

Temperatures through most of the extended period are forecast
to be above normal, with Tuesday possibly being the coolest day
and below or near normal.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Some showers and thunderstorms around through about
midnight, with greatest coverage possible near abe and rdg then near
and south from about ilg to acy. Local and brief MVFR ifr conditions
(especially visibility) will occur with any heavier shower or
thunderstorm. Otherwise,VFR. Westerly winds mainly 5-10 knots,
becoming all light northerly overnight.

Monday...VFR. North winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally west and
southwest later in the afternoon. A sea breeze at acy and miv will
result in a wind shift to east to southeast.

Outlook...

Monday night... GenerallyVFR condition expected, although
clouds increase and lower late in the night with a chance of
showers. Winds become northeast 5-10 knots overnight.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... MVFR ceilings may develop early Tuesday
as a warm front lifts across the area and continue into the
night. Chance of showers and thunderstorms during the period.

East to northeast winds Tuesday and Tuesday evening, become
southeast Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Wednesday night... MVFR conditions possible early,
then lifting toVFR during the morning. Showers and
thunderstorms remain possible, especially Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Winds shift to southwest early and may gust 15-20
knots during the day.

Thursday-Thursday night... GenerallyVFR, except lower
conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and night. Southwest winds may gust 15-20 knots during
the day Thursday.

Friday... GenerallyVFR, except lower conditions possible with
showers and thunderstorms during the day. Southwest winds may
gust 20-25 knots during the day.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through memorial day. Some thunderstorms with gusty winds
will be possible this evening mainly south of atlantic city.

Outlook...

Monday night-Friday... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels through the period, although winds may gust
around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day, which could produce locally higher winds
and waves should they occur.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents increases to
moderate on Monday. A long period swell (around 10 seconds) combined
with some increase in the wind as it turns onshore, enhancing a sea
breeze some, is expected to result in an elevated rip current risk
on memorial day especially in the afternoon.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Gorse
short term... Johnson
long term... Robertson
aviation... Gorse robertson
marine... Gorse johnson robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi37 min WSW 8 G 8.9 67°F 62°F1013.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi35 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 61°F3 ft1011.8 hPa62°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi43 min 65°F1011.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi37 min W 12 G 13 73°F 1011.6 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi37 min WSW 7 G 12
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi37 min 71°F 60°F1011.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi37 min WNW 5.1 G 7 69°F 61°F1012.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi37 min NW 6 G 8 67°F1013.4 hPa
44091 44 mi25 min 61°F4 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi35 min WSW 9.7 G 9.7 64°F 60°F3 ft1011.3 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi29 minW 810.00 miOvercast73°F66°F81%1012.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi34 minWSW 810.00 miLight Rain71°F69°F94%1011.9 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi34 minW 810.00 miLight Rain72°F66°F84%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW5S5SW4SW5W6W8W9W9W8W9W9W12NW12
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1 day agoNW6NW5N6SE6SE5SE4SE4SE3S6SE7SE8S7S7SE12SE11
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N9N7N8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 01:40 PM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.41.30.90.1-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.4-1-0.40.61.21.21.10.6-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.2-0.9-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.