Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monmouth Junction, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 1:21 PM EST (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 6:42PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 951 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Snow and rain late this morning, then chance of snow early this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 951 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will move north across nantucket into the gulf of maine today. High pressure will then build in from the southwest through Thursday, then to the south through Friday, and into the western atlantic this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monmouth Junction, NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171745
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1245 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move into the canadian maritimes today. High
pressure will build across the gulf coast through the end of the
week, then offshore over the weekend. An area of low pressure
will move across eastern canada over the weekend as a back door
cold front approaches from the north. Another area of low
pressure will move through the great lakes Monday night into
Tuesday, pulling a cold front across the area.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Snow has mostly ended across the area, with the exception of the
nj shore and southern delaware. We may continue to see very
light snow move into these areas until the mid and upper level
low, moves further east into the carolinas this evening.

With the cold front earlier this morning, temperatures will
continue to slowly fall through the afternoon. Northwesterly
winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected to continue through the
afternoon

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
The low is forecast to move across canada's maritime provinces
tonight as high pressure begins to nose into our region from the
west and southwest. We are anticipating a mostly clear sky
along with a northwest to west wind around 5 to 10 mph.

Cold temperatures will return for tonight with lows mostly in
the teens. Single digit readings are possible in the poconos and
in far northern new jersey.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Main focus of the long term is the warmup late this week
through this weekend and a storm system moving through the
region early next week. Most of the focus today was on the first
36 hours of the forecast, so overall made few changes from the
previous shift.

Trough axis swings through the eastern seaboard Wednesday
night, with a broad surface high building into the mid-atlantic
and southeast for the rest of the week into the weekend. After a
small- scale perturbation moves through the northeast Thursday
night (which should be dry), midlevel zonal flow will be present
Friday through the weekend, allowing the surface high to slide
eastward and promoting southwesterly surface flow to develop
east of the appalachians this weekend.

This pattern will result in a lengthy dry period and a distinct
warming trend after a chilly Thursday (when heights thicknesses
will be lowest, owing to the proximity of the trough). Forecast
highs are in the 50s for philly this weekend, based on a
consensus blend of statistical guidance... Though I leaned a
little on the higher side of consensus given the tendency for
mos to be on the low side in warming patterns.

Operational models develop a strong surface cyclone in the
central plains this weekend (with downstream ridging further
contributing to warmth Sunday and Monday in our area) before
lifting it rapidly northeastward into the great lakes and
adjacent southeast canada early next week. A strong cold front
will progress through the east Monday and Tuesday, with showery
precipitation developing near the front. Temperatures will
likely be warm enough for liquid in most locations for the
event, with the exception being the far northwest CWA during the
precip's waning stages.

Regarding timing, models generally agree on Monday afternoon
through Monday night. Given such good agreement this far out,
boosted pops to high chance or likely during this time frame.

The greater uncertainty lies with the intensity of the
precipitation (given the southern origins of the system and the
warmth it advects downstream, there is some potential for decent
precipitation totals, especially if embedded convection can
develop), extent of cold air on the upstream side of the system
(i.E., precipitation type issues as the system departs), and the
speed with which the precipitation moves out before the colder
air moves in.

As previously mentioned, did not change the details during this
time frame too much, but my initial thoughts were to go on the
warm side and on the quick side given typical model biases with
northeast- progressing inland surface lows originating from the
southern southwestern u.S.

By midweek, temperatures will be slightly cooler, and
conditions should dry out.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... With the exception of localized low clouds and
visibility restrictions at kttn, kacy, and kmiv, the rest of the
taf sites have returned toVFR conditions and should remain
there for the rest of the TAF period. Northwesterly wind of 10
to 15 knots is expected through the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with a mostly clear sky and a northwest to west
wind at 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR. West to southwest winds; winds
may gust 15-20 knots at time. High confidence.

Marine
A northwest wind is expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots
today with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. As a result, a small craft
advisory is in effect for today and tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday... Small craft advisory extended through the day
Thursday as winds expected to gust to 25 knots.

Thursday night... Conditions expected to drop below advisory
levels.

Friday-Sunday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels, but winds may periodically gust around 20 knots.

Equipment
The NOAA all-hazards weather radio transmitter in sudlersville
remains off the air as technicians continue to work on phone
line issues.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Iovino johnson
short term... Iovino
long term... Cms robertson
aviation... Iovino johnson robertson
marine... Iovino robertson
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 20 mi52 min NNW 11 G 17 29°F 32°F1025 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 27 mi52 min NW 5.1 G 12 28°F 32°F1024.6 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi52 min WNW 11 G 13
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi52 min 33°F 33°F1023.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 29 mi52 min WNW 12 G 14 33°F 33°F1024.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi52 min WNW 9.9 G 9.9 32°F 1024 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi52 min 33°F 34°F1023.9 hPa
BDSP1 39 mi52 min 27°F 35°F1025.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 44 mi52 min 29°F 32°F1025.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi92 min NW 16 G 19 35°F 42°F5 ft1022.8 hPa (-0.8)35°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ15 mi29 minWNW 106.00 miOvercast with Haze29°F24°F82%1023.3 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ18 mi29 minVar 33.00 miFog/Mist30°F28°F92%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from TTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3N4NE5E4CalmN4N4N4NE4N6NW5N5NW4NW4NW4NW6NW4NW6NW5NW7NW9NW10
1 day agoNE9E10E6E7E5E6E6E6E5NE5NE6NE3N3N4NE5NE7E3CalmE4E4E3SE3SE43
2 days agoN10N7N8N6N5N5N5N4NE5N7NE7N5NE4N7N8NE7NE5NE7NE7NE10NE9NE9E11E9

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:22 AM EST     6.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:08 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:45 PM EST     5.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.70.10.11.12.64.25.465.95.13.82.41.20.2-0.30.11.32.844.854.53.5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:40 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:38 AM EST     5.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:19 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:01 PM EST     4.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.80.80.200.82.23.755.85.95.242.71.40.3-0.3-0.112.43.64.54.94.63.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.