Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monmouth Junction, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:58PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 9:03 AM EDT (13:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 524 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 524 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical cyclone jose slowly moves south and east of the waters through tonight and meanders offshore on Thursday. High pressure builds to the north and west on Thursday, remaining in place through early next week as jose weakens and slowly meanders to the southeast. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on jose.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monmouth Junction, NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201256
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
856 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Tropical storm jose will move slowly north and northeastward well
offshore through tonight. High pressure will slowly build eastward
tomorrow into the region and become firmly established for the
remainder of the week into early next week. Jose will continue to
meander well offshore through the weekend as well.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The center of tropical storm jose was located about 250 miles east
of the delaware coast early this morning. It should move about 100
miles to the northeast during the course of the day.

The circulation around jose will maintain a northerly wind in our
region. Speeds are forecast to be around 15 mph near the coast and
near 10 mph inland.

Varying amounts of cloud cover are expected for today as we remain
on the outer edge of the system. The model guidance is suggesting
the development of a weak convergence zone in eastern pennsylvania
and new jersey for this afternoon. We have included a slight chance
of showers in parts of those areas.

Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be mostly in the lower and
middle 80s which is about 8 to 10 degrees above normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Jose is expected to continue drifting to the northeast for tonight.

The sky over our region is forecast to become partly cloudy. The
north to northwest wind is anticipated to diminish to 5 mph or less
at most locations. Low temperatures should favor the 60s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Thursday through Friday night:
jose will continue an eastward northeastward movement away from our
region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our north and
west with high pressure becoming established over the region. Winds
will ease on Thursday as jose continues to move away.

Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite warm
for mid-september would would yield highs in the 80's for a good
portion of the region after starting warm in the 60's. Mav met in
better alignment with this now.

Saturday through Tuesday:
ensemble guidance has had a reverse trend the last couple of cycles
with more members from the gfs, ECMWF and canadian suites showing a
much weaker jose making a loop back to the southwest by early next
week. Any southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid-
level ridging developing to our west and north throughout the
remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go
with the mainstream idea that jose will continue to be located east
enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our region.

Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region through
early next weekend with a strong - pna pattern of almost four
standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of anomalous
warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble guidance may still
be playing catch up to the pattern that is expected to occur. Highs
were raised a couple of degrees for the weekend from the ensemble
mean with a few locations making a run close to 90 on Sunday. Stayed
closer to the mean of the ensemble guidance for early next week
given the increased uncertainty.

If jose were to trend back to the southwest, more clouds along
with somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted
would occur. Uncertainty also revolves around the interaction of
jose with hurricane maria and any potential impacts to our area
by the early to middle part of next week. Stay tuned to the
latest advisories and forecasts from the national hurricane
forecast for more information on jose and maria.

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Localized MVFR ceilings are forecast early this morning. Otherwise,
we are anticipatingVFR conditions through the balance of the taf
period with varying amounts of cloud cover.

A northerly wind around 10 to 15 knots today is expected to diminish
to 8 knots or less for tonight. The wind direction may begin to back
toward the northwest at that time.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night:VFR. North to northwest winds 7-15
knots. Patchy fog if winds go light enough early Thursday morning
for krdg, kabe and kmiv.

Friday through Sunday:VFR. Winds generally 10 knots or less.

Marine
The tropical storm warning will be replaced by a small craft
advisory. A north to northwest wind on our ocean waters should start
the day at 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon, then around 10 knots for tonight. However, wave heights
will remain high due to tropical storm jose. Waves on our ocean
waters should be 7 to 10 feet this morning and 5 to 8 feet this
afternoon. They are forecast to subside to 4 to 6 feet tonight.

The wind is expected to diminish gradually today on delaware bay, as
well. The small craft advisory for the upper bay should be allowed
to expire at 10:00 am. We will keep a small craft advisory for the
lower bay until 4:00 pm, mainly for wind gusts and waves this
morning and simply for waves this afternoon. It should take until
late afternoon for the wave heights near the mouth of delaware bay
to drop below 5 feet.

Outlook...

tropical headlines replaced with a sca. Seas will remain above
five feet through the entire outlook period given the proximity
of jose on the coastal waters.

Rip currents...

tropical storm jose will continue to push swells toward the coasts
of delaware and new jersey today. As a result, there remains a high
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for today.

The risk may drop to moderate for Thursday-Friday with waves
subsiding a bit and winds becoming light. However, long- period
swells from hurricane maria may arrive this weekend, which could
raise the risk to high again.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal anomalies have come down about 1 2 to 3 4 ft (anomalies
are currently 1.25-1.75 ft above astronomical) since peaking
last night, which is enough to prevent another round of moderate
coastal flooding from occurring across the area with the
ongoing high tide cycle this morning. Accordingly, the coastal
flood warning for atlantic, CAPE may and cumberland counties in
new jersey and for sussex and kent counties in delaware have
been cancelled and replaced with a coastal flood advisory. The
coastal flood advisory also includes the central nj coastline
and raritan bay as well as coastal areas along the delaware bay.

The coastal flood advisory was also extended into tonight for
the abovementioned areas to cover the subsequent high tide
cycle this evening.

We do not anticipate any tidal flooding with today or tonight's
high tide along the delaware river upstream from the commodore
barry bridge area or on the upper eastern shore of chesapeake
bay.

The potential for minor tidal flooding around the times of high tide
will likely linger into tonight and Thursday, and perhaps even into
Friday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through this evening for njz014-024>026.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for njz012>014-
020>027.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for njz016.

De... High rip current risk through this evening for dez004.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz430.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz431.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Gaines
aviation... Gaines iovino
marine... Gaines iovino
tides coastal flooding... Klein


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 20 mi46 min N 6 G 7 72°F 73°F1012.3 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi46 min N 19 G 22
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 27 mi88 min 70°F 71°F1011.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi52 min 72°F 71°F1011 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 29 mi46 min N 12 G 17 72°F 71°F1011.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi46 min N 19 G 22 72°F 1011.5 hPa
BDSP1 39 mi46 min 71°F 1012.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 44 mi46 min 72°F 73°F1011.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi74 min N 21 G 27 72°F 70°F7 ft1008.1 hPa (+1.2)66°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ15 mi71 minNNW 710.00 miFair71°F64°F79%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from TTN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE7NE8E8E9NE7NE6NE6NE6NE7E7NE5N4N6NE8NE7NE8NE7N8NE8N8NE9N9N9NE10
G16
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW5Calm3CalmCalmE5SE5SE3CalmE4E4CalmN3NE55E7NE3N3NE5N5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 03:18 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:04 AM EDT     7.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:35 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:19 PM EDT     6.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.31.70.4-0.4-0.21.234.96.476.65.43.92.30.9-0.1-0.20.92.74.56.16.96.75.7

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 03:29 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM EDT     6.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:46 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:35 PM EDT     6.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.520.6-0.3-0.30.82.54.45.96.86.65.64.12.61.10-0.20.62.245.66.66.75.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.