Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Navesink, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:13PM Thursday March 23, 2017 10:12 PM EDT (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:11AMMoonset 2:34PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 808 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Light rain likely...mainly in the evening.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of light rain.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely... Mainly after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the daytime...then chance of rain at night.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning. Chance of rain at night.
ANZ300 808 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the region on Friday. A back door cold front moves through Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Low pressure gradually approaches from the west Sunday, and moves across on Monday. Another frontal system may impact the region Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navesink, NJ
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location: 40.41, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231929
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
329 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure across the middle atlantic will move offshore by
Friday, while a warm front moves through the ohio valley. This
frontal boundary will become nearly stationary near our region
through Tuesday, as several waves of low pressure move along it. A
cold frontal passage is expected Wednesday, followed by canadian
high pressure building into our area on Thursday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
It looks very likely now that any precip will hold off until after
sunrise tomorrow morning. All the same, we will be monitoring
temperature trends very carefully overnight as that could have
implications for precipitation type once it does begin Friday
morning. Until the clouds move in, we will have efficient
radiational cooling conditions with light winds and dry boundary
layer conditions. For now, I have gone mostly on the colder side of
guidance for temperatures, with lows ranging from the upper teens to
lower 30s.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Saturday/
As mentioned earlier, a big factor in how precipitation will begin
will be how quickly clouds move in tonight and how much radiational
cooling we have before then. Further complicating precip type is
that the air will likely remain quite dry at least through the
morning hours until moisture advection begins. Thus, could see some
wetbulb effects further lowering the temperature with and just
before the start of precipitation. All that to say, we have the
highest confidence that the southern poconos will see a wintry mix
of precipitation. For carbon and monroe counties, will issue a
winter weather advisory through the morning hours. Much less
confident (but still possible) for the next row of counties
including NW nj, lehigh valley, and berks co. DELMARVA and far
southern nj are unlikely to get any precip at all.

By early afternoon, expect all locations to be above freezing and
all precipitation to be rain.

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/
An unsettled period of weather is in store this weekend thru the
middle of next week. At the mid-levels across the conus, a generally
zonal northern stream flow will be in place, while several shortwave
disturbances traverse the southern stream. Meanwhile at the surface,
canadian and sub-tropical high pressure systems will maintain a
frontal boundary in the vicinity of our region until a more
substantial frontal passage on Wednesday.

The primary uncertainty will be the location of the aforementioned
boundary, along with the timing of several areas of low pressure
that ride along it, and accompanying areas of precipitation. Of most
concern is the potential of mixed precipitation Sunday night.

On Saturday, the NAM and ec are most extensive with the overrunning
precipitation associated with the stationary boundary to our north.

The GFS looks more reasonable with the placement of the precip in
relation to the frontal boundary, confining pops to the northern
half of our cwa, and our forecast reflects this.

As the frontal boundary moves southward in response to canadian high
pressure building to the north, scattered showers are possible
across our entire area Saturday night into Sunday. As low pressure
moves through the ohio valley into the great lakes from Sunday night
into Monday, more substantial overrunning precip is likely during
this time frame.

As mentioned previously, there is some potential for mixed
precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning. A review of plan
view 2-meter and 850 hpa temperatures, 1000 to 500 hpa and 1000 to
850 hpa thicknesses, model p-type, ens plume diagrams, model
soundings, and cips analogs points to freezing rain as the primary
concern. There is a high amount of uncertainty, especially at this
range in the forecast, which translates into low confidence. The
probability for freezing rain is low at this time, therefore it was
not mentioned in the hwo (per our directives), but this will need to
reassessed with future forecast packages. Also, please note that ice
map on our website is for Friday, march 23.

Expect showers to continue Monday night into Wednesday, and another
round of more substantial precip likely centered on Tuesday night
into Wednesday, associated with a cold frontal passage. There is
uncertainty with the timing of this front, particularly given the
time range, but a gradual return to fair weather should occur on
Wednesday and continue into Thursday.

Temperature-wise, at or above normal through the period.

Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions will continue through at least 12z. After 12z, there
is an increasing risk for precipitation (expected to be all rain at
the TAF sites, but freezing precipitation will be possible N and w
of kabe and krdg). With any rain, brief MVFR conditions will be
possible. The rain should move out by mid afternoon bringing a
return toVFR conditions.

Light and variable winds may continue through much of the overnight
hours before settling in out of the south by 12z Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... A period of MVFR is possible in low
clouds, especially northwest of an acy-miv line. Otherwise,VFR.

Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots on Saturday will shift to the
east Saturday night into Sunday, increasing to 10-20 knots.

Sunday night thru Tuesday... Periods of MVFR possible in low clouds
and fog. South-southwest winds Sunday night into Monday may shift to
the east-southeast Monday night and Tuesday, generally at or below
20 knots.

Marine
Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria tonight into tomorrow
morning. By mid day tomorrow, winds will increase. Gusts above 25 kt
will be possible especially for the new jersey coastal waters
through the afternoon hours.

Outlook...

if confidence increases for elevated winds and seas to linger
into Saturday night, the small craft advisory (sca) may need to
be extended further into this time frame.

As a front moves south across the waters on Sunday, winds and seas
may increase to SCA levels during the day, mainly across the
northern nj waters.

Looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday, wave heights may build in
excess of five feet during this period. Therefore, a SCA may be
needed.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 8 am to 1 pm edt Friday for
paz054-055.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for
anz450>453.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Franck
aviation... Franck/johnson
marine... Franck/johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 4 mi43 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 37°F 41°F1034 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 17 mi43 min 39°F 41°F1034.9 hPa
MHRN6 17 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 17 mi43 min S 8.9 G 8.9 38°F 1035.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi83 min S 14 G 18 38°F 41°F2 ft1034.4 hPa (+1.1)26°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 20 mi43 min 40°F 41°F1034.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 31 mi43 min 2.9 G 4.1 36°F 39°F1035.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi43 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 36°F 43°F1035 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi58 min S 1.9 G 3.9 37°F 23°F
44091 46 mi43 min 42°F2 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi83 min WSW 16 G 18 37°F 41°F2 ft1034.3 hPa (+0.7)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi43 min Calm G 1 37°F 43°F1034.3 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ17 mi17 minSE 310.00 miFair33°F21°F64%1035.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi22 minS 910.00 miA Few Clouds36°F26°F67%1035.5 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ22 mi22 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds40°F1°F20%1034.8 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW17
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NW15NW14
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NW9NW9W6W6W5W5NW4NW10NW9NW9NW8
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W8NW7SE7SE7SE6SE4
1 day agoW4SW4S4NW4NW4NW3W5NW9NW16
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2 days agoW7W6W6W7W6W4W5SW5W4W5W6W6NW6W6W7W7W6W8W8W10W11W6SW5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic Highlands, Sandy Hook Bay, New Jersey
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Atlantic Highlands
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:28 AM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:09 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.62.53.44.14.44.43.93.12.31.60.90.60.81.62.53.33.94.13.93.32.51.71.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:38 PM EDT     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.30.61.31.51.30.90.1-0.8-1.4-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.9-0.10.81.21.210.4-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.