Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Navesink, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:52PM Sunday April 30, 2017 12:43 PM EDT (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1122 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the evening...then patchy dense fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less...building to around 2 ft. Areas of drizzle and patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the daytime...then showers at night.
ANZ300 1122 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds down from southeastern canada today...then retreats to the northeast into Monday...allowing a warm front to lift to the north during the day on Monday. A cold front slowly crosses the tri-state Monday night and Tuesday morning...followed by high pressure building in through Wednesday night...then sliding offshore into Thursday. An area of low pressure approaches from the southwest on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navesink, NJ
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location: 40.41, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 301552
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1152 am edt Sun apr 30 2017

Synopsis
A front to our south today will lift northward tonight into Monday
morning as a warm front. A cold front is expected Monday night as an
area of low pressure moves into the great lakes region. This low
will drift northeastward across eastern canada through mid week.

Another low pressure system will lift out of the lower mississippi
valley towards the mid atlantic by late in the week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
A front is nearly stalled just to our south. Meanwhile, high
pressure is across southeastern canada to new england then extends
to off the mid atlantic coast. This will continue to allow for an
onshore flow, resulting in a much cooler day compared to yesterday.

There is a lot cloudiness across the area, although breaks have been
occurring as the onshore flow is battling some drying that is
working in from the north and northeast. The nearby 12z raobs show
the moist layer is fairly thin, and the onshore flow is mostly below
3000 feet where it shifts and becomes southwesterly above this
level. The visible satellite imagery shows the cloud movement is
from southwest to northeast, although there appears to be a
convergence band of clouds near the CAPE may county coast and
delaware beaches eastward. Overall enough breaks are resulting in
some warmer temperatures inland and therefore the high temperatures
were increased at least a few degrees for many locales. Temperatures
should lower some this afternoon especially closer to the coast
given the onshore flow.

There is a burst of low-level warm air advection to our northwest
along with a weak short wave. There continues to be some convection
with this, however this is tracking to our west and north. While an
isolated shower cannot be ruled out mainly for the southern poconos,
looks like chances are much better to our north and west.

The hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids were adjusted based
on the latest observations. The temperatures were increased some
based on trends and some assistance from the hrrr.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday/
The frontal boundary to our south is expected to begin lifting
northward as a warm front overnight tonight into Monday morning. As
the front begins to lift into our area after sunset and overnight, a
couple of short wave/vorticity impulses are forecast to move across
the area as well. Typically with a warm front lifting across the
area, we would expect fog to develop, and possibly become dense. But
with the short wave/vorticity impulse, there will be some lift
across the area and there is the potential for some showers to
develop. With this turbulent air and a steady enough of a breeze,
while there will likely be some fog develop, we do not have any
dense fog forecast at this time. Another possibility overnight in
addition to the light fog is for some patchy drizzle to form. This
would most likely be for the northern half of the area north of the
lifting warm front.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/
Monday... Increasing southerly flow is expected in advance of the
cold front Monday night. This will enhance the warm air
advection that will already be occuring in the wake of the warm
front tonight. Thus, expect temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees
above normal, with highs generally in the 70s and low 80s.

Depending on how quickly the ridge moves further off shore and
how quickly the cold front approaches the region, we could start
to see showers and storms propagate into eastern pa late in the
day.

Monday night... Cold front still on track to sweep through the
region late Monday night. Given the timing of the frontal
passage, low level lapse rates will be limited just ahead of the
front, which will limit instability (though there may still be
some surface based cape). However, 0-6km shear values will be
relatively high... On the order of 40 to 60 kt. This could lead
to a low cape/high shear set up for severe winds. However, this
is far from certain as if the inversion Monday night is stronger
than model soundings currently show, this could inhibit strong
winds mixing down to the surface altogether (similar to what we
saw with the storms last night). Additionally, precipitable
water values in the warm sector will be quite high. Expect the
threat for heavy downpours will be quite high, but the fast
storm motions should limit the flooding threat to poor drainage
areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday... In the wake of the cold front,
temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees lower, with highs
generally in the 60s and 70s. Models have trended faster with
the dry air advection behind the front, so I trimmed back on
the pops on Tuesday. It is looking mostly dry both days.

Thursday through Saturday... A warm front is expected to lift
north through the region Thursday or Thursday night. This will
be the start of the unsettled late week pattern. The biggest
question with this pattern is the evolution of the mid and upper
level low. The previous ECMWF showed the low becoming cutoff
over the lower mississippi valley. However, with the 00z run, it
has come closer to the GFS (which has stayed relatively
consistent with the last few runs). Both models depict the low
closing, deepening, and intensifying as it lifts northeast
through this period. However, there remain large differences in
the track and timing. For now, have stayed close to the previous
forecast and a consensus of guidance, with mostly medium chance
of precip, except Thursday night into Friday, with likely pops.

Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR ceilings near 4000 feet should lower to near
2500 feet later this afternoon. Confidence regarding lower
ceilings remains less than average as there is some drier air
working into parts of our region from the north-northeast. East
to southeast winds mainly in the 10-15 knot range, with some
local gusts to around 20 knots at times.

Tonight... MVFR ceilings are anticipated to lower to ifr this evening
(locally lifr overnight) as a warm front gradually shifts northward.

Some fog and drizzle should develop, however the extent of this is
less certain at this time. Visibilities are currently forecast to
lower into the 1-2sm range overnight. Some improvement may take
place toward morning especially at miv and acy as the warm front
shifts northward. East or southeast winds mainly 4-8 knots.

Outlook...

Monday... Ifr/MVFR conditions should be present to start at most
terminals, then improving toVFR by late morning. South to southwest
winds increasing to near 15 knots, with gusts 20-25 knots in the
afternoon.

Monday night... Widespread MVFR or ifr conditions with thunderstorms
likely. An abrupt wind shift to westerly is expected with a cold
front Monday night.

Tuesday and Wednesday... MostlyVFR conditions expected.

Thursday... StartingVFR, but may lower to MVFR as showers and
thunderstorms start to move into the region.

Marine
A front has settled to our south and will stall today before
gradually shifting north tonight and Monday morning as a warm
front. Northeast winds will turn easterly through the day with
gusts at times to around 20 knots.

North of the front tonight winds will remain easterly, but south of
the front the winds will become southerly. It is possible the front
may clear all of the waters during the overnight. While winds may
not reach advisory criteria, seas may begin building through the
night, but especially toward daybreak Monday. Overall, the
conditions are expected to be below advisory criteria through
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... Building seas and increasing winds
are expected by Monday morning. Southerly gusts near or above 30
kt are possible Monday evening on the coastal waters. On the
delaware bay, there is a bit more uncertainty, but sca
conditions are possible.

Tuesday... Winds will shift to southwesterly and then westerly behind
a cold front expected early Tuesday. Gusts on Tuesday may linger
near 25 kt. Elevated seas may linger into Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday... Winds and seas are expected to stay below
sca criteria.

Climate
**record or number 2 warmest april on record**
presuming our forecast temps these last 30 hrs of april are
accurate, we are assured of a top 2 warmest april on record in
much of our forecast area. Sunday temps determine record or
not.

Just below: april projected within the top april average temps,
the normal for april and the period of record (por).

This includes yesterdays (29th) high and low temperatures
through 4 pm.

Phl normal 54.0 por 1874
59.5 2017 projected warmest ever: still could slip .2 degrees.

59.4 1994
58.5 1921
58.4 2010
57.9 1941
abe normal 49.9 por 1922
56.8 projecting record and almost cant miss a record.

56.4 1941
54.7 1994
acy normal 51.7 por 1874
57.6 projecting record and almost cant miss.

56.3 2010
56.1 2011

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Gorse
short term... Robertson
long term... Johnson/o'hara
aviation... Gorse/johnson
marine... Johnson/robertson
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 4 mi44 min E 7 G 11 57°F 55°F1023.2 hPa (+0.3)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 17 mi44 min SE 20 G 24 61°F 1024 hPa (-0.0)
MHRN6 17 mi44 min ESE 16 G 21
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 17 mi44 min 63°F 55°F1023.7 hPa (-0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi54 min E 18 G 19 53°F 50°F3 ft1023.6 hPa (-0.4)45°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 20 mi44 min 62°F 53°F1023.4 hPa (-0.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 31 mi44 min NE 8 G 9.9 57°F 53°F1023.5 hPa (-0.6)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi44 min ESE 5.1 G 8 65°F 64°F1023.4 hPa (+0.0)
44091 46 mi44 min 54°F4 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi54 min E 18 G 21 51°F 50°F3 ft1023.4 hPa (+0.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi68 min 65°F 62°F1022.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ17 mi48 minE 14 G 1810.00 miOvercast59°F41°F51%1024.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi53 minE 21 G 2910.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy63°F42°F47%1024.1 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ22 mi53 minESE 7 G 1410.00 miOvercast65°F41°F42%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9
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W8W5W3NW6N7N4NE8N7N5N4N6N3NE10NE11NE10
G16
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1 day agoSW85SW13
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S7W11SW6W7SW4S4S6S7S6SW5S4SW4W3SE4N5CalmS6S6W8W12
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2 days agoSE6SE10SE12
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SE9SE8SE8SE6SE3SE5SE4NE3E3S3S3SW5S6CalmSW5W4W6W10W7NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic Highlands, Sandy Hook Bay, New Jersey
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Atlantic Highlands
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Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 AM EDT     5.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.84.83.31.90.6-0.2-0.40.21.52.94.14.95.14.63.52.110.2-00.51.83.24.55.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:52 AM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:02 PM EDT     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:14 PM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.7-0.6-1.7-2.3-2.5-2-1.3-0.50.61.51.81.50.9-0.1-1.2-1.9-2.2-1.9-1.2-0.50.51.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.