Saturday, May26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leonardo, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday May 26, 2018 12:22 AM EDT (04:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:22PMMoonset 4:08AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 955 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves around 2 ft early, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 955 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains off the southeastern coast into Saturday morning. A back door cold front moves through late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, then becomes nearly stationary south of the waters through memorial day. Another cold front will move through from the north on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leonardo CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260130
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
930 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will be centered well east of the mid-atlantic
coast through the holiday weekend. A cold front moves southward
across our area late Saturday night and Sunday, then stalls in
our area into Monday. A secondary cold front moves through later
Monday night into Tuesday, followed by high pressure Tuesday
night before it moves offshore during Wednesday. A warm front
may approach on Thursday followed by a cold front later Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
High pressure located over the western north atlantic will
maintain a southwest flow in our region overnight. Wind speeds
are expected to diminish and the humidity will be on the
increase. Patchy fog is possible.

Minimum temperatures are anticipated to favor the 60s.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
A hot and humid day on tap for Saturday as southwest flow
allows for a tropical airmass to build into the region
throughout the day. Meanwhile, an upper trough with several
strong shortwaves will approach during the day and move across
the region in the afternoon and evening.

Highs will top off in the mid and upper 80s, with highs around
90 along the i-95 corridor from newark to philly, and in inland
areas of the delmarva. Surface dewpoints will climb into the mid
and upper 60s in the southern poconos and northern nj, and in
the upper 60s to around 70 across southern nj, southeast pa, and
the delmarva.

As that upper trough approaches, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the mid-atlantic, and creep
their way north and east into the delaware valley and delmarva,
but the stronger thunderstorms will develop later in the
afternoon and in the evening. CAPE values will approach 2000
j kg, and the lifted index will be around -4c. 0-6km bulk shear
is only 15-20 kt, so not expecting a widespread severe weather
outbreak. However, for the southern areas, pwats will increase
to around 2" in the afternoon, and this could result in heavy
rain which could lead to urban and small stream flooding in some
spots.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Summary... Unsettled conditions at times for the second half of
the holiday weekend (especially Sunday) along with some cooling.

Potentially unsettled again for the second half of next week.

Synoptic overview... The flow pattern is advertised to become
less progressive with a closed low in the west, a trough near
the gulf coast and ridge from the midwest to the southern
plains. This should break down some as we go through early next
week, although weak steering flow keeps a system in the central
gulf coast states for awhile. A trough sliding by will allow a
cold front to sag southward across much of our area through
Sunday before it gradually weakens or dissipates. Tropical
moisture is forecast be in place ahead of the southbound cold
front, and weak surface low developing along this front may
enhance the frontal zone for a time. The continued theme in the
overall guidance shows showers storms across our area through
Sunday, then probably some drying Monday. The trough in eastern
canada and the northeast amplifies some Monday into Tuesday,
then some ridging aloft looks to slide eastward Wednesday before
a possible upper-level trough arrives for the end of the week.

The second half of next week is less certain with the details as
this will depend especially on energy associated with the gulf
coast system.

For Saturday night and Sunday... Showers and some thunderstorms
are expected to continue Saturday night despite the loss of
daytime heating, since short wave energy will be moving across
the area and will continue to be fed by high precipitable water
from the south. A front from the north will be sagging into the
far northern portions of our area late Saturday night. Some very
heavy rain may result in a local flood threat, especially as
convection may take on some training or backbuilding
characteristics. It will be a very warm and muggy night for most
areas.

There will be additional convection on Sunday especially in the
afternoon and evening as the surface cold front sags farther
southward which should provide a bit more convergence. While the
deeper tropical moisture plume may reside just to our south,
plenty of moisture in our area combined with possible slower
storm motion and training may result in a local very heavy
rain flood threat. The extent of this is of lower confidence at
this time as some dry will be trying to work in from the
northeast. Temperatures should tend to fall some during Sunday
(especially afternoon) from northeast to southwest as the front
settles southward. As this occurs, the thunder chances should
diminish across the northern areas where a more stable marine
layer should advect in and this continues Sunday night.

For Monday and Tuesday... A short wave trough sliding across the
northeast Monday will take surface low pressure southeast of
cape cod. Low pressure tracking east of hudson bay canada has a
cold front attached to it, and this front is forecast to move
through Monday night into Tuesday. While a few showers thunder
cannot be ruled out on Monday, it may end up being mostly dry as
the frontal zone works back northeastward as a warm front (low
clouds drizzle perhaps to start Monday). This should set the
stage for a much warmer Tuesday after a cooler Monday. Some
convection is possible Tuesday but this may end up depending on
the timing of the actual cold front as high pressure begins to
build southeastward from canada.

For Wednesday through Friday... A trough aloft across the gulf
coast is forecast to gradually lift north and northeastward. As
this occurs, a ridge to its north slides eastward, allowing
surface high pressure over our area to start Wednesday to shift
offshore. The center of the high should be to our northeast for
a time, resulting in a northeast to east surface flow before it
veers more from the southeast. A front is forecast to be lurking
to our south with tropical moisture residing to its south,
therefore the placement of this will be key regarding any
shower thunder chances for parts of our area. Much of this may
be held off just to our south and west as the main moisture
plume and instability axis is initially placed there. With time
though, the influence of the incoming upper-level trough and
remnant tropical system should result in increasing convective
chances Thursday and Friday. A cold front is forecast to be
arriving from the northwest during Friday, which may assist in
focusing showers thunderstorms.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... MainlyVFR with localized visibility restrictions
after 07z. Light southwest wind.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. Scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms may briefly reduced the visibility and lower
ceilings. Southwest to west wind around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday... Times of MVFR ifr conditions with
some showers and thunderstorms. Low clouds may develop from
northeast to southwest during Sunday as a marine layer moves in.

The winds may be tricky due to a front dropping into the area
from the north.

Monday and Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible at times due
to a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. MVFR ifr
ceilings may be in place Monday morning due to a marine layer.

While the winds look to be less than 10 knots they may be tricky
Monday due to a front in the vicinity, then a weak cold front
moves through Monday night into Tuesday.

Wednesday... MostlyVFR.

Marine
Sw winds 15-20 kt will diminish to 10 kt, then SW winds
increase again to 15-20 kt Saturday afternoon. Seas remain 2-4
feet on the ocean and 2 feet or less on de bay.

Showers and thunderstorms could affect the waters Saturday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night... The conditions are anticipated to be below
small craft advisory conditions with a southwest breeze ahead of
a backdoor cold front. Seas should be 4 feet or less.

Sunday and Monday... The conditions should be below small craft
advisory criteria, however as a cold front settles southward
across our area this will have an impact on the wind direction
with winds shifting to the east northeast.

Tuesday and Wednesday... The conditions should be below small
craft advisory criteria.

Rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents on Saturday. The wind is forecast to be southwest
around 10 to 15 mph with waves in the surf zone building to 3 to
4 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse iovino
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 16 mi52 min 77°F 64°F1010.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 16 mi52 min SW 11 G 15 78°F 1011.3 hPa
MHRN6 17 mi52 min SW 11 G 15
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi42 min SSW 14 G 16 64°F 59°F1011.3 hPa60°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi52 min 75°F 62°F1011.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 31 mi52 min W 12 G 17 75°F 59°F1011.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi52 min WSW 7 G 11 75°F 65°F1012 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi62 min SW 14 G 16 69°F 60°F
44091 47 mi52 min 59°F4 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi92 min SW 18 G 19 60°F 54°F5 ft1011.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ17 mi26 minSSW 810.00 miFair72°F62°F71%1012.4 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi31 minSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds77°F61°F58%1010.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi31 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds68°F63°F84%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW5SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW7SW6SW11SW12
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1 day agoW4W5NW6W5W5NW4NW7NW9NW6N9N6
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N64E7E8S9S8S5S6S6S8SW8SW6
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3CalmSE3S3W3SW5W5W9NW9NW9NW10NW12NW13W9
G16
NW8NW8W5SW4SW4SW5SW4W5

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic Highlands, Sandy Hook Bay, New Jersey
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Atlantic Highlands
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Sat -- 12:01 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:16 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:29 PM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.51.52.73.84.64.94.53.72.71.60.6-00.21.12.43.74.95.65.64.93.82.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:19 AM EDT     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:01 PM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:55 PM EDT     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2-1.6-0.80.31.21.61.61.10.1-0.8-1.6-2.1-2-1.6-10.11.31.921.80.9-0.3-1.2-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.