Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Leonardo, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:37PM Sunday November 19, 2017 1:33 AM EST (06:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 6:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 110 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 110 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. As developing low pressure passes to the north, its associated warm front will lift through the area, followed by a strong cold around daybreak. High pressure will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leonardo CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190518
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1218 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Low pressure over the ohio valley will lift to the north and
east and into southeast canada tonight, and then a strong cold
front will move across the region Sunday morning. High pressure
then builds in from the west and moves off the mid-atlantic on
Tuesday. A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night.

Low pressure develops along that front and may impact the region
on Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday, followed by low
pressure passing north of the area on Saturday.

Near term through Sunday
Complex forecast through Sunday as a strong cold front moves
through the area in the next few hours. Strong deepening surface
low in western ny pa will progress east-northeast along just
south of the saint lawrence river during the next few hours,
with an equatorward-extending cold front racing eastward through
the mid-atlantic, aided by strong pressure rises upstream.

Showers continue to develop in the pre-frontal warm sector in
the northern mid-atlantic, with widespread slab-like lift along
the cold front itself contributing to low-topped convection in
far western pa southward through the appalachians of WV western
va at this time. Given the very strong winds off the surface
(850-mb winds 50-75 kts downstream of the front), these showers
will not have a difficult time transporting these winds to the
surface, particularly with the added effects of water loading
and evaporative cooling below the cloud bases.

The hrrr is strongly indicative of two waves of stronger wind
gusts during the next few hours in the cwa. The first is
associated with the frontal band of showers moving through the
area in the 08z to 12z time frame (and perhaps with showers in
advance of this band), and the second is after cold frontal
passage, tied strongly to the 2-3 hour duration of strongest
pressure rises immediately upstream of the front. Wind advisory
looks ok for the area, though it may start a little late. Will
keep an eye on observations through the night, and may jump the
start time closer to 2 or 3 am if radar surface obs confirm.

The strongest winds will ease only slowly during the late
morning and afternoon hours, as strong boundary-layer mixing
will continue, aided by cold-air advection and increasing
insolation with time.

Meanwhile, the highest QPF looks to occur mainly north of the
mason-dixon line during the next few hours, in closer proximity
to the strongest synoptic-scale ascent. There is a noticeable
downward trend in precipitation along east of the blue ridge to
our southwest, which lends confidence in the general
distribution of precipitation accumulations expected.

Temperatures will remain steady in the pre-frontal warm sector,
though there is sharp cooling in the rural valley locations,
with high clouds unable to re-emit longwave radiation back to
the surface effectively. Guidance is handling this poorly, to
say the least, and have had to make several edits to hourly
temperatures already (with more likely to come before frontal
passage). Thereafter, temperatures will likely begin a slow fall
through the day, though increasing insolation and strong mixing
may curtail this to some degree. General forecast is strongly
weighted to hi-res 2-m temperatures, especially in the first 12
hours, where effects of clouds precipitation and urban rural
processes are handled more accurately.

Short term Sunday night
Main question tonight is the potential for some snow showers in
the poconos. With a strongly mixed boundary layer and saturation
around 900-850 mb, there are indications that snow showers will
develop periodically to the northwest, occasionally affecting
the southern poconos. Though the threat exists even this
afternoon, the best time window looks to be this evening and
tonight as the deep-layer flow becomes more northwesterly (with
potential influence from lake-effect processes). Additionally,
the main vort MAX associated with today's system will be moving
through Sunday night, which will supply additional lift and cold
air aloft to aid in the development of a shallow (nearly) dry-
adiabatic boundary layer in the post-frontal environment. Have
kept and even prolonged slight-chances or chances of snow
showers in this region, with potential for snow squalls given
the strong low-level wind field.

Meanwhile, temperatures will turn colder across the area, though
the bottom will not fall out given the continued elevated winds
(though much lighter than during the day). Current forecast is a
mix of mav met ecs mos, which are in reasonable agreement, and
features temperatures generally a few degrees below seasonal

Long term Monday through Saturday
High pressure just north of the gulf coast will build east on
Monday, and will gradually move off the mid-atlantic coast on
Tuesday. Chilly conditions on Monday with highs in the 30s up
north and in the 40s elsewhere will moderate back into the 50s
to near 60 on Tuesday as return flow sets up.

From there, low pressure develops off the southeast u.S. Coast
and lifts to the north along the coast as a cold front
approaches from the west. That front passes through the region
Tuesday night or Wednesday. Confidence is low for this
timeframe, as there is uncertainty with how far west that low
will track and how much precip will fall. For now, will follow a
blend of guidance and carry chance pops Tuesday night-

High pressure builds in from the west on Thursday, but models
are indicating another coastal low passing south and east of the
area during this time, and depending on how close it tracks,
more precip is possible for the area. Will carry slight chance
pops for southeast portions of the forecast area, but it will
take a couple of days or so before the details are ironed out
with this potential low.

Dry conditions on tap for Friday.

Low pressure passes north of the area Saturday and drags a cold
front through the region. Some snow is possible up north Friday
night, and then precip changes to rain on Saturday.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... GenerallyVFR, but potential for sub-vfr
conditions in periodic showers, especially between 06z and 12z,
in immediate advance of a strong cold front moving through the
area. Southwest winds 15 to 25 kts with gusts 30+ kts will
rapidly switch to west or west-northwest 20 to 30 kts with gusts
to 40+ kts after frontal passage. Showers may also contain
strong erratic variable wind gusts and convective turbulence.

Confidence in CIGS is well below average and in winds is
somewhat below average, especially regarding the timing of the
frontal passage.

Sunday... Rapid improvement toVFR with showers quickly exiting
the area early in the morning. Very strong west or west-
northwest winds 20 to 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts or so are
possible through the day, with the strongest winds generally in
the morning. Confidence is well above average.

Sunday night...VFR with west winds slowly diminishing to around
10 kts after midnight. Gusts to 25 kts or so possible through
the evening hours. Confidence above average.


Monday through Tuesday...VFR. West winds 10-15 kt on Monday
become S 5-10 kt Monday night, and then 10-15 kt with gusts up
to 20 kt on Tuesday. High confidence.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Potential for rain Tuesday
night Wednesday, then again on Thursday with sub-vfr conditions.

Low confidence forecast.

Gale conditions are generally occurring across the waters at
this time, with the strongest winds gusts expected to occur just
after frontal passage from about 6 am to noon. Winds 40-45 kts
are likely during this time window. Very choppy erratic seas are
likely through the day.

Showers are expected to move in from the west late tonight but
should move out quickly by mid to late morning.


Sunday night... Nw gales continue Sunday night, but may end just
after midnight on de bay.

Monday through Monday night... Nw winds gusting to 25 kt on the
ocean waters, along with 4-6 ft seas.

Tuesday through Tuesday night... Sw winds 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt
gusts on the ocean; SW winds gusting to 25 kt on de bay. Winds
diminish after midnight Tuesday night.

Wednesday... Winds and seas subside to sub-sca conditions.

Thursday... Low confidence forecast with the potential for sca
conditions on the ocean.

Tides coastal flooding
There is a potential for blow out tides on Sunday, especially
in the delaware bay and the tidal portion of the delaware river,
where strong w-nw winds will effectively drain water out of the
bay. The low tide Sunday afternoon evening seems to be the most
susceptible for low water concerns that could impact navigation
in the area.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est Sunday for paz054-055-

Nj... Wind advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est Sunday for njz001-007>010-

De... Wind advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est Sunday for dez001>004.

Md... Wind advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est Sunday for mdz008-012-015-

Marine... Gale warning until 5 am est Monday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps
tides coastal flooding... Robertson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi44 min SSW 27 G 33 60°F 59°F9 ft994.1 hPa (-4.4)55°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi49 min S 14 G 19 57°F 52°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi49 min SSW 14 G 19 58°F 1 ft53°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi44 min SSW 29 G 35 62°F 58°F11 ft995.3 hPa (-4.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ17 mi38 minSSW 9 G 2410.00 miFair60°F51°F72%995.8 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi43 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F50°F81%994.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi43 minS 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy55°F53°F93%995.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmCalmS4S4S35S3SW9S7
1 day agoW9W10W10NW11NW11NW12
2 days agoSE5SE5SE7SE8S6SW4SW8SW6--SW6W7W9

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic Highlands, Sandy Hook Bay, New Jersey
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Atlantic Highlands
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Sun -- 01:40 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:49 AM EST     5.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:17 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:10 PM EST     4.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
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Sun -- 12:57 AM EST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:57 AM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:10 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:31 PM EST     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EST     1.47 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.