Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:59PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:48 AM EST (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 4:23AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1205 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt late. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain and snow likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Snow in the evening. Rain. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..S winds around 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds around 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of snow in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds around 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1205 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through overnight, followed by high pressure building in for Thursday. Weak low pressure then impacts the tri- state area Thursday night into Friday morning, then high pressure briefly builds in Friday afternoon and night. A strong frontal system with developing low pressure will impact the region Saturday into Sunday night. High pressure then slowly builds in during Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170836
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
336 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure ridging across the area today will move offshore
tonight. Low pressure and an associated cold front will cross the
area tonight and early Friday. More high pressure will follow for
Friday night and Saturday morning. A significant low pressure system
will cross the middle atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday.

Arctic high pressure will move in for the beginning of next week.

Another storm may affect the region for the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The cold front is finally making some progress across the CWA early
this morning, now generally south of the mason-dixon line. Near and
upstream of the front, skies rapidly clear (at least initially), and
dew points begin to drop. Downstream, a residual low cloud deck is
keeping temperatures much warmer (generally around or above
freezing), and winds remain more westerly or even southwesterly.

Given that models are struggling with the progress of the front,
their temp dew point output is not verifying well, especially where
the lower clouds have persisted most of the night so far. Have
needed to make several adjustments to both fields the past few
hours, but given the poor depiction of the front's progress so far,
have very little confidence in hourly temperatures dew points the
rest of the night. Most assuredly, this low confidence also applies
to sky cover, with the low cloud deck to the south of the front
poorly modeled in general and smaller areas of low clouds to the
north not simulated well at all. Expecting an increase in high
clouds late tonight as a weak perturbation approaches the area.

Large-scale lift via differential cyclonic vorticity advection aloft
will continue to aid in the increase and lowering of cloud cover
during the day, combined with increasing low-level isentropic ascent
late. Any residual cold advection from the cold front passing
through the area early this morning will cease rather quickly, but
the increased cloud cover should prevent much surface warming. Once
again, weighted the MAX temperature forecast toward the cold (i.E.,
ecs and met mos) statistical guidance. There should be little
diurnal upswing today given the above.

No precipitation is expected through late this afternoon, though
some light snow should be on the western doorstep by early
evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
A weak midlevel perturbation will be moving through the region
tonight, and large-scale lift immediately downstream will generate
light snow for much of the night across the area. The low levels
will be dry initially, but fairly potent warm advection in
combination with some jet dynamics (via the left exit region of a
250-mb jet streak approaching the southeast coast) will be the
sufficient ingredients for the precipitation. Surface temperatures
near and east of the urban corridor will be near freezing, so there
will likely be a mix of rain and snow in portions of new jersey and
also delmarva. To the north and west, conditions look cold enough
for snow throughout the event.

The consensus QPF is generally 0.1-0.2 inches, so snow amounts of 1-
2 inches seem probable northwest of the urban corridor, with lesser
amounts southeast where surface temperatures will be at least
flirting with freezing and precipitation may begin to mix with rain.

Notably, I sided with the somewhat colder guidance (nam, rgem, cmc,
icon), as the GFS tends to be too aggressive scouring the near-
surface cold air too quickly. Confidence is on the low side, though,
since antecedent cloud cover may prevent much of a temperature fall
from today's readings (which should be above freezing southeast of
the fall line). Presumably, sublimation and wet-bulbing effects will
cool the low-level profiles sufficiently for mostly snow in the
urban corridor into adjacent portions of new jersey southeast of i-
295. However, the stout warm advection will be warming the profile
with time, so some transition to rain should be expected near the
coast and (with time) farther to the northwest. As such, kept totals
generally less than an inch southeast of i-95 (to basically nothing
near the immediate coast). Not expecting much besides rain or snow,
though there is a chance the warming aloft could precede that at the
surface, giving a small window of sleet or freezing rain in delmarva
and new jersey. Any effects should be minimal and short-lived,
though, and confidence is not high enough for inclusion in the
forecast.

The timing of the precipitation looks to be after the Thursday
evening rush and before the Friday morning rush. Combined with the
sub-advisory snow totals expected, feel there is no need for
headlines with this event at this time, though cannot completely
rule it out in later forecasts. Untreated roads will likely be snow-
covered on Friday morning, however, so some travel impacts should be
expected, especially northwest of the urban corridor.

Precipitation rapidly moves eastward Friday morning, and the
afternoon should be dry everywhere. Sky cover is expected to
diminish with time (except for the northwest cwa), and temperatures
will likely warm above freezing in most locations by afternoon. I
did keep the MAX temperature forecast on the low side of guidance,
given that snow may curtail some of the diurnal heating and cloud
cover may linger longer than currently expected.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
High pressure across the area for Friday night and early Saturday
will move away Saturday afternoon. Fair weather for these time
periods with increasing clouds Saturday. Temperatures a little below
normal with 20s Friday night and 30s (north) and low 40s (south) for
Saturday.

The big action of the long term begins later Saturday as
strengthening low pressure advances across the tn valley then across
va nj by Sunday morning. Significant moisture and dynamics will
produce abundant amounts of precipitation across the forecast area.

Overall (melted) QPF is in the 1.5 to 3.0 inch range for the
period ending 00z Monday. The 3 major op models have the greatest
qpf across cntrl nj with the ec having the greatest totals and the
canadian and gfe about 25% to 50% less. Much of what will fall
across the delaware valley and S E will be rain while the southern
poconos and NRN nj will have mostly snow. Significant totals are
expected for this (3rd) day event so while watches have not been
issued now (mainly not to confuse issues with the short near
system), we are rather confident that they will be issued later
today or tonight, at least of the N W areas. Snowfall in these areas
could easily be 6 to 10 inches thru Sunday. Other factors to
consider will be how much mixed precip (sleet or perhaps some
freezing rain) may occur Saturday afternoon and evening as the
warmer air arrives.

Behind the departing low Sunday, much colder air is ushered
southward across the region. Temperatures at dawn Sunday will be the
highs for the day and readings will fall 15 to 30 degrees by sunset,
reaching the teens (north) and 20s (s e). Wind chills will become
dangerously cold by Sunday evening and a quick freeze of standing
water is expected. Prepare now (!) for several days of dangerous
cold, large icy patches on roads (even where precip is all rain) and
significant amounts of snow the N W areas. A good reference to
prepare is : https:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi31 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 31°F 34°F1027.1 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi31 min NNW 12 G 16
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi73 min N 1 G 5.1 32°F 34°F1026.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi31 min 29°F 40°F1026.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi31 min NNW 12 G 15 29°F 37°F1027.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi31 min N 11 G 15 29°F 1027.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi31 min 28°F 41°F1026.6 hPa
BDSP1 40 mi37 min 33°F 38°F1026.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi37 min 34°F 36°F1026.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi29 min NNW 18 G 21 32°F 42°F1026.4 hPa13°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi56 minN 810.00 miFair28°F12°F51%1026.5 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi56 minN 810.00 miFair30°F16°F56%1025.8 hPa

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW43W5SW4W7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm--NW6N7NW8NW75NW7NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6N4CalmN4NW4N75NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.