Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:33PM Friday June 23, 2017 6:16 AM EDT (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 5:11AMMoonset 8:03PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 403 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Occasional gusts to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Numerous showers with isolated tstms, mainly this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms at night. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 403 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves well north this morning. A cold front approaches tonight and moves across the area Saturday. A series of weak fronts move through the area Sunday through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230951
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
551 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will track well north of our area Friday and Saturday.

An associated cold front will cross our region during Saturday as
some tropical moisture moves ahead of and along it. High pressure
will then build well to our southwest Sunday into Monday. A weak
cold front will move through our area later Monday. High pressure
will then build across the mid atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday,
before shifting offshore Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Showers with heavy rain developing from a spoke of mid-level
shortwave energy associated with the remnant low of cindy are
moving through the appalachians and into the mid-atlantic and
delmarva. These showers should enter northeast maryland,
southeast pa by the start of the morning commute, and then these
showers will spread north and east as the morning progresses.

These showers are moving into a humid and unstable airmass with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and ml mucape
values around 1000 j kg. Although there is no lightning
currently with these showers, going through this morning, there
should be enough instability for at least scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Given the abundant low level moisture
across the region with pwats between 1.7-2", rain may be heavy
at times.

Wave passes through by midday, and any showers and thunderstorms
will taper off. With the approach of another shortwave this
afternoon and early evening, conditions will become unstable enough
to potentially support strong to severe thunderstorms. Will have
pops capped at chance for now.

With SW flow tapping into a subtropical airmass, highs today should
top off in the upper 70s to low 80s north and west of i-76, and in
the mid to upper 80s across most of southern and eastern nj,
southeast pa, and the delmarva. With dewpoints in the low 70s, the
heat index will be in the low to mid 90s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Any showers and thunderstorms early will taper off in the evening.

Warm and humid conditions remain in place as the subtropical airmass
remains over the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid
70s, and dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The remnant low of cindy moves towards the appalachians this
evening, and then towards the DELMARVA prior to daybreak Saturday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move into far western zones
after midnight, and then the heaviest precip will hold off until the
pre-dawn hours. Given the abundant moisture across the region, rain
may be heavy at times, and cannot rule out localized flooding.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
A ridge of high pressure will be across the middle atlantic region
Sunday. A fair weather day is expected with temperatures right
around seasonal norms. The airmass will be much drier than both
Friday and Saturday, so it will be a good day for outdoor
activities.

A surface cold front and a slow moving upper trough will affect the
weather from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The system will not have
a great deal of moisture to work with, but the colder temperatures
aloft will help develop showers and a few tstms during the period.

Pops are only in the slight chc or low chc range attm. Temperatures
thru the period will mostly be around 5 degrees below normal for
late june. Highs will be in the mid upper 70s across the north and
close to 80 near metro philadelphia and over delmarva.

The rest of the long term looks dry with slowly moderating
temperatures and rising humidity levels. Highs will remain below
normal Wednesday and then rise to near normal for Thu fri. Most of
the models are showing high pressure across the area, slowly moving
offshore by Friday. A few showers Fri afternoon far N W are
possible according to the 00z ec.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MVFR ifr conditions will develop in shra and scattered tsra this
morning, and thenVFR conditions once those showers move north and
east of the local terminals. Another round of shra tsra possible in
the afternoon and early evening, and some storms could be strong to
possibly severe. Heavy rain is possible, and MVFR ifr conditions
possible.

Conditions dry out in the evening, and then heavy rain, scattered
thunderstorms, and ifr and lower conditions possible in the pre-dawn
hours Saturday morning.

Sw flow 5-10 kt today through tonight. Gusts to 20 kt possible this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Saturday night... Lower CIGS vsbys with showers and
tstms mostly in the morning. Conditions improving late.

Sunday Monday morning...VFR expected.

Monday afternoon thru tue... MostlyVFR. Sct showers tstms.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions through this morning. SCA conditions develop this
afternoon on the ocean with 25-30 kt gusts and 4-6 ft seas. Will
also hoist a SCA for de bay, as 25 kt gusts likely, but that would
be for this afternoon and early evening.

Sca conditions on the ocean through tonight.

One round of showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact the
waters this morning through midday, and then another round of
showers and potentially strong thunderstorms possible late this
afternoon and early this evening.

The remnant low of cindy will approach late tonight, and showers and
scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain will move into the waters
after midnight tonight and into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Saturday night... SCA conditions. Showers tstms
Saturday and Saturday evening.

Sunday Sunday night... Sub-sca conditions. Fair.

Monday tue... Sub-sca with sct showers late. Few tstms tue.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at nj ocean beaches and a low risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at de ocean today. However, even with
a low risk... The bigger diurnal difference in the tide cycle as
we approach the date of this months new moon could mean some
rapidly changing conditions.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tide levels are expected in association with the
new moon today. Based on the latest guidance, not expecting
widespread minor coastal flooding with the high tide cycle this
afternoon and evening. Will hold off on issuing a coastal flood
advisory, as tide levels should fall just short of minor flooding
thresholds.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt Saturday for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 9 pm edt this evening
for anz430-431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... O'hara
aviation... Mps o'hara
marine... Mps o'hara
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi47 min S 5.1 G 6 74°F 78°F1010.8 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi47 min SSW 7 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi47 min 77°F 70°F1010 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi47 min S 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 78°F1010.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi47 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 74°F1009.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi47 min WSW 8 G 9.9 1010.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi47 min 76°F 68°F1009.8 hPa
BDSP1 40 mi47 min 77°F 1010.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi47 min 77°F 76°F1010.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi87 min SSW 12 G 14 69°F 67°F2 ft1010.2 hPa (-1.7)68°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi24 minno data2.50 miFog/Mist69°F69°F100%1009.7 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi24 minSSW 46.00 miFog/Mist75°F72°F90%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalm5344343CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--
1 day agoCalmCalm33563W7--45--Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW54445--W7
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66NW7S85CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:40 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:15 AM EDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:35 PM EDT     7.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
20.6-0.4-0.60.42.24.15.66.46.25.13.51.90.5-0.4-0.60.42.54.76.57.77.86.95.3

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:51 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EDT     6.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:52 PM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:51 PM EDT     7.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.30.8-0.3-0.60.11.73.65.26.16.25.33.82.10.7-0.3-0.60.11.94.167.37.775.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.