Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:13PM Friday March 22, 2019 10:11 AM EDT (14:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:17PMMoonset 8:13AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 947 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Saturday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain late this morning, then chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
ANZ300 947 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves northeast along the new england coast this afternoon as it intensifies. The low moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The high moves to the south on Sunday before giving way to a cold front Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221328
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
928 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over long island will move northeast and intensify
near the gulf of maine this afternoon. Behind the low, a cold
front will cross the region later today. Low pressure departs
over the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west. The
high moves off the southeast coast on Sunday. Low pressure moves
across the region Monday, and a cold front moves through Monday
night. High pressure then returns for most of the new week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low pressure will move into the gulf of maine by this
afternoon and will intensify as an upper low with strong
shortwaves moves in from the west.

A cold front swings across the region by midday, and a tight
northwest pressure gradient develops in the afternoon.

West to northwest winds increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph.

The bulk of the heavy rain has tapered off, but unsettled
conditions over the area will keep showers in the region this
morning. As the cold front passes through, additional showers
are possible. Going into this afternoon, with the passage of
several strong shortwaves, scattered showers will develop once
again.

Across the southern poconos, temperatures are cold enough to
support snow, and snow showers continue this morning before
mixing with rain showers later today as temperatures rise into
the mid 30s. 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible in the higher
elevations of carbon and monroe counties through this morning.

With forecast temps around 50f this afternoon, resulting
afternoon instability per 12z soundings should be enough to
produce a few showers containing small hail, wind gusts up to 45
mph, and lightning.

Highs today will range from the 30s in the far northern zones,
and otherwise in the 40s to low 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Another cold front swings through the region this evening. High
pressure continues to build in from the west, but the low over
the canadian maritimes will not make much headway through the
overnight hours. As a result, can expect scattered showers, with
snow showers in the far northern zones, through the overnight.

Gusty northwest winds will continue, but should remain just
below wind advisory criteria, ranging from 20 to 30 mph with 30
to 40 mph gusts.

The low over the canadian maritimes finally lifts away late
Saturday, and high pressure continues to build in from the west.

Dry conditions on tap, but gusty northwest winds continue, until
finally subsiding late.

Sunny with highs in the 40s to low 50s, except in the 30s in the
southern poconos.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
This extended forecast period will start out with a fairly strong
cold front passage on Monday, followed by canadian high pressure for
Tuesday through Thursday. On Monday a shortwv trof is forecast to
move east into the ohio valley with moisture spreading ahead of it
across the mid-atlantic region. Both the latest GFS and ecmwf
are showing precip spreading across the area on Monday and
continuing into Monday night in association with this feature
and with the frontal passage.

Temperatures ahead of the front on Monday should be warm enough for
rain everywhere, but fairly strong cold advection behind the front
may result in precip changing to snow from north to south Monday
night. No significant snow accumulation is expected at this time.

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday look to be a bit below normal,
but may moderate to near normal again by Thursday.

Aviation 13z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR ifr conditions lifting toVFR later this morning.

Occasional MVFR conditions this afternoon in scattered showers
and isolated thunder small hail. NW winds 15-20 kt with 25-35
kt gusts.

Tonight... GenerallyVFR, but brief MVFR conditions possible in
scattered showers. Snow showers possible at krdg kabe. NW winds
15-20 kt with 25-35 kt gusts.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt with 25-35 kt gusts.

Saturday night through Sunday night...VFR conditions with winds
generally 10 kt or less.

Monday and Monday night... MVFR countdowns possible in areas of
rain or snow showers. Winds around 10 kt shifting from SW to n
on Monday.

Tuesday...VFR conditions with NE winds around 10 kt.

Marine
A gale warning remains in effect for all waters. Northwest
winds increase to 20-30 kt with 35-45 kt gusts later today
through tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday... Northwesterly gales continue for much of this
period, but wind speeds should gradually drop off late Saturday
into Saturday night.

Sunday into Monday... Winds and seas are expected to be below
small craft advisory conditions.

Monday night and Tuesday... Northeasterly winds are likely to
increase starting Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. Seas
should subsequently increase as well.

Tides coastal flooding
Guidance continues to indicate minor tidal flooding for the
morning high tide later this morning between 9 and 10 am for
middlesex, monmouth, and ocean counties. The low will continue
to slowly move away from the area through the morning hours, but
before it moves completely out of the area, easterly winds will
likely continue to push water into the northern new jersey
coastal line. Therefore we have issued a coastal flood advisory
for the next high tide for these counties.

Strong offshore flow will develop through the day Friday, which
will end the coastal flooding threat for subsequent high tides.

No flooding is not expected on the upper eastern shore of
chesapeake bay.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
njz012>014-020-026.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Frnaklin mps
near term... Franklin mps
short term... Mps
long term... Amc
aviation... Franklin mps
marine... Mps
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi54 min 41°F 44°F996.5 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi72 min NW 17 G 22
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi96 min 40°F 44°F995.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi54 min 41°F 43°F994.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi54 min 41°F 994 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi54 min 41°F 42°F993.4 hPa
BDSP1 40 mi54 min 42°F 50°F997.5 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi54 min 997 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi42 min NNW 23 G 31 41°F 42°F992.3 hPa40°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi79 minNW 910.00 miLight Rain40°F36°F86%995 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi19 minNW 13 G 219.00 miLight Rain40°F37°F89%995.8 hPa

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3E7E8E6E8E10
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NE74NE12NE11
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1 day agoCalmCalmS8S7
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----SE6
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S7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE4N4CalmNE3
2 days ago3Calm5NW835
G17
W10
G15
----CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.