Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:12PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:33 AM EDT (14:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:51AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 915 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ300 915 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure today will give way to a cold frontal passage late tonight into Friday morning. The high will build back in on Saturday, then slide offshore Sunday and Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191344
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
944 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
A dry frontal boundary will move toward the area tonight into
early Friday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control of the
weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend. A
frontal boundary is forecast to affect the area early next week,
bringing a return of unsettled weather.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Mid morning surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure
over the southeast and mid-atlantic states. This high was weakened
and shifted south of our area over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, a
cold front was located over the upper midwest, stretching
southwestward into the central plains. The cold front will approach
from the west as it moves through the eastern great lakes ohio
valley this afternoon.

Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery (chs 8-10) show a weak
shortwave trough aloft passing thru the region this morning. Other
than thin cirrus streaming across the area, this system will have no
other impacts on our sensible weather today.

The warm sector will clearly be established over the region today
with southwesterly flow continuing ahead of the cold front. High
temperatures were tweaked upward by a couple of degrees for the mid
morning estf update and reflects a warmer solution than any
guidance. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s across most of the
area, except cooler in the higher elevations of NE pa NW nj and
along the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Weak surface cold front passes through the region tonight. With
a lack of moisture and no upper level support, conditions will
be dry with its passage. Outside of some evening cirrus, skies
should clear out after midnight.

Surface high pressure reestablishes itself over the
appalachians after midnight.

Some patchy ground fog is possible prior to the passage of the
cold front. Dew points will fall behind the passage of the
front.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to around 50. Lows in the
philly metro area will be in the low 50s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Quiet weather is expected for the end of this week into the
weekend as high pressure will be in control of the weather
through the end of the week before moving offshore for Sunday
and Monday.

Ridging aloft builds across the area late this week into the
weekend, which will help keep temperatures several degrees above
normal. As the surface high and ridge aloft moves offshore
Sunday, return flow and southwest flow aloft develops. This will
help increase clouds, but no precipitation is expected through
Sunday.

As we go into Sunday, an area of low pressure is forecast to
develop near the lower mississippi valley along a frontal
boundary located across the central part of the country. It is
then expected to strengthen as it moves northward along the
frontal boundary and toward the great lakes Monday night into
Tuesday. The front is expected to move toward our area Tuesday
into Tuesday night, although there is some timing differences
between the GFS and ecmwf. The GFS pushes the front through
quicker, moving the precip through Tuesday into Tuesday night.

The ECMWF slowly moves the front through slower, keeping precip
across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For now,
we have the greatest chances for precipitation Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

Aviation 13z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr through the TAF period. Patchy ground fog with brief MVFR
vsby is possible from around 04-12z Friday.

Sw winds less than 10 kt, becoming less than 5 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Friday-Monday...VFR conditions expected. Winds may gust around
15 knots Friday, Sunday, and Monday.

Marine
Sw winds 5-10 kt, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt
this afternoon on the atlantic coastal waters. Winds shift to
the NW tonight after the passage of a cold front. Seas will
generally be around 3 ft on the coastal waters and 2 ft or less
in the delaware bay... Predominately in a SE swell of 9 or 10
seconds.

Outlook...

Friday-Monday... Conditions expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through the period.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Klein
short term... Mps
long term... Robertson
aviation... Klein robertson mps
marine... Klein robertson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi45 min WSW 5.1 G 7 57°F 63°F1025.4 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi45 min SSW 6 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi45 min 60°F 65°F1024.4 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi57 min W 2.9 G 5.1 57°F 65°F1024.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi45 min WSW 9.9 G 11 61°F 63°F1025.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi45 min WSW 9.9 G 12 59°F 1025 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi45 min 59°F 66°F1025.1 hPa
BDSP1 40 mi45 min 59°F 69°F1025.3 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi45 min 64°F 67°F1024.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi43 min WSW 9.7 G 12 60°F 65°F3 ft1024.4 hPa (+0.3)52°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi40 minSSE 310.00 miFair54°F50°F87%1024.2 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi40 minSW 710.00 miFair57°F50°F78%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5Calm3354SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----S3
1 day agoCalmCalm3NW6NW334S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN9
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NW4N3N3N5N4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:49 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:55 PM EDT     6.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.10-0.30.52.13.95.66.76.96.24.83.31.80.5-0.20.21.53.24.866.45.94.7

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EDT     6.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:25 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:11 PM EDT     6.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.30.2-0.30.21.63.45.16.46.86.35.13.62.10.7-0.101.12.74.35.66.264.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.