Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cliffwood Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:36PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 12:41 PM EST (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:21AMMoonset 8:15PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1152 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1152 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through early Wednesday followed by high pressure. A warm front will lift through on Saturday, followed by a cold front Saturday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cliffwood Beach, NJ
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location: 40.43, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211701
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1201 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west today and passes through
early Wednesday followed by high pressure. A warm front moves
north Saturday followed by a cold front Saturday night. High
pressure builds to the west Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast on track. Mainly sunny day with patchy cirrus. High
temperatures a few degrees above normal due to SW flow ahead of
approaching northern stream trough. Gusty winds this afternoon
20-30 mph, with the highest gusts along the coast due to
increasing surface pressure gradient.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Rather impressive shortwave over the gulf of mexico with
convection firing in the right rear quadrant of 100 kt jet
streak. This convection lifts rapidly across fl to off the
carolina coast this evening. Jet then strengthens to 120 kt
ahead of the sharpening of the northern stream shortwave.

Nwp, including the gefs, SREF and hrefv2 (replaced spc's sseo)
ensembles all support rain moving into nyc long island and s.

Ct before sunrise. Have raise pops significantly from previous
forecast due the observed dynamics and the consensus of the
latest nwp.

Rain will move east of the region by noon though as colder air
rushes in Wednesday afternoon with gusty NW winds and clearing
skies.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Long range models are in good agreement through fri, with
noticeable differences starting Sat as a shortwave approaching
from the northern rockies interacts with a canadian vortex near
hudson bay. This is leading to timing and amplitude differences
with the 00z ec now developing a cutoff low over new england sun
night. GFS remains open.

As such, no big changes to the previous forecast through the
end of the week, but have cut back on the extent of pops
associated with the warm FROPA on Sat as models have trended
slower and drier. Southern stream shortwave and developing sfc
low passes well S and E of the area Sat sat night as a cold
front moves through the local area. Not much moisture for the
front to work with have kept the forecast dry Sat night.

Since the upper pattern is a bit uncertain next weekend, this
offshore low will need to be watched. If the full latitude
trough amplifies more, the low would shift to the west and could
result in potential impacts.

A secondary cold front with a reinforcing shot of cold air
could bring a few showers to the area on Sun with gusty winds
developing in its wake. Vigorous shortwave in the GFS which ec
is weaker. Schc to low chc pops with this feature. Soundings
mostly support rain at this time, although could get some wet
snowflakes Sun morning N and W of nyc.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be below normal through
the period, except on Sat in the warm sector. Overnight lows
also below normal except Fri Sat nights where they'll be near
normal.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure slides further of the mid-atlantic coast today. A cold
front approaches from the west tonight.

Vfr through at least midnight. MVFR then develops at ct long
island city terminals from E to w. Low chance at ifr ct long
island terminals and very low chance city terminals. Should
stayVFR at kswf through the TAF period.

Sw winds increase to around 10-15g20-25kt by mid-late morning.

Winds diminish late this afternoon early this evening. With
gusts abating during the evening. Winds become light and
variable outside of kjfk klga overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 11 mi42 min SSW 14 G 16 54°F 46°F1019.5 hPa (-1.6)
MHRN6 15 mi42 min SSW 12 G 17
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi42 min 55°F 51°F1018.5 hPa (-1.5)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi42 min SSW 17 G 20 54°F 1019.2 hPa (-1.6)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi42 min 53°F 52°F1019.3 hPa (-1.7)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 28 mi52 min SSW 19 G 23 54°F 58°F5 ft1018.6 hPa (-1.4)41°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi42 min W 16 G 19 55°F 47°F1019.1 hPa (-1.6)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi42 min W 17 G 24 53°F 51°F1019.1 hPa (-1.9)
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi42 min SSW 18 G 23 55°F 36°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi66 min WSW 11 G 16 55°F 45°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Last
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W16
G20
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W15
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G16
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G17
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G19
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G21
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1 day
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NW27
NW26
G32
NW21
G26
NW17
G21
NW12
G16
NW14
G17
NW11
W18
G25
NW19
G24
W15
G20
W21
G28
W17
G24
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G23
NW15
G20
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G28
NW24
NW21
W17
G22
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W15
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G23
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G27
2 days
ago
S7
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G13
S12
G16
SW9
S4
G7
SW7
SW13
G17
S6
SE9
S16
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G19
SW12
G18
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G22
SW19
G23
SW22
G27
SW22
G28
SW22
G32
SW19
G29
SW24
G32
W29
G42
W22
G34
W26
G34
NW23
G29
NW29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi1.8 hrsSSW 12 G 1910.00 miFair54°F32°F43%1021 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ20 mi51 minSW 15 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F32°F40%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
G20
W16
G24
W10
G18
W15
G22
W9SW6SW5SW7SW5SW8SW7SW6SW6SW6SW6SW6S7S7SW8S6S8SW10--S12
G19
1 day agoW19
G26
W22
G33
W21
G30
W20
G27
W16
G33
W14W7W17
G23
W12
G16
W11W14
G19
W11W9W9W13
G19
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G19
W12W6W10W11W9W12
G18
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G22
W11
2 days ago--S7S12
G15
S9
G18
S7S10
G14
S7SW6SE3S4S10S11
G17
S13
G19
S9
G24
S7SW12
G17
S11
G18
SW13
G18
SW13
G22
SW16
G24
W18
G27
W17
G30
W21
G34
W22
G38

Tide / Current Tables for Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Matawan Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:15 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:17 AM EST     5.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:53 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:44 PM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.50.80.30.51.52.94.255.45.34.63.42.21.10.40.10.61.72.93.84.34.44

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM EST     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:47 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:08 AM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:26 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:48 PM EST     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:31 PM EST     1.90 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.50.21.321.60.90.3-0.4-1-1.5-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.30.71.71.81.10.5-0-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.