Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 3:11 PM   Moonset 3:54 AM

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PZZ410 1057 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 27 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Coastal waters from cape mendocino to pt. Arena ca out 10 nm - . Coastal waters from pt. St. George to cape mendocino ca out 10 nm - . Humboldt bay - . Humboldt bay bar - . Waters from cape mendocino to pt. Arena ca from 10 to 60 nm - . Waters from pt. St. George to cape mendocino ca from 10 to 60 nm - .
at 1056 pm pdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 12 nm northwest of cape mendocino to 37 nm southwest of eureka, moving northeast at 25 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
water spouts are possible along with stronger Thunderstorms - .locally higher waves - .and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots - .locally higher waves - .and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4082 12409 4080 12413 4081 12416 4080 12418 4075 12419 4072 12422 4070 12421 4069 12423 4071 12427 4061 12433 4044 12441 4039 12437 4023 12480 4061 12466 4087 12416 4076 12423 4086 12415 4085 12412 4086 12410

PZZ400 241 Pm Pdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - Winds and waves continue diminish as the sea state becomes controlled by a weak southwesterly swell. A stream of shallow coastal stratus, currently along and south of cape mendocino, will likely surge northward to bring opportunity for quickly dropping visibility tonight. Wave heights are expected to fall to 2 to 4 feet by Saturday. Northerly winds will rapidly increase early Saturday evening in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage, beginning in the southern waters before migrating north. Gale force gusts likely on Sunday across the waters, producing steep and hazardous seas through early next week.

FXUS66 KEKA 192148 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 248 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Above normal afternoon temperatures will continue across the interior valleys into early next week. A weak cold front will bring a slight chance of light rain and drizzle to the North Coast on Saturday followed by breezy northerly winds on Sunday.

DISCUSSION
Shallow layer of stratus has been swirling around offshore and over coastal areas of Mendocino and SW Humboldt today.
Webcams have not revealed much or any dense fog, yet. The northward extent of the stratus has reached Cape Town, but light northerlies have been eroding the leading edge of the northward advance and even forcing the "stratus surge" back southward. Stratus bands may form in situ over the northern waters late tonight and spread onto the North Coast by early Sat morning as a weakening front approaches.
Otherwise, variable high thin cirrus will drift over the area through the night again.

A weak front associated with a transient shortwave trough will bring a push of shallow moisture and perhaps some light rain and drizzle to Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties during the afternoon or early evening on Saturday. Otherwise, dry weather with some cooling of interior high temps are expected on Saturday. Breezy west to northwest winds are also expected across the inferior after frontal passage late in the day and evening, especially in channeled terrain and ridges where gusts to 30 mph are probable (75% chance per HRRR)
for Lake and far southern Mendocino counties.

Surface high pressure will build in quickly over the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and Sunday in the wake of the front. Breezy northerly winds are forecast to redeveloped over mostly coastal areas as surface pressure gradients tighten by early Sunday. HRRR has over a 70% probability for gusts > 40 mph over the King Range and 50% probability for coastal SW Humboldt by 5 AM Sunday.

Coarser NBM guidance indicates northerly winds ramping up during the day on Sunday (afternoon and evening) for lower elevations and coastal areas. Ensemble means indicate peak gusts from 25-32 mph with 75th to 90th percentile gusts to 40-50 mph. 75th-90th percentile gusts may be too high, but certainly within the realm of possibilities (50% chance) for wind prone points like around Pt St George and Cape Mendocino based on the NBM data.

Interior high temperatures are forecast to rebound Sun through Tue as a flat ridge aloft springs back up and offshore flow returns.
Isolated showers are possible (20% chance) over the higher terrain of Trinity County Tue afternoon and evening as a 500mb shortwave trough progresses eastward toward the PAC NW. Thunder chances are much more doubtful due to dry SW flow aloft and potential for a mid level cap. For now will add a 20% chance for showers, but hold off on adding thunderstorms at this time.

Potential for wider coverage and more frequent precipitation will increase mid to late next week, though probabilities for > 0.50 inch of rain in 24-hours for the western slopes of Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties are about 20% or less. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to cool down with probabilities for 75F or more no more than 30% for the warmest interior valleys of Mendocino and Lake. NBM means are close to normal (high in the 60's). Thus, it is shaping up to be cooler compared to the recent interior warmth. How fast it cools down and to what degree are still uncertain. Precipitation may occur and based on the ensemble guidance, amounts are most likely going to be light. Even light amounts may have minor impacts on outdoor plans, but timing and duration of rain or showers remain elusive and uncertain at this time. Stay tuned. DB

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Afternoon visible satellite reveals poorly modeled stratus fully encompassing the coast from Cape Mendocino and southward down the Mendocino coastline. The stratus surge is attempting to squeeze around the cape on an inevitable track northward. There is a high degree of uncertainty of the depth of the stratus and timing of advancement. The Bodega Bay profiler shows the depth to be shallow, in the 600-400 ft range and lowering. Have given the best estimate for impacts at ACV and CEC, with CIGs lowered per sounding and observational data. HRRR (Prob of Vis less than 1 mile) is indicating fog will be possible as well (60% along or near the coast). Southerly winds will pick up in advance of weak front on Saturday. This further complicates and emphasizes the low confidence of the forecast with the possiblility for deepening of the marine layer or disruption of fog conditions.
Stratus touched into the Ukiah valley this morning in the weak southerly flow, and there is slightly better agreement of a further north push into UKI early Saturday morning. /JJW

MARINE
Northerlies have further weakened into the afternoon to around 12 kts over the outer zones. Light and variable flow with areas of southerly return flow will continue in the inner zones tonight. A stream of shallow coastal stratus, currently along and south of Cape Mendocino, will likely surge northward to bring opportunity for quickly dropping visibility. Seas will bottom out early Saturday afternoon at 3 to 4 feet before a sharp increase in northerlies from a passing front occurs into the early evening. NBM is still indicating 80-90% probabilities of >34 kt gusts developing downwind of Cape Mendocino early Sunday morning before expanding to the northern and southern waters by Sunday afternoon. Gale Watches are up beginning Sunday. Steep, wind driven waves and a mid- period NW swell will produce seas of 12 to 14 feet from Sunday through Monday. Uncertainty remains as to how quickly the axis of elevated winds will retreat offshore before another trough complex approaches the PNW and N CA Tuesday. /JJW

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for PZZ470.

Gale Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for PZZ475.

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Cape Mendocino
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Fri -- 03:45 AM PDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:05 AM PDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:45 PM PDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:10 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:07 PM PDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Mendocino, California, Tide feet

Punta Gorda
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Fri -- 01:10 AM PDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:15 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM PDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:46 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:58 PM PDT     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:10 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:31 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:37 PM PDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:29 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Punta Gorda, California Current, knots

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