Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Park, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 4:14 AM EDT (08:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 347 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain early this morning, then rain with isolated tstms late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 347 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south today and passes across the area tonight. The low moves into new england Thursday. Low pressure tracks through the area on Friday, followed by a cold frontal passage over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for the beginning of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Park, NJ
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location: 40.44, -74.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250718
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
318 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move across our area today then into new england
tonight and Thursday. The next low pressure system moves across the
east coast during Friday, then a cold front moves through on
Saturday. High pressure builds into our region Monday before
gradually shifting just off the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low pressure over western north carolina will lift to the north and
east, and should be over the DELMARVA peninsula later this morning,
and continues its northern track towards nyc by early this evening.

Meanwhile, an upper trough over the great lakes tracks east through
the day and moves into western ny pa by this evening as well.

Deep easterly flow ahead of the low will usher abundant low level
moisture into the region. Pwats will build to 1.3", and this will be
enough moisture to result in locally heavy rain mainly during the
morning commute. 00z NAM has the bulk of the precip across the
coastal plain of nj, while the 00z rgem has the slug of heavy precip
farther west, generally over southeast pa.

Heavy rain lifts to the north later in the morning as the low lifts
to the north.

Models indicate a dry slot lifting north through the region during
the afternoon, but it is during this time that the upper trough
begins to dig into the northeast u.S. This results in scattered
showers for the afternoon and early evening. There may be enough
elevated instability for some isolated thunderstorms, mainly across
southeast nj and into the delmarva. Will go ahead and add isolated
thunderstorms for those areas, but not expecting much convection.

The rain and clouds will keep northern portions of the forecast area
relatively colder than the rest of the region, and highs will top
off in the 50s to low 60s north and west of the fall line. For
southern nj, southeast pa, and the delmarva, there should be a break
in the precip and possibly a break in the clouds that result in
warmer temps, and highs will get into the mid and upper 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Upper trough passes north of the region tonight, and several strong
shortwaves will lift through the mid-atlantic and northeast. This
will keep some showers in the region, with the best chances in
northern nj and the southern poconos. Showers taper off after
midnight as this system departs. Winds shift to the northwest, and
conditions will dry out towards daybreak Thursday.

Lows range from the 40s to low 50s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Summary... Some showers at times into the weekend, then a significant
warm-up probable starting early next week.

Synoptic overview... An upper-level trough from the plains to the
east coast initially has several strong short wave troughs embedded
within, however with time this consolidates into one main trough in
the east. This is forecast to take place through the weekend, then
strong energy rolling through the western u.S. Allows for a ridge to
build in the plains during the weekend which then shifts eastward
early next week. Due to the initial multiple short wave troughs
within the larger trough, timing can be less certain as well as the
strength of the surface features which impacts the details. The
overall pattern favors milder air overall (Sunday the coolest day),
then as we transition to an incoming ridge early next week
the development of significant warmth is probable.

For Thursday... A strong short wave trough lifts up across the
northeast with northwesterly flow in its wake across our area. The
main synoptic ascent is forecast to be to our northeast, therefore a
dry forecast is carried for during the daytime. There will be a
northwest breeze and with this downsloping especially into the
coastal plain results in mild temperatures. A period of dry air
advection should help to erode the clouds, however additional clouds
will be on the increase at night as a short wave trough rotating
around the main trough aloft approaches from the southwest. Some
showers with this may arrive into our southwestern areas late at
night.

For Friday... As the main upper-level trough becomes more
consolidated, a short wave trough tracks up its east side and across
the mid-atlantic and northeast. This feature looks to open up and
start to shear out as it tracks northeastward, however plenty of
lift with it as it takes on some initial negative tilt should
produce showers especially through early afternoon. A weak surface
low may accompany it and this may help maintain some showers into
early Friday evening. It is not out of the question that enough
instability develops Friday afternoon for some thunder, however
opted to leave it out for now. Widespread low clouds accompanying
the showers may limit the overall heating potential, therefore
leaned toward the cooler guidance for high temperatures. There
should be some improving conditions at night.

For Saturday and Sunday... The upper-level trough sharpens some
across the northeast and northern mid-atlantic region Saturday as a
ridge shifts eastward from the plains. There may be enough
instability Saturday (especially the afternoon) with strong short
wave energy glancing the area and a cold front moving through to
produce some showers, especially across the northern half of the
area. Despite the incoming upper-level trough, mild air should hang
on during Saturday then cooling arrives at night and Sunday as the
trough axis crosses our area. Sunday is expected to be dry with a
northwest breeze as high pressure starts to build in from the west.

For Monday and Tuesday... As the pattern shifts to a trough out west,
a ridge shifts eastward and this drives surface high pressure over
the mid-atlantic region Monday then just offshore on Tuesday. The
presence of the building ridge will result in warm air advection and
therefore a probable significant warm-up starting during this time
frame. Given the presence of surface high pressure with a ridge
aloft, dry conditions are forecast.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Moderate to locally heavy rain this morning results in ifr
and possibly lifr vsbys. Rain tapers off from south to north by
early afternoon, and then additional showers are possible this
afternoon. Generally ifr cigs, lifting to MVFR late this afternoon.

Cannot rule out a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly at kacy. East
winds 10-15 kt, becoming lgt vrb late this afternoon.

Tonight... Scattered showers through midnight or so. Ifr CIGS lift to
vfr after midnight. Lgt vrb winds in the evening become NW 10 kt or
less by daybreak Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR during the day, then MVFR (locally ifr) ceilings may
develop as showers arrive by late night. West-northwest winds 10-15
knots, then diminishing in the evening. Low confidence with onset of
sub-vfr conditions.

Friday... MVFR (locally ifr) with showers, then conditions should
improve toVFR especially at night.

Saturday... MostlyVFR, with a few daytime showers possible.

Sunday...VFR. Northwest winds may gust up to 25 knots, then diminish
toward late day and in the evening.

Marine
Rain and patchy fog resulting in reduced vsbys on the waters through
late morning, then scattered showers this afternoon. A few
thunderstorms are possible on the waters late this afternoon and
early this evening. On de bay, wind gusts of 25-30 kt will continue
through this morning. For the ocean, wind gusts of 25-30 kt through
this afternoon, but seas remain elevated through tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday... Small craft advisory for the atlantic coastal waters due
to elevated seas. The seas however should subside some at night.

Friday and Saturday... A small craft advisory may be needed for a
time for the atlantic coastal waters. The winds should be below
advisory criteria, however southeasterly flow ahead of a system may
be enough to build the seas to around 5 feet.

Sunday... The conditions are anticipated to be below small craft
advisory criteria, although wind gusts to around 20 knots may
occur nearshore during the day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse mps
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi45 min ESE 9.9 G 14 50°F 49°F1017.5 hPa
MHRN6 15 mi45 min ESE 12 G 17
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi45 min 54°F 49°F1016.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi45 min ESE 16 G 19 53°F 1017.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi45 min 53°F 47°F1017.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi35 min E 12 G 14 49°F 47°F1016.8 hPa48°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi45 min ESE 7 G 11 55°F 52°F1014.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi45 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 54°F 47°F1018.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi45 min E 8.9 G 11 55°F 52°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW2
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N7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ20 mi24 minE 103.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist53°F53°F100%1016.4 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi19 minE 122.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist53°F52°F96%1016.2 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi22 minVar 47.00 miLight Rain53°F53°F100%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3N33E6E7SE9SE13
G21
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G19
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G21
SE12
G21
SE7
G14
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G18
SE12SE7E5
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1 day agoNE3N5N8N834E6E6E6E7SE8
G14
SE7E8SE10E4E4E8SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN8N3CalmW3W44NW8N94NW4
G18
NW5NW11
G14
SE13SE10SE93SE6SE4CalmSE4E3CalmSW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
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Wed -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:49 AM EDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:31 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:33 PM EDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
12.13.44.55.35.554.131.90.80.10.10.92.23.54.75.45.54.83.82.61.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:05 AM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:09 PM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:51 PM EDT     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.61.61.20.6-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.2-1.1-0.80.21.31.81.71.20.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.3-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.