Monday, March19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ingram, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:32PM Monday March 19, 2018 11:55 PM EDT (03:55 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ingram , PA
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location: 40.44, -80.07     debug

Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 200056 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service pittsburgh pa
856 pm edt Mon mar 19 2018

Winter weather makes a return as low pressure passes to our
south. Snow accumulation outside of the mountains is difficult
during the day in march. Dry weather takes hold Thursday and
Friday, but all week temperatures will be below normal.

Near term through Tuesday
900pm update... Continue to make minor adjustments to the
overnight period in coordination with the latest hires model

Previous discussion...

a return of the winter kitchen sink to the region tonight into
Tuesday morning for parts of the region. Low pressure crossing
the southern appalachians and mid level confluence atop our
region ahead of a incoming cyclone will spread QPF toward
daybreak Tuesday. Forcing remains relatively weak so not a lot
of snow expected for locations where columns is cold enough. The
bigger impact would be a period of freezing rain in favored
southeast upslope regions of garrett and eastern tucker county.

Ongoing forecast of around a tenth inch of ice is on track with
latest operational runs, so will hoist a winter weather advisory
from 6z - 18z Tuesday. Until adiabatic winds can pool enough
cold air to remove the warm layer aloft which won't be too long
precip will switch over to snow.

The bigger question of the forecast is there a period of
freezing rain as far north as us 422 that would include the
pittsburgh metro region? By the time precipitation arrives in
the aforementioned region it will after daylight and given the
run of days above 50, any ice won't have a great if any
impact on road surfaces. Surface temperatures will be climbing
well into the 30s and perhaps lower 40s so any snow would be
confined to grassy surfaces if any accumulates.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
Heavy wet snow in the allegheny front Tuesday night into

quiet a turn around in the forecast with the 12z operational
runs with respect to pending snowfall late tonight into
Wednesday then Tuesday night into Wednesday. NAM went bonkers
with QPF and thus snowfall for much of the region, however given
its march and daytime accumulation is very tough, did not buy
and cut about 50 percent off its snow forecast. This allows us
wiggle room if the 00z runs flop back to a low QPF low snow
amount forecast. Of course, it would not be surprising to see a
few counties get upgraded to a winter storm warning if a band
sets up.

A two pronged attack with one surface low passing to our south
late tonight. There will be a warm layer aloft that could lead
to a short period of a wintry mix before switching to a rain
snow mix as the pocket cools. Any accumulation of ice should be
confined to parts of eastern tucker and garrett county before
switching over. A prolong period of cold advection with
northeast to easterly winds will lead to wet snow over the
lowlands. Believe omega fields are overdone due to warm
advection, which has yielded a lower QPF than most models. One
thing we don't have to worry about is being dry slotted since
mid level low will pass over the central appalachians.

The time frame for heaviest snowfall will be Tuesday night into
Wednesday especially for the higher elevations. The ensembles
have a -2 to -3 standard deviation of the u wind component
which is decent not great for significant snowfall. Given it
will be at night, and snowfall rates can overcome a warm
ground, expect most of the accumulation during this time frame
over the lower elevations. During the day Wednesday snowfall
will persist over the higher elevations given colder surface
temperatures, snow covered ground, and 1-2" per hour snow
rates. Bufr soundings support wet snow given a near isothermal
profile in the sounding. Overall storm total snow amounts are
close to the cips analog for this event which puts double digit
numbers in the mountains and a 2-4 range over lower elevations.

confidence is high enough in 8" in 24 hours of wet snow for the
higher terrain to upgrade the winter storm watch to a winter
storm warning. In addition, since this will be an elevation
dependent event, included the ridges of eastern fayette county
and higher elevation of eastern Mon and western preston county.

Elsewhere added a winer weather advisory in collaboration with
adjacent offices. We reside on the lower side of the numerical
guidance for snowfall, basically between NAM and gfs, which
aligns more with ensembles. The warning was a little tricky
since there will be a break in the snow Tuesday afternoon and
evening before the second strong wave crosses producing a bulk
of the snowfall and tried to capture that in the text ontop of
the gridded forecast.

Long term Thursday through Monday
- no sign of spring
- quiet to start - active end
- can't say we have seen the last of snow
benign weather to commence this period with high pressure
building south from the western great lakes. This will bring
cool northerly winds into the region as daytime highs will
remain in the 30s given h8 temps around -8c. Diurnal cumulus
clouds will be abundant given cold air aloft. The surface
anticyclone continues to drop slowly southeast overtop the ohio
headwaters Friday. Aloft there will be a passing shortwave
trough, which will generate passing clouds, but given bufr
soundings illustrate dry low levels, do not foresee any
measurable precipitation Friday.

Mid level heights build this weekend, however at the expense of
the warm advection, a warm front will cross the region Saturday
afternoon evening. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a
wintry mix at the onset especially in the mountains and north of
i-80 despite it beginning late afternoon evening, which is a
warmer part of the day. For now, will keep things a rain snow
mix with high pops. With the surface low track staying to our
south on several models Saturday night into Sunday, far
northern locations could stay all snow and see several inches of
snow accumulation. At this time, locations south of i-70 should
mix over to rain and stay rain for much of the event.

Confidence is not high enough for a mention in the hazardous
weather outlook per control run and ensemble spread, but as the
week GOES and we get through the mid week weather event,
messaging can start for this if needed .

With differences amongst long range guidance, this affects
text bulletins and gridded temperature plots. Mex is about 5-8
degrees warmer than ece guidance given track of weekend system.

Will side with the cooler envelope that is not fully captured
in the super blend guidance.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period as high
pressure slides east. Clouds should increase today tonight
ahead of approaching low pressure, with precipitation
beginning mainly south of pittsburgh prior to 12z. The form will
be rain initially, but some freezing rain and snow may mix in


restriction potential returns with low pressure late Mon night
thru wed.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... Winter storm warning from 5 am Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for mdz001.

Oh... Winter weather advisory from 8 pm Tuesday to 8 pm edt
Wednesday for ohz039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.

Pa... Winter weather advisory from 8 pm Tuesday to 8 pm edt
Wednesday for paz013-014-020>023-029-031-073>075.

Winter storm warning from 8 pm Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for paz076.

Wv... Winter weather advisory from 8 pm Tuesday to 8 pm edt
Wednesday for wvz001>004-012-021-509.

Winter storm warning from 5 am Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for wvz512>514.

Winter storm warning from 8 pm Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for wvz510-511.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh International Airport, PA9 mi65 minN 710.00 miOvercast40°F19°F45%1009.7 hPa
Pittsburgh - Allegheny County Airport, PA10 mi63 minNE 510.00 miFair43°F21°F42%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from PIT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN4N6NE5NE7NE7Calm3NE6CalmN9N10N9N8NE6NE6N10N7
1 day agoN4NW4W5W3W5W5W4NW3W3CalmCalmCalm4NW4NW846W8W10NW9NW6W5CalmCalm
2 days agoN5CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmNW5W5NW5N4NW3W3W3W7NW5N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.