Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Laurence Harbor, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:38PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:21 PM EST (01:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:39AMMoonset 6:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 742 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 742 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. As developing low pressure approaches from the west, its associated warm front will lift to the north this evening, and then an associated strong cold front will move across Sunday morning as the strong low passes to the north. High pressure will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurence Harbor, NJ
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location: 40.45, -74.27     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 182339
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
639 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Low pressure over the ohio valley will lift to the north and
east and into southeast canada tonight, and then a strong cold
front will move across the region Sunday morning. High pressure
then builds in from the west and moves off the mid-atlantic on
Tuesday. A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night.

Low pressure develops along that front and may impact the region
on Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday, followed by low
pressure passing north of the area on Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Update: a few adjustments to hourly temps (upward) across
delmarva and SE nj. Pops also adjusted according to recent radar
trends. Other showers will arrive over the area later this
evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds are slow to
increase this evening, so far.

An area of low pressure will move across the eastern great
lakes region and toward the northeast tonight. A strong cold
front associated with this low will approach the area overnight
tonight and toward Sunday morning. Southwest flow aloft will
continue across the area, with several short wave vorticity
impulses moving across the area. A couple rounds of showers are
expected tonight across the are. The first will exit the are
this evening as the initial short wave moves past the area. Then
a brief dry period may occur for a time this evening. However,
a second short wave will approach the area around after
midnight, leading to a second round of showers. Finally, as the
cold front approaches, the final round of showers will move into
the area toward daybreak Sunday. There is not much instability,
although the front and short wave vorticity impulse are fairly
potent. So it would not be surprising to see an isolated
lightning strike or rumble of thunder, but the chances are
pretty small so we did not include them in the forecast. Pw
values continue to be forecast to reach 1.00-1.25 inches, so
there could be some moderate, to occasionally heavy rainfall at

Another concern overnight is the increasing winds. Winds will
be increasing through the night and wind gusts of 25-35 mph are
possible through the night. It will likely not be gusty
everywhere overnight as mixing will not be very deep everywhere
during the night time period. However, as any showers move
through, and as the cold front approaches, gusts have a better
chance of mixing down. Winds have the potential to gust to
around 50 mph as the front moves through around daybreak, so we
have issued a wind advisory across the area.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The cold front pushes through the area around and shortly after
daybreak Sunday, and the rain showers will be ending as the
front moves through. The main concern for the daylight hours
Sunday will be the winds. Right as the front moves through, a
surge of wind is possible to occur, then the winds could
continue to gust 45-50 mph through the morning and into the
early afternoon hours. Therefore the wind advisory will continue
into the afternoon hours Sunday across the entire area.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Strong NW flow continues night as low pressure lifts into
eastern canada and high pressure builds into the tn valley and
gulf coast states. Winds will gust to 25-30 mph in the evening,
and will gradually diminish after midnight Sunday night. Though
precip will be over for the vast majority of the forecast area,
some lake effect snow streamers may make it into the pocono
mountains, and could result in some spots picking up 1 4" snow.

Cold night in store with lows dropping into the 20s for the
poconos and NW nj, otherwise in the low 30s for the lehigh
valley, southern nj, and the delmarva. Wind chills will range
from the teens up north to around 30.

High pressure just north of the gulf coast will build east on
Monday, and will gradually move off the mid-atlantic coast on
Tuesday. Chilly conditions on Monday with highs in the 30s up
north and in the 40s elsewhere will moderate back into the 50s
to near 60 on Tuesday as return flow sets up.

From there, low pressure develops off the southeast u.S. Coast
and lifts to the north along the coast as a cold front
approaches from the west. That front passes through the region
Tuesday night or Wednesday. Confidence is low for this
timeframe, as there is uncertainty with how far west that low
will track and how much precip will fall. For now, will follow a
blend of guidance and carry chance pops Tuesday night-

High pressure builds in from the west on Thursday, but models
are indicating another coastal low passing south and east of the
area during this time, and depending on how close it tracks,
more precip is possible for the area. Will carry slight chance
pops for southeast portions of the forecast area, but it will
take a couple of days or so before the details are ironed out
with this potential low.

Dry conditions on tap for Friday.

Low pressure passes north of the area Saturday and drags a cold
front through the region. Some snow is possible up north Friday
night, and then precip changes to rain on Saturday.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions are in place across the area this
afternoon and evening. Temporary near MVFR conditions are
possible as showers move across the area late this afternoon,
but should remainVFR through most of the evening. As showers
increase overnight, conditions are expected to lower to MVFR.

This is especially true as a cold front moves across the area
around daybreak Sunday.

Winds will increase through the night, and could gust 15-25
knots for much the night, then increase after midnight, and
especially through daybreak as the cold front moves through to
around 25-35 knots.

Sunday... MVFR conditions are expected right around daybreak as
the showers move through the area, then a return toVFR is
expected through the morning hours into the afternoon. Winds are
expected to be gusting 30-40 knots through much of the day.


Sunday night...VFR. Some flurries possible at krdg kabe. Nw
winds 15- 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10-15 kt
late. High confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. West winds 10-15 kt on Monday
become S 5-10 kt Monday night, and then 10-15 kt with gusts up
to 20 kt on Tuesday. High confidence.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Potential for rain Tuesday
night Wednesday, then again on Thursday with sub-vfr conditions.

Low confidence forecast.

A gale warning is in effect for all areas through Sunday night.

The delaware bay does not begin until 1 am, but the gale
warning for the atlantic coastal waters is already in effect.


Sunday night... Nw gales continue Sunday night, but may end just
after midnight on de bay.

Monday through Monday night... Nw winds gusting to 25 kt on the
ocean waters, along with 4-6 ft seas.

Tuesday through Tuesday night... Sw winds 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt
gusts on the ocean; SW winds gusting to 25 kt on de bay. Winds
diminish after midnight Tuesday night.

Wednesday... Winds and seas subside to sub-sca conditions.

Thursday... Low confidence forecast with the potential for sca
conditions on the ocean.

Tides coastal flooding
There is a potential for blow out tides on Sunday, especially
in the delaware bay and the tidal portion of the delaware river,
where strong w-nw winds will effectively drain water out of the
bay. The low tide Sunday afternoon evening seems to be the most
susceptible for low water concerns that could impact navigation
in the area.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est Sunday for paz054-055-

Nj... Wind advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est Sunday for njz001-007>010-

De... Wind advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est Sunday for dez001>004.

Md... Wind advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est Sunday for mdz008-012-015-

Marine... Gale warning until 5 am est Monday for anz450>455.

Gale warning from 1 am Sunday to 5 am est Monday for anz430-

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Robertson po
short term... Robertson
long term... Mps
aviation... Robertson mps
marine... Robertson mps
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi91 min SW 23 G 27 57°F 58°F7 ft1002 hPa (-1.5)48°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi51 min S 14 G 19 51°F 46°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi30 minS 710.00 miOvercast49°F44°F83%1001.4 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi25 minSE 310.00 miLight Rain49°F46°F90%1002.5 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi28 minN 04.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F43°F100%1001.1 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW7W8W6W6W4W4CalmCalmW3W5W5CalmCalmCalmS8S8S9SE6S6S4CalmCalmS4S7
1 day agoW15W19
2 days agoE6E3S5SE7SE8S7S8S7S6W10SW6SW8SW8SW11SW11SW9W16W17

Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
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Sat -- 01:27 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM EST     6.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:10 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EST     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
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Sat -- 01:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:20 AM EST     1.86 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:52 AM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:27 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:42 PM EST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:00 PM EST     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.