Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laurence Harbor, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:20PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 10:35 PM EDT (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 9:18PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 943 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Overnight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely...mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 943 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday. Low pressure will impact the area Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday through Monday night. Another area of low pressure affects the region Tuesday. High pressure builds back on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurence Harbor, NJ
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location: 40.45, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 292222
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
622 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail in the northeast through tomorrow. A
surface low currently in the southern plains will move northeast to
the ohio valley by Thursday night and off the mid-atlantic coast by
Saturday morning. High pressure will return for the close of the
weekend. Another surface low will approach the region early next
week. High pressure will return briefly by midweek.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
For the 630 pm update, a sea breeze boundary is trying to move more
inland however it is getting some resistance from a north-northwest
wind gusting up to 25 mph. This sea breeze has allowed some
cooling to take place in some areas, within about 10 miles of
the coast. Adjusted the temperature, dew point and wind grids
based on the latest observations then blended in the lamp/lav
guidance. Not a cloud in the sky currently and this should be
the case until later this evening and especially overnight as
some high level cloudiness arrives.

Otherwise, high pressure SW of hudson's bay will drift to the south
and east tonight, and the base of the high will move into the
appalachians after midnight tonight.

N-nw winds will diminish to less than 5 mph. This results in
radiational cooling that will yield temperatures dropping off fairly
quickly this evening, especially outside of the urban corridor along
i-95.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday/
The center of the high tracks east into eastern canada on Thursday,
pulling an upper level ridge onto the eastern seaboard late in
the day. Meanwhile, low pressure continues to organize and
develop over the central plains and midwest. The upper ridge
should keep precip at bay for the daytime hours, but high clouds
will lower and thicken throughout the day.

Temperatures should be just shy of normal, topping off in the mid
40s up north to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere.

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/
Long term looks wet, with potential for at least two systems
producing substantial precipitation accumulations for the
region.

The first system looks to affect the region beginning Thursday
night. Potent vort MAX in the ozarks region 00z Friday moves into
the ohio valley by 12z, acquiring a negative tilt. Impressive
difluence downstream and upper-level jet coupling from a retreating
anticyclonic jet streak in new england and a southern-stream
cyclonic jet streak nosing into the southeast will provide a
prolonged duration of strong/deep ascent along much of the eastern
seaboard. Warm-air advection precipitation should break out Thursday
night across the mid-atlantic. Residual northeast flow from the
departing surface high in southeast canada and new england should
allow a cold wedge of near-surface air to seep well south into the
cwa east of the appalachians. Mesoscale model guidance is
consistently showing a freezing rain signature in the southern
poconos Thursday night. A pronounced warm nose is present above the
near-surface cold(er) layer, with little change in the thermal
profile from Thursday night through Friday evening. Temperatures
will be flirting with the freezing mark much of this time, and
models often are too warm in such regimes, especially in the
southern poconos (it seems). There is large uncertainty
remaining, however, given the marginal cold air near the
surface. Given the expected QPF (more on that below), there is
potential for quite a bit of ice accumulation, especially on
elevated surfaces, near mount pocono and in adjacent sussex
county, nj. Then again, very little may occur at all if the
boundary layer stays on the warmer side. Instinct is telling me
that at least an advisory will be warranted for carbon, monroe,
and sussex counties during this time frame. However, plenty of
time to figure out the details, as this remains 30-60 hours out.

Regarding the rest of the area, the dynamical nature of the vort max
and the sustained southerly fetch downstream of it imply widespread
and substantial QPF are likely in the CWA Friday. A sse 50+ kt low-
level jet will advect a considerable amount of moisture (pwats well
in excess of 1 inch) into the mid-atlantic during the day Friday.

With the vort MAX approaching the region during the afternoon,
substantial differential cyclonic vorticity advection combined with
low-level isentropic lift along a pre-existing baroclinic zone
suggests widespread moderate to heavy rainfall for an 18-hour window
(generally 12z Friday to 06z Saturday) across the entire region.

There remain some discrepancies among the model guidance,
particularly regarding the degree of moist advection (the NAM being
noticeably drier) and the locations with maximum QPF (consensus
being in a corridor from SE pa to northern/central nj), but the
strength of the system and the associated lift give relatively high
confidence in 1+ inch QPF across the region, with potential for
localized 2-3 inch totals. To this point, instability looks
limited/negligible across the area, so kept thunder out of the
grids. However, some hydrologic issues may occur if the
stronger- seeming model simulations verify. Will allude to this
potential in the hwo.

Residual wraparound showers may occur in pa/nj through Saturday
morning, but the surface low should be well offshore by this point.

Winds will switch to northerly, but the southern origins of the
system suggest temperatures will fall little after system passage.

Additionally, there may be some downsloping impeding any cold air
advection that may be present.

High pressure builds in Sunday and Monday, and this period should
generally be dry. Temperatures will warm to seasonal or slightly
above seasonal values.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Monday as the next
southern-stream system advances to the east coast. The track of this
system continues to look more southwest to northeast (from the mid-
south to the ohio valley), which suggests a warmer scenario compared
to the Friday/Saturday low. Another substantial fetch of moist air
will precede the system, and the closer proximity of the warm sector
suggests a higher probability for convection. Timing/track
uncertainties remain, with the 12z GFS a noticeable flat/north
outlier compared to the cmc/ecmwf. Both of these latter models
produce high amounts of QPF across the southern CWA (given the
southward displacement of the surface low track), but there remain
discrepancies between these two models regarding the nature of the
precipitation (with the cmc providing a prolonged period of
isentropic lift along a zonally-oriented warm front, whereas the
ecmwf indicating more influence from pre-cold frontal
convection, at least in delmarva). Meanwhile, the GFS definitely
has more of a warm-sector precipitation scenario. My suspicion
is that the southern solutions make more sense, but too far out
and too much run-to-run variability to feel very confident. Did
raise pops across the region given the strong signal with
precip/timing among the model suite. As with the end-of-week
system, substantial QPF looks possible with this next low.

After a brief dry period Wednesday, models suggest another system
affecting the region by the end of next week.

Aviation /22z Wednesday through Monday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots becoming north 5 knots or less this evening, then
turning northeast by daybreak (locally light and variable). A sea
breeze however through early this evening will result in a southeast
wind around 10 knots at acy.

Thursday...VFR. A ceiling around 15000 feet will develop during the
day. Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming southeasterly.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR ceilings lowering, potential to MVFR toward
daybreak Friday as some rain arrives. East or southeast winds less
than 10 knots.

Friday and Friday night... Sub-vfr cigs/vsbys and rain likely. East
to southeast winds 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts near the coast
becoming more northerly late Friday night. Confidence average.

Saturday through Sunday night... MainlyVFR with mostly north or
northwest winds at or below 10 kts. Exception will be Saturday, with
speeds up to 20 kts (gusts up to 25 kts) possible, especially near
the coast. Confidence above average.

Monday... GenerallyVFR with winds around 10 kts becoming more
easterly. Increasing cloudiness likely. Confidence above
average.

Marine
High pressure builds through the waters tonight through Thursday. N
winds may gust to 20 kt on the ocean waters late tonight through
Thursday morning, but small craft advisories should not be
needed.

Outlook...

Friday and Friday night... Advisory-level winds/seas likely.

Gale- force gusts possible, especially off the new jersey coast.

Rain and visibility restrictions likely.

Saturday and Saturday night... Advisory winds/seas likely. A chance
of rain early on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday... Sub-sca winds expected. Seas may remain somewhat
elevated early in the day Sunday.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be gradually diminishing through the
week now that we are past the new moon, the threat of minor tidal
flooding along the nj and de atlantic coasts increases by Friday. We
currently have high tides about 0.5 feet above the astronomical
tide. We expect this to continue through Thursday. Beginning
Thursday night, a low pressure system will bring a prolonged period
of onshore flow, further increasing the surge. The tide of most
concern is still the high tide Friday evening and Friday night,
particularly along the northern and central new jersey shore. By
this tide cycle, it will take a surge of 0.8 to 1.0 feet to reach
minor flooding thresholds, which is likely. However, not sure yet if
we will have another 0.3 feet surge to reach advisory thresholds.

The exact magnitude of the surge will be dependent on how quickly
the onshore flow develops and how strong it will be by Friday. Etss
shows water levels at lewes and sandy hook touching minor flooding
thresholds with the high tide cycles tonight and Thursday night.

This is unlikely though as with the expected wind direction, we
should not see a surge any higher than what we currently have at
least through Thursday night.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Gorse/mps
short term... Mps
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms/gorse
marine... Cms/mps
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 14 mi47 min NNW 15 G 20
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi47 min N 9.9 G 15 47°F 43°F1021.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi47 min 48°F 44°F1022.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi47 min NNW 9.9 G 13 48°F 1022.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi47 min 48°F 42°F1022.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi105 min N 5.8 G 5.8 47°F 42°F3 ft1021.5 hPa (+3.5)35°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi47 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 50°F 44°F1023.3 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi47 min 13 G 17 44°F 41°F1022.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi59 min 51°F 44°F1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi44 minN 1610.00 miA Few Clouds48°F23°F37%1022.8 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi39 minNNW 910.00 miFair48°F25°F41%1023.2 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi42 minN 8 G 1710.00 miFair47°F24°F41%1023 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N6N5N4N9N15N9N14
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1 day agoNE4NE4NE3NE4N7E4N9N7NE4NE6NE6NE6NE7N8NW6N4NE11NE7N5N12NE8N11N8NE6
2 days agoE6NE6NE6NE7NE6NE5NE5N5N54CalmN6NE5CalmCalmCalmW8SW6SW7W8SW5W4CalmN6

Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
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Wed -- 03:52 AM EDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:46 AM EDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:06 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:05 PM EDT     6.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.620.6-0.5-0.8-0.21.43.34.95.86.15.442.40.8-0.3-0.9-0.4134.866.46.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:56 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:25 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     2.53 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:17 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     2.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.9-1.6-1.2-0.50.82.22.51.80.8-0-0.8-1.5-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.70.41.92.62.11.10.2-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.