Wednesday, August23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sayreville, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 4:19 AM EDT (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 348 Am Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers early this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 348 Am Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front exits to the east this morning, followed by canadian high pressure building into the region through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sayreville , NJ
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location: 40.48, -74.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230746
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
346 am edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly cross our region through the morning
hours before moving off shore late today. High pressure is then
expected to build towards the northeastern u.S. And remain over
our region into early next week. A low pressure system off the
east coast could affect our weather mid week next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 3 am edt, the cold front is on the door step of SE and e
central pa. It has been making steady progress over the last 6
hours. Based on the observed trends, expect it to move into our
region within the next hour, and into the i-95 corridor by 6 am.

It will then likely slow its progress east thanks to increased
daytime mixing and may linger on the coastal plains (especially
southern delmarva) through mid day. Adjusted pops to keep a
mention of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of where we
expect the front to be. Though shower activity has mostly
diminished for now, expect to see some additional development
ahead of the front near or after sunrise (though do not expect
as widespread coverage as what we saw overnight).

Mos guidance doesn't appear to be handling the front and the
effect on highs very well, so went with a blend of operational
models which show below normal highs along and west of the fall
line. Even for the eastern coastal plains which may stay in the
warm sector until just before peak heating, clouds could limit
highs through the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Clearing skies and cold air advection will promote below normal
temperatures across the region. The one question will be if we
will see any fog development overnight. At this point, have not
mentioned it in the forecast as we should also see considerable
dry air advection behind the front.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
500 mb: a -2sd trough begins the long term period in the great
lakes region, then weakens slightly as it moves into the
northeast Friday- Monday. Thereafter, we will monitor the
northeastward progress of what should be a split flow low of
tropical origins, having moved ashore along the gulf coast by
early next week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages Thursday... Near or slightly
below normal, then 2 to 6 degrees below normal daily Friday-
Tuesday.

Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of 12z 22 GFS nam MOS was used
Wednesday night-Thursday night, then the 12z 22 GFS mexmos was
applied Friday and thereafter the 15z 22 wpc d4-8 gridded
elements of MAX min t, 12 hr pop 6 hrly dew wind sky.

Thursday... Scattered light showers possible late Thursday in e
pa with considerable afternoon cloudiness.

Friday-Monday... High pressure shifts southeastward into the
great lakes Thursday through Saturday,then eastward into
southeastern canada northeast u.S. Sunday and Monday. This
expansive high will control our regional weather pattern across
the mid atlantic during this time. The trough aloft could result
in a shower north of i-78 Friday afternoon and there should be
considerable cloudiness at that time. Otherwise, for now, good
weather is predicted.

Tuesday... WAA overrunning clouds, if not rain, from a potential
tropical remnant moving northeastward from the gulf coast.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Once showers and low clouds move off shore later this morning,
expect mostlyVFR conditions for the remainder of the taf
period.

A cold front will be moving through the region between 09 and
18z. Behind this cold front, expect northwesterly winds around
10kt with some higher gusts especially just behind the front.

After 00z, wind speeds should diminish below 10kt.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR. Generally light winds from the n
or nw, possibly becoming n-ne on Saturday and Sunday. Small
chance of a light shower vicinity kabe kttn krdg Thursday
afternoon and Friday afternoon.

Marine
Winds have dropped below 25 kt on the delaware bay, so the small
craft advisory has been cancelled for the bay. On the atlantic
coastal waters, waves and winds are diminishing, but there are
still some locations reporting SCA conditions, so will keep the
sca going for now. Once the winds and waves diminish this
morning, expect sub-sca conditions for the remainder of today
and tonight. For locations that still have southwesterly winds,
expect a wind shift to northwesterly by mid day as a cold front
moves through.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday... Winds and seas below SCA criteria.

Sunday... For no SCA headline but chance that northeast flow
will increase and cause hazardous seas to develop along the S nj
and de coasts Sunday (5 feet).

Rip currents...

Wednesday... At this point we are forecasting a low risk of rip
currents today as earlier elevated seas are diminishing quickly.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag johnson
marine... Drag johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 15 mi49 min SW 6 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 16 mi49 min 73°F 76°F1007.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi49 min SW 11 G 13 74°F 80°F1007.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 20 mi49 min WSW 9.9 G 11 1008.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi49 min 74°F 76°F1007.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 32 mi49 min S 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 78°F1008.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi89 min SW 16 G 19 74°F 75°F5 ft1007.4 hPa (-1.7)72°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 39 mi49 min WSW 8 G 13 74°F 75°F1007.4 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 39 mi49 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 78°F1008.2 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ19 mi26 minS 38.00 miA Few Clouds72°F72°F100%1007.2 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi28 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F72°F94%1007.5 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ22 mi44 minSW 310.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1007.4 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi23 minSW 610.00 miOvercast72°F71°F97%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW5SW5SW8SW11SW11
G21
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S7SW9SW8SW7
1 day agoCalmSW4SW4SW3W5W6W10SW7SW8SW7SW8SW5S8S8S11S11SW12SW8S10SW9SW7SW8SW5SW7
2 days agoW5W6W11W8NW11NW9NW10NW11N11
G18
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NW6W6W3W6W8W6CalmSW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sayreville, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Sayreville
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Wed -- 04:07 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:53 AM EDT     6.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:07 PM EDT     6.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.32.71.2-0-0.6-0.21.33.14.86.16.55.94.73.21.80.5-0.2-01.33.14.86.16.66.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:43 AM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:08 PM EDT     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:49 PM EDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-1.7-1.5-1.2-0.50.922.11.710.1-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.70.51.92.31.810.2-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.