Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

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Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 8:23PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ273 Expires:201905290300;;628277 Fzus71 Kbox 290157 Mwsbox Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Boston/norton Ma 957 Pm Edt Tue May 28 2019 Anz237-256-273-290300- 957 Pm Edt Tue May 28 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Block island sound... Coastal waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard extending out to 20 nm south of block island... Ocean waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard from 25 to 40 nm offshore... At 956 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a cluster of Thunderstorms over eastern long island, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent lightning. This Thunderstorm was located 9 nm southeast of dering harbor, moving east at 35 knots. Locations impacted include... The coastal waters southeast of block island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...briefly rough seas and lightning strikes. Consider heading for safe harbor until this storm passes. Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible and keep away from ungrounded metal objects. && lat...lon 4048 7141 4050 7142 4107 7186 4111 7186 4118 7116 4049 7130 4047 7136
ANZ200 1119 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low clouds and fog along with light winds will persist through early Thursday. Some improvement during Thursday prior to a sweeping cold front with showers and Thunderstorms along and ahead. High pressure and westerly winds for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191417
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1017 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
A few showers remain possible today into early Thursday, but the
majority of this time period should feature dry weather. A more
potent storm system late Thursday into early Friday with
numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms that may
contain locally heavy rainfall. Dry and seasonable weather
returns for the weekend, then summer warmth for early next week
with a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
approaches from the west.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

mid-morning satellite imagery showing breaks in the cloud cover over
interior southern new england. Expecting breaks in the cloud
cover over this area thru the afternoon. However, stratus fog
over east coastal ma and the CAPE islands will likely be
tougher to break. This is due to the stratus deck extending
well offshore accompanied by an onshore flow. Visibility has
continued to improve as areas of fog lift and dissipate.

However the offshore stratus deck may re-introduce fog near the
shoreline at times today.

Not much by way of forcing for convection today, however the warmer
interior should allow for surface-based CAPE up to a few hundred
j kg, and pwats gradually increasing above 1.5". This will allow for
a few showers to develop, and brief heavy rainfall can't be ruled
out. Current forecast pops reflect this thinking. The marine-
influenced shoreline will minimize shower potential in that area.

Temps will have marine influence nearshore this afternoon, with
highs in the 60s to low 70s. Over the interior anticipating highs in
the 70s, with some locales nearing 80.

Previous discussion:
dependency on erosion of low clouds and fog as well as surface winds,
whether more E onshore, as to where the environment can destabilize
within the continental-tropical airmass yielding widely scattered
showers, the additional potential of heavy downpours given slow
steering motions. Airmass generated as there is seemingly not
much synoptic support nor lift, higher pops focused W where
thetae will be on the rise in more favorable regions of surface
- h85 lapse rates, overnight mid-level dry air and subsidence
behind yesterdays weak wave low shifting e.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight ...

widely scattered shower activity continues, however exactly where
is left to be determined. Chance pops for all of S new england given
uncertainty however noting height falls across the region, a diffuse
warm frontal boundary beginning to lift back N along with thetae
continental-tropical airmass. Still an absence of lift and synoptic
forcing which resides further W across the oh river valley. Little
airmass change with some boundary layer cooling and continued onshore
flow, expecting low clouds and fog to spread back towards the interior
if not having persisted throughout the day. Lows around the low 60s.

Thursday ...

return of widespread rains with embedded heavier showers and thunder-
storms, the concern that there could be a localized area of exceptionally
heavier rain contributing to flooding. Digging trof axis with accompanying
synoptics and mid-level energy above a surface-reflection cold front.

High thetae continental-tropical airmass well in place with precipitable
waters to 2-inches ahead of a surface low deepening to 995 mb (atypical
for mid june). Localized convergence ahead of the front with instability
and freezing level heights 13-14 kft beneath mid-level ascent and
h3 jet streak, the possibility for deep-layer ascent and locally
heavy rainfall. Convective allowing models signaling some appreciable
rainfall amounts over central portions of new england. Wpc excessive
rainfall outlook with a slight chance for flash flooding. An eye
on the steering-level flow. No certainty just yet as to exactly where
impacts will be felt. Morphology dependent. Notably the 19.0z gfs
is a faster solution compared to a lot of other guidance. Could
end up mostly dry Thursday under the continued influence of marine
air, possibly including low clouds and fog. Higher confidence
s E whereas out towards the ct river valley has a better chance
of destabilizing and seeing outcomes if supportive synoptics are
there. Preference to href 3-hour probability match mean. Not so
much focused on actual progged rainfall amounts but rather the
probability areas.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* showers and a few embedded thunderstorms Thursday night with a
low risk for flooding mainly across western and northern ma
* lingering showers possible Friday morning but mainly dry weather
by afternoon
* dry seasonable this weekend with Sun being the warmer of the days
* warmer with summer-like temps early next week with the risk for a
few showers t-storms but that majority of the time will be dry
details...

Thursday night...

a fairly strong low pressure system for late june approximately
995 mb will track across southern new england Thursday night.

This combined with pwats around 2 inches, some elevated
instability, and a low level convergence zone will result in
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms with localized
torrential rainfall possible. There remains uncertainty as to
where the axis of heaviest rain localized flash flood threat
will setup as we will discuss below.

Most of the guidance suggests that the risk for localized flash
flooding should be to the west and north of our region, where better
low level convergence forcing is depicted. However, we have to be
careful that mesoscale processes do not push the front further
south than modeled. This would place western and northern ma in
the risk for localized flash flooding, since activity may train
along the moving boundary.

So in an nutshell... Current guidance suggests the main flash flood
threat will be west and north of our region.

Nonetheless... Mesoscale processes could shift the boundary
further south putting our western and northern ma zones at risk.

Something will have to watch closely over the next 24 to 36
hours.

Friday...

some lingering showers possible Friday morning, but most of the
guidance suggests northwest flow behind departing low pressure.

Should result in mainly dry weather by afternoon. High temperatures
should top out mainly in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday...

a closed low over the canadian maritimes will result in
dry seasonable weather for the weekend. It will be a bit breezy sat,
but overall a great start to the weekend with highs mainly in the
70s. The closed low lift further north on Sun allowing for a
warming trend to begin with many locations seeing highs of 80+.

Humidity levels will remain comfortable so a really nice weekend is
in the cards.

Monday and Tuesday...

upper level ridge begins to flex its muscles allowing for rising
height fields summer-like warmth to finally make it into southern
new england by next Mon and tue. Highs will probably be well up
into the 80s to perhaps near 90. The majority of the time will
feature dry weather, but a few showers t-storms will be possible
sometime later Mon Tue as moisture and instability increase out
ahead of a cold front.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Today ...

ifr-MVFR lifting towardsVFR W to E thru the afternoon.

However, some of the immediate coastal locations especially the
cape and islands may remain or hover around MVFR-ifr as low
clouds and fog flirt with the coast.

Tonight ...

ifr-lifr filtering back in across the interior with continued
light winds and spotty shra activity. Lowest conditions along
the coast.

Thursday ...

winds shifting more s, could be a situation in where ifr-lifr
conditions erode S to N rather than W to e. Towards the latter-
half, the threat of widespread ra with embedded +ra and possible
tsra out across interior new england. With any activity could
see brief lower conditions.

Kbos terminal...

ifr stratus lingers thru midday. Conditions gradually improve
to MVFRVFR during the afternoon.

Kbdl terminal...

MVFR thru midday, which should improve toVFR for the afternoon.

Monitoring for spotty shra activity possible by afternoon, but
the bulk of the activity should be northwest of the terminal.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR-MVFR, with local ifr possible.

Shra, isolated tsra, patchy br.

Friday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Friday night through Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today thru Thursday...

overall quiet boating weather with light winds and benign seas
around 2 to 4 feet. However low clouds and fog will be an issue
right on through Thursday morning. It may not be until later
Thursday with strong S winds that lower conditions erode n.

Visibility around 1 to 3 nm.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday night through Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Frank sipprell nmb
short term... Sipprell
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank sipprell nmb
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi74 min 61°F3 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi86 min NE 4.1 G 7 64°F 66°F1012.2 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 71 mi64 min E 5.8 G 7.8 65°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi21 minE 410.00 miOvercast67°F62°F84%1012.3 hPa

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Last 24hrSE8SE7E7SE8SE9SE8E5E5E5E7E7E7NE5NE7N6N8N7NE8N5N9N7NE8E6E4
1 day agoN64N5NE5SE5SE4CalmS3SW4S3SW4S3S6S3S6S7CalmE3CalmSE3S3SE3SE8SE8
2 days agoS13SW12S11S12S12S12S13S9SW6SW7SW8SW10W11W11W10W9W6NW6NW8NW10N10N9NW5N8

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
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Wed -- 03:59 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:42 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:46 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:00 PM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.30.60.20.10.20.71.52.22.82.92.51.91.20.70.30.30.50.91.72.53.13.43.1

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts (2)
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No Man's Land
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:37 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.20.60.20.10.30.71.52.32.932.61.91.20.60.20.20.511.72.53.23.53.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.