Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 7:38PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:37 AM EDT (06:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 3:43AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ273 1220 Pm Edt Mon Apr 16 2018
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Block island sound... Coastal waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard extending out to 20 nm south of block island... Ocean waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard from 25 to 40 nm offshore... Rhode island sound... At 1217 pm edt, doppler radar indicated scattered Thunderstorms, capable of producing brief heavy downpours and winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 12 nm east of dering harbor to 50 nm south-southwest of block island, moving northeast at 35 knots. Locations impacted include... The coastal waters southeast of block island, watch hill, point judith light, the coastal waters west of block island and block island sound. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...briefly rough seas and lightning strikes. Consider heading for safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4107 7186 4126 7187 4131 7187 4133 7171 4137 7157 4138 7151 4136 7148 4139 7147 4140 7142 4138 7139 4075 7107 4048 7134 4047 7138
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure will move up the eastern seaboard late tonight and Wednesday bringing areas of rain and isolated Thunderstorms, then move to the gulf of maine by midday Thursday. Another low will across the waters Saturday morning. High pressure will build in from the west late Saturday and Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 250217
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1017 pm edt Tue apr 24 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring a
soaking wind swept rain to the region very late tonight and
Wednesday with localized heavy downpours. This may result in
some brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding. Other than a
few brief showers possible, mainly dry weather follows Thursday
through Saturday along with seasonably mild temperatures. A
brief cool down expected on Sunday, but this will be short lived
as unseasonably warm temperatures are possible by the middle of
next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
955 pm update...

temperatures have been very slowly decreasing hours while
dewpoints have slowly increased as seen on surface observation
trends since 22z. Still noting rather wide t TD trends, though
they are lower across the immediate S coast and especially on
the islands from the 01z observations, down to 3 degrees at
kack.

Weak ridging extending westward from high pressure SE of nova
scotia keeping precip at bay this evening with the continued dry
airmass, though noting reports of -ra at kjfk at 01z.

With mainly cloudy skies across the region, along with winds
becoming generally e-se, should see temps continue to fall
slowly overnight.

Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current, but
not a whole lot of changes from the previous update.

Previous discussion...

model trends have slowed the timing just slightly for the onset
of the warm advection rainfall. This is due to such a dry
airmass in the mid-levels (700-800mb). Bufkit soundings moisten
the profile out west by 06z and over the east around 10z. Thus
went ahead and slowed the timing. Aside, expect clouds to
thicken and lower during the overnight hours before the
precipitation begins to fall. Anticipate showers to start due
to isentropic lift and in the WAA pattern. Heavier precip will
fall by 09-12z from west to east towards the morning hours.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Wednesday into Wednesday night...

*** heavy rainfall and isolated thunder for Wednesday ***
southern stream surface low will approach the region on Wednesday as
northern stream trough swings into the area from southern
canada. This surface low will move across the region, allowing
for the southern half of sne to become warm sectored. This upper
level trough will continue to dig and go negatively tiled
pushing the surface low up into the gulf of maine by Thursday
morning.

Rainfall...

steady rainfall will stream into the region by Wednesday morning as
pwat values increase to 1.3 inches, 1-2 std above normal. Associated
with this system, strong LLJ nearing 3 std above normal will allow
for strong moisture transport into the region. Right now appears
that widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall will occur through Wednesday
night. Think the highest amounts will occur across the worcester
hills and the east slope of the berks where upslope flow will help
create a bit more lift. Cannot rule out the potential for 2+
inches in that region, which is indicated by the arw. Still with
this much rainfall, appears the the main stem rivers will
remain in their banks per nerfc's forecast and mmefs. Still, we
will have to watch some of the flashy streams. Right now believe
that urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threat.

Precip will come to an end by late Wednesday into the overnight
hours as main jet lifts farther north. Models also show some
drying into the mid to upper levels which could result in
showery weather towards Thursday morning.

Wind...

as mentioned before, strong LLJ increases during the day on
Wednesday reaching close to 3 std above normal. In fact, 925mb winds
increase between 50-60 kts. Believe that most of this wind will
remain elevated as soundings show a strong inversion across the
area. However, could see some mixing near the southeast coastal
plain where the potential for thunder could bring down a few strong
winds gusts. Also appears to be a narrow window where lapse rates
may be steep enough. Believe that we could see somewhere near 25-35
mph across the southeast coastal plain. Will hold off in any adv for
this time as confidence is not that high.

Thunder...

a low risk for thunder during the day on Wednesday as we warm
sector just a bit by the afternoon hours. Models indicate that
showalters drop below 0 and there is some elevated CAPE nearing
a few hundred joules. Like the timing of the SPC href mu cape
so tried to incorporate that into the forecast. Biggest risk
would be heavy rainfall and some gusty winds within any
thunderstorm.

Fog...

as the system begins to wind down late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, we may have to watch for the potential for fog. High
dewpoint airmass will still be over the region Wednesday night and
with some drying in the mid-levels, low levels appear to remain
saturated. Winds also appears to be light. So aside from some
showers moving across the region, may have to watch for patchy dense
fog, especially across the south coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* other than a few possible brief showers mainly dry and seasonable
thu Fri sat
* dry but noticeably cooler and blustery sun
* moderating temps Monday and likely in the 70s Tue & wed!!!
details...

Thursday...

moist southern stream trough moving offshore around daybreak
followed by a drying trend through the morning and especially the
afternoon. The only wildcard will be a potent northern stream short
wave that moves across ny state into vt nh during the afternoon.

Cold temps aloft (-20c at h5) combined with cyclonic flow will yield
a risk for a few afternoon showers. However given the column dries
significantly any shower threat will likely be confined to northern
ma along the nh border where greatest moisture is available.

Otherwise mainly dry weather prevails much of the afternoon with at
least partial sunshine especially across ct ri and southeast ma with
more clouds over northern ma. Seasonably mild with highs in the 60s,
cooler along the south coast given southwest winds off the cool
ocean waters. It will be somewhat breezy with wsw winds 15-20 mph
gusting up to 25 mph.

Friday and Saturday...

Friday's forecast has the most uncertainty as southern stream short
wave trough approaches from the southwest. This trough will be in
the process of deamplifying. So despite deep layer moisture
associated with this trough, forcing for ascent will be on a
downward trend. Thus not expecting a washout but can't rule out
scattered showers. Seasonably mild with highs once again in the 60s
except cooler along the south coast with SW winds off the cooler
ocean.

As for sat, vigorous northern stream trough approaches from the
northwest along with attending surface cold front. However limiting
factor for rainfall is lack of deep layer moisture. Thus only
expecting risk of a few showers with most locations possibly
remaining dry. Mild once again with highs in the 60s, 50s south
coast.

Sunday...

dry weather but noticeably cooler and blustery behind frontal
passage Sat night into Sunday with 850 temps down to about -2c (1
standard deviation cooler than climo). This will only support highs
in the 50s but will feel cooler given blustery wnw winds.

Monday and Tuesday...

deep mid level trough moves offshore with height rises and a warming
trend developing as east coast ridging commences toward mid week.

Dry weather much of this period with Monday the transition day, a
cool morning giving way to a mild afternoon. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance support highs in the 70s Tue and wed. Normal high
is 60-65.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... Moderate to high confidence.

Overnight... Expect mainlyVFR. Winds will shift to the e-se
between 06z and 09z.

Wednesday... MVFR lowering to ifr, moving in from SW to ne
generally between 10z and 14z. Rain will quickly overspread the
region as winds remain e-se. Ifr-lifr conditions possible
during the late morning into the afternoon with +ra and isolated
thunder. Low risk for 35 kt gusts across the southeast coastal
plain. Otherwise strong llws through much of the day.

Wednesday night... Ifr with possible lifr across the area.

Improving to MVFR towards dawn on Thursday. +ra remains trending
towards showery weather after midnight. Could be low vsbys along
the south coast in fog through much of the night.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. May get the first part
of the morning rush through inVFR, albeit lowering cigs.

However, E to SE wind accompanied by rain likely keep CIGS low
late morning into Wed night. Low risk for tsra after 21z.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Morning rush could be
impacted with +ra.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ... Moderate to high
Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Friday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight
chance shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra.

Saturday night:VFR.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ...

tonight... High confidence. Approach surface low will switch
winds to the ese and gusts to near 25kts. Seas will build as a
response resulting in sca.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Moderate confidence.

Small craft advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt and a low
risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening across the
southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain
showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to 3
nm.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ... Moderate to high
Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.

Equipment
The NOAA weather radio transmitter serving providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving hyannis is back in service.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 9 pm edt Wednesday for
anz231-232.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 9 pm edt Wednesday for
anz233-234.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm to 8 pm edt Wednesday for
anz230.

Small craft advisory from 9 am to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
anz236.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Wednesday to 9 am edt Thursday
for anz235-237-254.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 9 am edt Thursday
for anz250-251.

Small craft advisory from 3 am Wednesday to 9 am edt Thursday
for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Nocera dunten
near term... Evt thompson
short term... Dunten
long term... Nocera
aviation... Dunten evt thompson
marine... Dunten evt
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi54 min 44°F3 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi55 min SE 7 G 15 49°F 50°F1023.7 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 66 mi37 min SE 14 G 15 48°F 1022.7 hPa (-2.9)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 69 mi47 min SE 14 G 16 49°F 45°F1 ft1023.2 hPa (-2.7)49°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi44 minSE 1210.00 miA Few Clouds48°F46°F96%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S4CalmS4S5S8S8S8S9S10S10S11S11S11SE9SE7SE7SE5SE6E8SE10SE12SE12
1 day agoSW7W6W5CalmN9N12N10N10N8N7NE8NE9NE9
G16
E8SE8SE7S5S4S5S5S6S3SW5S5
2 days agoN9N8N7NW6NW6NW6NW9NW10NW7NW84SW14SW10SW10SW9SW4S4S5S6SW6SW5SW7SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
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Wed -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:30 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:00 PM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:47 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.91.72.5332.51.91.20.60.2-00.10.51.32.22.93.12.92.31.60.90.4-0

Tide / Current Tables for Nomans Land, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Nomans Land
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:21 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:34 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:42 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.91.82.63.132.61.91.20.60.30.10.10.41.22.233.332.41.50.80.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.