Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday June 25, 2017 4:53 AM EDT (08:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
ANZ273 1017 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
.line of strong Thunderstorms over the waters... Areas affected include... Ocean waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard from 25 to 40 nm offshore... At 1016 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a line of strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 44 miles southeast of buoy 44097 southeast of block island to 35 miles south of the coastal waters southeast of block island...moving north at 30 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will remain over mainly open waters. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Expect wind gusts to around 30 knots...briefly rough seas...and lightning strikes. Consider heading for safe harbor or remaining below deck until this storm passes. Frequent lightning was occurring with this storm. Head to safe harbor...or stay below deck if possible and keep away from ungrounded metal objects. && lat...lon 4076 7161 4094 7062 4093 7060 4061 7046 4059 7084 4047 7140
ANZ200 349 Am Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. SW winds will remain breezy with gusts upwards of 20 kts through Tuesday with fair weather prior to a cold front sweeping the waters Tuesday night with showers. But winds are quickly back to being southwesterly and breezy as high pressure settles s/e of the waters through the end of the week into the weekend as storm centers track n/e across the E great lakes region. Additional wet-weather chances during this time frame. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 250753
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
353 am edt Sun jun 25 2017

Synopsis
Daytime scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will be the
story for today and again Monday. Another upper level disturbance
may bring a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday. Then
a warming trend begins for the latter half of the week with a
return to summer heat and humidity by Friday. A warm front may
bring some showers Thursday with more showers and thunderstorms
possible Friday and Saturday. A backdoor front may drop south
into the region Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Into this morning...

last of the showers and cloud decks pushing N E through the mean
wind profile. Should see conditions clear if not already towards
sunrise. The clouds, acting as a blanket, have limited temperatures
from dropping overnight. As we edge towards sunrise, will observe
lows down around the upper 50s to low 60s.

Today...

scattered showers and possible thunderstorms with breezy SW winds.

Cyclonic flow and attendant elongating vortmax energy through the
mid-latitude long-wave trough pattern yields ascent upon available
moisture. Within an environment of favorable lapse rates and deep
boundary layer mixing, the better of which is N W beneath a more
favorable h5 cold pool, diurnal forcing yields scattered to broken
cumulus along with the wet-weather activity. Emphasis along the high
terrain given the low-level wind profile and subsequent convergent
forcing. With the deep boundary layer mixing, instability potential
up to 500 j kg fuels possible thunderstorms, while allowing the mix-
down of faster momentum and drier air. Likely will over-achieve on
highs and thus leaned warmest of guidance, around the low-mid 80s.

Dewpoints likely to drop off into the upper 40s to low 50s across
the interior netting less humid, more comfortable conditions. Will
be breezy out of the SW with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Some hints
per high-res guidance of the possibility of an immediate onshore sea-
breeze, but feel the SW flow will be strong enough to keep it off-
shore.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday night
Tonight...

turning quiet. Diurnal forcing with daytime heating concludes and so
does cloud and shower activity. Should see the two dissipate towards
midnight. Clearing out and winds becoming light out of the w, there
is an opportunity for radiational cooling. Some question though as
to whether clouds linger and act as a blanket. For now will lean
towards cooler guidance with lows around the mid 50s given just how
dry it will become earlier in the day.

Monday and Monday night...

showers and thunderstorms possible again. Pretty much a repeat of
today and tonight (see the discussion above). However, wet-weather
activity may be delayed on the point that favorable ascent may be
delayed till the later-half of the day. Acting upon a more favorable
environment of steep lapse rates across S new england as the h5 cold
pool pushes S e. Another day of over- achieving highs with low humidity
dewpoints. Wet-weather activity lingers into the evening hours from
earlier in the day, gradually dissipating as conditions clear and
winds become light. Leaning the warmest guidance during the day,
coolest guidance at night given synoptic conditions.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
Highlights...

* a few showers isold t-storm possible Tue wed
* warming trend toward end of the week with return to summer
heat humidity by fri
* a few showers possible Thu with sct showers t-storms Fri sat
* backdoor front possible Sat but low confidence
overview...

mid level trof will begin to exit the northeast wed, followed by
building heights as subtropical ridge builds over the western
atlantic. Polar jet will be in the vicinity of new eng late in the
week into the weekend which will leave us susceptible to weak
shortwave passages and bouts of showers and t-storms. Temps starting
out slightly below normal Tue then warming through the end of the
week. Will have to watch a backdoor front for next sat.

Details...

Tuesday and Wednesday...

fairly robust shortwave lifts NE from the gt lakes Tue with mid
level trof moving into new eng by Tue evening before exiting on wed.

Increasing dynamic forcing and 500 mb temps cooling to -18 to -20c
will bring sct showers and isold t-storms to sne Tue into tue
evening with best chance in the interior. ECMWF is showing a more
amplified trof with a second shortwave rotating around and inducing
a coastal low south of new eng Tue night with area of rain for se
new eng. This does not have support of other global models so we
have discounted for now but something to watch in later forecasts.

On wed, mid level trof begins to exit the region but 500 mb temps
around -21c through 18z before warming toward evening. Moisture is
limited but can't rule out a few showers given the rather cold temps
aloft. Temps mid upper 70s Tue and a few degrees warmer on wed.

Thursday...

increasing warm advection pattern as warm front approaches from the
sw will lead to increasing clouds. GFS and ECMWF differ on the
positioning of the warm front which impacts sensible weather and
temps. GFS lifts the front to the north with main focus for
showers t-storms to the north and west. ECMWF holds the front to the
south with wetter and much cooler conditions. A low confidence
forecast this far out so minimal changes were made to pops and temps
and will have chc pops in the interior. Higher theta-e air and
better instability remains to the west where best t-storm chances
are. Gusty SW winds developing, especially in the coastal plain as
low level jet develops. The risk for t-storms will increase thu
night as higher theta-e air moves in.

Friday...

warm sector airmass with low level theta-e ridge axis across the
region and decent instability so expect sct showers and t-storms
developing. Difficult to pinpoint shear profiles this far out but it
does appear the region will be on the southern edge of stronger deep
layer shear so severe weather is possible. Temps should reach well
into the 80s to near 90 degrees but cloud cover could have some
impact. Very humid with dewpoints near 70.

Saturday...

tricky forecast as we may be dealing with a backdoor front close to
new eng. Impossible to know where this front will be but there is
potential for a sharp temp gradient across the region depending on
where the front is located. Very warm humid south of the front with
temps well into the 80s but much cooler to the north of the boundary
with 60s possible. It will all depend on where the front is.

Continued risk for showers t-storms, mainly south and west of the
boundary.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

Into morning...

last of low-endVFR CIGS and sct -shra pushing N e. If not
already, should become skc. Light winds prevailing.

Today...

vfr. Skc initially becoming sct-bkn across the interior towards
midday and continuing through afternoon. Sct shra mainly N W of
bdl-sfz-bos with a lower risk of tsra. SW winds becoming breezy
with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR with -shra, higher
confidence over high terrain terminals.

Tonight...

vfr. Sct-bkn CIGS dissipating along with -shra chances. W sw
winds diminishing.

Monday into Monday night...

vfr. Repeat of Sunday into Sunday night. Mostly skc initially
with sct-bkn CIGS developing midday and continuing through
afternoon with the threat of -shra and a lower threat of tsra
mainly N W of bdl-sfz-bos. However mid to high level CIGS will
be on the increase from the W late Monday night into Tuesday morn.

Kbos terminal... For both Sunday and Monday, will keep most of
the -shra activity and lower risk of tsra N w. Blustery SW winds
during the daylight hours with gusts up around 20 kts.

Kbdl terminal... Similar thinking as described above for kbos.

Outlook Tuesday through Thursday ...

Tuesday and Wednesday... High confidence.

MainlyVFR. A few showers and isold t-storm possible Tue and still
can't rule out a shower on wed.

Thursday... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR with CIGS lowering from NW to se. Afternoon showers
possible in the interior with showers t-storms possible all sne thu
night. Gusty SW winds developing, especially coastal plain.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

General trend of light winds out of the W during the overnight
periods while becoming blustery out of the SW through the day
with potential for gusts up around 20 kts. This as frontal waves
emerge from the W associated with a broad area of low pressure
over the great lakes while high pressure remains dominant over
the NW atlantic.

Rough seas and swell linger over the S SE waters through Sunday
around 5 to 6 feet. Small craft for hazardous seas accordingly.

Outlook Tuesday through Thursday ...

Tuesday and Wednesday... High confidence. Quiet boating weather with
winds and seas below sca. Gusts to 20 kt possible nearshore waters.

Thursday... Moderate confidence. Increasing SW winds with gusts to
25+ kt likely, especially over nearshore waters. Building seas may
reach 8 ft over southern waters Thu night. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 2 pm edt this
afternoon for anz254>256.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am edt this
morning for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Kjc sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi58 min 62°F6 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi53 min WSW 2.9
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 66 mi53 min NW 7 G 7 69°F 1012.4 hPa (+0.6)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 69 mi63 min 65°F1 ft1011.6 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi60 minW 310.00 miA Few Clouds63°F60°F90%1012 hPa

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS8S8S10SW10SW8SW11S11S11S12S12S14
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2 days agoW3NW8NW9NW9NW96S6SW9SW10SW11SW9SW8SW10SW10SW12
G26
SW7SW6SW7SW6SW5SW6SW5S6S9

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
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Sun -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:14 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:22 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:37 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.6-0.1-0.5-0.40.112.133.53.32.61.70.70-0.3-0.30.21.12.23.344.13.5

Tide / Current Tables for Nomans Land, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Nomans Land
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:09 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:09 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:32 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.6-0.1-0.4-0.4-00.71.93.13.73.52.71.60.5-0.2-0.4-0.30.212.13.34.14.13.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.