Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
South Amboy, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:08PM Sunday March 18, 2018 7:23 PM EDT (23:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 421 Pm Edt Sun Mar 18 2018
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late this evening, then becoming W late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 421 Pm Edt Sun Mar 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure and a cold front move across the region tonight. High pressure builds down from southern canada Monday and Monday night. A couple of coastal lows track from off the mid-atlantic coast into the canadian maritime provinces from Tuesday into Thursday night. High pressure then builds down from southern canada starting on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Amboy, NJ
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location: 40.5, -74.27     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 182014
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
414 pm edt Sun mar 18 2018

Weak low pressure and a cold front move across the region
tonight. High pressure builds down from southern canada Monday
and Monday night. A couple of coastal lows track from off the
mid-atlantic coast into the canadian maritime provinces from
Tuesday into Thursday night. High pressure then builds down from
southern canada from Friday through Saturday. A storm system
tracks from the ohio river valley to the mid atlantic states
Saturday night, then to the south of long island on Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
A weak surface low moving into the eastern great lakes will
continue to track southeast and move through tonight. There is
little mid level and upper level support with the surface low,
as weak energy rotates through the western portion of the upper
trough. Low levels will remain dry, however, models do indicate
the possibility of light snow as the low tracks across the
region. So will continue with the chance of flurries. A weak
cold front or surface trough accompanies the weak low.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
The upper trough remains across eastern canada and the northeast
Monday and Monday night, meanwhile a ridge remains to the west.

The mid and upper level systems remain blocked while a surface
high builds in from southern canada through the period.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Two storm systems could impact the area from Tuesday-Sunday.

The first storm system will come in two waves, the first in
response to shearing energy emerging a cutoff low over the
rockies that tracks to the south of long island Tuesday. At this
time it appears any precipitation from this first bit of energy
should be relatively light and based on a blended thermal
profile and surface wetbulb temperatures, should fall as mainly
snow. However, given sun-angle, would expect any accumulation to
be limited to mainly grassy surfaces. Generally less than 1 inch
of snow is expected during the day on Tuesday, mainly across
nyc long island southern portions of NE nj. There is generally
good agreement among the models with this idea with solid
support from the cmc ECMWF sref and the nam GFS just offshore
(but also with a more sheared out solution to the shortwave than
the others, so adjusting for this, you have a reasonable

The second wave with the first storm is in response to a
combination of the remainder of the energy associated with the
initial closed low over the rockies and a second piece of energy
that comes down from SW canada (which at one point was also part
of the rockies cutoff). This helps to carve out a larger low-mid
level shortwave trough potential 700 hpa closed low - and hence
a stronger coastal low that tracks to the S E of the 40n 70w
bench mark. There is also a general consensus for this idea from
the models in a general sense. However, with the nam GFS likely
too far S E with initial low, their path for the follow-on low
likely also is too far to the S e, so followed a SREF cmc ecmwf
blend with the second low.

So expect another round of snow to develop later Tuesday night
and linger into Wednesday night. Once again thermal profiles and
surface wetbulb temperatures support mainly if not all snow.

Still some question of how much and how far to the NW QPF falls
with this storm. There is the potential for advisory level snows
across mainly the southern 1 2 of the cwa. It should be noted
that our snow grids, consistent with duration of wpc produced
snow probabilities only go through 00z Thursday, so do not
capture all of the snow expected to fall from this system. There
is still uncertainty on the exact strength, timing and track of
the storm, so would expect refinements to the forecast with
time. Currently the range of solutions range from no snow to a
very low chance of a low end warning snowfall across far s
portions of the cwa. A mitigating fact to any snow accumulation
will be the Sun angle this time of year, and even with wet
bulbing, could see temperatures near or right above freezing.

With low levels drying behind the storm, even with passage of
trough axis on Thursday Thursday night, it should be dry, except
for maybe some lingering snow early over far eastern parts of
the cwa. Another shortwave pushes through Friday, but once again
the dry low levels should preclude any precipitation.

Shortwave ridging crosses the area Friday night and Saturday, so
it should continue to be dry.

The next storm system comes in response to a northern stream
trough developing closed low moving into the great
lakes southern canada Saturday night and Sunday. At this time
there is the potential for mainly snow across northern portions
and a rain snow mix across the S 1 2 of the cwa.

Temperatures should be below normal Monday-Sunday.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
High pressure will build to the north. A weakening low will
pass across the region tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period. NW winds today around 10kt will gust
to around 20-25kt through about 22z. Gusts then diminish and
winds fall below 10kt, eventually becoming light and variable
overnight. On Monday, winds increase from the north to around
10kt, then become northwest by mid to late morning.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Thursday
Monday afternoon and Monday night Vfr.

Tuesday Low confidence forecast through Wednesday. Chance of
snow with ifr conditions for the long island and nyc metro
terminals. Ene winds g20kt nyc metro coastal terminals.

Tuesday night MVFR conditions possible with any lingering
snow showers. NE winds g20kt nyc metro coastal terminals, mainly

Wednesday Snow with ifr conds likely at the long island
terminals, and may also be possible farther north including all
local terminals. NE winds g20-25kt.

Thursday-Friday Vfr. N winds g15-20kt.

Wind gusts and seas on the ocean waters have diminished.

However, there may be an occasional gust to near 25 kt on the
eastern, outer waters through the remainder of the afternoon.

With wind gusts generally below SCA levels, and seas less then
5 ft, will cancel the SCA for the rest of the afternoon.

A weak flow will be across all the forecast waters tonight as a
weak low moves through, then high pressure builds to the north
Monday into Monday night. Winds and seas will be below sca
levels through Monday night.

Small craft conditions are likely on the coastal ocean waters on
Tuesday with sub-small craft conditions on the non-ocean waters.

The pressure gradient tightens Tuesday night and remains
relatively strong over the region into Wednesday night. As a
result gale conditions are possible Tuesday night-Wednesday
night on the coastal ocean and waters and small craft conditions
are probable on the non-ocean waters during this time frame. The
threat for gales will be highlighted in the hwo.

The pressure gradient then gradually slackens from Thursday
through Friday, with small craft advisory (sca) conditions
lingering on all waters into Thursday and on the coastal ocean
waters into and possibly though Thursday night. For now, it
appears that sub-sca conditions should occur on all waters
Friday and Friday night.

It will be mainly dry through Monday night.

There is the potential for a prolonged period of precipitation
from Tuesday through Wednesday night. At this time, it appears
that total amounts should be less than 1 inch of liquid, and
with it expected to fall mainly, if not all as snow, no
significant hydrologic impacts are expected.

Tides coastal flooding
There is the potential for a prolonged period of e-ne flow from
Monday night into Wednesday night. Tidal departures of
generally only 1 to 1 1 2 ft are needed for minor flooding for
many locations Tuesday night through Wednesday night, and 2 to
3 ft for moderate.

Depending on the exact track strength of a coastal low or lows
during this time frame, there is the potential for minor to
moderate coastal flooding, but predictability on the details
remains low.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 19 maloit
near term... 19
short term... 19
long term... Maloit
aviation... Bc
marine... 19 maloit
hydrology... 19 maloit
tides coastal flooding...


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 11 mi54 min NW 8.9 G 12
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 12 mi54 min 43°F 41°F1012.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi54 min NNW 8 G 11 42°F 40°F1013.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 15 mi54 min NW 11 G 19 43°F 1013.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi54 min 43°F 41°F1013.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi44 min NW 12 G 16 42°F 41°F1012.9 hPa21°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi54 min N 14 G 19 41°F 39°F1013.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi54 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 41°F1012.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi54 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 49°F 41°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ15 mi33 minWNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds43°F6°F22%1012.5 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ22 mi39 minNNW 410.00 miClear41°F8°F26%1012.5 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ23 mi31 minno data10.00 miFair43°F10°F27%1012.1 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ23 mi28 minNW 410.00 miFair43°F12°F28%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW6NW11N15N12
1 day agoNW14
2 days agoNW12W7W12W10W6W7W8W5W6W5W10W12W12NW13

Tide / Current Tables for Perth Amboy, New Jersey
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Perth Amboy
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Sun -- 03:43 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:28 AM EDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:00 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:45 PM EDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
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Sun -- 12:37 AM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     2.23 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:58 PM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:41 PM EDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.