Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Monmouth, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:36PM Sunday November 19, 2017 9:04 AM EST (14:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 6:47PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 644 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely early this morning, then slight chance of showers late this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 644 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold will sweep across the area early this morning with high pressure building in its wake. The high will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. Another area of high pressure will build late week, followed by low pressure moving across on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Monmouth, NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191214
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
714 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold will sweep across the area early this morning with
high pressure building in its wake. The high will pass to the
south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday.

Another area of high pressure will build late week, followed by
low pressure moving across on Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 11z cold front was in central nj. Stubborn warm front has
yet to push through north central orange county, but should do
so very briefly before the cold fropa. Front timed to move
through the metro area over the next hour or so with showers
ending, although there will be a burst of higher winds right
behind it.

Gusts generally remain between 20 and 30 kt in the warm
sector, due to a strengthening inversion above the surface. Vad
wind profile from kokx and kjfk radar still indicate 50-55kt at
2000 ft, but it doesn't appear that we will mix higher winds
down until after the cold fropa. Strong winds then appear
likely across all areas, particularly in the late morning and
afternoon as the system departs. Upstream obs were showing
gusts in the range of 45-50 mph immediately following the
frontal passage, so the wind advisory will remain in place.

High temps will likely occur early this morning for many
locations, before falling during the late morning and aftn from
w to E as strong CAA commences.

Short term Monday
Winds gradually decrease tonight, although will still remain
quite gusty with the departing low still strengthening as it
lifts into SE canada and high pres building to the s. All high
res guidance indicates that lake effect streamers remain N and w
of the area, except perhaps for a few hours this eve in orange
county. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies tonight will give way to
mostly sunny conds on Monday. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s
tonight and highs in the 40s on Monday, although gusty winds
will make it feel like its only in the 30s.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Aloft, models agree early in the period as initial shortwave passes
east northeast. Downstream shortwave will then make fast eastward
progress. Here is where some differences arise. Northern stream
potent shortwave tracks across the great lakes region as it lifts
northeast, with most of the energy and associated dynamics lifting
well to our north Wednesday. Southern stream trough lags a bit as it
moves across the gulf states. By late Wednesday into Thursday,
operational GFS seems to be a deep strong outlier with regard to
closed low around the gulf states as the trough makes eastward
progress.

This upper trough weakens over the western atlantic Thursday, with
next shortwave in the northern stream moving eastward toward the
northeast by next weekend.

At the sfc, high pressure passes to the south Monday and Tuesday.

Gusty NW flow will back around the SW as the high tracks east.

Thereafter, a cold front passes Wednesday. This front is associated
with northern stream shortwave. This looks like the best chance for
measurable precipitation, late Tuesday night into Wednesday, chance
pops.

Waves of low pressure likely develop along the front well to our
south in the Wednesday night Thursday time frame. Again, GFS appears
to be an outlier with wave of low pressure developing and passing
close enough for measurable precip Thursday. Otherwise, model
consensus suggest any precip remains to our southeast as ridge
builds to the NW and waves remain far enough to the southeast.

Will maintain a dry forecast as a result, leaning toward consensus.

However, this will need to be watched.

Dry through Friday before the next chance for precip arrives with
the shortwave, clipper low Saturday.

As for temperatures Monday-Saturday, followed a model MOS blend.

Below normal temperatures Monday will warm to slightly above normal
Tuesday as WAA occurs behind the high. Behind a cold front
Wednesday, normal temps likely fall to below normal Thursday and
Friday before rebounding yet again in WAA ahead of the clipper low
Saturday.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
A cold front moves through around daybreak with high pressure
building behind it through this evening.

S-sw winds shift to the w-wnw 12z-15z following the cold frontal
passage, with gusts frequently 35-40 kt during the day. Kjfk
may see stronger sustained speeds without gusts initially until
flow shifts more to the W this morning. The gusts will
initially be 20-30 kt, increasing to 30-40 kt towards day
break. Some eastern terminals may see peak gusts 45 kt. The
gusts will begin to weaken early in the evening, though will
likely continue through the night.

MainlyVFR-MVFR conditions to start with conditions improving to
vfr 12z-15z behind the cold front.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Friday
Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g20-30kt. Gusts diminish gradually at
night.

Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night in showers.

Sw winds g15-20kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers during the day.VFR at
night. W-nw winds g15-20kt.

Thursday-Friday Vfr.

Marine
Seas continue to build ahead of strong southwest flow.

Gale-force winds are already occurring across the ocean waters
and will spread elsewhere through the day, especially following
the cold frontal passage later this morning. It appears that the
best shot of reaching storm force winds is right behind the cold
fropa between 12z and 15z, despite 50-55 kt winds currently just
above the sfc. Will leave storm warning up until the front
pushes through due to this potential.

Gale-force winds will continue into tonight, before gradually
weakening to sca-levels tomorrow. SCA conditions may continue
through Tuesday night before winds and seas gradually subside
into Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds across the
area.

Hydrology
A few bands of moderate to locally heavy showers with a strong
cold frontal passage this morning should cause no more than
local nuisance impacts. Additional rainfall of a few tenths up
to 1 4 is expected through late morning, highest amounts east.

Tides coastal flooding
Latest surge is running between 1 2 to 1 1 2 ft on the south
shore bays of li. At this rate, minor coastal flooding
benchmarks could be met, however winds will be shifting to the
w NW right before high tide, thus these values could decrease a
bit in western portions of the bays and cause the start of tidal
piling across eastern portions of the great south bay into
moriches bay. Have maintained the coastal flood statement
addressing brief and localized minor coastal flooding impacts.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ctz007>012.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ctz005-006.

Ny... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz071>075-
078>081-176>179.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz067>070.

Nj... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for njz006.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for njz002-004-
103>108.

Marine... Storm warning until noon est today for anz330-340-345-350-353.

Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz335-338-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi74 min WSW 25 G 31 60°F 59°F8 ft989.5 hPa (-1.0)56°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 29 mi49 min SW 21 G 31 57°F 50°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 38 mi75 min WSW 19 G 31 58°F 2 ft53°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ14 mi73 minW 23 G 3510.00 miOvercast and Windy54°F44°F69%991.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY16 mi73 minWSW 22 G 315.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy57°F54°F90%991.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY18 mi73 minVar 6 G 1710.00 miOvercast56°F48°F77%990.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi73 minW 23 G 3110.00 miLight Rain and Windy58°F51°F78%990.3 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi73 minW 17 G 2710.00 miOvercast57°F46°F67%990.3 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS8S8S9SE6S6S4CalmCalmS4S7S33S5S6S7S10SW15
G21
SW19
G25
SW13
G23
S17
G24
SW19
G31
W23
G35
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G28
1 day agoW16
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NW14
G21
W12W13
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NW19
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NW13
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NW14W6W7W8NW7W8W6W6W4W4CalmCalmW3W5W5CalmCalm
2 days agoSW11SW11SW9W16W17
G22
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G29
W12W17
G21
W11W13
G20
W13W15W19
G24
W7W11NW8
G17
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G25
NW16
G19
NW19
G29
NW14
G21
NW11W17
G23

Tide / Current Tables for New Dorp Beach, New York
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New Dorp Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:01 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:58 AM EST     5.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:36 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:18 PM EST     4.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.3-00.41.63.14.45.45.85.44.33.11.80.7-0-0.10.723.34.24.84.63.92.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:57 AM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:10 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:31 PM EST     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EST     1.47 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.9-1.7-1.2-0.40.71.721.81.20.2-0.8-1.6-2.1-2.1-1.7-1.1-0.20.91.41.41.10.3-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.