Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Monmouth, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 20, 2017 10:32 PM EDT (02:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:55AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1024 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Overnight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1024 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will pass across the coastal waters overnight and settle south of the area by Friday night. The front will remain stationary through the day on Saturday before returning north as a warm front Saturday night into Sunday. Multiple waves of low pressure move through the area through early next week, followed by building high pressure for the mid to late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Monmouth, NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 210021
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
821 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will move through tonight. Dry
conditions are expected for Friday in the wake of a cold front,
however, hot and humid weather will continue. A warm front will
approach late Saturday and lift north across the area into
Sunday morning. Multiple waves of low pressure move through the
area through early next week, followed by building high pressure
for the mid to late week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch in coordination
with SPC and phi as activity has remained sub severe. Gusty
winds and heavy downpours are likely, but any severe wx is
expected to be isolated or not occur at all for our cwa.

In the wake of the activity, patchy fog may form in areas that
received heavier rain and temps cool to near the dewpoint.

The actual "cold" front will lag a bit behind the convection.

Based on progged theta-e from the GFS (which sometimes is the
best indicator of front locations in subtle temperature
gradient situations) shows a packing of contours around 3 am to
6 am across the area, indicative of the front's location.

Dewpoints may drop a hair with the front's passage.

Lows tonight will still be in the upper 60s in the coolest
spots well north and west of the city with readings in the mid
to upper 70s in more urban areas.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
West to northwest flow aloft sets up for Friday as the front
drifts on south and stalls toward the DELMARVA peninsula. Drier
air aloft should mix down a bit as the flow aloft remains
offshore to 925 mb. However, this flow aloft is light (10 kts or
less) that the seabreeze will likely return in the afternoon
which would bring dewpoints at the surface back up. With the
offshore, flow I have favored the warmer end of guidance and
gone with the higher end of mos. This will push temps to near 90
over well inland areas and into the low to mid 90s along the
coast and in and around immediate nyc and urbanized areas in
north jersey. Thus the heat advisory was extended for most areas
today except for rockland, westchester, western bergen and
southern fairfield counties which look to fall just short of
criteria.

Although moisture and some instability lingers I have kept the
forecast dry as the presence of a lee-side surface pressure
trough and seabreeze do not look to be enough to pop any lid to
trigger convection tomorrow.

Dry for Friday night with west northwest flow aloft holding
firm. Lows should be a little cooler, with readings in the low
to mid 60s well north and west of the city to the mid 70s in nyc
and hudson county, nj.

I'm not enthused much for convection during the day on Saturday.

Westerly flow aloft sets up and a surface stationary front is
well to our south. Again, the only triggers will be the lee side
surface pressure trough and the sea breeze. I left in a low end
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze
on long island and over interior areas where differential
heating of the hilly terrain may set off something. Highs will
be a bit cooler and many spots will only be in the 80s for a
high. However, humidity will still be enough to make it a sticky
Saturday.

The warm front should start to lift back north Saturday night
and return the potential for showers and thunderstorms from the
south and west. Models show a spread in timing, so i
broadbrushed in pops for this time frame. The better chance
should be closer to sunrise on Sunday as a low-level jet of
40 kts+ moves from the jersey shore toward long island. With
high pwat values approaching 2 inches per the gfs, the threat
for heavy rain will be there Saturday night along with gusty
winds in any more potent convection. Lows will be a little
warmer due to the increase in clouds and warm front lifting
north.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Much of the extended will be dominated by an unseasonably south
latitude polar jet orientation, with multiple short waves moving
through the northeast in northwest flow, which is typically a
pattern that offers very little predictability.

Despite considerable uncertainty for the extended period, the
pattern remains favorable for periods of heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms as multiple mesoscale convective systems move through
the area in northwest flow. The greatest complexity with the
forecast remains on where any frontal boundaries stall, which have
impacts on temperature, wind, instability, cloud cover, etc, but
most importantly on where exactly these systems will track. The
forecast will need to be monitored over the next few days for any
heavy rainfall flooding and severe potential.

By mid week, a brief respite in the active wet pattern may come as
ridging builds aloft and confluent flow allows a surface high to
strengthen. At least briefly, dew points and subsequently relative
humidity values will finally fall to more comfortable thresholds.

However, this may be short lived as the overall pattern still looks
to be active.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
A convective complex crossing the area this evening has
weakened. What's left of it will pass through nyc by 01-02z.

Gusty winds to 35 kt and heavy rain are still possible with
this activity for the next few hours.

For the most part, outside of the convection,VFR conditions
will prevail through Monday.

W flow this evening around 10 kt, with some occasional gusts up
to 25 kt in the vicinity of any heavier showers and isolated
thunder. Winds will become NW 7-12 kt overnight into Friday
morning.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 5 mi50 min SW 12 G 14 78°F 82°F1011.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 9 mi56 min W 8.9 G 9.9 1012.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 9 mi50 min 77°F 77°F1012.4 hPa
MHRN6 10 mi56 min WSW 8.9 G 12
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 12 mi50 min 80°F 76°F1012.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi102 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 79°F 76°F3 ft1011.4 hPa (+0.3)76°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 24 mi50 min WNW 9.9 G 14 79°F 73°F1011.7 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 29 mi47 min WSW 12 G 18 79°F 69°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 38 mi47 min W 14 G 18 82°F 71°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 46 mi50 min E 1.9 G 7 76°F 83°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ14 mi41 minW 910.00 miOvercast78°F69°F74%1012.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY16 mi41 minWNW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F72°F70%1012 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY18 mi41 minWNW 310.00 miFair78°F69°F74%1012.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi41 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F70°F69%1011.7 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi41 minW 410.00 miFair77°F69°F77%1012 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W6SW7SW7W4SW4W5W3W3CalmW4W5NW6SW7NW13
G16
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W9W10W8SW11W9
1 day agoS9S10SW7SW8SW6SW7SW6SW6SW8SW6W8W5W11NW8
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2 days agoS6S7S7S5S6CalmS3S4CalmCalmS4CalmSW5S5SE6SE8SE7SE9
G16
S11SE10S6S8S10S8

Tide / Current Tables for New Dorp Beach, New York
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New Dorp Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:53 PM EDT     6.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.71.93.34.34.94.94.23.11.90.90.1-0.10.51.93.655.96.25.84.83.42.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     1.55 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:46 AM EDT     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:02 PM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:27 PM EDT     -2.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.1-0.30.81.51.51.30.5-0.6-1.5-2-2.2-1.7-1-0.30.91.92.221.50.3-0.9-1.8-2.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.