Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gilgo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:08PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:12PMMoonset 8:08AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 759 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Slight chance of showers this evening.
Sat..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 759 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The high moves to the south on Sunday into Sunday night, followed by a cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure then builds in through the mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gilgo, NY
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location: 40.54, -73.43     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230018
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
818 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes
tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The
high moves to the south on Sunday into Sunday night, followed by a
cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure then builds in
through the late week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Have adjusted pops in the near term to better reflect current
radar and trends into the overnight period. Hrrr is doing well
and is supported by NAM rap with 2 areas of pcpn persisting but
weakening through this eve, one across western ct and into the
lower hud valley and the other across eastern ct. Another vort
max pivoting around the upper low will likely cause additional
pcpn across eastern ct through much of the overnight. Thermal
profiles will cool resulting in liquid pcpn to become frozen.

While most of the forecast area won't see any accumulation, some
locations could see a coating, and portions of eastern ct could
see around an inch.

Otherwise, winds remain the main story. W-nw winds will
generally gust around 35-40 mph through tonight due to the
combination of CAA and a strong pressure gradient on the
backside of departing low pressure. There could be times of peak
gusts of up to 45 mph, but expecting to remain below wind advsy.

Lows tonight are expected to be near or a few degrees below
freezing.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Winds will continue to gust from 35-40 mph, but stay below wind
advisory criteria, through Sat afternoon and then lowering
overnight to 15-20 mph. Winds should be NW through the period.

Temperatures should top out near 50 and again be near freezing
sat night. Should be dry.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pres will allow for a sunny start to the day on sun. With waa
aloft developing, increasing mid and high clouds can be expected for
the rest of the day. The nbm was used for temps, with readings at or
slightly abv average.

The models show a bit of uncertainty wrt the cold frontal passage on
mon. The front is timed to come thru early mon. The GFS appears to
be slightly faster than the ecmwf. The main challenge ATTM is
whether a wave developing along the front will bring a round of post
frontal pcpn to the area. This could fall as snow if it does occur.

The GFS is more robust with this probability, with the ECMWF keeping
the activity S of the cwa. The gem is a bit closer to the gfs.

Complicating factor is that boundary layer temps may not cool
sufficiently for a complete changeover to snow. A blend of the model
data was used, leaning on a warmer overall soln and little to no
snow, based on the wave uncertainty and temp uncertainty combined.

It looks dry Tue into Thu with a low 1030s high building into the
area. During this time of year, it should lead to some large diurnal
temp swings. The nbm was generally used for temps, although the
numbers were lowered Tue ngt with better radiational cooling
expected.

Probably dry for the rest of Thu thru fri. The models produce some
spotty pcpn in the WAA regime ahead of the next sys. With a dry
airmass in place, the official fcst was kept dry. The nbm was used
for temps, with a warming trend likely.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Deep low pressure along the maine coast tracks into the canadian
maritimes overnight. The low gradually weakens Saturday while
tracking through the canadian maritimes.

Gusty wnw winds, around 310 true, remain through the taf
forecast. The highest winds and gusts will be tonight into
early Saturday morning. Winds and gusts then gradually diminish
through the late morning and the afternoon.

Scattered rain showers possible into this evening, with
conditions remainingVFR, and will mention as vicinity. Any
showers that linger into the overnight hours at
kswf khpn kbdr kgon could mix with or change to snow. A period
of light snow is possible at kgon overnight with reduced
visibility.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi33 min W 23 G 29 44°F 42°F998 hPa (+2.5)34°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 24 mi43 min W 16 G 18 44°F 40°F7 ft996.9 hPa (+2.7)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi39 min NW 16 G 20 44°F 39°F998 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi39 min W 25 G 30 43°F 43°F999.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi39 min 44°F 42°F998.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi39 min WNW 29 G 33 45°F 998.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi39 min 45°F 43°F998.5 hPa
MHRN6 39 mi39 min W 11 G 24
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi39 min NW 9.9 G 20 45°F 39°F994.2 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi40 minW 16 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F28°F52%996.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi42 minW 15 G 2610.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F30°F54%997.8 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5SE4SE3E3SE5SE6E7E4E6E8E7E10E10E9E9E11E13E14
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2 days agoSW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW8SW10SW11SW12SW15SW15
G21
S13S12S10S12SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Gilgo Heading, Long Island, New York
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Gilgo Heading
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:01 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.310.60.3-0-0.2-0.200.50.91.31.41.31.10.70.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.30.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Green Island, Long Island, New York
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Green Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:11 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:00 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:29 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.610.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.311.72.22.42.21.81.20.50-0.3-0.400.71.52.12.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.