Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gilgo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:18PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:52 AM EDT (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:32AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 148 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Overnight..E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Light rain likely...then rain likely late. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of tstms in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 148 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A low pressure system approaches tonight and passes through during Monday into Monday evening. A weak cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, then crosses the area Tuesday night...followed by another on Wednesday. High pressure then builds to the south through Thursday night. Another cold front approaches on Friday then slowly crosses the area Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gilgo, NY
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location: 40.54, -73.43     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 290232
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1032 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system approaches tonight and passes through during
Monday into Monday evening. A weak cold front approaches from
the west Tuesday, then crosses the area Tuesday night... Followed
by another on Wednesday. High pressure then builds to the south
through Thursday night. Another cold front approaches on Friday
then slowly crosses the area Friday night.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
A few light rain showers are beginning to reach the ground
across parts of the area, and light rain will continue to
overspread the area tonight. Made minor adjustments to
temperatures, dew points, and winds to better account for
current trends, otherwise the forecast remains on track.

Otherwise... A primary low pressure center slowly shifts
eastward just north of the great lakes. An associated occluded
front drifts towards us, and models are in general agreement
that a secondary weak low pressure center forms along the front
to our south before emerging off the mid-atlantic coast. Trends
have been for a more defined secondary low, but there is still
disagreement on the northern extent of its eventual track and
associated lift. Between shortwave and isentropic lift, and
synoptic lift from an approaching jet streak, thinking is that
the likelihood of rainfall is still there by late tonight for
the city and areas west of the hudson. Patchy fog is expected as
well with this being the 2nd night in a row with a SE flow.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
The secondary low center remains to our south Monday morning as it
shifts out of the picture in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the occluded
front begins to move through the forecast area during Monday
afternoon and exits to the east during the evening. Additional lift
will still be present with jet streak dynamics and shortwave energy.

Rain is therefore expected across the entire tri-state area for the
morning at least through the morning. For at least the city and west
of the hudson, much of the afternoon could be still be dry although
breaks of sunshine will probably be limited. The threat of rain
doesn't exit east until around sunset, but any rainfall after mid-
afternoon would probably be east of the city. Clouds and rain will
limit high temps to only around 60. West of the hudson is forecast
to be mostly in the lower 60s, but even upper 60s can happen there
if clouds break up more quickly than currently forecast.

As for thunder, can't rule any out with a few hundred j kg of mucape
forecast, but this would be an isolated occurrence in during the
morning midday hours. Rain amounts are expected to average around a
half of an inch.

A weak high pressure ridge axis will stretch into the region during
the nighttime hours. With low level moisture leftover from the rain
and light to calm winds, expecting stratus and at least patchy fog
during the overnight hours.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Global models remain in good agreement through Fri with an
amplified h5 pattern across north america. Differences then
emerge from Fri night through the weekend with the upper
pattern... Specifically how quickly the upper low over eastern
canada tracks ewd across the maritimes and NRN new england.

Additionally... There are differences with the interaction of
energy aloft associated with the next system that may impact the
area next weekend.

Tue through fri... A closed upper level low over ontario will
slowly track ewd through the week due to a downstream omega
block. A series of shortwaves and sfc fronts troughs will move
across the area during this time... Bringing the chances for
showers and tstms each day except thu. Tue is expected to start
out with fog and stratus with a light onshore flow. Some
question on how thick and widespread the fog will be with the
cloud cover... So have only included patchy fog in the morning
for now. Soundings are indicating stratus or stratocu remains
around for much of the day which makes high temps a challenge.

Think there could be some breaks during the aftn... So leaned
towards the higher temp guidance.

A cold front approaching from the west will move across the area
tue night. There could be a few isold shra tstms in western
areas... Especially late in the day. Chances for showers increase
overnight as a weak wave of low pres develops along the
boundary. Instability wanes with the loss of heating so have
removed tstms after midnight.

The next shortwave weak cold front approaches on Wed and moves
through Wed aftn eve. Less available moisture... Thus low chc
pops with its passage.

High pres builds to the S Thu with no discernible shortwaves
moving around the low aloft. Thus... Thu Thu night should be dry
with mostly clear skies.

As the low finally tracks through the maritimes and NRN new
england on Fri another cold front will move across the area. Sct
aftn convection is a possibility... Although instability appears
weak attm.

Front clears by Sat morning although this is where uncertainty
aloft begins. Models currently agree that an approaching
shortwave will impact the area Sat night into sun... But they
don't agree on the details on timing on precip and strength of
developing low over the ohio valley.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
A frontal system will approach late tonight... And cross the
area on Monday.

Rain will overspread the region over the next few hours, however
expecting MVFR conditions to arrive after midnight. Further
deteriorating conditions to ifr heading into the morning
push... With low prob for sparse tsra as well.

Winds turn easterly and increase for coastal terminals to
around 14 kt with gusts to 20 kt late tonight and continue
through Monday morning as a wave of low pressure tracks to the
south.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night MVFR or lower conds possible in stratus.

Tuesday MVFR or lower to start... Possibly improving toVFR in
the afternoon. Chance of aft eve showers and possibly a tstm.

MVFR or lower possible Tue night.

Wednesday Vfr. Chance of aft eve showers tstms mainly NW of
the nyc metro terminals.

Thursday Vfr.

Friday Vfr. Aft eve showers tstms possible.

Marine
Winds and seas increase during the late night hours of tonight in
response to low pressure emerging off the mid-atlantic coast and
passing to the south of the area waters. Have gone with a SCA on the
ocean from midnight tonight through Monday afternoon. There could be
a gust or two to 25 kt on the other waters late tonight into Monday
night, but not worth expanding the SCA to these areas. Winds and
seas then remain below advisory criteria Monday night as a high
pressure ridge axis stretches in from the northeast.

Sub-advsy conds continue through the remainder of the forecast
period. If winds on Fri end up being a little stronger than
forecast seas could build to 5 ft on the ocean waters.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected with the rainfall late tonight
into Monday. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm during
Monday morning early afternoon, but only a low chance of minor
urbanized flooding would occur with any thunderstorms.

No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are then expected
at this time from Monday night through at least Thursday night.

Tides coastal flooding
While astronomical tides are a little lower for the high tide cycle
tonight, surge will increase a bit due to SE flow.

As a result, a coastal flood advisory continues for the south
shore bays of brooklyn, queens, and nassau, where widespread
minor coastal flooding is expected. Elsewhere, brief localized
minor flooding is possible along the shores of westchester fairfield
western long island sound, SW suffolk, and along the kill van kull
and arthur kill around staten island and adjacent portions of nj.

Additional minor coastal flooding may occur with the high tide cycle
Monday night... Mainly for the southern bays of nassau nyc.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Monday for nyz075-178-
179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc 24
near term... Jc
short term... Jc
long term... 24
aviation... Cb
marine... Jc 24
hydrology... Jc 24
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi63 min E 16 G 18 58°F 58°F3 ft1011.5 hPa (-1.4)55°F
44069 21 mi53 min ESE 14 G 18 59°F 64°F57°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 24 mi63 min ESE 16 G 18 57°F 56°F4 ft1011.3 hPa (-1.3)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi53 min E 2.9 G 6 60°F 60°F1012.5 hPa (-1.0)
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi38 min 60°F 54°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi68 min ENE 14 G 16 59°F 55°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi53 min ESE 9.9 G 15 58°F 60°F1011.2 hPa (-1.5)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi53 min 60°F 60°F1011.9 hPa (-1.3)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi53 min E 13 G 18 60°F 1012.7 hPa (-1.2)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi53 min 60°F 61°F1012.1 hPa (-1.4)
MHRN6 39 mi53 min E 7 G 11
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi53 min E 7 G 9.9 56°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi60 minE 710.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1012.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi62 minE 810.00 miOvercast60°F55°F84%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE3SE4CalmE3S6S6S8S8S8S13S8S11SE10SE12SE10SE9SE11SE9SE9SE9SE9E8E7
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmNW3N3N6N3NW5N6N9S10SW9S7S6S9SE6SE8SE7SE8SE7SE5SE5SE6
2 days agoN11NE8N8N6N5N6NW5NW5NW6W11W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Gilgo Heading, Long Island, New York
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Gilgo Heading
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Mon -- 01:26 AM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:11 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:44 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.51.41.310.70.30.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.81.11.21.210.70.40.2000.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Green Island, Long Island, New York
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Green Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.52.11.610.4-0-0.2-0.10.30.91.51.92.121.61.10.60.200.10.51.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.