Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belford, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday August 20, 2017 12:17 AM EDT (04:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:45AMMoonset 7:09PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1024 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1024 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front will pass through tonight, followed by high pressure building from the west Sunday into Sunday night. The region remains on the western periphery of the bermuda high from Monday through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday night then crosses the area on Wednesday. Canadian high pressure then builds in through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belford, NJ
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location: 40.54, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200257
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1057 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will pass through tonight, followed by high
pressure building from the west Sunday into Sunday night. The
region remains on the western periphery of the bermuda high from
Monday through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west
Tuesday night then crosses the area on Wednesday. Canadian high
pressure then builds in through Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Band of convection beginning to enter NW nj and just west of
orange county has significantly weakened over the last hour with
loss of heating. Will continue to carry chance of showers across
the NW interior through around midnight although coverage will
continue to diminish as the evening progresses.

Should be dry throughout after 06z as northern stream shortwave
trough exits to the ne.

Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s in just outside nyc,
with 60s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Zonal upper flow ensues after the upper trough passage, with sfc
high pressure building from the west. Sunday should be mostly
sunny and quite warm, with high temps only a shade lower than
those of today. Temps should respond to clear skies light winds
Sunday night by dropping into the 50s inland and in the long
island pine barrens and the 60s most elsewhere, but only the
lower 70s once again in outside nyc.

Long term Monday through Saturday
The region remains on the northern periphery of a western extension
of the sub-tropical ridge Monday-Monday night, with zonal flow
aloft. With no shortwaves embedded in the flow it should be dry with
minimal cloud cover. Any clouds would be primary some isolated-
scattered cirrus, but cannot rule out few-sct CU Monday
afternoon along any seabreeze differential heating boundaries.

Highs Monday should be 5-10 degrees above normal, with the nyc metro
area right around the 90 degree mark. With dewpoints progged in the
lower-mid 60s Monday afternoon, heat indices should be within a
degree or two of the air temperature. Lows Monday night should also
be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with urban heat island areas
only falling to the mid 70s.

Sw winds aloft on Tuesday as an approaching N stream closed low
sharpens the flow ahead of it. GFS is the most aggressive of all
models with any showers thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, so have
limited pops to slight chance over the NW 1 2 of the cwa. Tuesday
will be another very warm-hot day over the area, with highs again 5-
10 degrees above normal. Afternoon dewpoints though should be around
70 producing heat indices across nyc urban NE nj in the mid 90s.

Have increasing pops Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
aforementioned northern stream closed low passing to the north, and
its associated surface cold front crossing the area on Wednesday.

With the region in the right rear quadrant of a 95-100kt 300 hpa jet
Wednesday, 1000-2000 j kg of cape, 35-45kt of 0-6km bulk shear, and
the region in the tail of a 30-35kt low -level jet, there is a low-
end potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms ahead of
the cold front on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should be a degree
or so warmer than on Monday night. Highs on Wednesday should be near
normal (depending on how fast the cold front actually moves through).

A mean trough sets up over the northeast and mid-atlantic Wednesday
night-Saturday. However dry low levels and predominately nw
(occasionally w-wnw) low level flow should keep things dry.

Temperatures should be near normal Wednesday night, then a few
degrees below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
A cold front moves through the terminals tonight followed by high
pressure for Sunday.

Vfr through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms to the
north and west continue to diminish. A brief shower could move
over kswf 03-05z, but conditions are expected to remainVFR.

This activity will not impact the ny metro terminals.

Sw-w flow under 10 kt veers to the NW with the cold front
passage overnight. NW winds are expected on Sunday around 10 kt,
with some backing to the W and SW in the afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night-Tuesday morning Vfr.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or lower conditions possible. SW g20 kt possible late
Tuesday.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
The forecast is on track.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the region will limit winds to
around 10kt or less through Monday night, with seas waves below
small craft advisory levels.

The pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front Tuesday,
with winds up to around 15kt.

There should be a moderately tight pressure gradient over the
region Tuesday night- Wednesday with sustained winds up to
around 20kt and the potential for gusts to around 25kt,
especially over the coastal ocean waters. Seas should build to
sca levels over the coastal ocean waters Tuesday night and
remain so on Wednesday.

The pressure gradient then slackens from Wednesday night into
Thursday. Winds should be limited to around 15 kt or less on
Wednesday night and 10kt or less on Thursday, with seas below sca
levels during this time frame.

Hydrology
It should be dry through Monday night, then no significant
hydrologic impact is expected from any showers or thunderstorms
on Tuesday.

At this time, there is too much uncertainty to specify what, if
any, hydrologic impact would be experienced from convection
Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should then be dry Wednesday
night-Saturday.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Goodman maloit
near term... Goodman maloit ds
short term... Goodman
long term... Maloit
aviation... Ds
marine... Goodman maloit
hydrology... Maloit


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 5 mi47 min SW 8 G 8.9 78°F 79°F1011.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 9 mi47 min WSW 8.9 G 11 1012.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 10 mi47 min 79°F 76°F1011.8 hPa
MHRN6 11 mi47 min SW 7 G 8.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 11 mi47 min 80°F 75°F1011.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi87 min WSW 9.7 G 9.7 78°F 77°F3 ft1012 hPa (+1.8)71°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 22 mi47 min W 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 74°F1011.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi87 min WSW 9.7 G 12 77°F 76°F3 ft1012.5 hPa (+1.7)75°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 49 mi47 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 76°F 77°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY14 mi26 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F70°F79%1012.2 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ15 mi26 minWSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F64°F62%1012.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY17 mi26 minVar 410.00 miFair80°F64°F60%1011.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY18 mi26 minSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F66°F58%1011.4 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ22 mi26 minWSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds78°F66°F67%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9W6W9W7W10W8W8NW6N10N6W6SW9SW12SW11S11S15S13S10SW8SW12SW9SW7SW8S6
1 day agoSE7S9S10S10S10S12S11S13S14
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2 days agoN3N6N9N8N7N6N6NE7NE7SE7SE10E8SE9SE8SE10SE11SE11SE8SE7SE6SE7SE6SE7SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Coney Island, New York
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Coney Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:01 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM EDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:06 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:29 PM EDT     6.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.30.11.22.53.84.95.45.14.12.71.40.3-0.30.11.22.74.25.46.16.15.33.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:25 AM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:06 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:21 PM EDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:43 PM EDT     2.31 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.4-2.2-1.7-0.90.31.41.81.81.20.1-1-1.8-2.3-2.2-1.7-10.11.52.22.31.90.9-0.4-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.