Monday, May21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Sewaren, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:14PM Monday May 21, 2018 10:07 PM EDT (02:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 1:22AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 801 Pm Edt Mon May 21 2018
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 801 Pm Edt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure pushes off the southern new england coast tonight. A warm front approaches from the southwest Tuesday, then lifts to the north Tuesday evening. A cold front then crosses the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure then builds in from the west through Thursday, then slides offshore into the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sewaren, NJ
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location: 40.55, -74.27     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 212356
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
756 pm edt Mon may 21 2018

High pressure moves off the southern new england coast tonight.

A warm front will lift through Tuesday afternoon followed by a
cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High
pressure returns behind the frontal passage and remains through
Saturday. Another frontal system impacts the area on Sunday and

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance.

Main change this update was to slow onset of precipitation per
latest high resolution models. Slight chance pops overnight now
restricted to orange county, with the remainder of the area
forecasted to be dry.

A northern stream 700-500 hpa shortwave ridge transits the
area, associated subsidence should keep things dry and at least
the first half of the night relatively cloud free. Based on
latest satellite imagery and timing of shortwave ridge, have
slowed onset of cloud cover tonight as well. Based on this, have
also lowered lows slightly, especially over eastern zones, as
will have longer to radiate there given a clear sky and light
winds. Lows tonight should be a few degrees above normal,
however if trends hold, might end up closer to normal over
eastern areas.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday
Warm front continues its approach Tuesday. Along this boundary, a
weak area of low pressure with an associated upper level short wave
develops over the ohio valley great lakes region and heads east into
central and northern new york Tuesday afternoon and evening. Much of
the heavier precipitation therefore should stay north of the area,
with generally light overrunning precipitation for our area in
association with the approach of the warm front. The warm front may
have a tough time making it north of the tri-state during the
day Tuesday, not lifting north until Tuesday night. Elevated
instability may spark off some thunderstorms, but nothing severe
is expected at this time. Locally heavy rain may accompany any
thunderstorm, with pwats 1.50- 1.75 inches (1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal, SPC sounding climatology page shows
this falls in higher than the 90th percentile. Bottom line is
that there could be isolated locations that receive over an inch
in association with thunderstorms) however, amounts should
average 0.25-0.50".

Cold front quickly moves through thereafter, with the front through
most, if not all the area by 8 am Wednesday. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the front, with chances for
precipitation decreasing late Tuesday night, generally after 2

As for temperatures, clouds and rain will limit highs on Tuesday to
the upper 60s to around 70, with cooler reading along the immediate
shore. Overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday will run slightly
above normal once again.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The cold front will be moving east of the tri-state area Wednesday
morning, with still a low chance of a shower mainly SE of the lower
hudson valley. Cold air advection behind the front will be weak, and
with a mostly sunny afternoon, high temperatures will be above
normal with most areas ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. High
pressure then passes through the region on Thursday and remains in
control on Friday. Dry weather continues both days with highs a
couple degrees above normal on Thursday, and then warming up even
more on Friday.

There remains some uncertainty for the holiday weekend as global
models and ensembles disagree on the surface features that would
impact our weather. Have gone closer to wpc ECMWF depiction of a
cold front dropping down from the north on Saturday and perhaps
stalling over us at some point on Sunday, remaining in the vicinity
into Monday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be present
all 3 days, but for now have the overall lowest chances during

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure moves off the coast of new england tonight. A
warm front approaches Tuesday.

Vfr through tonight and Tuesday morning. Conditions should
gradually fall to MVFR in the late morning and early afternoon
as showers develop. As the showers become more widespread in the
afternoon and evening, conditions will continue to lower with
ifr expected after 22z Tuesday. An isolated thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out Tuesday afternoon and evening.

S-se winds will diminish to around 5 kt at city terminals and
become light and variable elsewhere. E-ese winds 5 to 10 kt are
forecast on Tuesday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 9 mi49 min 66°F 62°F1021.1 hPa
MHRN6 9 mi49 min S 6 G 8.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 13 mi49 min S 8 G 9.9 63°F 1021.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 15 mi49 min SSW 7 G 8.9 63°F 64°F1022.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 17 mi49 min 65°F 59°F1021.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi49 min SSW 7 G 9.9 61°F 59°F1022.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi37 min S 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 55°F1021.3 hPa53°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi49 min S 5.1 G 6 64°F 63°F1022.1 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi91 min S 5.1 G 7 67°F 62°F1021 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ12 mi76 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F51°F55%1020.8 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ19 mi2.4 hrsS 415.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F50°F44%1020.7 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY22 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair66°F46°F49%1020.9 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ22 mi74 minS 410.00 miFair64°F55°F73%1020 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ23 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair70°F51°F51%1021.1 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ24 mi76 minS 610.00 miFair68°F46°F47%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN11N6NW5NW4NW6NW6N5N4N4N8NE9NE8NE63E4E4SE7S6SE8S11S9S7S7S8
1 day agoNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW12

Tide / Current Tables for Woodbridge Creek, 0.8 n.mi. above entrance, New Jersey
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Woodbridge Creek
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Mon -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:21 AM EDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:10 PM EDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
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Mon -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:40 AM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT     1.66 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:09 PM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.