Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 1:36 PM   Moonset 3:41 AM

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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1057 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Thursday through Thursday afternoon - .
Tonight - E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft late this evening, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Intermittent showers. Slight chance of tstms after midnight. Thu - E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of showers in the evening. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 4 ft. Chance of showers. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1057 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest through early Thursday but will become nearly stationary thereafter. High pressure briefly builds in for Thursday night into Friday before a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure then follows from Saturday afternoon through early next week. A weak frontal system will impact the region mid week.

FXUS61 KOKX 180310 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1110 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest and moves through the area into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Thursday night into Friday before a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure then follows from Saturday afternoon through early next week. A weak frontal system will impact the region mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/
Made some adjustments to POPs for rain showers as well as dewpoints. Also pushed back timing of slight chance thunder to just the overnight period from west to east. Temperatures are mainly on track.

An approaching warm front will lead to isentropic lift in association with overrunning moisture with rain showers across the region going into overnight. Instability will continue to be the challenge with the overall thunder potential but given that there has been some lightning upstream the forecast still includes a slight chance of some embedded thunderstorms overnight. Confidence is low (15%) on the likelihood of widespread mention of thunder especially with a modest low level inversion keeping much of the area stable. The 12z suite of CAMs still indicated the potential for some short lived embedded heavier showers moving through southwestern portions of the forecast area overnight tonight within the New York City metro area.

During the overnight expect the shower coverage to increase although decrease in intensity. As the WAA lift decreases, showers will transition from potentially heavy at times to more of a steady light rain.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Shower coverage looks to lower Thursday as isentropic lift weakens over the area and high pressure building in from the northeast brings in a cooler and drier air mass in the lower levels.

The high building in with the weak low to our south will mean a strengthening easterly flow develops across the area that starts to increase late tonight. It does not look to be overly windy, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 mph by Thursday morning. Winds start to decrease Thursday afternoon as the high continues to nose into the region, with the weak low well out to sea by this point.

The easterly flow will also mean cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Mainly dry conditions from Thursday night (except perhaps some lingering showers for eastern areas) through Friday morning with high pressure over the region. The chances for showers increase Friday afternoon and Friday night as the associated cold front approaches and begins to move through late Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Little change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the previous forecast/NBM.

A cold front approaches and passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture will deepen along with a chance of showers with its passage. High pressure then builds in behind the front with dry weather for Saturday afternoon. The high will continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend and remain in control of the weather through Monday.
High temperatures near normal on Saturday, but cooling off slightly for Sunday. Temperatures rebound a few degrees on Monday.

A 500mb trough then shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with an associated weak surface low and cold front. It appears that we should by dry through the day, but cannot rule out a shower for western zones by the end of the day. Rain chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures remain in the lower and middle 60s.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Persistent pattern during the TAF period with low pressure and a warm front approaching but staying south and west of the region with high pressure to the northeast of the region.

Rain showers are intermittent but eventually will become more steady overnight. The rain could be more moderate to heavy late tonight and there also could be an isolated embedded thunderstorm as well. Conditions becoming more MVFR this evening with lowering expected to IFR overnight.

Rain showers still expected for early Thursday but will become more intermittent with rain not as likely Thursday afternoon but there will still be a chance. Mainly IFR conditions are expected.

The IFR will be mainly for ceilings with visibilities expected to be MVFR to VFR within the TAF period.

Wind direction will be SE to E tonight and then more E to ENE Thursday. Wind speeds will be near 10 kt tonight and then increase Thursday to near 12-15 kt with gusts mainly in the 20-25 kt range. KSWF expected to have lower winds near 10 kts or less without gusts during the TAF period.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of IFR start and end time could be a few hours off from TAF. There could be fluctuation between MVFR and IFR overnight into Thursday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thu night: Showers end with slowly improving conditions Thursday night. MVFR conditions with a chance of IFR. E-ENE wind gusts 15-20 kt in evening will diminish overnight.

Fri: VFR early, then MVFR afternoon and at night with a chance of showers.

Sat: MVFR with showers ending in the early morning, becoming VFR. W-WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sun through Mon: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria. However, easterly winds will increase tonight as strengthening high pressure builds in, and by late tonight will likely reach 25 kt on the ocean waters and the entrance to the harbor. A few hours later, all waters will see SCA wind gusts by early Thursday. A SCA is in effect for all waters for Thursday. LI Sound and LI Bays have SCA just for Thursday and other marine zones (ocean and NY Harbor) have SCA begin at 06Z Thursday and go through the day Thursday.

Winds gusts diminish Thursday night as the high continues to build in over the area. Non ocean waters will likely drop below 25 kt early Thursday night. The ocean waters will likely have SCA gusts hang on for the first few hours of Thursday night before they also come down below 25 kt.

Seas build to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean by Thursday morning into the afternoon, diminishing thereafter. However, they remain above or right around 5 ft Thursday night, so an extension to the SCA over the ocean may be needed for Thursday night and perhaps into Friday with a persistent, though slowly weakening easterly flow. Waves finally drop below 5 ft on the ocean by Friday night.

High pressure building over the area waters Saturday through the first part of next week should keep conditions sub-advisory waters through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels for Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to approach.

HYDROLOGY
There is the potential for 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall through Thursday afternoon. Although a brief heavy shower is possible, no hydrologic impacts are expected with this event and thereafter through the first half of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331- 332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ338- 350-353-355.

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Long Beach (outer coast)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:09 AM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:55 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:04 PM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Beach (outer coast), Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:19 AM EDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:45 PM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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