Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 1:21 PM EST (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1251 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas building to 8 to 13 ft in the morning, then subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft after midnight.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of snow showers. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of snow and rain showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 1251 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach from the west into tonight with a wave of low pressure riding along it to our north Thursday morning. The low will drag the cold front across the region Thursday afternoon. High pressure will then build into the region Thursday night and remain nearby through Saturday. A cold front will approach and move across the area on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, NY
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location: 40.59, -73.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231750
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1250 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A frontal system will approach today into tonight with a wave of low
pressure riding along it to our north Thursday morning. The low will
drag a cold front across the region Thursday afternoon. High pressure
will then build into the region Thursday night and remain
nearby through Saturday. A cold front will approach and move
across the area on Sunday. Another cold front and low pressure
system will move across the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Spotty radar returns have developed over western northern zones,
however so far have yet to see any evidence of precipitation
being reported at the various ASOS they have passed over.

However, cannot have 100% confidence that no precipitation is
reaching the ground, so have increased pops to slight chance
early this afternoon and issued an sps for patchy freezing rain
for orange county where there are areas with temperatures still
at or below freezing. Given the t-td spread, could also see some
spotty reports of sleet with these returns.

Highs this afternoon should range from the mid-upper 30s across
the NW zones to the lower 40s for coastal zones.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Light rain spreads across the area tonight, and at the same time,
temperatures continue to rise on a s-sw wind flow. There's still
some concern that parts of the far NW zones could have surface temps
supportive of freezing rain at the time when rain becomes likely, so
will need to keep close watch on this potential.

Rain becomes more moderate early Thursday morning, and could be
heavy at times by mid-morning with strong isentropic lift and an
impressive llj. Approaching shortwave energy should enhance forced
ascent and also create weak destabilization aloft, increasing the
chances of heavier downpours. After collaboration with the
surrounding office, have issued a flash flood watch for Thursday.

Smaller stream and urban poor drainage flooding would be the main
threat. Timing of the greatest flood threat looks like morning to
midday. A cold front passes through during the afternoon with rain
probably coming to an end not too long after the passage, however a
strong upper jet streak shifts in with enhanced lift, continuing at
least chances of additional pcpn. Could be cold enough for a
mixlight rain has developed over far western zones of rain and
snow for far NW areas late-day.

It should also become breezy, especially near the coast. Strong
winds with the LLJ will be not too far above the surface, however
with such a strong inversion, thinking is that none of the area
would likely see advisory-level gusts.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
High pressure builds into the area behind a departing cold front
Thursday night and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in dry and cold conditions. Highs on Friday will climb into
the lower and middle 30s, while highs will struggle to get out of the
20s on Saturday.

The high moves offshore Saturday night, allowing a an upper level
shortwave and associated surface cold front to move across the area
on Sunday. This could result in a few snow showers, will keep pops
at chance or slight chance for now. No accumulations at this time are
expected with any of the snow showers.

A stronger shortwave and associated frontal system will move across
the area early next week, bringing yet another chance of
precipitation to the region. There are differences with the exact
track and placement with this next system, so details remain
somewhat sketchy.

Temperatures on Sunday through Tuesday will climb 30s and lower
40s.

Light rain has developed over far western zones

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
A frontal system will approach today into tonight with a wave of low
pressure riding along it to our north Thursday morning.

Ceilings generally 025-035 should persist into the evening,
with the lowest ceilings expected across kswf, khpn, kewr and
kteb. MVFR ceilings will gradually move into the remainder of
the terminals this evening. Thereafter, ifr or lower develops
later this evening in steadier light rain, becoming increasingly
prevailing after midnight as rain intensity increases. At
least initially, a wintry mix is possible at kswf through around
21z.

S SW winds 10 kt will increase to 10-15 kt and with occasional gusts
to near 20 kt possible for south coastal terminals. S winds 10
to 15 kt for coastal terminals tonight, increasing to 15 to 25
kt towards the Thursday morning push. Llws from SW winds of
50-60kt@2 kft developing for coastal terminals by evening,
strengthening to near 60-70kt, especially from kjfk eastward.

Winds then shift to wnw and remain strong following the frontal
passage Thursday, from west to east between 17-20z. Conditions
will gradually improve to MVFR toVFR following the passage.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 15 mi31 min SSW 16 G 18 40°F 42°F4 ft1024.3 hPa30°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 17 mi33 min 37°F 37°F1023.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi33 min SSW 8 G 9.9 38°F 32°F1025.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi33 min SSE 5.1 G 6 36°F 1024.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 22 mi39 min 39°F 36°F1023.9 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi33 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 38 mi31 min SW 12 G 16 43°F 41°F5 ft1024.6 hPa (-3.3)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi30 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F24°F53%1024.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi30 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast39°F18°F43%1023.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY18 mi90 minno data10.00 miOvercast37°F19°F48%1024.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY20 mi28 minSSW 1110.00 miOvercast39°F21°F50%1024.1 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW64N6SW7SW6SW7W7SW3S5S9SW10SW14SW15SW13SW14S17S16SW13SW13S11SW7SW9SW6SW7
1 day agoW25
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NW9NW11NW11NW9NW11W7
2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway Inlet, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway Inlet
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Wed -- 02:58 AM EST     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:05 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     5.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:39 PM EST     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:49 PM EST     4.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.4-0.6-0.9-0.50.82.33.84.75.24.93.92.61.2-0.1-1-1.1-0.40.92.33.54.34.54

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
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Wed -- 01:05 AM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:56 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     1.17 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:05 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:32 PM EST     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:45 PM EST     1.13 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:28 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.400.30.71.110.50.1-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.511.10.70.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.