Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:30PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:45 PM EST (23:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:30AMMoonset 4:09PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 627 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through late Saturday night...
Tonight..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Snow early this evening, then chance of snow late this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ300 627 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will move off the middle atlantic this evening and offshore tonight. A series of weak low pressure and frontal systems passing through the area this weekend through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, NY
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location: 40.59, -73.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 152123
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
423 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move off the middle atlantic this evening and
offshore tonight. A series of weak low pressure and frontal
systems will pass through the area this weekend through mid
week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Snow continues to overspread the tri-state area. Impacts to the
evening commute are anticipated, with potential for significant
impacts within the winter weather advisory area. No changes
were made to the headlines.

The only change made to the snowfall forecast was across
southern coastal long island where some locations could approach
4 inches. This is due to increasing potential for moderate snow
banding in conjunction with best frontogenesis this evening.

There is a bit of uncertainty in how much snow will fall across
ne nj and interior of the lower hudson valley and southern
connecticut. It is possible amounts could end up lower with
minimal impact since best lift appears to be setting up just
south, within the advisory area.

Divergence aloft is impressive as a 170-180 kt jet streak moves
across the middle atlantic. Our region will be located in the
favored left exit region for synoptic lift this evening. There
will also be interaction phasing of the northern and southern
stream, which combined with the upper jet dynamics, will
continue to organize a surface low off the middle atlantic coast
this evening and then south and east of long island overnight.

Mesoscale models continue to indicate a swath of strong 850-700
mb frontogenesis across the southern portion of the area. The
lift coincides within the dendritic growth zone which may
enhance snowfall and produce banding, especially across long
island.

Thermodynamic profiles do not show much liquid water saturation
aloft for riming, so the snow will be a dry, high ratio type
similar to what we observed Thursday morning. Ratios may be
15-18:1. Surface temperatures will fall into the middle and
upper 20s as the snow begins continues to fall.

The snow tapers off around 7-9pm in nyc and around midnight on
the east end of long island. Liquid equivalent amounts around
0.05 inches inland and close to 0.20 inches are forecast across
long island.

Clearing and increasing winds are expected tonight behind the
departing low as the pressure gradient tightens between the
strengthening departing low, and strong high pressure over the
se us. Another chilly night with lows in the ranging from upper
teens well inland to mid 20s at the coast.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Polar upper low pivots southeast into new england on Sat and
offshore Saturday night. Wnw CAA low flow over the great lakes,
accompanied by shortwave lift and left front of 150 kt jet
streak, should be enough to extend light snow shower activity
into the region later Sat morning through Sat afternoon. A
dusting is possible in spots, particularly NW hills.

Otherwise, breezy and chilly on Sat with abundant cloud cover
and glancing caa. Temps will likely hold in the lower to mid 30s
for much of the region, with windchills in the 20s.

Shortwave slides east Sat night, with high pressure building in
from the west. This will have snow showers tapering from W to e
early in the evening, with potential for good radiational
cooling conds for outlying areas later Sat night. Temps should
fall into the teens for outlying areas, with mid-upper 20s for
urban centers.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Models in good agreement with a fairly progressive upper
pattern in place through this period, with a series of weak
frontal systems moving through the region Sunday night through
midweek as a muted northern stream longwave trough slides from
the great lakes into the northeast.

First system of note will be Sunday night into Monday as the
closed low currently over baja mexico, shears towards the ne
ahead of a developing western us trough. Models differing in
the strength of this energy and amounts of moisture drawn
northward, but potential exists for a light precip event Sunday
night into Monday morning. Thermal profiles suggest a start as
snow or wintry mix, transitioning to rain for nyc li, but
potentially remaining a wintry mix for the interior into Monday
morning. Too early for specific details on this light precip
event, but potential exists for hazardous travel conditions
n&nw of nyc LI for Monday morning commute.

Thereafter, models in fairly good agreement with the broad bu
shallow northern stream trough approaching the region on
Tuesday and sliding through during the midweek. At the surface,
the primary low pressure system rides through quebec ontario
with trailing cold front approaching the region Tuesday night.

Overall, appears to be mainly a light QPF event for the Monday
night into Tuesday evening period, due to limited interaction
between northern and southern stream. Thermal profile suggests
precip would be mainly liquid, but could be dealing with
freezing rain across interior Monday night as cold air
typically has a tough time scouring our in this setup.

Upper trough swings through the NE Tue night into Wed with a
glancing shot of modifying arctic air in the wake of the cold
front for Wed thu.

Upper flow flattens and even becomes a bit ridged for Thursday
ahead of the next northern stream trough digging into the upper
plains, which should allow for a moderation in temps ahead of
next potential frontal system.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
***snow expected for evening push***
low pressure passes to the south this evening before quickly
ejecting eastward overnight.

Snow is already overspreading the area, and although initial
conditions areVFR, expect visibilities to quickly drop as snow
intensifies. Steadier snow will generally fall from around 20z, then
quickly end from west to east between 02-05z.

Expect a widespread 1-4 inches, with the highest totals across the
nyc terminals into kisp, kbdr and kgon.

Light and variable winds become westerly at 5-10 kt this evening.

Winds increase tonight with some gusts to 20kt after midnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 15 mi45 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 24°F 42°F1014.1 hPa (-0.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 15 mi55 min WNW 12 G 14 28°F 50°F1 ft1012.9 hPa (-0.5)28°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi45 min NW 7 G 8.9 24°F 39°F1014.2 hPa (-0.4)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 17 mi45 min 24°F 46°F1013.9 hPa (-0.5)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi45 min W 8 G 8.9 23°F 1014 hPa (-0.5)
44022 - Execution Rocks 20 mi45 min W 5.8 G 7.8 26°F 23°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 22 mi45 min 23°F 44°F1013.5 hPa (-0.4)
MHRN6 23 mi45 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 38 mi55 min WNW 7.8 G 12 31°F 51°F2 ft1012.7 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N16
G20
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G13
N7
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W1
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1 day
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NW17
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G26
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G6
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G14
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N17
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2 days
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NW14
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G28
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G31
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NW23
G30
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G31
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G30
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NW23
NW17
G23
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G26

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi54 minW 80.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F23°F92%1013.7 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi54 minVar 40.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F21°F88%1013.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY18 mi54 minWNW 41.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist24°F19°F84%1012.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY20 mi52 minW 51.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F23°F92%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15NW12NW13NW10NW11NW11NW9NW8NW11NW7NW6NW4N3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4N4W6W8
1 day agoW19
G27
W20W16
G25
W11W13W15
G21
W6NE3NE4NE6NE8NE6NE5N6N10N12N9N12NW15NW14W16
G24
NW16NW16NW14
G24
2 days agoW17
G24
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G35
NW21
G29
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G26
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W16
G25
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G31
W18
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W20
G28

Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway Inlet, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:32 AM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:45 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:52 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.91.92.93.84.44.43.9320.90.2-00.41.22.133.63.83.42.61.80.90.2

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:01 AM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:27 AM EST     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:26 PM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:54 PM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.10.60.90.70.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.2-00.40.90.90.50.20-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.