Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 2:40 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 553 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Today - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely this morning. Chance of drizzle late this morning and afternoon. Chance of showers this afternoon. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Fri - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 553 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A slow moving warm front stalls south of the area today before heading back south as a cold front this afternoon. High pressure briefly builds in for Thursday night into Friday before a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure then follows from Saturday afternoon through early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 181014 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 614 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest and moves through the area into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Thursday night into Friday before a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure then follows from Saturday afternoon through early next week. A weak frontal system will impact the region mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast is on track with only minor changes needed. Previous discussion follows.

Stacked low over south central Canada will move slowly ENE today, with high amplitude upper level ridging over the northeast slowly moving east. additionally, upper level ridging over the eastern Great Lakes region shifts eastward today. At the surface, a warm front continues its approach but looks to stall to the southwest. A weak area of low pressure forms along this boundary and treks southeast.

Chances for showers will continue today, but will slowly diminish over the area as high pressure from southeastern Canada noses into the Northeast. This, coupled with an incoming ridge aloft will bring in just enough subsidence to bring showers to an end over much of the forecast area by late this afternoon. Showers may transition to just some drizzle given the abundant low level moisture with the maritime high building in.

The high building in with the weak low to our south will mean a strengthening easterly flow today. It does not look to be overly windy, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 mph along coastal sections this morning. Winds start to decrease this afternoon as the high continues to nose into the region, with the weak low well out to sea by this point.

The easterly flow will also mean cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
The high continues building into the region Thursday night into Friday morning as the ridge axis pushes east, so dry conditions expected through this time frame. The warm front gets suppressed to the south due to the building high, but at the same time, the cold front associated with the low in Canada advances east.
However, as the cold front pushes east the line of showers and thunderstorms associated with it over the central Great Lakes region weakens as it moves over the eastern Great Lakes. Further weakening is expected as it runs into the high over the Northeast, so just chance to slight chance for showers are expected as this line moves through Friday night and Saturday morning (lingering showers for eastern areas).

Temperatures recover somewhat on Friday, with highs in the 50s region-wide. Even warmer conditions expected for Saturday with a westerly flow and downsloping conditions expected after the passage of the cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance for highs, which are expected to be in the middle to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the second half of the weekend and remain in control of the weather through Tuesday.

A 500mb trough then shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with an associated weak surface low and cold front. Rain chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as this system moves across the region.
Drier weather returns for Thursday.

Temperatures will be just below normal on Sunday. Temperatures rebound a few degrees on Monday through Wednesday with temperatures at or just above normal. Temperatures fall back a degree or two below normal behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures each day will be in the upper 50s or 60s.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Persistent pattern during the TAF period with low pressure and a warm front approaching but staying south and west of the region with high pressure to the northeast of the region.

MVFR or IFR everywhere to start with more widespread IFR towards the second half of the night and into Thursday morning. Rain showers are intermittent but eventually will become more steady for the second half of the overnight period. Also, the rain may be locally moderate to heavy at times. Can not rule out an isolated embedded thunderstorm as well, however timing and confidence too low to include in the TAF.

Rain showers will remain in the forecast through at least 18z, however, they may be more intermittent. Rain chances lower further this afternoon. Mainly IFR conditions are expected, however improvement to MVFR late can not be ruled out.

Conditions start to improve late this evening and overnight to MVFR then VFR for most terminals. Timing however amendments are likely to adjust the timing.

Wind direction will be E to ENE for much of the TAF period.
Wind speeds will be near 10 kt tonight and then increase Thursday to near 12-15 kt with gusts mainly in the 20-25 kt range. KSWF expected to have lower winds near 10 kts or less without gusts during the TAF period.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thu night: Showers end with slowly improving conditions Thursday night. Improvement to MVFR then VFR expected.

Fri: VFR early, then MVFR afternoon and at night with a chance of showers.

Sat: MVFR with showers ending in the early morning, becoming VFR. W-WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sun through Mon: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Easterly winds will increase today with 25 to 30 kt gusts expected on all waters as high pressure builds in from the northeast.

Wind gusts diminish tonight as the high continues to build in over the area. Non ocean waters will likely drop below 25 kt early early tonight. The ocean waters will likely have SCA gusts hang on for the first few hours of Thursday night before they also come down below 25 kt.

Seas build to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean by this morning into the afternoon, diminishing thereafter. However, they remain above or right around 5 ft tonight into Friday. Have extended the SCA on the ocean waters through tonight, but may need to extend the SCA over the ocean into Friday with a persistent, though slowly weakening easterly flow. Waves finally drop below 5 ft on the ocean by Friday night.

High pressure will continue to build over the area waters for the second half of the weekend and into the first part of next week.
This should keep conditions at sub-advisory level through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels for Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to approach.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through trough next Thursday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Fort Hamilton, The Narrows, New York, Tide feet

The Narrows
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Thu -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:07 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:46 PM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:28 PM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
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The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current, knots

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