Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:08PM Thursday March 21, 2019 11:34 AM EDT (15:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1044 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ300 1044 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south today before passing through late tonight. Deepening low pressure then lifts to the north Friday and into Saturday as high pressure builds over the waters Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Island Park, NY
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location: 40.6, -73.65     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211516
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1116 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will approach from the south through Thursday, and
pass through late Thursday night, then intensify as it moves
slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes Friday into
Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west Saturday
night through Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front on
Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Adjusted rain chances and amounts during the daytime hours
based on latest radar obs. Expecting rain for most of the
forecast area into early afternoon. Thereafter, just chances of
rain east of the city, and occasional rain likely elsewhere.

Rain will be mostly light to moderate. Any heavier downpour
potential would be brief, and perhaps more likely to occur
towards sunset as better lift and moisture convergence approach.

It still appears that NE nj will likely fall short of ffg
values, so no flash flood watches anticipated for now. Should
any type of flooding occur before sundown, it would more likely
be of nuisance poor drainage variety. Temperatures hold nearly
steady in the 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The storm system will get further north by late Friday night,
especially after 9z, and this is when the rain will taper off
from southwest to northeast. A tongue of drier air will wrap in
quickly behind the departing low during the mid morning on
Friday. The winds will pick up more noticeably towards the late
morning, and especially during the afternoon. Downsloping flow
may allow temperatures to hover around 50 momentarily into the
early afternoon, but then the CAA will get going and
temperatures will trail off late in the day and into Friday
evening. An strong spoke of upper level energy will dive into
the departing storm system and give it another jolt. At this
point the storm will be too far north to impact the region in
terms of any meaningful precipitation, but the storm will
intensify rapidly in the gulf of maine late on Friday and this
will lead to increasing winds due to an increasing pressure
gradient developing over the region.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
An anomalous upper low with 500 mb height anomalies 2 to 3 standard
deviations below normal moves across the northeast Friday night. The
upper low will lift towards the canadian maritimes on Saturday. The
main surface low pressure, around 980 mb, is progged to be near
maine Friday night. The surface gets captured by the deep upper low
Saturday morning as the system slowly moves the canadian maritimes.

As the upper low moves across the region Friday night, a few showers
cannot be ruled out. Temperature profiles north and west of the city
support the possibility of a few snow showers. The other story will
be strengthening NW winds Friday night into Saturday as the pressure
gradient tightens between the departing low and building high
pressure to the west. Expect sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts
30 to 40 mph late Friday night. Sustained winds may increase a bit
Saturday morning to 20-30 mph and gusts could reach 40-45 mph,
especially at the coast. Thinking the winds should stay under
advisory levels at most locations. Forecast winds in the mixed
layer per NAM and GFS bufkit profiles are strongest Saturday
morning, with weakening winds in the afternoon. This should
translate to weaker sustained winds and gusts 30-35 mph in the
afternoon.

The pressure gradient continues to weaken Saturday night into Sunday
as surface high builds to our south and west. Upper ridging attempts
to build across the ohio valley, but the height field gets suppressed
from another upper low diving south out of southeast canada. This
upper low ultimately stays well to our north and east, but will send
a shortwave and its attendant cold front towards the region on
Monday. Models have come into somewhat better agreement on a wave of
low pressure developing on the front Monday evening as it moves off
the new england coast. The front brings with it a chance of showers
Monday afternoon and evening. There is also support aloft from a
strong upper jet across northern new england. Have increased pops to
high chance for now.

The front moves offshore Monday night with the upper trough axis
following on Tuesday. There is good agreement for sprawling high
pressure to settle over the eastern states for the middle week with
ridging building aloft.

Temperatures will be below normal in the 40s on Saturday, but then
will moderate into the 50s on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures drop
back below normal Tuesday into Wednesday.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Low pressure approaches from the south today and passes overhead
late tonight.

Easterly winds increase thru this afternoon. Speeds increase to
14-20 kt late today and this evening with gusts 20-25 kt. These
easterly winds back around to the NE N overnight. Low level
wind shear is expected this evening for most coastal terminals
as a 40 to 50 kt jet moves into the area at 1-2 kft.

Ceilings could bounce between 2-3 kft to 3-4 kft today.

However, eastern terminals kisp and especially kgon could remain
rain free andVFR through most of the afternoon.

Rain becomes steadier thru the day, slowly expanding east late
this aftn and eve. MVFR ceilings lower to ifr late in the day
or this evening. These lowering conditions persist tonight, with
lifr possible in spots.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi34 min ENE 16 G 18 44°F 42°F1018.1 hPa (-1.9)41°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi46 min ENE 6 G 7 41°F 40°F1020.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 21 mi46 min 46°F 42°F1019 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi46 min ENE 9.9 G 16 43°F 44°F1019.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi46 min E 11 G 13 46°F 1019.6 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi46 min ENE 7 G 8.9
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi44 min E 12 G 14 44°F 41°F4 ft1018.6 hPa (-0.8)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi52 min E 7 G 12 40°F1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY8 mi43 minE 1110.00 miLight Rain47°F44°F90%1019.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi41 minE 910.00 miOvercast46°F41°F83%1019.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY17 mi43 minNE 127.00 miLight Rain42°F39°F89%1019.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY21 mi43 minVar 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F42°F93%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8S12S12S15S14S14S13SE10SE10SE7SE5E4E3E3E5E5E5E6E5E8E8E8E10E11
1 day ago4W7S12S12SW14S12SW16S12S11S10S9SW7SW7SW6SW5S3SW3S3CalmSE4S4SW7SW7S6
2 days agoCalmW7SW8S9SW10
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S13S13S14S12S9SW8SW5SW5SW6W5CalmN9N5N7N5N7N7NW3W6

Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Long Island, New York
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Long Beach
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Thu -- 02:52 AM EDT     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:08 AM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.5-0.5-0.9-0.40.82.33.64.654.73.72.31-0.2-0.9-0.80.11.534.24.954.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:31 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:57 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.51.11.20.70.3-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.3-00.30.81.20.90.40-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.