Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:30PM Friday June 23, 2017 1:06 PM EDT (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 5:07AMMoonset 7:59PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Numerous showers late this morning, then scattered showers with isolated tstms early this afternoon. Isolated showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1003 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches tonight and moves across the area Saturday. A series of weak fronts move through the area Sunday through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Island Park, NY
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location: 40.6, -73.65     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231423
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1023 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will be well north of the region today. A cold
front approaches tonight and moves across the area Saturday. A
series of frontal boundaries will move across the tri-state area
Sunday through Tuesday. A large area of high pressure builds in
thereafter.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Adjusted pops for showers late this morning into start of
the afternoon to be more confined with the higher coverage
towards nyc and to the north and west. This is consistent with
the mesoscale models forecast of reflectivity in the same time
window. To the east, expecting mainly dry conditions to
continue. Temperatures were adjusted slightly higher to better
match observed trends this morning. Otherwise, no other
remarkable changes made to the forecast database.

The region will be between bermuda ridging and deepening
northern stream longwave trough across the north central us
today... With one distinct southern stream shortwave riding
northeast this morning and then several weaker vorts riding
northeast later today. At the surface... A warm front washes
out pushes north of the region this morning... With likely pre-
frontal trough development in the lee of the appalachians this
afternoon.

Deep southwest flow with sub-tropical connection will result in
an increasingly moist and humid airmass working into the region
today.

The initial shortwave rides north through the region this morning
into early afternoon. LLJ forcing weakens as this activity works
towards the region... But a marginally unstable and moist airmass in
place should support scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity to work northeast through the region. Overall appears
to be a marginal instability with moderate shear
situation... Which presents only a low probability of an
isolated strong to severe storm.

In the wake of this shortwave... Potential for partial clearing and
additional destabilization late this afternoon early evening across
nyc metro and points n&w. Although moderate instability uni-
directional shear levels could exists during this time... Appears to
be lack of a distinct focus or trigger for convection until the
evening. In fact... Subsidence and weak mid-level capping may
limit convective activity across the region until late. Based on
instability shear environment there is a threat for isolated
strong to severe storms during this time... Conditional on
sufficient heating and development along any differential
heating boundaries or elevation.

Otherwise... Considerable cloudiness and convective debris today
will keep temps in the lower to mid 80s for most of the region.

If enough breaks in the clouds materialize... Temps could rise
into the upper 80s across nyc metro and points n&w.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development today, due
to building southerly winds waves and a 2 ft long period se
swell.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Northern stream longwave trough continues to deepen into the
upper mississippi river valley and great lakes through the
period... With the shortwave remnants of cindy shearing northeast
towards the region late tonight into Saturday morning. At the
surface... A cold front over the great lakes will slide east
towards the region tonight... With the remnant circulation of
cindy riding NE towards the region along the front.

Leading edge of southern stream shortwave energy and pre-
frontal trough approach the region this evening. Will have to
watch for convection developing over central eastern pa this
afternoon... And whether line segments can translate east in the
moderate mid- level flow into the lower hudson valley NE nj
before instability begins to wane. A conditional low threat for
severe winds gusts exists mainly NW & W of nyc if this activity
survives.

The parade of shortwaves late evening into the overnight and
tropical airmass will keep a threat for iso convection with
heavy downpours overnight. Coastal stratus fog development
possible with high dewpoint airmass advecting across E LI se
ct late today this evening.

Main concern during this period will be approach of cold front
and remnant low of cindy late tonight Saturday morning.

Environment presents a threat for flash flooding along and just
to the south of the path of this low... With pwats in excess of
2+ inches and corfidi vectors indicating potential for slow
moving or back building convective elements. Also can't rule out
an isolated severe wind tornado threat if any MCS type activity
develops in a weak instability but high shear helicity and low-
lcl environment.

745am update... 06z guidance is indicating that this feature may
track to the south of the region. If 12z guidance continues
with this theme... The above mentioned severe flash flood threat
may end up south of the region.

Drying conditions in the wake of the cold front and cindy
circulation Saturday afternoon... With highs in the mid to upper
80s.

A high risk of rip current is likely Saturday with building
southerly swells and wind waves.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Nwp is in agreement that a broad upper level trough will remain east
of the rockies into early next week. The h5 flow then flattens from
west to east as a cutoff low pres system moves through the western
canadian provinces... Eventually consolidating with a vortex over
northern quebec. This will sharpen the trough with its axis passing
through Tue night followed by weak ridging for the remainder of the
forecast period.

In terms of sensible weather... Not a whole lot to talk about. A
few cool frontal boundaries will pass through the local
area... The first Sunday aftn eve with just a chance of isold
showers. Mid level warming will keep instability in check so no
tstms in the forecast.

The second boundary approaches on Monday and is very slow to
move through the area. It may become hung up... Before pushing
east Tue night. Despite a decent shortwave and being in the rrq
of a 120+ kt upper jet... Moisture looks very meager... Thus have
kept the forecast dry. Moisture is still limited on tue... But
there could be enough for isold showers tstms in the aftn.

Dry and seasonable weather then returns for the remainder of the
forecast period.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
A warm front moves well north of the region today establishing
a moist SW flow.

MainlyVFR. Areas of MVFR are possible later today with CIGS around
2500 ft and shra moving through for the late morning and early
afternoon. There is also some potential for eastern terminals to
briefly go to MVFR in the late afternoon due to low stratus. For now
the tafs indicateVFR because coverage is in question and too
uncertain at this time. More widespread subVFR conditions are
expected late in the TAF period.

There will be a chance of isold-sct shwrs thru the day (Friday),
with the best potential for thunderstorms after 19z, particularly
in areas along and west of the hudson river.

The sea breeze may attempt to back winds closer to the south
again after 16z today for eastern terminals.

A chance at perhaps scattered thunderstorm coverage towards the
evening push for the city terminals.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi77 min SSW 14 G 16 69°F 67°F2 ft1008.5 hPa (-1.5)68°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi55 min WSW 15 G 19 78°F 65°F1007.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 20 mi67 min S 12 G 14 77°F 70°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi55 min SW 15 G 18 77°F 75°F1007.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 21 mi55 min 76°F 69°F1007.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi61 min SW 13 G 19 1008.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 25 mi52 min SSW 12 G 18 76°F 71°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 26 mi55 min 81°F 71°F1007.5 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi61 min SSW 9.9 G 17
44069 31 mi67 min SW 16 G 18 72°F 76°F71°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi77 min SSW 18 G 19 71°F 69°F3 ft1008.5 hPa (-1.4)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi55 min S 8 G 15 75°F 1006.9 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY8 mi76 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F82%1008.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY17 mi76 minS 11 G 2110.00 miOvercast84°F73°F70%1007.5 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY21 mi76 minSW 78.00 miFair81°F72°F74%1007.6 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S11S11S7S15S14S13S5S7S6S6S5S3S5S4S6SW7SW4S7S6S11S8S9S11
1 day agoSW13SW13
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SW12S12S11S12SW15SW12SW10S9SW11SW9W7NW3N6N3N3NE4E3E43SE9S11S10
2 days agoSW19
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Long Island, New York
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Long Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:57 AM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:58 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8-0.2-0.5-0.10.92.13.24.14.54.13.21.90.8-0.1-0.5-0.112.43.84.95.45.34.53.2

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:54 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:06 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.511.10.70.2-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.300.30.81.20.90.3-0-0.3-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.