Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Hampton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:12PM Saturday May 25, 2019 10:55 PM EDT (02:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:07AMMoonset 11:20AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ350 Moriches Inlet Ny To Montauk Point Ny Out 20 Nm- 1010 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers. Scattered showers with isolated tstms late.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1010 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will approach tonight and move through by Sunday morning. A trailing cold front will pass through Sunday evening, followed by weak high pressure on Monday. A warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just south of long island. The front should lift through from Wednesday night into Thursday morning, followed by a approaching cold front later Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Hampton, NY
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location: 40.61, -71.94     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260231
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1031 pm edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will approach tonight and move through by Sunday
morning. A trailing cold front will pass through Sunday
evening, followed by weak high pressure on memorial day. Another
warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and
remain just south into Wednesday night as weak low pressure
moves along the front just south of long island. The front
should lift through by Thursday morning, followed by a cold
frontal approach later Thursday. The front may linger into
Friday, then weak high pressure may build in to start next
weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Line of convection approaching from the west is encountering a
more stable airmass and is weakening. Shortwave energy will
move across overnight as a warm front moves through the region.

The approach of the shortwave and some upper jet energy along
with higher theta-e air should be enough to support sct showers
and isolated TSTM activity from W to E overnight, mainly after
midnight.

Temps and dewpoints should be on the rise late tonight after
warm fropa, with rising into the 60s and 55-60 respectively
late.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Warmest day of the season expected Sunday. After some early
morning stratus, clearing skies, deep mixing and an already warm
air mass in wake of warm FROPA should allow for rapid heating
Sunday morning into early afternoon. Temps across NE nj and nyc
metro should be able to rise into the lower 90s. Immediate south
coasts will likely be limited to upper 70s lower 80s with sw
component to flow and hybrid afternoon sea breeze development
ahead of thermal troughing and approach of cold front.

Elsewhere, widespread mid to upper 80 degree temps, locally 90
degrees. These temps will be about 15-20 degrees above
seasonable.

A cold front approaches from the NW and moves through late Sunday
evening. Ahead of it a weak thermal trough will develop across the
region. Although surface heating will be strong, with marginal to
locally moderate surface instability development in a strong deep
layer shear environment, rather strong 750-850 mb capping,
subsident flow, and late approach of shortwave forcing cold
front, will keep the potential for shra tsra activity along the
thermal trough quite low.

Will mainly have to watch if any activity gets triggered along the
pre-frontal trough across central eastern pa Sun afternoon where
capping will be weaker, and based on steering flow could advect into
the western and southwestern portions of the tri-state region late
Sunday early Sunday evening. If an isolated storm is able to
maintain itself into western portions of the region, strong to
damaging wind gusts would be the main threat given modeled shear
values and dry sub-cloud layer inverted-v profile. But probability
is low at this time.

Otherwise, any MCS activity over the ohio valley Sunday, should
target towards mid-atlantic area Sunday evening with high theta-
e instability axis. An isolated shra possible with cold frontal
passage.

Shortwave stream and cold front push through Sunday night with drier
and seasonably mild weather returning.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development on Sunday.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Much of this week will feature quasi-zonal flow aloft, with flat
ridging to the south, and a series of passing shortwave troughs
along with a nearby sfc warm front bringing inclement wx at
times beginning late Mon night. The warm front will approach
late Mon night into Tue with showers, also perhaps a few tstms
by Tue evening as mid levels destabilize, but remain just south
as a weak sfc low develops along it and ripples eastward.

The front should remain south until thu, with one more accompanying
round of showers tstms Wed night, then lift through Thu morning as
the flow aloft amplifies just enough in response to a weakening
upper low shearing out into the plains states. This should make thu
the warmest day of the upcoming work week, with highs in the 80s,
which along with dewpoints in the lower 60s, should provide
sufficient instability for afternoon evening tstms ahead of an
approaching cold front. Storms with the front could be strong
per ECMWF gfs consensus, with sfc-based LI -4c to -6c, mid
level flow 40-50 kt, and maglenta and sweat indices as low as 3
and nearing 300 respectively. Some recent events that looked
greater in the long term have not quite panned out, but the
accompanying air mass for this event is likely to be warmer
and more humid and therefor more unstable.

The sfc front could linger nearby into Fri morning per GFS as it
aligns with the flow aloft. With only slight chance pop this far
out in time. Otherwise weak high pressure should build in to
end the work week and start next weekend, before the next in the
train of disturbances follows possibly for next Sunday.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
A warm front gradually approaches tonight and moves across
the terminals early Sunday. A cold front follows Sunday
evening.

Vfr forecast through around 05z with lowering conditions early
Sunday morning. Scattered showers are possible overnight, but
overall coverage looks limited. An isolated thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out. MVFR and possibly ifr develops early Sunday
morning and then improve toVFR after 12z.

Se-s winds 10-15 kt continue early this evening. Wind speeds
should then settle to 10 kt or less overnight out of the sw-s.

Winds shift to the W early Sunday morning with the warm front
passage and should remain sw-w through the day 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt. The chance for a S sea breeze at coastal
terminals is low Sunday afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday night MainlyVFR. Slight chance of a shower storm near
the coast early.

Monday Vfr.

Tuesday MVFR or lower in likely showers. SE gusts to 20 kt
possible near the coast.

Wednesday Chance of MVFR or lower in showers thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday Chance of MVFR or lower in showers thunderstorms.

Sw wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions expected through Sunday night. S winds expected
to increase to 15 kt on the ocean tonight, building seas to 3 to
4 ft by Sunday morning, higher out east, ahead of a warm frontal
passage. Winds then weaken from the W SW by Sunday morning
with a strong inversion, although late afternoon southerly
coastal jet of 15-20 kt possible for the ny bight.

Expecting quiet conds with respect to prevailing winds seas through
the longer term. Can't totally rule out onshore flow pushing seas
close to 5 ft on the outer ocean waters late day Tue into tue
evening and again Thu night, or sea breezes gusting to 25 kt thu
afternoon on the near shore ocean waters and the south shore bays of
long island. Tstms may also pose a hazard each late day and
evening during mid week, especially on thu.

Hydrology
Basin avg QPF will be less than 1 10 inch tonight, but
individual showers could produce up to 1 4 inch. No hydrologic
impacts are anticipated with this, and none are anticipated attm
into the new week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Goodman nv
near term... Goodman nv
short term... Nv
long term... Goodman
aviation... Ds
marine... Goodman nv
hydrology... Goodman nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 8 mi46 min S 12 G 14 56°F 54°F1019.9 hPa52°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 30 mi44 min 56°F 59°F1019.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 49 mi181 min SW 11 G 12 58°F 1020.3 hPa47°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
East Hampton, East Hampton Airport, NY0 mi61 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast55°F50°F84%1019.6 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Promised Land, Napeague Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Promised Land
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Sat -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:37 AM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:29 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.12.32.32.11.81.51.20.80.50.50.81.21.61.92.12.11.91.71.51.20.90.81

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:31 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:23 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:08 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:40 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.92.12.11.91.51.310.60.40.40.711.41.71.91.81.61.41.31.10.80.81

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.