Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fire Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:48PM Saturday September 23, 2017 8:40 AM EDT (12:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 9:00PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 622 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, subsiding to 1 ft or less late.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 622 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Remnants of jose will meander and weaken to the southeast of long island into early next week, as high pressure slowly builds into the region from the west. This high slowly slides offshore towards the middle of next week as hurricane maria tracks north off of the southeastern coast of the united states. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on maria. A cold front approaches from the west late on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fire Island, NY
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location: 40.61, -73.23     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231123
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
723 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
The remnant low of jose dissipates well to the southeast of the
area over the next couple of days, while high pressure centered
to the northwest will be in control through the first half of
next week. Meanwhile, hurricane maria is forecast to remain
offshore of the east coast. A cold front passes through the
region Thursday, followed by high pressure building in Friday.

Please refer to the latest advisories from the national
hurricane center for the official forecast on maria.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Minor adjustments made to forecast based on latest observations.

Clouds mainly east of the hudson river will gradually work east
this morning in tandem with the remnants of jose. An anomalous
upper air pattern, will feature a high amplitude ridge across
the eastern united states. This will keep the area dry and
unseasonably warm through the course of the weekend. North
winds will continue today, but gusts will be weaker than on
Friday, perhaps up to 20 mph near the coast.

Highs will range from the lower 80s at the coast, to the mid and
upper 80s from nyc and points north and west.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the atlantic ocean
beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions
as heights continue to build across the area. 85h temps will
approach 18c with highs 85 to 90 across much of the area on
Sunday, with the exception of the immediate coast where it will
be in the lower 80s. Readings will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with few if any clouds. See climate section below for
potential records.

Gradually building swells from distant hurricane maria will
produce a moderate to high risk of rip currents on Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
A anomalous upper air pattern will feature a longwave trough over
the western states, and a highly amplified ridge across the east.

Hurricane maria will track slowly north through the week. The
global models are now all pointing toward a more westward
solution for maria as the weakness provided by the remnants of
jose appears to be less of a factor than it was 24 hours ago,
with the upper ridge expanding eastward across the western
atlantic. This in turn could cause a more westward track for
maria. Eventually though, a strong upper trough approaches from
the upper midwest and great lakes to deflect the system to the
south and east of the area. There is still some uncertainty and
timing issues at this juncture in the forecast. Please refer to
the latest advisories from the national hurricane center for
the official forecast on maria.

Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably
warm week and a dry start. At the moment, there continues to be
a low chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday as moisture
works in ahead of maria and the upper ridge begins to break down
with the approach of an upper trough. Depending on the future
track of maria, some of this moisture could interact with a cold
frontal boundary late Wednesday into Thursday. A return to more
seasonable weather is forecast on Friday behind the cold front.

Due to long period swells from maria, there will be a prolonged
period of rough surf at the ocean beaches.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure builds in from the west into Sunday morning, as
post tropical cyclone jose continues to slowly weaken as it
drifts southeast well off of CAPE cod.

Vfr through the TAF period.

Winds become n-nnw by mid morning at around 10kt, then should
see gusts of 15-20kt early through mid afternoon. Exception is
at kgon where should remain around 15g25kt well into the
afternoon. Gusts should abate late afternoon towards sunset as
the winds veer to the N throughout. Winds become light and
variable throughout this evening.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday-Monday Vfr.

Monday night-Wednesday MVFR or lower possible and scattered
showers are possible. E-se winds g15-20kt possible Wednesday.

Marine
The pressure gradient continues to weaken over the waters around
long island as post tropical cyclone jose continues to weaken as it
tracks farther away from the region and high pressure builds in from
the west. The gradient becomes light throughout by late this
afternoon, enabling winds to decrease to around 10 kt or less on all
waters. Winds should then remain around 10 kt or less over all the
waters around long island through at least Wednesday night.

On the coastal ocean waters, swells from a combination of jose and
maria will keep seas, over at least the southern portion of each
zone at or above 5 ft through Wednesday night. The seas should
diminish to around 5 ft tonight and Sunday then build back to 6-11 ft
(highest east of fire island inlet) Tuesday night.

As a result, have extended the SCA through Sunday. Once gusts to
around 25 kt abate during the afternoon, it should be converted over
to a SCA for hazardous seas.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next week.

However, the interaction of a cold front late Wednesday into
Thursday with tropical moisture will need to be watched.

Climate
The following are record high temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature.

Record high temperature forecast high temperature
----------------------------- -------------------------
central park... ... ..89 (1959) 89
laguardia... ... ... ..89 (1959) 88
kennedy... ... ... ... .88 (1970) 87
islip... ... ... ... ... 83 (2009) 86
newark... ... ... ... ..92 (1959) 90
bridgeport... ... ... .87 (1959) 84
the following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature.

Record MAX minimum temperature forecast minimum temperature
------------------------------ ----------------------------
central park... ... ..74 (1970) 70
laguardia... ... ... ..73 (1970) 71
kennedy... ... ... ... .71 (1970) 69
islip... ... ... ... ... 69 (1970) 65
newark... ... ... ... ..74 (1970) 68
bridgeport... ... ... .71 (2011) 66

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Sunday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Dw
near term... Dw
short term... Dw
long term... Dw
aviation... Maloit
marine... Maloit
hydrology... Dw
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 10 mi56 min N 9.7 G 12 70°F 69°F59°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 25 mi51 min N 16 G 18 69°F 66°F5 ft1014.5 hPa (+0.9)61°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi51 min NNW 12 G 14 71°F 70°F4 ft1014.6 hPa (+0.8)60°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi41 min NE 12 G 14 70°F 70°F1016.8 hPa (+0.9)
44022 - Execution Rocks 32 mi26 min N 9.7 G 14 70°F 57°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi41 min N 5.1 G 9.9 70°F 71°F1015.3 hPa (+1.2)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi41 min NNW 7 G 9.9 71°F 71°F1017.1 hPa (+1.0)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi41 min 70°F 71°F1016.8 hPa (+1.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi41 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 1017 hPa (+1.2)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 48 mi116 min N 18 G 19 69°F 2 ft69°F
MHRN6 49 mi41 min N 7 G 8
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 49 mi41 min 73°F 71°F1016.3 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE16
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NE16
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NE14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi48 minN 610.00 miFair70°F57°F64%1015.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY15 mi45 minNNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F57°F61%1015.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY24 mi45 minN 710.00 miFair72°F59°F64%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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G25
N11N8NE9N11N14N11N14
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N11N10N12N9N7N8N6
1 day agoN8N12
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N12N12
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N13N9N7NE5N9N9N11NE8N11
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2 days agoN18
G26
N16
G25
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N10N9N10N9N7NW5N6N9N7N8N8N12
G18
N9
G18
N10

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:20 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:25 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:41 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.10.60.300.10.511.622.22.21.91.40.90.50.20.10.30.81.31.71.92

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.70.60.40.20.1000.20.40.60.70.80.80.70.50.30.2000.20.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.