Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fire Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:02PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:22 AM EST (06:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 10:39AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 949 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Thursday...
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds around 10 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain late this evening and early morning. Rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 949 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches from the west tonight, with a wave of low pressure riding along it. The front and low cross the area on Thursday, followed by high pressure building in from Thursday night. Into Saturday. A cold front will then approach from the great lakes on Sunday, and pass through Sunday night. Low pressure moving out of the plains states on Monday will approach Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fire Island, NY
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location: 40.61, -73.23     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240557
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1257 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west tonight, with a wave of
low pressure riding along it. The front and low cross the area
on Thursday, followed by high pressure building in from Thursday
night into Saturday. A cold front will then approach from the
great lakes on Sunday, and pass through Sunday night. Low pressure
moving out of the plains states on Monday will approach Monday
night into Tuesday, then pass through along with a cold front
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Steadier rain has been delayed some, with earlier adjusted rain
chances adjusted down per trend. Additionally, latest hires
guidance also supports dry conditions the next few hours before
additional light rain works into the NW suburbs overnight.

Temperatures also continue to steadily warm with much of the
coast into the lower and mid 40s. However, low-level cold air
is holding over interior portions of the lower hudson valley,
where winds are light and variable. Gradient winds will increase
overnight and temperatures will steadily rise. By daybreak,
temperatures will be around 50 for most locations.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
A northern stream 700-500 hpa shortwave trough crosses the area
on Thursday. Associated forcing, coupled with the region being
in the right rear quadrant of a 160+ kt 300 hpa jet and a
80-105kt 950-850 hpa jet passing near over southern portions of
the area, and increasing isentropic lift, will have ample
forcing to produce moderate to locally heavy rainfall into
Thursday afternoon. In addition showalter indices are progged
down to around 2 to -2 ahead of the surface cold front mid
Thursday morning-mid Thursday afternoon, so have a slight chance
of thunder with locally heavy rainfall as well. As a result
have continued the flash flood watch for the entire cwa. Refer
to the hydrology section of the afd for details on impacts and
amounts.

In addition to the locally heavy rainfall, with that strong of a
low level jet in the vicinity of the region, even with a strong
low level inversion there is the potential for sustained winds
and possibly isolated gusts to wind advisory criteria for
coastal areas. As a result have issued a wind advisory for long
island nyc coastal S ct hudson and S westchester counties from
14-23z (so could see sustained winds of 30-35mph and or gusts
up around 50 mph). Outside the advisory area isolated gusts of
30-45mph are possible on Thursday.

Furthermore, with low level instability progged over the area
(aforementioned showalter indices around 2 to -2), there is the
potential for isolated strong convection, which could organize
itself as a fine line ahead of the cold front. If this occurs,
there is the potential for gusts to severe limits (at least 58
mph). If this occurs, this will be addressed by a severe
thunderstorm warning. This could occur anywhere in the CWA (from
w to e) from mid morning-mid afternoon on Thursday.

Highs on Thursday should be around 15-20 degrees above normal
and lows Thursday night around a few degrees above normal. With
decreasing winds through the night, wind chills will only run
around 10 degrees below the air temperature Thursday night,
and should bottom out from the mid teens-around 20 across most
of the area late Thursday night.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Medium range guidance in general agreement on the big picture, with
a broad upper trough dominating through the weekend, then as this
trough lifts out into eastern canada, transition to eastern ridging
early mid next week as the polar vortex drops S into central canada
and the northern plains. This will lead to a gradual trend to below
normal temps into the weekend, with low temps in the teens 20s fri
night Sat night, and highs on Sat from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Temps warm up briefly on Sunday ahead of a weak northern stream
frontal system, with the cold air returning Mon into Mon night.

Low pressure moving out of the plains states will bring another
frontal system toward the area late Mon night into tue. Partial
thicknesses and sfc temps dewpoints support idea of precip beginning
as snow, then transitioning to mixed wintry precip throughout on
tue, then to rain along the coast and possibly inland Tue afternoon
and night. A cold front passing through Tue night should bring a
lasting trend toward colder wx to end the month and going into
february as longer range guidance shows the polar vortex dropping
into the plains and eastern north america. However, if recent trends
with other weather systems hold for mid next week, would expect a
warmer scenario for Tue into Tue night, and perhaps a slower
progression of the cold front Tue night into wed.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
A frontal system will slowly approach the area overnight, then
move through later this afternoon evening.

MVFR to ifr CIGS have been developing across the area past few
hours with areas of very light rainfall blossoming as well. All
terminals drop to ifr or lower overnight with light rain
becoming steadier towards the morning push.

S SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to near 20 kt possible for coastal
terminals, increasing to 15 to 25 kt towards the Thursday
morning push, slightly less inland. More significantly, llws of
55-65kt @ 2 kft, strengthens to near 65-75kt, especially from
kjfk eastward, by the morning push. Llws may approach 80 kt for
kisp and kgon Thursday morning.

Winds then shift to wnw and remain strong following the frontal
passage Thursday aftn, which is expected to occur between
18-23z W to e. Gusty winds near 45-55kt may be possible with
the frontal passage, along with heavy rain and low visibilities.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible with the frontal passage
as well. Conditions will gradually improve back toVFR
following the passage along with gusty winds.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Thursday night Vfr. Ocnl w-nw g20-25kt.

Friday-Friday night Vfr. W wind gusts near 20 kt Friday.

Saturday MainlyVFR.

Sunday Chance of snow showers. MVFR or lower possible.

Monday Vfr.

Marine
Small craft conditions tonight, give way to gales on all waters
on Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions return again by
Thursday night.It should be noted, that there is the low end
chance for a convective line to produce gusts to around above 50
kt on Thursday out ahead of the cold front. Special marine
warnings will be issued for any gusts expected above gale force
due to convection.

Sca conds should already be ongoing Fri morning, then
spread to the remaining waters Fri afternoon eve as high pressure
begins to build in. Lingering 5+ ft seas expected on the ocean late
fri night into Sat morning.

Sca conds also expected late Sunday night into Mon on at least the
eastern ocean sound bays after a cold frontal passage. Some 5-ft
seas may persist into Mon night as low level flow veers clockwise to
onshore as high pressure passe to the north.

Hydrology
1.25 to 2.25 inches of rain is forecast through Thursday,
with locally higher amounts possible. Most of this will fall
during Thursday morning into early afternoon. Urban and poor
drainage flooding is therefore possible for Thursday, as well as
small stream and flashy river flooding. Larger streams and main
stem rivers should remain below flood stage.

Qpf up to 1 2 inch liquid equivalent possible late
mon night into early wed.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong southerly winds ahead of an approaching strong cold front, as
well as southerly swells building to 15 ft, will present a threat
for minor coastal flooding during the times of high tide Thursday
morning into afternoon.

With the recent full moon, tidal departures of only 1 to 1 1 2,
locally 2- 2 1 2 ft, are needed for minor coastal flooding.

Have leaned towards high end of stevens guidance based on
current water levels currently running on the high end of the
surge guidance, and past performance this season. Etss is
showing a negative surge for Thu high tides, which seems
unlikely.

Based on above surge and incoming swells, widespread minor coastal
impacts are likely for coastal locales along jamaica bay, western
great south bay, and southern ct and westchester shorelines.

Elsewhere, localized minor impacts are expected.

Otherwise, high surf of 10 to 15 ft is expected on Thu along the
atlantic oceanfront, with 2 to 4 ft along the ct shoreline and out
by the the points of the twin forks. This will likely result in
beach flooding and erosion, with minor damage possible to base of
dune structures. Splashover onto shoreline roads and properties
likely along the ct shoreline.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch from 6 am est this morning through this
afternoon for ctz005>012.

Wind advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for ctz009>012.

Coastal flood advisory from noon today to 3 pm est this
afternoon for ctz009>012.

Ny... Flash flood watch from 6 am est this morning through this
afternoon for nyz067>075-078>081-176>179.

Wind advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for nyz071>075-078>081-176>179.

Coastal flood advisory from noon today to 3 pm est this
afternoon for nyz071.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 am this morning to 2 pm est this
afternoon for nyz178-179.

Nj... Flash flood watch from 6 am est this morning through this
afternoon for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Wind advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for njz006.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Gale warning from 6 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... Goodman maloit
near term... Maloit dw
short term... Maloit
long term... Goodman
aviation... 24
marine... Goodman maloit
hydrology... Goodman maloit
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 25 mi33 min SSW 23 G 27 49°F 41°F7 ft1013.9 hPa (-2.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi33 min S 16 G 19 45°F 42°F5 ft1014.3 hPa43°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi53 min S 4.1 G 6 45°F 36°F1013.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi53 min 53°F 37°F1012.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi53 min SSW 21 G 30 54°F 32°F1013.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi53 min S 12 G 13 53°F 1013.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 48 mi38 min SSW 14 G 18 45°F 38°F2 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 49 mi53 min 53°F 37°F1012.5 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi53 min S 9.9 G 12

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi30 minS 15 G 249.00 miOvercast46°F45°F96%1014 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY15 mi87 minSSW 115.00 miFog/Mist47°F46°F97%1014.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY24 mi87 minSSW 75.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F44°F93%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S10SW7S12S13
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NW5NW666NW9NW7N766W55----SE3--E3CalmS6
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Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:48 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:32 PM EST     2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.70.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.51.21.82.22.32.11.610.4-0.1-0.4-0.400.61.31.722.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:23 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:38 PM EST     0.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:16 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.60.40.20-0.1-0.100.20.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.100.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.