Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bellmore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:18PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:15 PM EDT (17:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:32AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1240 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely early...then chance of showers with patchy drizzle late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers at night.
ANZ300 1240 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A low pressure system passes to the southeast through tonight. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the west Tuesday then crosses the area Tuesday night. A weak cold front then moves over the tri- state from Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure builds across the mid-atlantic coast Thursday and Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the west Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellmore, NY
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location: 40.62, -73.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 291646
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1246 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure passes southeast of the waters through tonight. A
weak cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, then crosses
the area Tuesday night... Followed by another on Wednesday. High
pressure then builds to the south through Thursday night.

Another cold front approaches on Friday then slowly crosses the
area Friday night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The second of two vorticity maximums that led to the development
of rainfall across the area is moving through quicker than
previously forecast, so have adjusted precipitation chances
downward from west to east for this afternoon and evening
accordingly. Rain is currently tapering off across nj and
southeastern ny. Current timing ends the steadier rain across
eastern ct and long island by this evening by around 4-6 pm.

Water vapor imagery reflects subsidence aloft which will act to
strengthen the low level inversion, keeping moisture trapped
beneath the inversion amidst onshore flow. Expect a continuation
of cloud cover along with patchy drizzle and fog.

Unseasonably cool temperatures today as clouds and rain keep
temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 for highs, some 10 to
15 degrees below normal.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Frontal system pushes east of the area tonight, along with the
coastal storm. After some lingering showers early this evening,
conditions should remain dry. However, drizzle and fog may
persist overnight, with low level moisture trapped under an
inversion.

Another front approaches slowly from the west. Chances for rain
increase from west to east during the day Tuesday. Enough
instability for some thunder, but nothing severe expected.

Temperatures continue to be below normal.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
The models continue to have differences in how they handle the very
broad closed low that will be over SE canada Tuesday night through
Thursday night. As a result they also differ in the strength and
timing of shortwaves rotating around the base of the low, and hence
on the precise timing of precipitation during this time frame.

However, do have likely pops in for Tuesday night, as the models do
agree there should be some measurable rainfall across the region
then, but do have differences in timing during the night. Lows
Tuesday night should be a few degrees above normal.

For Wednesday and Wednesday night have mainly chance pops across
northern zones and slight chance pops across southern zones. With
showalter indices progged to 0 to -2, also have a slight chance of
thunder in for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Highs Wednesday and
lows Wednesday night should be a few degrees above normal as well.

Zonal flow sets up Thursday and Thursday night, and it appears the
region and with significant shortwaves progged to the NE and NW during
this time frame, have gone with a dry forecast then.

The model differences become even more noticeable Friday-Saturday.

For Friday, do have chance pops throughout by afternoon and continue
through Friday evening (along with a slight chance of thunder). Then
limit pops to slight chance from late Friday night-Saturday morning.

Then go with a dry forecast late Saturday Saturday night as both the
gfs and ECMWF show the core of the closed low to the NE then.

The new ECMWF has joined the 00z GFS in keeping Sunday dry, but
noting it previously had a coastal low approaching (now just
suppressed farther s), do have slight chance pops for Sunday.

Temperatures Thursday through Saturday night will feature near
normal highs and lows a few degrees above normal. Highs Sunday are
currently forecast to be a few degrees below normal.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
A weakening frontal system will approach from the west, while
low pressure passes off to the southeast today. The area will
be between the two systems, under an area of weak high
pressure. This will result in widespread clouds and periods of
light rain and or drizzle.

Expect widespread MVFR CIGS through this evening, with local
ifr at khpn. Showers moving in from the west could bring tempo
ifr vsby to the nyc metros toward midday, with thunder chances
nil as instability off to the west weakens. Thereafter could see
tempo ifr CIGS at any time from mid afternoon into the evening,
but the main push for ifr CIGS looks to be after midnight
tonight.

High confidence in E to ene winds 8-15 kt this morning,
diminishing to 10 kt or less this afternoon. Confidence still
only medium at best on wind direction this evening, which could
range anywhere from NW to se, but speeds should be light.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 19 mi46 min ENE 5.1 G 7 56°F 59°F1014.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi86 min ENE 14 G 18 56°F 57°F6 ft1013.4 hPa (+1.4)54°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi46 min ENE 14 G 19 56°F 53°F
44069 23 mi46 min ENE 18 G 21 56°F 64°F56°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi61 min ENE 18 G 23 55°F 4 ft53°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 27 mi46 min 58°F 60°F1014.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi46 min E 11 G 17 56°F 60°F1014 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi46 min ENE 7 G 8.9 58°F 1015.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi86 min ENE 18 G 19 55°F 56°F7 ft1012 hPa (+1.6)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi46 min 59°F 61°F1014.7 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi46 min ENE 7 G 8.9
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi46 min E 12 G 17 55°F 1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi23 minESE 410.00 miOvercast58°F52°F81%1015.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi25 minNE 410.00 miLight Rain59°F55°F87%1015.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi25 minNE 139.00 miLight Rain57°F53°F87%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11SE10SE12SE10SE9SE11SE9SE9SE9SE9E8E7E9E8E6
G16
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1 day agoSW9S7S6S9SE6SE8SE7SE8SE7SE5SE5SE6S4SE3SE4CalmE3S6S6S8S8S8S13S8
2 days agoW16
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NW6NW8NW8NW7NW6W4N3CalmCalmCalmNW3N3N6N3NW5N6N9S10

Tide / Current Tables for Green Island, Long Island, New York
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Green Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.52.11.610.4-0-0.2-0.10.30.91.51.92.121.61.10.60.200.10.51.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:16 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:29 AM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.4-00.20.5110.50.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.20.10.30.81.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.