Wednesday, August16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bellmore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 11:24 AM EDT (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:47AMMoonset 3:24PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 926 Am Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late tonight...
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W this afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft in long period se swell.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft in long period se swell. Rough conditions at inlets.
Thu night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 926 Am Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Large long period swells from distant hurricane gert will continue on the ocean waters through tonight and possibly into Thursday. Please refer to nhc advisories for further details on gert. Meanwhile, high pressure will build over the waters through tonight, then drift offshore on Thursday. A warm front will then approach Thursday night, and move through on Friday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west on Friday, and move across on Saturday. High pressure will then build in on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellmore, NY
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location: 40.62, -73.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 161341
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
941 am edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds in today and moves offshore on Thursday. A
warm front, associated with low pressure over the great lakes,
will then approach Thursday night, and move through on Friday. A
slow moving cold front will approach from the west on Friday,
and move across on Saturday. High pressure will then build in
the region for the start of the new work week, and pass off the
coast on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Fog has burned off across the area. Expect quiet conditions
across the area. Minor update to temperatures and dewpoints to
reflect current conditions otherwise, no significant changes to
the forecast.

Looking at a mostly sunny day with a drying downslope NW flow,
though immediate south facing coastal areas may still see a late
day sea breeze. GFS nam differ on depth of mixing for today,
but taking a compromise and adding 2-3 degrees this afternoon
for downslope flow, expect high temps around 90 just west of
nyc, upper 80s in the rest of the city and immediate suburbs,
and mid 80s elsewhere. Afternoon dewpoints falling off to 60-65
should keep MAX heat index values just below 90.

A high rip current risk will continue today for the ocean
beaches as the largest swells from distant hurricane gert
arrive. For details on gert, please refer to national hurricane
center products.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
A dry and tranquil night is in store for tonight with high
pressure remaining in control. Lows will be in the 60s in most
coastal locations, and mid upper 50s inland and in the long
island pine barrens region.

Have sided with a slower model trend with an approaching frontal
system, with upper ridging still to the west even by late day
thu. Have therefore kept daytime Thu mostly sunny and dry, with
highs 80-85.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
With upper ridging remaining to the west of the region early
Thursday night, an upper shortwave and surface warm front will
be slower to affect the area, and as a result have delayed the
onset of precipitation until after 00z Friday, and then with
only slight chance probabilities coming into the far western
zones. Also, with the surface low remaining well to the west,
then warm front will remains well to the southwest with little
forcing across the region through 06z Friday. And with little
cape will have mention of showers but not thunder.

Portions of the area become warm sectored Saturday, mainly inland,
as the warm front moves through the region during the day. A
supporting shortwave rotates through a longwave trough to the west
and north during Friday into Friday night, and the surface low
tracks north of the great lakes. Probabilities for precip
increase as the cold front moves into the warm and unstable
air mass later Friday and Friday, with likely probabilities. At
this time CAPE is several hundred j kg and will mention a chance
of thunder.

The surface cold front moves east 09z to 15z Saturday. However,
there will be another shortwave rotating into the longwave
trough, and the probability of precipitation remains until
toward 12z Sunday.

On Sunday the upper flow becomes more zonal as weak ridging
builds. The northern stream remains progressive and the next
shortwave approaches for late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure builds in today withVFR.

Nw winds increasing to around 10 kt. Winds should prevail north
of 310 magnetic most of the day. Occasional gusts to mid teens
possible this afternoon. Afternoon sea breezes expected for
kjfk kisp kbdr kgon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 19 mi54 min N 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 73°F1014.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi94 min NW 9.7 G 12 73°F 75°F5 ft1014 hPa (+0.7)69°F
44069 23 mi69 min NNW 9.7 G 12 76°F 77°F67°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 27 mi54 min 77°F 74°F1014.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 7 76°F 75°F1014.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi54 min N 5.1 G 6 1015.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi94 min NNW 12 G 14 73°F 74°F6 ft1014.3 hPa (+0.7)70°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi54 min 79°F 75°F1014.9 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi54 min NNW 7 G 9.9
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi54 min N 6 G 9.9 78°F 75°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi31 minN 510.00 miFair79°F64°F62%1014.4 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi33 minNNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds82°F66°F60%1014.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi33 minNNW 710.00 miA Few Clouds80°F64°F58%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S8SE5S7S6S6S4S4S6SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W3W5NW3NW5N5N8N6N5
1 day agoS5S8S6SW6S8S7S5S6SW5S6S5S4S4SW4S4SW5CalmNW3NE4NE3CalmCalmSE6SE7
2 days agoN10
G14
NW9N9NW7NW9N7N5N7NW5N3N4N4N3CalmN4CalmN3NE4N3N4NE3E44S7

Tide / Current Tables for Green Island, Long Island, New York
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Green Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:25 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:56 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:54 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.81.31.71.91.81.61.20.70.40.20.10.30.71.31.82.12.22.11.71.30.90.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:22 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:49 PM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.90.90.3-0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-00.10.30.80.90.60.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.