Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bellmore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:28PM Monday December 11, 2017 5:39 PM EST (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 2:06PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 330 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance of rain late.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue night..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of snow and rain in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 330 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches tonight and passes to the north Tuesday. This intensifying low pressure system will move into the canadian maritimes Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A weak alberta clipper passes to the south on Thursday, followed by a low pressure system passing off the coast Friday night into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellmore, NY
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location: 40.62, -73.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 112015 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
315 pm est Mon dec 11 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches tonight and passes to the north Tuesday.

This intensifying low pressure system will move into the canadian
maritimes Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A weak alberta
clipper passes to the south on Thursday, followed by a low
pressure system passing off the coast Friday night into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Shortwave tracks across il and oh toward the region just ahead
of vigorous shortwave diving out of canada toward the western
great lakes region. At the sfc, two low pressure centers
approach, passing across the great lakes region toward western
ny state by Tuesday morning. A warm front WAA out ahead of the
lows upper shortwaves will result in an increase in clouds, and
precipitation chances increase after midnight.

Cold air initially across the northeast will warm as the night
progresses. Sfc temperatures may initially fall this evening,
then hold steady before rising overnight as south flow begins to
pick up.

At this time, precip looks to hold off until late at night per
most operational models solutions, and many GEFS members. Across
the interior, a few hours of snow is possible, with very low
chances toward the coast for either a wintry mix or plain rain.

Timing and placement will be the key as low levels warm ahead of
the lows.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Upper trough closes off, as sfc low deepens across ny state and
into new england during this time frame.

Qpf looks light, with lower amounts or even trace amounts near
the coast, and higher totals as you head north across the
interior. Would expect interior portions of southern ct, and the
lower hudson valley of southeast ny to observe higher QPF up to
a 1 4 of an inch liquid equivalent.

Early in the morning, a snow or rain snow mix will quickly give
way to plain rain as WAA continues, and the lower levels of the
atmosphere warm. With increasing southerly flow, temperatures
warm through the 40s, and coastal locations should warm to
around 50. Will lean toward the warmer guidance, and would not
be surprised to see some temps slightly higher than guidance.

Any precip tapers off as the day progresses, and drier air moves
in behind the low front by evening thanks to NW flow. With the
upper low in the vicinity, a few snow showers are possible
overnight, but this should be isolated. Gusty NW flow and caa
will commence.

Temps fall to the upper teens 20s across the region. Quite cold.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Wednesday begins with an upper low over the northeast and a
deepening surface low entering SE canada. There could be some snow
showers over eastern LI and SE ct in the morning before the upper
low shifts east and overall lift diminishes. Dry, cold and windy
otherwise. 850mb temperatures will fall to around 15c, but partial
sunshine and a strong downsloping wind should somewhat temper the
cold air mixing down from aloft. Highs expected to range from the
upper 20s well inland to mid 30s for coastal sections. Wind chills
start in the single digits in the morning and average around 20 in
the afternoon. For now it appears that wind gusts should fall short
of advisory levels, but probably not by much, so it's possible that
an advisory would be needed as the event draws closer. Some coastal
spots might even meet criteria based on sustained winds.

Winds subside Wednesday night and low temperatures will average 5-10
degrees below normal. A clipper low is progged to pass south of us
on Thursday. Models show some track and timing differences as well
as available moisture. Snow from this system may however stretch
north into our region, so will introduce low chances for this into
the forecast for southern sections. Like most clippers, this has the
potential for only light accumulations.

The active weather pattern continues on Friday with an upper trough
axis digging into the ohio valley and models showing low pressure
strengthening off the mid-atlantic coast. The trough becomes
negatively tilted Friday night, but not before the low is pushed se
of the 40n 70w benchmark. Upper jet winds streaks are not currently
progged in a position to help expand the pcpn shield NW towards us
as they did with the storm this past weekend. Shortwaves embedded
within the longwave upper trough however may help spread pcpn closer
to us. Looks like this would be an all-snow event with best chances
of snow Friday afternoon and night. Too early to go with anything
higher than chance pops for this potential event.

A high pressure ridge follows for Saturday with dry weather, then
another low moves through the vicinity of the southern great
lakes ohio valley regions on Sunday. Global models disagree on its
evolution and track, but will go with a dry forecast through Sunday.

A better chance of pcpn across the entire region appears to be
Sunday night or Monday as the low shifts east.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Vfr tonight. A complex area of low pressure passes to the northwest
of the terminals Tuesday.

Cigs fall to MVFR late tonight, mainly after 09z Tuesday in
response to a warm front which pushes north of the area.

With models trending slightly warmer and drier, little if any
snow is expected. However, if precipitation starts a bit
earlier, some wet snow is certainly possible. By 12z any
precipitation should be mainly in the form rain for most
terminals, except kswf, where precipitation could still be snow
or a mix of rain and snow.

Generally westerly winds today becoming light and southerly this
evening. Wind increases Tuesday morning and gusts become more
frequent with speeds around 20 kt.

A cold frontal passage is expected around 16-19z Tuesday and
winds increase dramatically during the afternoon. Potential
gusts of 25-30 kt+ by evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 19 mi51 min NNW 7 G 8.9 40°F 46°F1016.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi49 min WNW 9.7 G 12 42°F 52°F2 ft1015.8 hPa (+0.4)24°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi69 min NW 7.8 G 12 41°F 21°F
44069 23 mi69 min N 3.9 G 5.8 39°F 45°F25°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi54 min NW 7.8 G 12 40°F 22°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 27 mi51 min 40°F 48°F1016.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi51 min WNW 8.9 G 11 40°F 43°F1016.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi51 min W 8.9 G 9.9 40°F 1016.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi49 min WNW 9.7 G 14 41°F 53°F3 ft1016.3 hPa (+0.7)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi51 min 40°F 47°F1015.9 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi51 min W 8 G 8
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi57 min N 4.1 G 6 38°F 46°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi46 minNNW 310.00 miFair39°F21°F48%1016.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi48 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F23°F53%1016.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi48 minW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F19°F43%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW8W8W6W8W7W9W8W6W6W7W11SW9SW6SW6W8W12W10----NW8NW7NW5N3
1 day agoN9N9N8N6N7NW7N7NW4NW6W7NW4W7W8W9W8W6W8W7W9W12W8
G18
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2 days agoW6W7W6W5NW3NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmN4NE3N5N7NE7N9N9N9N7N8NE10N11N10

Tide / Current Tables for Green Island, Long Island, New York
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Green Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:31 AM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:01 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:44 PM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:34 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.11.61.91.91.61.30.90.60.30.20.30.71.11.51.81.81.71.310.60.300

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:57 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:58 AM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:02 PM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:43 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:29 PM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.50.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.710.70.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.2-00.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.