Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bellmore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:38PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:59 AM EST (08:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:27PMMoonset 11:38PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 340 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 12 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 340 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds into the area waters today, then moves to to the north on Thursday. Another storm system approaches from the south impacting the waters late Thursday night into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellmore, NY
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location: 40.62, -73.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 140526
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1226 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Strong high pressure will build in from the west through
Wednesday night. The high will then retreat northeast from new
england into the canadian maritimes Thursday into Thursday night
as intensifying low pressure moves up the coast. The low will
pass through on Friday, and then head northeast past the
canadian maritimes on Saturday as high pressure builds to the
south and west. A cold front will pass through on Sunday,
followed by another frontal system Sunday night into Monday
night.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Only minor changes with this update to capture the latest
observational trends. Plenty of clouds remain across the area,
although some breaks are starting to develop.

High pressure builds in from the west tonight with a fairly
tight pressure gradient in place over the region as low pressure
deepens over the canadian maritimes. Breezy conditions will
result, and with a strong jet streak not too far to our north,
plenty of cirrus should remain into the late night hours after
lower and mid clouds scour out in the evening. The combination
of clouds and winds will prevent frost formation, so no frost
advisories are planned at this time. Lows in the low to mid 30s
across coastal sections and 25-30 inland.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Deep-layered ridging occurs on Wednesday with high pressure building
in, then the high shifts towards new england Wednesday night with a
continuation of dry weather and primarily cirrus streaming through
from time to time. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably cold
with both high and low temperatures averaging 10-15 colder than
normal. Wind chills will still be as low as the upper 20s to lower
30s even during the warmest part of the day. Most guidance shows
lows in nyc in the upper 20s or around 30, so will issue a freeze
watch for the remaining boroughs where the growing season has not
yet ended. Lows otherwise range downward into the teens across the
northern suburbs and the pine barrens region.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Main focus remains with the retreating high and approaching
coastal storm Thursday into Friday. Big picture remains much the
same as with the previous forecast, as a mid 1030s high retreats
ne, and as an upper low moving across the oh tn valleys spins up
sfc low pressure along the SE coast, which then heads up the
coast to a position along the jersey shore by 12z fri. The front
end of the storm holds the greatest concern as far as wintry wx,
as cad via the retreating high continues to supply cold air,
with snow likely all the way down to the coast on thu, perhaps
an inch or two for western long island, nyc metro, and coastal
ct before precip changes to rain by Thu evening. A more complex
scenario likely farther inland, as sfc temp remain AOB freezing
while warmer air moves in aloft on SE h8 flow, with primarily
an advy level snowfall of 2-3 inches, changing to sleet and then
freezing rain of less than 1 10 inch accretion during thu
night. ATTM probabilistic guidance indicates only a 10-20
percent chance of higher snow ice amts than currently fcst,
with MAX potential for 5-7 inches of snow and 1-2 tenths of an
inch of ice across the i-84 corridor in the lower hudson valley
and ct, also extending down into W passaic, and northern
rockland westchester.

Temps should warm enough during Fri morning to change precip to
all rain except perhaps in the highest elevations north west
of nyc.

This storm is still a couple of days away, so track and timing
changes are possible and could result in further changes to the
fcst.

For the weekend, a cooling trend as another shot of cold air comes
in for sun. Another frontal system should pass through with chances
for rain snow showers from Sunday night into Mon night. &&

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Canadian high pressure builds over the region into tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period.

Nw winds through early evening, except wnw early this morning at
kbdr. Winds gusts should abate by around 8-10z with sustained winds
around 10-15kt. Gusts resume around 13z with gusts around 20-25kt.

Gusts should abate around 22z with speeds around 10kt. Winds veer to
the nnw-n around with speeds less than 10kt by mid evening, with
kswf and kteb becoming light and variable.

Outlook for 00z Thursday through Sunday
Late tonight-Thursday morning Vfr.

Thursday afternoon Ifr or lower conditions likely with a wintry
mix. Ese-ene winds g15-25kt likely.

Thursday night Ifr or lower conditions likely. Wintry mix quickly
to rain nyc long island terminals. Several hours of a wintry mix
probable lower hudson valley S ct terminals before change over to
rain (no change over kswf). Ene winds g25-35kt or llws possible
Thursday night, mainly nyc metro coastal terminals.

Friday MVFR or lower conditions probable with rain (freezing rain
to rain in the am kswf) in the morning, possibly becomingVFR in
western terminals in the afternoon. N-nw winds g25-35kt probable.

Friday night-Saturday Vfr. NW winds g15-25kt possible.

Saturday night-Sunday Vfr. SW winds g15-25kt possible Sunday
afternoon.

Marine
Sca remains on all waters tonight and Wednesday, although gusts on
the ocean east of moriches inlet could get close to gale force at
times tonight. The SCA might need to be extended by a few hours into
Wednesday evening mainly on the ocean.

Winds and seas should start to ramp up on Thu between departing
high pressure and approaching intensifying low pressure, with
sca conds initially on the ocean Thu afternoon, then easterly
gales on the ocean and the far eastern sound Thu night, and sca
conds elsewhere. Could also see NW gales on the ocean daytime
fri as the low departs. Lingering elevated ocean seas above 5 ft
likely to continue into Fri night and possibly Sat morning.

Hydrology
Liquid equivalent QPF of 1-1.5 inches expected mainly from
midday Thu til midday fri. A good deal of this should fall as
snow and then freezing rain across the interior. Nuisance
ponding urban flooding possible in the nyc metro area and across
long island and coastal ct.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures of 2 1 2 to 3 ft needed for minor coastal
flooding during the times of high tide late Thu night into fri
afternoon. There is potential for minor coastal impacts across
normally vulnerable western long island sound, ny harbor,
western great south bay, and peconic bay locales with the thu
night high tide, as easterly gales ramp up. Winds should shift
nw heading into the Fri afternoon high tide, which would likely
relegate potential minor impacts at that time to the long island
south shore bays.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Freeze watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
nyz072-073-075-176-178.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc goodman
near term... Feb jc
short term... Jc
long term... Goodman
aviation... Maloit
marine... Jc goodman
hydrology... Jc goodman
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 19 mi47 min N 15 G 22 40°F 53°F1024 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi39 min NW 25 G 33 42°F 55°F1022.9 hPa28°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi59 min WNW 14 G 19 53°F
44069 23 mi59 min NW 21 G 27 41°F 48°F23°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 27 mi41 min 39°F 52°F1023.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi41 min NW 18 G 23 40°F 50°F1024.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi41 min NW 14 G 21 39°F 1023.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi69 min NW 23 G 29 44°F 56°F6 ft1021.4 hPa (+2.2)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi47 min 39°F 51°F1023.4 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi41 min WNW 4.1 G 8
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi47 min NW 5.1 G 13 38°F 55°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi66 minNW 9 G 1810.00 miFair38°F19°F46%1022.4 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi68 minNW 1410.00 miOvercast39°F23°F53%1023.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi68 minWNW 18 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy40°F21°F47%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5E3SE8E12E104W8NW15
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1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW5SW4SW6S9S6S4CalmCalmE4E4NE3NE4NE5NE4N4NE4E4
2 days agoW5NW6W6NW7NW5NW8
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W9NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Green Island, Long Island, New York
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Green Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:39 AM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:51 PM EST     1.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.61.61.41.10.80.60.50.50.711.31.61.81.81.71.410.70.50.30.40.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:21 AM EST     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:34 AM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:38 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:00 PM EST     0.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.300.10.30.70.80.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.100.20.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.