Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baldwin Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:15PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:50 AM EDT (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:40AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1009 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Overnight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Areas of fog. Areas of drizzle late this evening. Chance of rain with patchy drizzle...then rain likely with areas of drizzle late. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Rain likely. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers in the evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely... Mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon...then becoming W in the evening...becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 4 to 7 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 1009 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will approach tonight and move north into the region Monday. Weak low pressure and a warm front affects the region Tuesday...followed by a cold front Tuesday night. High pressure builds in Wednesday and Thursday. Another low pressure system approaches Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baldwin Harbor, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.59     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 270225
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1025 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach overnight and then waver near the
tri-state region Monday into Monday night. Weak low pressure
passes through on Tuesday followed by a cold front moving
through during Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday and Thursday, and shifts offshore Thursday night. A
low pressure system then potentially impacts the region Friday
and Saturday.

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/
Widespread drizzle and fog has overspread the nyc metro, li,
and the souther portions of the lower hudson valley and will
continue work across the remainder of the area through the
overnight. Minor updates were made to account for latest
observations.

Isentropic lift is increasing from south to north over the area
ahead of an approaching warm front. More widespread rain
development expected across w/nw portions of the tri-state late
tonight into Mon morning with approach of the shortwave energy
aloft and 40-45kt LLJ overrunning a +2-3 stds pwat airmass over
an approaching warm front.

Additionally... Moistening easterly flow and a strengthening low-
level flow ahead of the approaching warm front point towards
an increasing probability for fog to become more widespread
during the late night hours.

Temps will run slightly above seasonable with cloud cover and
onshore flow.

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/
Shortwave energy pivots through northern ny into northern new
england on Monday... With surface warm front likely struggling to
lift north of the area as low pressure weakens over southern
ontario. With a weak wave development along the front... And a
45kt LLJ bringing in pwats 2-3 stds above normal ahead of
it... Would expect a band of overrunning rain to work W to e
across the area in the morning into early afternoon. The exact
location of the warm front/surface low will determine where the
heaviest overrunning rain axis will occur on Monday... With
highest probs across interior closer to shortwave forcing.

Stratus and fog are expected to hold tough to the north of the
warm front in the morning... And possibly into the afternoon for
parts of the area.

There are some hints of weak elevated instability across NW zones
Monday afternoon in the wake of the surface low as the shortwave
energy is coming through. This should support some residual shower
activity... And cant rule out an isolated TSTM across NE nj/lower
hudson river valley if warm front can work north.

Temps forecast is tricky on Monday... Conditional on warm frontal
progress. Potential for temps to get into the lower 60s across NE nj
and surrounding if warm front moves north... While temps across
interior ct could remain in the 40s if warm front hangs to the
south. Coastal areas will likely see temps rise to around 50 degrees
with onshore flow.

Any rain/shower activity should taper off from W to E late Monday
afternoon into early Monday evening as the shortwave moves off to
the east.

The weak stationary front will likely hang near the region Monday
night. With weak pressure gradient and abundant low-level
moisture... Stratus/fog are likely once again. Otherwise... Region
looks to be in between shortwaves... So not expecting much in the way
of any organized rain activity.

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/
Models are coming into better agreement regarding a weak area of low
pressure passing through or just south of the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night. An associated warm front might push north into the
southern zones, but with a lack of low level jet this time of the
year, thinking is that the warm front won't push through the entire
area. Associated lift and moisture will however bring increasing
chances of light rain as Tuesday progresses with best overall
chances occurring during the late-day/evening hours and focused over
the southern zones where best convergence and lift exist. A cold
front quickly follows during the late night hours with additional
chances of rain across the entire area. Temperatures through this
period are expected to be above normal.

High pressure builds in on Wednesday and shifts through the region
Thursday into Thursday night. This period will be dry with above
normal high temps on Wednesday as the strongest cold advection gets
delayed until late in the day or evening. Thursday's highs will be
closer to normal.

Models are also coming into better agreement regarding a late-week
storm. Right now it appears that low pressure moving in from the
west during Friday redevelops off the coast to our south on Saturday
and heads out to sea into Saturday night. Rain would become
increasingly possible as Friday progresses with a decent chance for
rain Friday night and Saturday. There would also be a chance of
mixed pcpn early Friday morning for some of the interior sections.

Have pops capped at 50% for now with this being primarily a day 6-7
event.

Weak high pressure returns for Sunday with dry weather and highs in
the 50s.

Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/
Low-level ridge will gradually weaken overnight and give way to
an approaching warm front to the south. This front will lift
slowly through during the late morning/early afternoon hours,
possibly washing out across or just north of the area.

Lower ceilings, drizzle, and fog continue to work in from the
sw tonight. Conditions will continue to lower through the overnight
with widespread lifr toward daybreak, if not sooner based on
current trends.

Ifr conditions could last through much of the period, especially
to the north and east of the nyc terminals due to the
uncertainty with the timing of the warm front.

Outlook for 03z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night-tue night Ifr likely, lifr possible with rain/low
clouds/fog.

Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g20kt.

Thursday Vfr.

Friday Chance of rain with MVFR or lower conditions,
especially at night. E winds g20kt along the coast.

Marine
Marginal SCA gusts are expected on the ocean waters through tonight.

The resultant easterly fetch should maintain ocean seas at 4 to 7
ft. Winds are expected to weaken and veer se/s on Monday as a warm
front works into the waters... But e/se swells will likely keep seas
at SCA levels into the evening. Ocean seas likely gradually
fall just below SCA late Monday night.

Weak low pressure shifts through the waters on Tuesday, then a cold
front moves through Tuesday night, followed by high pressure
building in on Wednesday. Although the pressure gradient tightens as
high pressure builds in, it appears that winds probably remain below
25 kt during this period. In spite of an offshore flow, a lingering
swell is expected to keep seas up to 4 ft on the ocean waters into
Thursday morning. A high pressure ridge then shifts through Thursday
into Thursday night with tranquil conditions. An onshore flow then
increases on Friday with the approach of low pressure. SCA conds
will be possible on the ocean by late in the day.

Hydrology
Generally one quarter to one half of an inch of rainfall is expected
through Monday... With locally higher amounts possible across the
interior.

No hydrologic concerns are anticipated with any periods of rain that
occur within the rest of the forecast period.

Tides/coastal flooding
Latest surge guidance indicating that water levels will stay
safely below minor flood thresholds for tonight and Monday
morning high tide.

As astronomical tides rise through the week... Water levels may
come close to minor levels during high tides in the most
vulnerable spots on tue/tue night ahead of approaching low
pressure.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc/nv
near term... Nv/dw
short term... Nv
long term... Jc
aviation... Dw
marine... Jc/nv
hydrology... Jc/nv
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi51 min 4.1 G 6 38°F 39°F1026.7 hPa (-1.8)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi61 min ENE 16 G 19 40°F 42°F6 ft1026 hPa (-1.4)40°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi66 min ENE 16 G 19 37°F 2 ft37°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi51 min 40°F 42°F1026.1 hPa (-1.7)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 25 mi51 min E 9.9 G 12 40°F 1026.5 hPa (-1.8)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi51 min E 9.9 G 15 40°F 42°F1025.4 hPa (-1.8)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi51 min 40°F 42°F1026.4 hPa (-1.5)
MHRN6 30 mi51 min ENE 8 G 13
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi61 min ENE 14 G 18 41°F 40°F7 ft1025.5 hPa (-0.8)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi51 min E 8.9 G 13 36°F 1027.1 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi60 minENE 94.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1027 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi58 minE 63.00 miFog/Mist39°F37°F96%1026.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi60 minNE 112.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist40°F37°F89%1026.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi60 minENE 42.50 miFog/Mist39°F37°F96%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE11NE7NE8NE10NE9NE10NE10NE10NE10E10E13E15E14E12E10E13E14E11E7NE9E10E12NE9
1 day agoS8S11S8S4W12W13W7W5N4SW3Calm5S5N8N8SE9E6NE14SE8E9NE8E7NE11NE10
2 days agoSW6SW8SW4S9SW9SW12SW13SW12S13S17S18S15S19S17S20
G26
S16S16S11S11S11S8SW8S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, Baldwin Bay, Long Island, New York
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Freeport
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:02 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.5-0-0.20.10.922.93.43.53.12.41.50.70-0.4-0.30.51.62.63.33.63.42.7

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.6-0.20.10.30.71.10.90.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.4-00.20.5110.50-0.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.