Thursday, April19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baldwin Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:39PM Thursday April 19, 2018 5:27 AM EDT (09:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:54AMMoonset 11:45PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 411 Am Edt Thu Apr 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Friday morning...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt early this afternoon, then becoming nw 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 411 Am Edt Thu Apr 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves to south of long island today and then southeast of cape cod this afternoon. The deepening low then quickly exits into the canadian maritimes tonight through Friday. High pressure slowly builds in from the great lakes Friday night through Sunday night, then gradually slides offshore from Monday through Tuesday night. A coastal low approaches from the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baldwin Harbor, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.59     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190859
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
459 am edt Thu apr 19 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks to south of long island this morning and
will then move to the southeast of CAPE cod this afternoon. The
deepening low then quickly exits into the canadian maritimes
tonight through Friday. High pressure slowly builds in from the
great lakes Friday night through Sunday night, then gradually
slides offshore from Monday through Tuesday night. A coastal low
approaches from the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The main upper level jet will be south of the region. A
persistent upper level low will remain in the northeast. The mid
levels convey a flattened mid level ridge moving east of the
region with an approaching shortwave trough. At the surface, a
low will be moving to south of long island this morning and then
this low will be tracking to southeast of CAPE cod.

Low level warm air advection has been occurring with some
isentropic lift as well. This will be a setup for overrunning
rain that will be main weather theme of the day. Going into this
morning, higher terrain across the interior could have the
precipitation as a rain snow mix or even some snow. Little to no
snow accumulation is expected, if anyplace gets any
accumulation, it would be the higher terrain where temperatures
will be slightly below freezing.

Expecting a damp cool day as temperatures will not rise much
from early morning values.

Continuous rain expected on a light northerly flow to start but that
flow will increase towards mid to late afternoon as pressure
gradient becomes tighter between the low and strong high pressure
still well out west into the central plains.

Expecting cooler than normal temperature with the northerly flow and
rain through the day. Used the cooler met guidance for highs.

Increased one degree along the coast for highs.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The main upper level jet will remain south of the region through
Friday.

For Thursday night:
two more shortwaves pivot across the region in the mid levels. So
despite the surface low moving farther away to the south of nova
scotia, the region will remain in cyclonic flow aloft. The chances
for precipitation while lower than earlier in the day, will be
still be present mainly during the evening. Cold air advection
on the backside could result in a light rain snow mix across
some parts of the interior, especially higher terrain. No
snow accumulation is expected. Otherwise, the precipitation
will end as rain.

For overnight, more drying takes over with the persistent nw
flow.

With the abundant clouds, used a blend of guidance in terms of
temperatures including the previous forecast. There will be
some cold air advection but without ideal radiational cooling.

Winds stay up so despite temperatures in the mid 30s for those
parts of the region in the growing season, not expecting frost
formation.

For Friday:
in the mid levels, the mid low will be moving east of the region,
allowing for heights to build as ridging commences from well to the
west.

The same pressure gradient remains for Friday so that will mean more
gusty NW flow. At the surface, the low will be moving near
newfoundland while the high will be moving into the great lakes and
into the west of the appalachians.

Nw flow continues so dry conditions will remain. Still expecting
abundant clouds though, so will side with a blend for high
temperatures including the previous forecast.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Nw flow aloft Friday night. With no shortwave embedded in the flow
progged to impact the region, have continued with the dry forecast.

Lows Friday night should be around 5-10 degrees below normal.

A couple of northern stream 700-500 hpa shortwaves push through the
area Saturday and Saturday night as the rotate around the base of a
closed low over the canadian maritimes. With relative dry low levels
and downsloping boundary layer flow, the shortwaves should pass
through dry. Highs on Saturday and low Saturday night should be
around 5-10 degrees below normal.

Deep layered ridging then begins to builds in Sunday and continues
to ridge over the area through Tuesday. Subsidence associated with
the ridge should keep things dry and relatively (if not totally)
cloud free during this time frame. Highs Sunday-Tuesday run a few
degrees below normal and lows during this time frame run 5-10
degrees below normal.

Noting that 1) the GFS has a known progressive bias in the long term
and 2) that the upper level pattern features closed lows and fairly
sharp ridges - both of which support a less progressive pattern -
favor the slower lifting of the ridge axis to the NE and arrival of
the next system in the ECMWF cmc global than the more progressive gfs
handling of both features. The forecast Tuesday night-Wednesday is
based on a blend of the ECMWF cmc global as a result.

Tuesday night should be dry as the deep layered ridge axis lifts to
the northeast. Most of Wednesday should probably be dry as well, but
to keep things simple, given the inherent uncertainty this far out,
have run chance pops the entire period for some warm advection
induced rains. Lows Tuesday night should be near to slightly above
normal and highs on Wednesday a few degrees below normal.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Low pressure passes to the south today.

Vfr bcmg MVFR to locally ifr after around 12z. Ra -shra through
around 12z, then a break until around noon when more rain
probably moves in.VFR returns late aftn.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi40 min 44°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi28 min E 1.9 G 3.9 45°F 45°F1005.7 hPa (-1.6)42°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi40 min 45°F 46°F1006.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 25 mi40 min N 5.1 G 6 45°F 1006.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi46 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 47°F1006.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi40 min 45°F 47°F1006.3 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi40 min N 7 G 8.9
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi38 min ESE 9.7 G 12 44°F 42°F3 ft1004.5 hPa (-3.2)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi46 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 42°F 42°F1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi37 minN 510.00 miOvercast44°F41°F89%1006.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi35 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F39°F89%1005.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi37 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast44°F35°F71%1006 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi37 minNE 310.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F86%1006 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13W17W13W15
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SW18SW16SW12SW9SW8SW7S6S5N7E4CalmE8N5
1 day agoW13W14W13W15
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2 days agoE22E19E19
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Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, Baldwin Bay, Long Island, New York
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Freeport
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.12.31.40.60.1-0.2-00.71.72.533.12.92.31.50.80.2-00.10.81.92.83.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:56 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.30.10.30.6110.4-0-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-00.20.40.810.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.