Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baldwin Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday June 21, 2018 2:57 AM EDT (06:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 1:41AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 111 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Periods of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 111 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary will track just south of the region overnight. This low exits to the east Thursday morning with weak high pressure building over the region. High pressure retreats to the north and east on Friday as the next frontal system approaches. This frontal system will move across the region this weekend. High pressure returns for next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baldwin Harbor, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.59     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 210546
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
146 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary tracks
just south of the region tonight. This low exits to the east
Thursday morning with weak high pressure building over the
region. High pressure retreats to the north and east on Friday
as the next frontal system approaches. This frontal system will
move across the region this weekend. High pressure returns for
next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
The 00z NAM is panning out with pcpn blossoming over the cwa.

The fcst has been adjusted with the highest rainfall axis
shifted further n. No other changes.

A weak upper level shortwave will move across the region
tonight, with low pressure tracking just south of the region
overnight. LLJ forcing, higher pwats (around 2"), and weak
instability will be close enough to present a quick period of
moderate to heavy rain.

Refer to the hydrology section of the afd for details on
expected rainfall amounts and any impacts.

Lows tonight fall into the 60s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
Any precipitation comes to an end Thursday morning, with high
pressure building in from the west. Drier conditions can then
be expected for the remainder of the day. Slowly clearing skies
will lead to partly to mostly sunny day. Daytime highs climb
into the 70s and 80s.

Fair conditions continue Thursday night as high pressure
continues to build into the region. Overnight lows will fall
into the 50s and 60s. A mav met ecs blend was in good agreement
and used for temperatures in the short term.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The main forecast challenge in the long term revolves around a
frontal system progged to impact the local area this weekend.

The frontal system will be in association with an upper low
than opens up as it lifts into the great lakes region. Ensemble
means and deterministic runs overall agree on the synoptic
evolution this weekend, but there are differences in timing and
amplitude of shortwaves within the upper low trough.

Upper ridging will be in place on Friday and the best forcing
will be located well to the south and west. The upper ridge axis
generally remains in place Friday night as the shortwave
approaches. At the surface, a warm front will approach from the
south enhancing low level warm advection. One of the biggest
uncertainties heading into Saturday revolves around how much
surface ridging lingers from the high pressure to the northeast.

The low level easterly flow may serve to enhance the surface
ridging, keeping subsidence and stable conditions across the
region. This may slow the progress of the warm front a bit as
well. At the same time, the upper low and trough are progged to
open up and broaden as the system lifts towards the great lakes.

The main upper trough axis swings through Saturday evening and
Saturday night leaving behind a westerly flow on Sunday. Another
upper trough should cross the region Sunday night into Monday,
finally taking the frontal system offshore.

For sensible weather, dry conditions are forecast on Friday
with gradually increasing pops on Friday night into Saturday
morning. The ECMWF appears quickest to break the surface ridging
with the warm front moving across much quicker than the gfs.

Have gone with a slower progression with likely pops spreading
across the area late Saturday morning into the afternoon. It
appears at this time the best forcing will be with the upper
shortwave axis and passage of the warm front Saturday evening
into Saturday night. Little to no instability is present on
model soundings during the day Saturday, so have removed mention
of thunder until Saturday evening and night. Conditions should
dry out Sunday with the region fully in the warm sector.

Westerly flow aloft and a much drier middle and upper
atmosphere prevents anything more than a chance for showers and
thunderstorms with a cold front nearby. The chance for showers
and thunderstorms continues into at least Monday morning with
the upper trough axis passing across. If the timing of the upper
trough is slower, pops may need to be increased on Monday.

While the weekend does not look like a washout, there will be
periods of showers and possible storms Saturday night into
Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any convection.

High pressure returns behind the upper trough and frontal
system moving offshore on Monday. The high will be in control
through the middle of the week.

Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday and then
above normal on Sunday. Temperatures should then average near
normal for next week.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
A wave of low pressure approaches from western pennsylvania,
passing near or just south of the terminals during the overnight
hours. A backdoor cold front moves into the terminals toward
00z Friday.

MVFR conditions in rain expected through the early morning
hours. Periods of ifr conditions are possible in any heavier
pockets of rain, primarily across the nyc and coastal terminals.

Rain then tapers off from west to east between 09z and 12z, with
conditions improving toVFR thereafter.

Light and variable winds overnight return out of the N to ne
around daybreak as the low passes to the south and east. NE to
at times E winds then continue through the day at around 10 kt
before diminishing tonight.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Thursday night and Friday Vfr.

Saturday Sub-vfr. Showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm
during the evening and nighttime hours.

Sunday Chance of sub-vfr conditions in showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday Chance of showers early, becomingVFR.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are expected on the area waters as a relaxed
pressure gradient remains over the area waters.

Winds will remain 10 kt or less through Thursday night. The
possible exception is over the coastal ocean waters west of
moriches inlet, where sustained winds up to around 15 kt are
possible.

Winds and seas will stay below SCA levels on Friday. A frontal
system impacting the waters this weekend may bring winds to around
20 kt on the ocean with seas gradually building as well. Seas may
build to 5 ft on the ocean on Sunday as a warm front moves north and
sw flow increases further.

Hydrology
A generally 1 2 to 1 inch of basin average rainfall can be
expected into this morning. Amounts may be less across the swrn
portion of the cwa.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible this weekend, especially late
Saturday into Saturday night. However, no significant widespread
hydrologic impacts are currently expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bc ds
near term... Bc jmc nv
short term... Bc
long term... Ds
aviation... Feb 19
marine... Bc ds
hydrology... Bc ds
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi40 min 65°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi28 min S 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 68°F1006.8 hPa68°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi40 min 69°F 67°F1008.4 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi38 min NNE 9.7 G 14 67°F 65°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi46 min E 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 70°F1008.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 25 mi40 min N 14 G 18 67°F 1008.1 hPa
44069 27 mi58 min SSE 5.8 G 12 68°F 76°F68°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi40 min 67°F 70°F1007.9 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi40 min N 12 G 17
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi68 min S 7.8 G 7.8 70°F 68°F2 ft1007.6 hPa (-1.2)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi46 min N 2.9 G 5.1 66°F 62°F1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi67 minN 010.00 miLight Rain70°F70°F100%1008 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi65 minNNE 43.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist69°F68°F96%1008 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi67 minNE 62.00 miRain Fog/Mist69°F66°F93%1007.7 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi67 minVar 43.00 miRain Fog/Mist68°F66°F96%1007.9 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE3N6NE7NE8E6E4SE7SE8SE7S6S6S8S11S12S12S12S15S10S6S8SE5CalmN5
1 day agoW7W10W9W8NW10NW13
G18
N13N13N13N13N11N11
G19
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N10S10S9S4CalmCalmE3E3NE7NE4N4
2 days agoSW6SW6S6S9S9S7S11S11S11S16S17S18S19
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S17S17S14SW13SW10SW8SW11W10W11

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, Baldwin Bay, Long Island, New York
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Freeport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:29 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:13 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:58 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.322.73.13.12.72.11.50.90.40.10.20.71.42.333.33.22.82.21.610.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:05 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.910.60.20-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.60.90.70.30.1-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.