Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baldwin Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday May 28, 2017 6:37 AM EDT (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:26AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 406 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 3 to 5 ft late. Chance of light rain after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt...becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and chance of tstms.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 406 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will gradually retreat to the northeast as a series of weak lows pass south of long island through Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night...and then move across on Wednesday. High pressure will then build in to the south and southwest through Thursday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baldwin Harbor, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.59     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 280805
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
405 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure gradually retreats to the northeast as a series of
weak lows track to the south of long island through Tuesday. A
weak cold front approaches from the west Tuesday night, then
crosses the area Wednesday. High pressure then builds in to the
south and southwest through Thursday night. A cold front
approaches on Friday then slowly crosses the area Friday night
and Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A deep layered northern stream ridge builds over the area today.

However, with abundant low level moisture being trapped under
the associated subsidence inversion, should see more clouds than
sun over the area. This coupled with onshore flow, should
result in temperatures being towards the cooler end of guidance.

This is consistent with a blend of ecs met guidance, NAM and
ecmwf 2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 975-925 hpa per
bufkit soundings. Highs should be around 5-10 degrees below
normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
The northern stream ridging slides offshore tonight, delaying
the onset of light rain (in response to increasing isentropic
lift) until mainly after midnight.

A northern stream shortwave pushes through the area Monday.

Along with it are some fairly steep mid level lapse rates,
reflected with showalters progged down to around -2 and possibly
as low as -4. This should be sufficient to turn the character of
the precipitation to more convective driven, so have gone with
showers with embedded thunderstorms. Noting showalters of -2 to
-4, cannot rule out some locally strong storms. With wetbulb
zero heights of 8000-9000 ft, small hail is a possibility.

There is also a very small chance of an isolated sever storm,
with the main threat hail of 1+" in diameter.

Precipitation should taper off from SW to NE this
afternoon early this evening as the shortwave trough lifts to
the ne.

Lows tonight should be near normal and highs Monday around 10
degrees below normal.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
A closed low will slowly track from SW ontario N great lakes
Monday night to pres over southern ontario will slowly track to
near the quebec ontario boarder by Thursday morning. There will
be shortwaves rotating around this rather broad closed low, that
could trigger some isolated to scattered showers from time to
time through Wednesday night, with the best chance over
northern zones.

The models then differ on how fast far the closed low works to
the east Thursday-Saturday, in part because they differ on how
it is re-enforced from the west. As a result, the forecast from
Thursday on is of at best low-moderate confidence in the
details.

For now it appears that Thursday and Thursday night should be
dry, with the region potentially in between main spokes of the
closed low. The next spoke then influences our weather Friday
or Saturday, so have just slight chance pops for now until the
timing of the system can be better refined.

Temperatures start out near normal Monday night and Tuesday,
should be above normal Wednesday, then near normal again
Thursday-Saturday.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure will remain fairly stationary to the east through
tonight. A frontal system will begin to approach late Sunday
night.

While bkn-ovc higher-based clouds cover most of the area,
satellite shows no sign of low cloud development south of long
island or east of the jersey shore, so for the most part have
omitted mention of lower CIGS through the morning, except at
kbdr kisp, where even the most optimistic of forecast guidance
still insists on MVFR CIGS anywhere from 09z-15z. Confidence
here is medium at best, and will still have to closely monitor
for any low cloud development. Confidence should be higher
with the 09z amd's.

Light se-s flow should become SE 8-12 kt by afternoon, then
diminish again tonight.

Some light rain with MVFR conds could reach the nyc metro
terminals just before 06z mon.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Late Sunday night MVFR conds developing from west to east,
with light rain especially from nyc metro on west.

Monday Showers likely and chance of tstms. Ifr conds
possible.

Monday night Still a chance of showers tstms early from
kbdr kisp east with MVFR or lower conds, otherwiseVFR.

Tuesday Chance of showers and possibly a TSTM with brief with
MVFR or lower conds in the afternoon evening.

Wednesday MainlyVFR. Chance of showers tstms mainly NW of
the nyc metro terminals.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
In the near term, will be watching the ocean waters mainly west of
moriches inlet for development of any fog before daybreak and
lasting into the morning. So far nothing has developed, but given
the moist onshore low level flow, cannot rule out the possibility.

An SCA may be needed for the ocean waters late tonight into the
daytime hours on Monday. Increasing SE flow looks to peak at
20g25kt Monday morning, with MAX seas per wavewatch and buoy
wind wave climatology 5, maybe 6 ft, with the higher conditions
and longer duration more likely to be out east during the
daytime hours on Monday.

Otherwise, sub-small craft advisory conditions are expected
through Thu night.

Hydrology
Dry today.

Total rainfall amounts tonight and Monday could range from
around 1 3 to 1 2 of an inch, with locally higher amounts
possible in areas experiencing strong convection Monday. In
areas that do experience strong convection, there is the
potential for at least localized ponding of water on roadways.

No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are then expected
at this time from Monday night through at least Thursday night.

Tides coastal flooding
Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected for the high tide
cycle tonight along the south shore bays of brooklyn, queens,
and nassau, also for the shores of westchester fairfield along
western long island sound. A coastal flood advisory continues
for these areas. Brief localized minor flooding possible
elsewhere along western long island sound and lower ny harbor.

While astronomical tides are lower for the Sunday night high
tide, surge will likely increase a bit with strengthening se
flow. The net result looks to be additional widespread minor
coastal flooding for the south shore bays of western long
island, with localized brief minor flooding possible for the
rest of the areas that have been affected over the last
several days.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Monday for nyz179.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Maloit
near term... Maloit
short term... Maloit
long term... 24 maloit
aviation... Goodman
marine... Goodman 24
hydrology... 24 maloit
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi50 min S 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 59°F1012.7 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 19 mi53 min 59°F 56°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi48 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 58°F 58°F2 ft1012.6 hPa (-0.3)57°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi53 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 57°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi50 min 60°F 59°F1012.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 25 mi50 min E 6 G 7 59°F 1013 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi50 min E 4.1 G 6 58°F 62°F1011.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi56 min 58°F 61°F1012.4 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi50 min ENE 5.1 G 6
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi48 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 57°F2 ft1012.6 hPa (-0.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi56 min ESE 1 G 1.9 58°F 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi47 minE 40.50 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1013 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi45 minESE 39.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F55°F93%1013 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi47 minENE 37.00 miOvercast59°F55°F90%1012.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi47 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW10NW4NW43SW11SW12SW10S8S11S11S6SE7E8E6E8SE6E5SE5SE3E3E3CalmE4
1 day agoN7NW4W7W11W10W10W14W17
G22
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NW11W12
G24
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2 days agoE12E9E11E17
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NE9E10
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E7E8NE11E9NE14N10NW11N16NW7NW6NW7N7

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, Baldwin Bay, Long Island, New York
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Freeport
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:27 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:40 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73210.2-0.4-0.50122.93.43.32.92.11.20.5-0-0.20.31.32.43.33.8

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:22 AM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:49 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:04 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.6-0.9-0.8-0.5-00.20.511.10.60.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.20.10.30.81.10.90.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.