Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baldwin Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:39PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 9:26 PM EST (02:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:48PMMoonset 10:42PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 630 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of sprinkles early this evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain and snow in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ300 630 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds into the waters from the west tonight and Wednesday, then begins to weaken Wednesday night. Low pressure will then track up the east coast on Thursday and pass through on Friday. High pressure then returns for Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baldwin Harbor, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.59     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 140016
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
716 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Strong high pressure will build in from the west through
Wednesday night. The high will then retreat northeast from new
england into the canadian maritimes Thursday into Thursday night
as intensifying low pressure moves up the coast. The low will
pass through on Friday, and then head northeast past the
canadian maritimes on Saturday as high pressure builds to the
south and west. A cold front will pass through on Sunday,
followed by another frontal system Sunday night into Monday
night.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
The forecast remains on track this evening with only minor
changes to account for the latest trends in temperatures and dew
points.

There could be some sprinkles into the early evening hours as weak
lift pushes through and interacts with remnant moisture. High
pressure otherwise builds in from the west tonight with a fairly
tight pressure gradient in place over the region as low pressure
deepens over the canadian maritimes. Breezy conditions will result,
and with a strong jet streak not too far to our north, plenty
of cirrus should remain into the late night hours after lower
and mid clouds scour out in the evening. The combination of
clouds and winds will prevent frost formation, so no frost
advisories are planned at this time. Lows in the low to mid 30s
across coastal sections and 25-30 inland.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Deep-layered ridging occurs on Wednesday with high pressure building
in, then the high shifts towards new england Wednesday night with a
continuation of dry weather and primarily cirrus streaming through
from time to time. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably cold
with both high and low temperatures averaging 10-15 colder than
normal. Wind chills will still be as low as the upper 20s to lower
30s even during the warmest part of the day. Most guidance shows
lows in nyc in the upper 20s or around 30, so will issue a freeze
watch for the remaining boroughs where the growing season has not
yet ended. Lows otherwise range downward into the teens across the
northern suburbs and the pine barrens region.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Main focus remains with the retreating high and approaching
coastal storm Thursday into Friday. Big picture remains much the
same as with the previous forecast, as a mid 1030s high retreats
ne, and as an upper low moving across the oh tn valleys spins up
sfc low pressure along the SE coast, which then heads up the
coast to a position along the jersey shore by 12z fri. The front
end of the storm holds the greatest concern as far as wintry wx,
as cad via the retreating high continues to supply cold air,
with snow likely all the way down to the coast on thu, perhaps
an inch or two for western long island, nyc metro, and coastal
ct before precip changes to rain by Thu evening. A more complex
scenario likely farther inland, as sfc temp remain AOB freezing
while warmer air moves in aloft on SE h8 flow, with primarily
an advy level snowfall of 2-3 inches, changing to sleet and then
freezing rain of less than 1 10 inch accretion during thu
night. ATTM probabilistic guidance indicates only a 10-20
percent chance of higher snow ice amts than currently fcst,
with MAX potential for 5-7 inches of snow and 1-2 tenths of an
inch of ice across the i-84 corridor in the lower hudson valley
and ct, also extending down into W passaic, and northern
rockland westchester.

Temps should warm enough during Fri morning to change precip to
all rain except perhaps in the highest elevations north west
of nyc.

This storm is still a couple of days away, so track and timing
changes are possible and could result in further changes to the
fcst.

For the weekend, a cooling trend as another shot of cold air comes
in for sun. Another frontal system should pass through with chances
for rain snow showers from Sunday night into Mon night. &&

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Canadian high pressure builds into the region through early
Wednesday evening.

Vfr through the TAF period, except for a brief period of MVFR
possible at kisp through around 1z.

Nw winds through the TAF period. Winds become gusty throughout
at all terminals by mid evening, with g20-25kt. Gusts should
abate by around 8-9z with sustained winds around 10-15kt. Gusts
resume around 13z with g around 20-25kt. Gusts should abate
around 22z with speeds around 10kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi39 min N 15 G 17 45°F 53°F1018.7 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 19 mi42 min W 14 G 18 53°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi37 min WNW 21 G 31 47°F 55°F7 ft1018.1 hPa36°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi39 min 44°F 53°F1018.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi39 min WNW 14 G 19 45°F 51°F1019.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 25 mi39 min WNW 19 G 22 45°F 1018.5 hPa
44069 27 mi57 min W 12 G 18 45°F 49°F37°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi39 min 45°F 51°F1018.3 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi39 min W 9.9 G 12
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi37 min NW 23 G 29 48°F 56°F9 ft1017.2 hPa (+3.5)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi45 min W 4.1 G 7 43°F 55°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi36 minWNW 18 G 2210.00 miOvercast and Breezy45°F33°F63%1018.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi34 minNW 9 G 2110.00 miOvercast44°F32°F63%1017.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi96 minNW 1610.00 miOvercast46°F33°F61%1016.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi36 minno data10.00 miOvercast44°F32°F63%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4NE4NE7NE8NE6NE7E5E4E6E11E7CalmNW18NW18
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1 day agoN4N3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmW4SW7S6SW7S7S5SE4E4E5E4E4NE4
2 days agoW13W13W11W12W11NW10W11W10NW9NW9W9W8NW14NW13NW10
G19
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W12W11W8W9W6W6NW5W5

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, Baldwin Bay, Long Island, New York
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Freeport
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:03 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:05 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:17 PM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:54 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.421.510.70.60.71.21.82.42.832.92.51.91.30.90.50.40.61.11.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM EST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:56 PM EST     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:08 PM EST     0.84 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.3-00.10.30.70.80.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.20.50.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.