Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:57PM Thursday January 18, 2018 8:45 AM EST (13:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:10AMMoonset 7:34PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 708 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of light freezing spray.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 708 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build to the southwest through tonight, then pass well south of long island Friday into Saturday as low pressure passes well to the north. A back door cold front will pass through late Saturday night into Sunday, then lift back slowly north as a warm front Monday into Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Park, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 181152
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
652 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds to the southwest through tonight, then well to
the south of long island Friday and Friday night, as an area of low
pressure passes well to the north of the region, then both of
these continue to move east on Saturday. A back door cold front
will pass through late Saturday night into Sunday, then lift
back slowly north as a warm front Monday into Monday night. A
stronger cold front will approach from the west late Monday
night, and pass through on Tuesday. A secondary cold front
approaches from the north on Tuesday night, then pushes to the
south on Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The black ice threat remains across the region this morning, have
addressed in an sps valid through 14z.

A closed 700-500 hpa low passes to the south this morning, followed
by shortwave ridging at 700-500 hpa building in this afternoon. With
forcing from the closed low passing well to the south, then
subsidence from the ridging this afternoon, it should be dry today.

Other than some passing mid-high clouds this morning (mainly over
southern zones), it should be mostly sunny today. Highs today should
be around 5 degrees below normal, with afternoon wind chills from
the upper 10s to mid 20s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
The 700-500 hpa shortwave ridging exits to the east this evening,
followed by a 700-500 hpa shortwave trough passing by overnight.

With the subsidence from the ridging this evening, and the main from
the shortwave staying to the north of the region, it should be dry
tonight. Could see some passing mid-high clouds overnight with the
shortwave, with the best chance over N zones. Lows tonight should be
around 5 degrees below normal, with wind chills from around 10 to 20
degrees.

Weakening northern stream ridging at 700-500 hpa crosses the area
Friday, giving way to zonal flow aloft Friday night. With shortwaves
staying well to the N and S of the area, and dry low to mid levels,
it should be dry with minimal cloud cover during this time frame.

Highs Friday should be near to slightly below normal, and lows
Friday night around 5 degrees above normal.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Flow aloft will be mainly zonal this weekend between a flat
trough to the north and a ridge over the southeast. The
resulting return flow should give us a mild weekend, with highs
on Sat in the lower 50s, then 45-50 on Sunday with
approach passage of a weak back door cold front.

High pressure will nose down into new england Sunday night into mon
while a warm front associated with strengthening low pressure moving
ne across the plains states approaches. There is some question as to
amount of warming aloft that will take place with the front, and
some spotty light wintry precip is possible late Sunday night into
mon morning, especially inland NW of nyc. Precip chances should
gradually increase Mon afternoon evening with the warm front
just off to the sw, and deep layer SW flow having begun after
passage of an upper ridge axis.

Models continue to trend later with moderate to locally heavy
rainfall ahead of a sfc cold front and negatively tilted upper
trough, and have pushed greatest chances ahead to daytime tue. Temps
on Tue ahead of the front should be on the mild side, with upper 40s
inland and lower 50s nyc metro long island. Temps should cool down
thereafter for mid next week but still remain above avg, with
building high pressure after the cold frontal passage being a combo
of maritime pacific and or modified continental polar origin.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds south of the region through Friday.

Vfr conditions will remain through the TAF period.

Winds and gusts have subsided early this morning. The winds
will strengthen again, with gusts at or just above 20 kt for the
late morning and into the afternoon. Winds will likely waver
between 300 and 330 magnetic during the day, likely averaging
just left of 310 magnetic for the morning push and then just to
the right for the aft eve push. Winds and gusts subside Thursday
evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi51 min N 17 G 19 21°F 31°F1018.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi55 min NW 25 G 29 25°F 40°F3 ft1015.5 hPa (-0.8)17°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi51 min 21°F 34°F1018.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi51 min WNW 21 G 23 20°F 1018.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi51 min NW 20 G 22 21°F 31°F1018.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 25 mi51 min 19°F 34°F1018.7 hPa
MHRN6 26 mi51 min W 13 G 16
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi55 min NNW 18 G 21 25°F 42°F4 ft1016.3 hPa (-0.7)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi51 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 18°F 34°F1017 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi54 minNW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy22°F10°F60%1018.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi52 minNNW 11 G 1810.00 miFair20°F10°F65%1016.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi54 minWNW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy22°F9°F57%1018.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi54 minW 710.00 miFair21°F8°F57%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11N9NW8NW11NW13NW13NW11NW10NW13NW13NW13NW14NW14NW13NW13NW13NW11NW12NW16NW18
G23
NW17NW10NW5NW12
1 day agoE3CalmE5E3E7E5SE7E5E6E5E5NE5NE6N5NE5NE5N5N5N6N6NE5N4NW8NW10
2 days agoNE11NE15NE13NE14NE11NE13NE12NE9NE11NE10NE5NE6NE6NE6NE6NE4NE6NE8N8NE7NE8NE7NE3NE7

Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:12 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:10 AM EST     4.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:48 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:34 PM EST     3.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.90.3-00.212.13.23.94.243.42.41.40.5-0.1-0.30.21.22.233.43.43

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:37 AM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:48 PM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:27 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:00 PM EST     0.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.40.90.90.50.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.10.30.710.70.2-0.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.