Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:16PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:38 AM EDT (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:41AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 331 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late tonight...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Areas of fog early this morning. Chance of rain early. Areas of drizzle. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon...then becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 7 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 331 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will move N of the waters today. Weak low pressure approaches Tue...followed by a cold front Tue night. High pressure builds in Wed and Thu. Another low pressure system approaches Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Park, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 270923
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
523 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly lift through the tri-state region
today. A cold front with a wave of low pressure passes through
the region Tuesday night. High pressure builds in for
Wednesday and Thursday, and shifts offshore Thursday night. A
low pressure system approaches from the central united states
Thursday night and impacts the region Friday and Saturday. High
pressure returns for Sunday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Drizzle will continue this morning, with increasing lift
allowing for areas of steady rain to develop. Radar returns are
already showing this rain west of the hudson river. It will be
difficult to clear out this afternoon behind the front, with
significant moisture at or below 4000 ft depicted by the models.

This will keep the area from warming up to MAX potential, and
therefore limiting instability. Regardless, there could be
enough support from the upper jet to produce some showers this
afternoon into the early evening after the frontal passage. A
broad model consensus was used for temperatures today, with an
emphasis given to the raw model output.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday/
Convergence aloft in the dry layer does not seem conducive to
much rainfall tonight. As a result, only low chances for rain
were included in the forecast. If rain does develop, it may turn
out to be mainly sprinkles or light drizzle. Surprisingly big
differences exist between the NAM and GFS for Tuesday. The nam
holds off on the deep lift, and therefore the bulk of the rain,
for the entire day. The GFS brings in rain by morning. The ecmwf
supports the nam, by keeping the bulk of the rain with the main
shortwave. The GFS appears to be kicking off convection over
pennsylvania that brings residual energy in. The forecast sides
with the drier solutions, although there may be some showers or
pockets of light rain with weak vorticity advection and a moist
airmass. A blend of the models was used for temperatures.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
A southern stream shortwave over the oklahoma and kansas area
this Monday morning will weaken and track to the mid atlantic
coast Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a northern
stream longwave trough moving through south central canada moves
east and passes into northern new england Tuesday night. There
is still some differences in whether or not the two systems will
phase, with consensus for the south stream to be more
progressive and remain separate, and farther south than other
models, while dampening and exiting the mid atlantic. The
southern movement will keep an associated warm front to the
south. This southern and separate solution has been the trend
the last several runs. With higher confidence in precipitation
affecting the area, mainly the southern half of the cwa, will
have likely probabilities Tuesday night.

A northwest flow will persist across the region as surface
high pressure builds to the north and the upper northern stream
trough moves slowly off the northeast coast through Thursday
night. The surface high weakens Thursday night as another
southern stream shortwave approaches, however the upper ridge is
holding with the axis shifting east of the area Friday. The
southern stream system will also be weakening as the wave tracks
east. Have brought in chances late Thursday night into Friday
and this may be too quick if the ridge holds. The weakening low
will re develop off the mid atlantic coast Saturday with chances
of precipitation remaining into Saturday night. Cold air will
be in place across the northern tier and some of the
precipitation may fall as snow or a rain snow mix.

Weak high pressure returns for Sunday into Monday.

Aviation /09z Monday through Friday/
Low-level ridge continues to weaken and gives way to an
approaching warm front to the south for late this morning. This
front will lift slowly through during the late morning/early
afternoon hours, possibly washing out across or just north of
the area.

Lower ceilings, drizzle, and fog continue to work in from the
sw. Conditions have generally lowered through the overnight
with widespread lifr at most terminals leading up to the morning
push.

Ifr conditions could last through much of the period, especially
to the north and east of the nyc terminals due to the
uncertainty with the timing and final placement of the warm
front. Tafs have been updated to show llws for most terminals
for the mid to late morning. Moderate confidence in improving
visibilities and ceilings from 18z to 22z across most terminals,
before lowering ceilings and visibilities again for Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi50 min Calm G 0 38°F 39°F1021.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi48 min ENE 12 G 14 41°F 42°F5 ft1020.9 hPa (-2.2)41°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi50 min 39°F 41°F1021 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi50 min NNE 7 G 8 38°F 1021.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi50 min E 8.9 G 14 40°F 41°F1020.1 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi53 min E 16 G 19 37°F 3 ft37°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 25 mi50 min 39°F 42°F1021.4 hPa
MHRN6 26 mi50 min NNE 5.1 G 7
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi48 min E 9.7 G 12 42°F 40°F6 ft1020.2 hPa (-2.6)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi56 min E 7 G 12 37°F 1022 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi47 minENE 50.50 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist42°F41°F96%1021.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi45 minNE 40.75 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1021.5 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi47 minNE 91.50 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist40°F37°F89%1021.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi47 minE 52.50 miFog/Mist38°F37°F100%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE10NE10NE10E10E13E15E14E12E10E13E14E11E7NE9E10E12NE9NE8NE7E8E7NE6E5
1 day agoW7W5N4SW3Calm5S5N8N8SE9E6NE14SE8E9NE8E7NE11NE10NE8NE11NE7NE8NE10NE9
2 days agoSW13SW12S13S17S18S15S19S17S20
G26
S16S16S11S11S11S8SW8S6S7S8S11S8S4W12W13

Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:52 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:13 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.6-0.1-0.30.21.32.63.74.54.64.13.11.90.8-0.1-0.5-0.30.72.13.44.34.74.43.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.6-0.20.10.30.71.10.90.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.4-00.20.5110.50-0.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.