Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 26, 2019 10:56 AM EDT (14:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:46AMMoonset 12:25PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 624 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 624 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches today and passes through this evening, followed by weak high pressure for memorial day. Another warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just south of long island. The front should lift through by Thursday morning, followed by a cold frontal approach later Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Park, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 261108
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
708 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaches today and passes through this evening,
followed by weak high pressure for memorial day. Another warm front
will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south
into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just
south of long island. The front should lift through by Thursday
morning, followed by a cold frontal approach later Thursday. The
front may linger into Friday, then weak high pressure may build in
to start next weekend.

Near term through tonight
The forecast is mostly on track. Skies will continue to clear
this morning as the atmospheric column dries out. This, along
with an offshore wind component for much of the area will allow
for deep mixing and rapid heating this morning into early
afternoon. Mixing up to 800mb with temps at this level at 12-13c
during the mid-afternoon yields highs in the lower 90s across
ne nj and parts of nyc and adjacent suburbs. Immediate south
coasts will likely be limited to upper 70s lower 80s with sw
component to flow and hybrid afternoon sea breeze development
ahead of thermal troughing and approach of cold front.

Elsewhere, widespread mid to upper 80 degree temps, locally 90
degrees. These temps will be about 15-20 degrees above
seasonable. Surface dewpoints will keep heat index values within
a degree or two of the ambient temperature.

A cold front enters from the NW late in the day and moves through
the rest of area this evening. Ahead of it, a weak thermal trough
will develop across the region. Potential for showers and
thunderstorms will limited in spite of the surface heating and
building instability. Mid-level capping and the late timing of
dynamic lift along with limited available moisture will serve
to limit any activity to isolated scattered. Any thunderstorms
that manage to occur could have strong wind gusts with the given
speed shear and relatively dry conditions in the sub-cloud
layer with an inverted-v profile.

Moisture increases this evening along the cold front but with a more
stable atmosphere. Still, a chance of showers and thunderstorms
remains for some areas until around midnight. Drier air pushes in
overnight behind the cold front.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development today.

Short term Monday
Weak high pressure builds in for memorial day with dry weather and
less humid conditions than today. Mostly sunny with high
temperatures still above normal, but not a warm as today.

There is a low risk of rip current development on Sunday.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Much of this week will feature quasi-zonal flow aloft, with flat
ridging to the south, and a series of passing shortwave troughs
along with a nearby sfc warm front bringing inclement wx at
times beginning late Mon night. The warm front will approach
late Mon night into Tue with showers, also perhaps a few tstms
by Tue evening as mid levels destabilize, but remain just south
as a weak sfc low develops along it and ripples eastward.

The front should remain south until thu, with one more accompanying
round of showers tstms Wed night, then lift through Thu morning as
the flow aloft amplifies just enough in response to a weakening
upper low shearing out into the plains states. This should make thu
the warmest day of the upcoming work week, with highs in the 80s,
which along with dewpoints in the lower 60s, should provide
sufficient instability for afternoon evening tstms ahead of an
approaching cold front. Storms with the front could be strong
per ECMWF gfs consensus, with sfc-based LI -4c to -6c, mid
level flow 40-50 kt, and maglenta and sweat indices as low as 3
and nearing 300 respectively. Some recent events that looked
greater in the long term have not quite panned out, but the
accompanying air mass for this event is likely to be warmer
and more humid and therefor more unstable.

The sfc front could linger nearby into Fri morning per GFS as it
aligns with the flow aloft. With only slight chance pop this far
out in time. Otherwise weak high pressure should build in to
end the work week and start next weekend, before the next in the
train of disturbances follows possibly for next Sunday.

Aviation 11z Sunday through Thursday
A cold front approaches today and passes this evening.

Lingering stratus MVFR ceilings will scour out, withVFR
expected today. An isolated late day shower or thunderstorm is
possible, with brief MVFR conditions possible. Timing would be
21-23z. Coverage too low for inclusion in the forecast attm.

W winds 10 kt or less will increase as the morning progresses.

Winds should remain sw-w through the day 10-15 kt with gusts up
to 20 kt. The chance for a southerly sea breeze at coastal
terminals is low late this afternoon, but cannot be completely
ruled out. Winds then shift to the NW by evening, then n
overnight as they lighten.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday
Monday Vfr.

Tuesday MVFR or lower in likely showers. SE gusts to 20 kt
possible near the coast.

Wednesday Chance of MVFR or lower in showers thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday Chance of MVFR or lower in showers thunderstorms.

Sw wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions today with W to SW winds averaging around 10 kt,
although a late afternoon southerly coastal jet of 15-20 kt is
possible for the ny bight. Seas mostly 3 to 4 feet. Relatively
tranquil conditions expected for Monday.

Expecting quiet conds with respect to prevailing winds seas through
the longer term. Can't totally rule out onshore flow pushing seas
close to 5 ft on the outer ocean waters late day Tue into tue
evening and again Thu night, or sea breezes gusting to 25 kt thu
afternoon on the near shore ocean waters and the south shore bays of
long island. Tstms may also pose a hazard each late day and
evening during mid week, especially on thu.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated today tonight and probably for
much of the upcoming week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc goodman
near term... Jc
short term... Jc
long term... Goodman
aviation... Pw
marine... Jc goodman
hydrology... Jc goodman
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi57 min WNW 7 G 8 68°F 59°F1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi47 min S 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 59°F1014.5 hPa60°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi57 min 70°F 59°F1014.2 hPa (-0.4)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi57 min WSW 12 G 13 73°F 1014 hPa (-0.3)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi57 min WNW 8 G 8.9 68°F 64°F1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 25 mi63 min 74°F 64°F1014.3 hPa
MHRN6 26 mi57 min W 6 G 12
44069 31 mi72 min SW 9.7 G 12 66°F 66°F62°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi67 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 58°F4 ft1014.6 hPa (-0.3)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi63 min S 7 G 8 67°F 57°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi66 minWSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds73°F64°F76%1014.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi64 minVar 510.00 miFair76°F63°F64%1013.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi66 minNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F61°F64%1013.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair73°F63°F71%1014 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S12S13SE15S16S19S14S16S13S14S17S16S11S9S10S4S8SW8SW10W5W11W7SW8SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:43 AM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 03:24 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:39 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.33.73.83.42.821.410.70.81.322.63.13.43.432.41.91.61.31.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.20-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-000.30.70.70.30-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.100.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.