Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:07PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:09 PM EDT (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:47PMMoonset 7:03AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 406 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night...
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 406 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south tonight and Thursday before passing through late Thursday night. Deepening low pressure then lifts well to the north Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Park, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 202033
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
433 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will approach from the south through Thursday, pass
through late Thursday night, then intensify as it moves slowly
northeast toward the canadian maritimes Friday into Saturday.

High pressure building to the southwest on Sunday will give way
to a cold front on Monday. Low pressure will pass to the south
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
High pressure centered south of nova scotia drifts farther out
to sea. Meanwhile, a longwave trough to the west strengthens
low pressure over the carolinas. Moisture convergence along an
inverted trough extending north brings increasing clouds and low
chances of rain to mainly the southern and western sections of
the area. This could be a mix of rain and snow for the interior
should anything fall. The clouds and light onshore flow will
keep overnight lows above normal.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
A shortwave within the longwave trough begins to phase with a
southern stream shortwave on Thursday with the trough becoming
negatively tilted Thursday night. This will guide the surface
low towards us as it continues to strengthen. Rain spreads
across most, if not all of the area by day's end. The low then
passes through late at night with just a chance of lingering
light rainfall by the end of the night. Temperatures through the
event will be in the 40s.

This appears to be mainly a moderate rainfall event. The best
chances of any heavier downpours appear to be during the late
afternoon to evening hours. Along with a little elevated
instability, this is when the area will be on the NE side of a
theta- E ridge with relatively stronger moisture convergence and
enhanced lift via a low level jet. Currently not anticipating
any flash flooding issues, however there is at least a threat of
minor urban smaller stream flooding, more so across NE nj based
on 6 and 12-hour flash flood guidance values. Don't have at
least 50% confidence of exceeding FFG values so will hold off on
issuing a watch.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Strengthening NW winds will be the main issue as low pressure
passing through the area early Fri morning continues to phase
with a digging northern stream trough on its back side and
intensifies into a 980-ish mb low on its way through the gulf of
maine and into the canadian maritimes. Expect sustained winds at
least 25-30 mph with gusts 40-45 mph as the pressure gradient
tightens late Fri night into sat, with the strongest winds in
the nyc metro area and across long island. Largest pressure
rises likely to pass mainly well north, but could clip southern
ct and eastern long island late day Sat and keep period of
strongest winds going into the evening there.

After sfc high pressure passes to the SW on Sunday, an arctic
cold front will approach and pass through on mon, then stall to
the south while low pressure rides east along it per ecmwf. The
cwa looks to be close to the northern fringe of its precip
shield, and have chance pop mainly for nyc metro and long island
tue into wed. P-type forecast starts out as snow but then
becomes increasingly uncertain with time, with greater
likelihood of mixed precip or even rain per 00z ECMWF partial
thickness forecast. Today's 12z ECMWF is more suppressed, which
would lead to little if any QPF and greater likelihood of snow--
if this system follows the trend of previous low pressure
systems this appears less likely to occur than the 00z fcst.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
High pressure shifts offshore through tonight as a low pressure
develops along the southeast coast and tracks north towards the
terminals Thursday morning.

Winds gradually back to the s-se this afternoon, generally
10-13kt. There may be a brief gust close to 20 kt between
18-22z. SE winds diminish after 23z before backing towards the
e and increasing late tonight and Thursday morning.

Vfr through much of the TAF period with conditions beginning to
lower to MVFR in developing -ra Thursday morning. Conditions may
further lower after 18z Thursday with potential wind shear at
coastal terminals, 45 kt at 3kft.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi40 min SSW 16 G 20 46°F 40°F1027.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi30 min SE 9.7 G 9.7 43°F 43°F1027.4 hPa35°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi40 min 47°F 42°F1026.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi40 min SSE 21 G 27 44°F 1026.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi40 min SSE 16 G 19 44°F 46°F1027.8 hPa
MHRN6 26 mi40 min SSE 14 G 20
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi80 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 43°F 46°F1 ft1027.9 hPa (-1.8)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi46 min SSW 14 G 18 46°F 40°F1026.1 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi79 minSSE 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F26°F42%1027.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi77 minS 1310.00 miFair47°F21°F36%1027.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi79 minS 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F18°F28%1026.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi79 minno data10.00 miFair52°F19°F27%1026.2 hPa

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12SW16S12S11S10S9SW7SW7SW6SW5S3SW3S3CalmSE4S4SW7SW7S6SW8S12S12S15S14
1 day agoS13S13S14S12S9SW8SW5SW5SW6W5CalmN9N5N7N5N7N7NW3W64W7S12S12SW14
2 days agoNW9
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W13NW14NW12NW16N13N10N9N6N8N4N4CalmCalmN4CalmN10
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G15

Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:44 AM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:42 AM EDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:18 PM EDT     -0.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.3-0.5-0.7-01.32.744.854.43.320.8-0.3-0.8-0.70.31.83.24.44.94.73.8

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:15 PM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.40.91.20.80.30-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.4-0.10.20.71.110.50.1-0.2-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.