Tuesday, March20, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Elizabeth, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:10PM Tuesday March 20, 2018 9:20 AM EDT (13:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:59AMMoonset 10:35PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 449 Am Edt Tue Mar 20 2018
.gale warning in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft, then 2 to 3 ft late. Chance of rain and snow.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain and snow this evening, then snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Snow and sleet with freezing rain likely in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning, then less than 1 nm.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Snow, mainly in the evening. Vsby less than 1 nm, then 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
ANZ300 449 Am Edt Tue Mar 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will begin to retreat to the north today as low pressure passes to the south. Another much stronger low will impact the waters tonight into Wednesday night, then depart into the canadian maritimes on Thursday. High pressure will then build from eastern canada through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth, NJ
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location: 40.65, -74.18     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201127
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
727 am edt Tue mar 20 2018

Arctic high pressure will begin to retreat to the north as a
significant low pressure system approaches from the south. The
developing coastal system will impact the area through
Wednesday, before finally departing to the northeast into the
canadian maritimes on Thursday. High pressure then builds from
eastern canada through the weekend. Another storm system may be
possible for early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
With the antecedent dry conditions due to the prevailing arctic
high, the onset of any precipitation expected with the
developing coastal storm has once again been delayed until
afternoon or evening. Any precipitation will initially be light
and largely confined to the southern-most areas - northern nj,
the nyc metro and long island. With saturation expected to be
slow and precipitation light, any evaporative cooling will be
minimal, so precipitation type may initially be rain or perhaps
a slushy rain snow mix as high temperatures will be in the upper
30s to lower 40s. Temperatures are still around 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
The main story is the developing nor'easter. Winter storm
watches have been converted to warnings across all areas except
eastern suffolk county, where the highest uncertainty in
precipitation type resides. Steadier precipitation is expected
to develop after around midnight from south to north tonight,
becoming more intense through the Wednesday morning commute.

Areas from about nyc eastward will also need to be monitored for
a potential blizzard warning with strong winds around 20-30 mph
with gusts up to 45 mph are expected. Primary uncertainty may
be with visibilities, as snow ratios will be lower across these
areas leading to a wetter, heavier snow.

Snow totals have once again been increased. Initially
precipitation types will be mixed as strong easterly flow above
the surface advects warmer temperatures westward. For now went
with a GFS nam blend for precipitation types. It should be
noted that the NAM tends to be warmer in these warm advection
scenarios, which would lead to more significant accumulations of
freezing rain for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but
based on similar events a mix of sleet, wet heavy snow and
perhaps minimal accumulations of freezing rain seem more likely,
especially closer to the coast.

By Wednesday afternoon to evening, the storm intensifies amidst
strong diffluence divergence aloft as the upper low passes just
to the south. Given strong convergence at the surface to the
northwest of the low and vorticity maximized in a corridor
roughly from connecticut through nyc into nj, expect the
development of a potentially significant snow band, with any
mixed precipitation quickly transitioning to heavy snow as a
result of dynamic cooling. The heaviest snow rates will be
possible around this time, with 1-2" hr possible. Additionally,
temperatures aloft will rapidly cool as the upper low passes
just offshore, which may provide enough elevated instability for
charge separation, and thundersnow with locally higher rates.

As the system ejects to the east-northeast, the snow band(s)
will rotate eastward, allowing any remaining areas still in
mixed precipitation to transition to all snow as well. For some
areas farther east, particularly eastern long island and
southeast connecticut, the time frame after 8 pm as the band(s)
pull east may be the period of best snowfall potential with the
highest rates of accumulation. Also note, that given this is a
late season event and temperatures will be somewhat marginal,
snowfall is once again expected to be heavy, and combined with
strong winds may lead to downed trees and powerlines.

High pressure then builds into the area again following the
departure of the low pressure system, allowing precipitation to
taper off from west to east during the early morning. At least
light snow may linger across eastern long island and connecticut
through the morning rush, but the more significant accumulations
will have ended. Conditions will remain breezy on Thursday, with
below normal temperatures continuing.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Generally dry conditions will continue through the first half
of the weekend. Some weak forcing may spark off a few snow
showers or flurries late Saturday with an upper level low off
the new england coast, but not enough confidence to put it in
the forecast as of yet. However, the bigger story will be the
potential for another low pressure system to affect the region
for the second half of the weekend.

There are significant differences in the model solutions, both in
the deterministic and ensemble models, for the second half of the
weekend and the potential low pressure system to affect the area.

The main differences stem from orientation of a strong 1043 mb
surface high pressure over southern canada Saturday that digs all
the way south into florida and the southeast us coast. The 19 12z
ecmwf pinches off a piece of this high Saturday night, giving an
area of low pressure developing over the mid-west a path between the
two highs to move toward our region. The 19 12z GFS does not pinch
off this high as notably as the ecmwf, with more of a cold air
damming signature noted on Sunday, when the ECMWF pushes the low off
the carolina coast, with our region on the northern fringes of the
precipitation field. The low is then forecast to pass well south of
our area and then east out to sea Sunday night. The GFS suppress the
low well south and weakens it. This latest model run of the ECMWF is
more in line with the gfs. Given forecast uncertainty, will not make
much in the way of changes.

Proximity of the low to the coast will determine precipitation
types. If the ECMWF is to be believed, the track is a bit different
to previous storms, at least with its approach to the area, with a
more west to east track, then head northeast east, as opposed to
development or redevelopment off the mid-atlantic coast and heading
northeast. However, it will be cold enough for some snow.

Temperatures during the long term will average below normal with a
persistent northwesterly flow.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure gives way to a series of lows passing to the south and
east of the area, the first this evening, and then another on

Vfr today and through the evening with lowering clouds. Light
ne winds this morning gradually ramp up during the day. Gusts to
around 20 kt are expected at the coastal terminals in the
afternoon and increasing to 25-30 kt into tonight. Inland gusts
will be a bit weaker.

There is a chance of a light wintry mix developing this
evening. MVFR is possible late at night as wintry precipitation
moves north. The brunt of the precipitation is currently
forecast to develop on Wednesday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 1 mi51 min NNE 11 G 12
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 2 mi57 min 32°F 40°F1014.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 6 mi51 min ENE 11 G 12 32°F 1015.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 9 mi51 min 32°F 40°F1015.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi51 min ENE 8.9 G 14 32°F 40°F1015.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 25 mi51 min E 7 G 8.9 30°F 39°F1016.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi41 min NE 18 G 19 34°F 40°F1014.5 hPa20°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 47 mi51 min E 8.9 G 13 34°F 42°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ4 mi30 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast32°F10°F40%1014.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY14 mi90 minE 710.00 miFair31°F7°F36%1014.7 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ16 mi30 minNNE 810.00 miFair31°F9°F40%1015.1 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ16 mi36 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F14°F55%1014.9 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ17 mi28 minNE 610.00 miFair29°F9°F43%1015.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY18 mi30 minNE 910.00 miOvercast33°F12°F43%1015 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi30 minNNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F12°F45%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN74NW6W7NW12
1 day agoNW18
2 days agoW12

Tide / Current Tables for Port Ivory, Howland Hook, New York
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Port Ivory
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Tue -- 05:22 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT     5.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:31 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:18 PM EDT     5.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
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Tue -- 01:59 AM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM EDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:25 PM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT     2.30 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.