Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:37PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 7:58 PM EST (00:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:53AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 621 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers until early morning, then slight chance of showers late.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 621 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west, moves through overnight and stalls to the south on Thursday. A wave of low pressure will then move across on Friday, followed by a brief respite on Saturday before a more significant frontal system moves across on Sunday. High pressure will follow for Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree CDP, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220017
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
717 pm est Wed feb 21 2018

Synopsis
A slow moving cold front will approach from the west, move
through overnight, and stall to the south on Thursday. A wave of
low pressure will then move across on Friday, followed by a
brief respite on Saturday before a more significant frontal
system moves across on Sunday. High pressure will follow for
Monday through Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
No major changes to the forecast. The cold front is slowly
progressing southeastward and will allow temperatures to
gradually return closer to normal tonight.

Preliminarily, record highs have been reached at nearly all of
our climatological sites. Kisp has a previous record of 63
degrees achieved in 2002, but due to earlier fog and stratus has
been slower to rise compared to sites farther west. It is
possible that the temperature could still rise further over the
next few hours, placing the record in jeopardy.

New record event reports (rer) have been issued as of 430-450
pm. Notably, the 78 degrees at central park is preliminarily the
highest temperature recorded in february, breaking the previous
record of 75 set on february 24, 1985. Similarly, la guardia
has preliminarily broken a monthly record with a temperature
today of 78 degrees, breaking the previous record of 74 set on
february 15, 1949. Newark reached a high of 80 degrees,
preliminarily breaking the previous monthly record of 76 on
february 15, 1949.

Temperatures are still fluctuating, so these aforementioned
records are still subject to change the next few hours. Truly an
incredible pattern overall, more reminiscent of august with a
strong subtropical high pressure. 850 mb temperatures for this
morning's 12z sounding smashed previous records for this time of
year, and are closer to the 90th percentile values for a typical
summer pattern. 500 mb temperatures appear to be record values
as well, and closer to the 90th percentile values summer around
-10.5 degrees. Furthermore, per naefs ensemble archives, the ridge
is of record heights at all levels for this time of year.

The summer-like pattern will abruptly come to an end this
evening into the overnight hours as a cold front moves northwest
to southeast across the area. The line of showers will weaken as
it approaches the strong ridge, then sag and stall to the south
of the area Thursday morning. Temperatures will return to near
normal values behind the front - generally in the 30s to 40s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
A wave will move along the stalled frontal boundary, setting up a
period of precipitation from late Thursday morning into Thursday
evening. With the surface high building southeastward, colder
air will settle into the area, though aloft temperatures will
remain somewhat warm in the 800 mb to 700 mb layer. For most
locations, the precipitation type will be a cold rain, however
for interior areas north and west of nyc there is potential for
a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow around the evening
commute. These areas will need to be monitored for the
possibility of a winter weather advisory.

As colder air filters into the region, afternoon temperatures
will be 20 to 30 degrees colder than Wednesday. Daytime highs in
the lower to mid 40s will likely occur in the morning, with
temperatures falling into the 30s in the afternoon.

Temperatures on Thursday night will be a few degrees above
normal, in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
With strong high pressure passing to the north and resulting
cold air damming in place, also warmer air surging in aloft,
there could be some sleet and or freezing rain Fri morning as
the next in a series of waves of low pressure rides atop the
anomalously strong upper ridge to the south. There could be a
brief respite from precip on Saturday as this wave passes east
and weak high pressure passes to the north, with skies clearing
for a time across southern ct as drier air filters in.

Rain chances should again increase Sat night into Sunday with
the approach of a warm front in advance of low pressure moving
from the plains toward the upper great lakes. An associated
trailing cold front should then move through Sunday night,
followed by fair and slightly cooler wx Mon through Wed as
high pressure builds in.

Temps look to be above normal through the period, warmest during
the weekend with the approach of the warm front.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
A cold front moves across the area this evening. A weak area of
low pressure tracks south of the area Thursday.

Winds shift to the NW between 01z and 03z. Brief gusts 25-30 kt
possible with frontal passage. Otherwise, gusts 15 to 20 kt for
nyc nj terminals through around 06z in its wake.

Vfr through Thursday morning, with the potential for some
pockets of MVFR CIGS tonight. Deteriorating conds to MVFR ifr
during the late morning early afternoon Thursday. Wintry mix
likely for swf, spreading south towards kbdr khpn by late
afternoon. Nyc nj and LI terminals should be mainly rain, but
can't rule out some ip mixing in late afternoon evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi41 min SSW 9.9 G 9.9 64°F 39°F1025.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi69 min SSW 14 G 18 48°F 43°F5 ft1025.3 hPa (+1.5)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi29 min SSW 12 G 14 47°F 42°F1025.1 hPa45°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi41 min S 2.9 G 4.1
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi41 min 71°F 40°F1025.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi41 min SW 9.9 G 12 67°F 46°F1025.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi41 min WSW 5.1 G 8 73°F 1025.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi47 min 72°F 42°F1024.4 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi41 min SW 8 G 11
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi66 min SSW 12 G 14 46°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi41 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 55°F 39°F1025.3 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi66 minSW 810.00 miFair55°F51°F87%1025.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi63 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F52°F93%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S5SW6SW6SW8SW7SW9SW7SW11
G20
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1 day agoS11SW9SW10SW11SW8SW10SW8SW6S5S3S5SW3SW4SW5W9W14W11W12W15SW7S7S6S3S5
2 days ago3E3E3NW3NE4CalmE5CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS7S10S11S12S10S7S8S8S8S10S9

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Beach, Great South Bay, New York
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Oak Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:23 AM EST     0.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:51 PM EST     0.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:29 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.70.70.60.50.30.20.100.10.20.40.50.60.70.60.50.30.20.1000.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:22 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:28 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:49 PM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.21.21.10.90.60.30.10.10.10.30.60.91.11.11.10.90.60.30.1000.20.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.