Wednesday, August23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 4:22 AM EDT (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:05AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 348 Am Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 348 Am Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front exits to the east this morning, followed by canadian high pressure building into the region through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree CDP, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230735
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
335 am edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front exits to the east this morning, followed by
canadian high pressure building into the region through the
weekend. Low pressure may impact the area during the middle of
next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
There should be a few lingering showers mainly over long island
early this morning, otherwise today should be mainly dry.

Negative vorticity advection (nva) from around 700-500 hpa in
the wake of a northern stream shortwave will be responsible for
causing the showers to come to an abrupt end.

The strong NVA will also result in a fairly rapid clearing of
the sky this morning as well.

With abundant sunshine this afternoon, highs should reach up to
5 degrees above normal, with the largest departures over eastern
zones. Highs should range from around 80 to the mid 80s across
most of the area.

There is a moderate rip current risk for Wednesday.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
A mean trough builds into the eastern 1 3 of the country tonight
and Thursday, with the trough axis staying well to the west. At
this time no significant shortwaves are progged to be embedded
in the resultant SW flow aloft, so it should be dry tonight and
Thursday with minimal cloud cover.

With a mostly clear to clear sky and winds falling off to
generally 5 mph or less outside of urban areas, should see some
decent radiational cooling outside of urban areas. Lows should
range from near normal in the nyc metro to up to 5 degrees below
normal elsewhere. Lows into the 50s are expected outside of the
nyc metro, western long island and the immediate ct coast, where
60s are forecast.

Highs on Thursday will be around 5 degrees cooler than today,
mainly from the mid 70s to around 80.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
A broad area of canadian high pressure will build over the northeast
thru the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will
produce fair weather with blw average temps. A blend of the guidance
was used which was in good agreement. Cyclonic flow aloft will
result in diurnal CU at times, and an isold shwr cannot be ruled
out. The exact coverage, placement and timing is too uncertain to
include anything in the fcst ATTM except for NRN orange county on
fri where there is a clustering of model output. A 15 pop was
included there.

The models are suggesting the development of low pres off the mid-
atlantic during the middle of next week. Both the 00z GFS and ecmwf
have something. A consensus of all the models was used for pcpn
potential, and pops were limited to the slight chance category due
to the time window being a week out with high uncertainty.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front will move across the region this morning.

The bulk of the precipitation has come to an end, however there may
still be some left over lingering showers through 10-12z.

MainlyVFR conditions are being observed, however some MVFR to
locally ifr conditions may develop specially outside of the nyc
terminals until cold front passes.

Winds will gradually shift from the west-southwest to the northeast
as the front comes through. Some occasional gusts to around 20
kt may be possible at coastal terminals through 12z.

Northwest flow may be just strong enough to preclude seabreeze
development this afternoon. Otherwise...VFR.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Wednesday night-Sunday Vfr.

Marine
The pressure gradient begins to relax today, with sustained
winds up to 15 kt and some isolated gusts up to 25 kt possible
on the coastal ocean waters. Seas on the coastal ocean waters
will diminish through the day, falling to below SCA levels W of
moriches inlet by 11 am and E of moriches inlet by 2pm. As a
result have left the small craft advisory (sca) on the coastal
ocean waters as is. With frequent wind gusts to 25 kt no longer
occurring on the non-ocean waters, have canceled the SCA there.

A light pressure gradient will set up over the waters by
tonight and continue on Thursday, with winds 10 kt or less.

Seas and waves will be below small craft levels as well tonight
and Thursday.

Wind and seas will remain below SCA levels Thursday night
through Sunday night.

Hydrology
It will be mainly dry today, then dry tonight through the
weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
Tides are running high astronomically. Water levels may again
approach minor flood levels across mainly the south shore bays
of long island and nyc with tonight's high tide, but high likely
will run a half a foot or so below minor flood benchmarks.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for anz353-
355.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz350.

Synopsis... Maloit jmc
near term... Maloit
short term... Maloit
long term... Jmc
aviation... Bc
marine... Maloit jmc
hydrology... Maloit jmc
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi67 min W 16 G 19 75°F 79°F75°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi52 min WSW 8 G 13 74°F 75°F1007.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi92 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 73°F6 ft1008.5 hPa (-0.5)69°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi92 min SW 16 G 19 74°F 75°F5 ft1007.4 hPa (-1.7)72°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi52 min WSW 6 G 8.9 73°F 75°F1006.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi52 min 74°F 76°F1007.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi52 min SW 11 G 13 74°F 80°F1007.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi52 min WSW 9.9 G 11 1008.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi52 min 73°F 76°F1007.7 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi52 min SW 6 G 8.9
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi52 min W 7 G 9.9 74°F 78°F1006.9 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N12
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--
SW2
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi29 minWSW 710.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1007.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi86 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F72°F96%1007.6 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW6SW6SW7SW6SW7SW9SW11SW10S13SW10SW15S19
G23
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W11W9SW7SW8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3W3W5W7SW7W7S12SW14SW10S12SW15SW13SW11SW10SW11SW9SW9SW10SW8SW7SW6
2 days ago5NW4NW6W7NW9
G15
NW7N8NW3NW7N8W9
G18
NW10N7NW7
G14
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5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Beach, Great South Bay, New York
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Oak Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.60.40.20.1-0.1-0.10.10.30.60.80.90.80.70.50.30.10-00.10.30.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:51 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:06 PM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.20.10.50.91.31.51.41.20.90.60.30-0.10.10.50.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.