Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:03PM Sunday October 22, 2017 1:28 PM EDT (17:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 8:07PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 112 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of sprinkles in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Areas of drizzle in the evening, then drizzle with light rain likely after midnight. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of tstms in the evening. Rain.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 112 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the region will slowly shift east through Monday. A cold front slowly approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday. The front lingers within the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday before moving east of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree CDP, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221324
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
924 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
Dry and mild today as high pressure pulls away from the region.

The weather then becomes rather unsettled for Tuesday and
Wednesday with potentially heavy rain. Relatively strong gust
winds are likely on Tuesday. Dry weather returns for late week
into the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Unseasonably warm and fair weather continue today. Just some cirrus
filtering sunshine, with temps still about 15 degrees above
normal in the mid to upper 70s. Temps are expected to fall
short of records by a few degrees along the coast, and several
degrees for the nyc nj metro.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Low level moisture increases tonight with a light SE flow.

Models suggest stratus moving in with better chances of at least
a broken deck occurring west of eastern LI and ct. This leads
to a partly to mostly cloudy Monday. There appears to be enough
isentropic and low level lift for a chance of a sprinkle in the
afternoon as there's significant subsidence above 800 hpa
causing stratocu to spread.

Highs will still range mostly 70-75.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Nwp remains on track with a deep upper level trough with strong
meridional flow approaching the region Monday night as the jet
dives into the southeast. The question that remains is the
timing of the very slow moving frontal passage. The GEFS has
about 10 members that support the slower deterministic ecmwf
timing. Thus, a good chance for rain to continue through
Wednesday especially on long island and ct.

Then, mainly dry weather is expected by Thursday night through
next weekend.

Winds are a potential issue Tuesday through Tuesday evening.

There is a low level jet ahead of the cold front and the models
have pretty good agreement with the 50-60 kt magnitude. Thinking
of gusts of 35 to perhaps 45 kt.

Have kept the tstms for Tue aftn and evening with potential for
long narrow cape.

Aviation 13z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr through at least 06z Mon as high pres gradually moves east
through tonight.

S SE winds 8-12 kt develop later this morning and afternoon
with seabreeze enhancement at coastal terminals.

Aft 06z tonight, the second night of onshore flow, may start
seeing indications of fog and or stratus development, however
the high may not be far enough offshore for MVFR ifr cigs. High
clouds could also limit fog development. Would like to see more
of the hi-res guidance later today before committing to ifr
conds.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday
Mon Morning MVFR ifr possible in stratus fog, thenVFR. S se
g20 kt Mon aftn.

Mon night-tue Potential a period of S SE g30-40 kt with llws
ssw 45-55kt@2kft for coastal terminals. MVFR ifr developing in
-radz Mon night, continuing with shra and low prob sparse tsra
tue.

Tue night-wed Ifr possibly continues in shra Tue night,
improving to MVFR wed.

Wed night-thu Vfr, with iso-sct MVFR in shra.

Marine
Quiet conds on all waters through Mon as high pressure over the
area slowly shifts east. The pressure gradient will begin to
tighten on Mon as low pressure strengthens over the great lakes.

Sca conds are expected to develop Mon night with the potential
for gale force gusts Tue into Tue night, all waters. The gale
potential will depend on mixing over the waters, but should be
able to mix down 35-40kt forecast at 1000mb, especially over the
ocean. Winds just off the deck may be slightly weaker on the
non- ocean waters and gales may only occur with any heavier
showers tstms.

Winds will slowly diminish from W to E Tue night, and the
progression of the front LLJ will determine the end time for the
sca gale hazards. May need to keep headlines up into Wed for the
eastern waters. Seas on the ocean are forecast to remain above
5 ft through thu, due to a SE swell from a good fetch around
the departing high. This could be overdone however.

Hydrology
Expect nuisance urban ponding late Tuesday into Wednesday,
especially across the ny metro, long island and southern ct.

Storm total of 1.5 to 3" now expected, but flash and river
flooding are not anticipated.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tongue
near term... Tongue
short term... Tongue
long term... Tongue
aviation... 24
marine... 24
hydrology... Tongue


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi58 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 65°F 62°F62°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 26 mi43 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 66°F 1 ft58°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi40 min Calm G 1.9 68°F 65°F1029.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi43 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 58°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi38 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 65°F2 ft1030 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi38 min S 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 65°F1 ft1029 hPa (-0.4)57°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi46 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 65°F1028.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi40 min 67°F 65°F1029.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi40 min SE 7 G 9.9 68°F 63°F1030.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi40 min S 9.9 G 11 65°F 1030 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi40 min 74°F 65°F1029 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi40 min SSE 2.9 G 8.9
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi88 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 66°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi40 min SSW 6 G 6 63°F 66°F1029.6 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi35 minS 710.00 miFair72°F48°F44%1029.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi32 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F53°F52%1029.4 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S10S9SW8SW8SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S7S7
1 day agoNW9W9NW9NW6W4N3N3CalmN3NW3CalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmN4N3N6N5N3W44SW8
2 days agoSW12S11SW13SW13
G18
SW10SW12SW8SW6SW7SW7SW5W7W7W7W5CalmW4NW3NW7NW8NW8NW8NW5W8
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Beach, Great South Bay, New York
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Oak Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:29 PM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:28 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.60.40.30.20.100.10.30.50.70.80.80.70.60.40.20.1000.20.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:08 AM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:30 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.210.80.50.30.100.10.50.91.21.41.41.310.70.40.20.100.30.60.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.