Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:07PM Thursday March 21, 2019 5:39 PM EDT (21:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 335 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds around 15 kt, increasing to around 20 kt late this evening and early morning, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 335 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes through late tonight into Friday morning. The deepening low then lifts to the north Friday and into Saturday as high pressure builds over the waters through Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front Monday. High pressure returns on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree CDP, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 212026
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
426 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure passes through late tonight into Friday morning,
then intensifies as it moves slowly northeast toward the
canadian maritimes later Friday into Saturday. High pressure
builds to the south and west of the area through Sunday night,
followed by a cold frontal passage Monday. High pressure then
builds in through mid week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Surface low strengthens as it heads north towards us. Its center
moves in overhead towards daybreak. Ahead of it, lift from a LLJ and
good moisture convergence and perhaps a little instability aloft
combine for moderate rainfall. The rain could be heavy at times
until these factors shift out of the area late at night. Can't
completely rule out a rumble of thunder, but will leave it out
the mention of it due its low probability and coverage. It
still appears that rainfall rates would fall short of flash
flood guidance, but minor urban and small stream flooding remain
possible.

Temperatures will drop off slightly this evening, but will remain in
the 40s for the most part.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Friday begins with the surface low right over the forecast area
which deepens and shifts NE more rapidly along with a closed low
aloft. Another closed low and shortwave then approach us from the
great lakes. Lingering rain directly associated with the low shifts
north out of the area during the morning, then the cold pool aloft
and approaching lift maintain a threat of showers mainly north and
west of the city. Wnw winds begin to increase in response to the
deepening surface low to the NE with gusts up to around 35 mph
possible in the afternoon. Highs range mostly in the mid and upper
40s.

The shortwave upper low shift through during the evening, bringing a
chance of pcpn to the entire area, which could be a mix of rain and
snow north of the city. Looks like only areas north and east of the
city would still have a chance of additional pcpn after midnight. It
remains breezy through the night with a gusty westerly flow
increasing, but likely remaining below advisory criteria. A few
gusts may still approach 45 mph.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
A strong upper low lifts northward across the canadian maritimes
on Saturday with shortwave ridging building in on the backside
Saturday night through Sunday. This will be short-lived though
as a polar vortex over hudson bay drops into eastern canada.

The latter of which will send a strong cold front through the
region on Monday.

Gusty wnw winds will continue on Saturday due to a strong
pressure gradient between the departing low over the canadian
maritimes and high pressure building across the ohio and
tennessee valleys. Gusts up to 40 kt will be possible in the
morning, but then begin to gradually subside through Saturday
night. High pressure builds to the south and west of the area
Sunday, then gives way to a strong cold front on Monday. There
are subtle timing differences, but consensus supports a late
morning into early afternoon passage. There is a chance of a
light post-frontal rain event, mainly in the afternoon, ending
along the coast by early evening. Upper trough at this time
looks to be too progressive for any phasing with a southern
branch shortwave trough that passes to the south. This will be
watched in subsequent days.

More importantly, an anomalously cold airmass moves into the
area Monday night into Tuesday. After highs in the 50s Sunday
and Monday, readings will struggle to get into the lower 40s on
Tuesday. Airmass will then gradually moderate through Thursday,
but remain dry.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Low pressure approaches from the south this eve, passes overhead
late tonight and away from the region fri.

Easterly winds increase thru 0-3z. Winds then decrease as the low
approaches, then tracks over the area. A high amount of variability
can be expected as the low passes. Winds become NW then wnw on fri
as the low exits. Speeds increase with gusts to around 30kt likely.

Low level wind shear is expected this evening for most coastal
terminals as a 40 to 50 kt jet moves into the area at 1-2 kft.

Rain, mainly light, will continue this aftn from kjfk-kswf and
points w. A heavier rain will overspread the entire region from the
s this eve. The rain will lighten late tngt as the low passes over
the area. A period of lifr is possible 8-13z INVOF the low.

Improvement toVFR aft 15z as the low pulls away.

Sct shra shsn possible aft 18z which could produce MVFR or lower.

Coverage and timing is too uncertain to include pcpn in the tafs
attm.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi45 min ENE 6 G 8.9 42°F 39°F1013.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi49 min E 12 G 14 44°F 41°F7 ft1012 hPa (-3.6)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi39 min E 16 G 19 43°F 42°F1011.3 hPa (-3.9)41°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi45 min E 13 G 17 42°F 40°F1014.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi45 min 48°F 42°F1011.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi45 min E 15 G 19 44°F 43°F1012.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi45 min E 20 G 26 47°F 1012.1 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi45 min E 16 G 21
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi45 min ESE 6 G 9.9 45°F 41°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi46 minENE 1010.00 miLight Rain46°F41°F83%1012.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi43 minENE 1310.00 miLight Rain46°F41°F83%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S12SE6S5SE4SE3E3SE5SE6E7E4E6E8E7E10E10E9E9E11E13E14
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1 day agoSW9S9SW5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW8SW10SW11SW12SW15SW15
G21
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2 days ago6NW4SW5SW5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7N4NW5CalmN4NW6Calm3NW4----N7
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Oak Beach, Great South Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:10 AM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:40 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.10.80.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.40.91.31.51.51.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.20.20.71.21.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.