Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:45PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 2:37 PM EDT (18:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:44AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1142 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..E winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Periods of light rain and drizzle. Brief heavy showers possible late with vsby locally 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt this evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning...then around 1 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of light rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less .
Thu..N winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon...then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less in the morning...then 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 1142 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will slowly move up along the eastern seaboard toward southern new england into Wednesday night...then move up into the canadian maritimes by the end of the week. A weakening frontal boundary will dissipate across the area on Friday...followed by another weak frontal boundary moving into the area on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree CDP, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 251621
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1221 pm edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will slowly move up along the eastern seaboard
through Wednesday night, then head northeast into the canadian
maritimes by the end of the week. A weakening frontal boundary
will dissipate across the area on Friday. Another weak frontal
boundary moving into the area Saturday into Saturday night will
stall nearby early next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
High pressure to the north and low pressure along the carolina
coast has set up a maritime easterly flow. Warm front associated
with the low will gradually work northward today. As the upper
level low moves north along the eastern seaboard, moisture and
lift will increase through the day.

Stronger isentropic lift and deeper moisture work up the east
coast ahead of the low late this morning and into the afternoon.

Rain and drizzle will be periodic in nature, with some
occasional lulls in activity, but model soundings do show
pockets of elevated h6-9 instability with MUCAPE 200-400 j/kg,
enough for some bands of brief locally heavy showers the first
lifting up into southern ct early this afternoon, then another
developing to the south and west mainly late. Mid level cap
should prevent thunder.

A fairly strong pressure gradient between the approaching low
and the high to the north has brought breezy easterly flow
through the day with gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures will be in
the 50s.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Wednesday night/
Low level jet and a stacked coastal low will provide good lift
tonight for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall.

Pw increases to near 200% of normal with values 1.50 inches.

Models have come into a little better agreement with placement
of heaviest qpf, but it is well known that QPF in models can be
erratic. A very moist air mass, slow moving stacked low, low
level jet, and elevated mid level instability as noted above
support around 0.50-0.75 inches of rain on average across the
area for the first half of the night. The low level jet will
shift to the east after 06z, which will focus the heaviest rain
across eastern long island and southern connecticut.

On Wednesday, the stacked low will be slowly moving south and
east of long island. Rain will continue across eastern long
island and southeastern connecticut, tapering off into the
afternoon. Due to moisture wrapping around the low, cannot rule
out light rain farther west as well.

The close proximity of the stacked low should keep low clouds
around through the day and possibly some patchy fog, so have
gone with the cooler high temperatures in the lower 60s.

It still appears that the entire CWA will fall short of flash flood
and headwater guidance flooding for this event. See the hydrology
section below for more details.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
A dissipating upper low lifts NE along the new england coast at
the onset of the period, otherwise a high amplitude upper ridge
will prevail along the east coast through early next week.

A series of weak frontal systems will converge upon the area,
the first on Friday, which likely dissipates across the area. A
backdoor cold front then may briefly drop south across the area
Saturday night with a confluent flow aloft and shortwave trough
moving over top the ridge across eastern canada. 00z ecmwf
support GFS with the backdoor cold front making it through, even
faster than the GFS on Saturday afternoon. Rain chances in both
cases are low with ridging aloft and a capping inversion in
place. Expect mainly showers, but an isolated thunderstorm is
not out of the question. Strong and/or severe convection is not
forecast at this time.

Front returns north as a warm front Sunday night into Monday
morning with a cold frontal passage Monday evening. There is the
potential for stronger convection along and ahead of the cold
front Monday.

Anomalous upper ridge off the east coast over the the weekend
into early next week will result in above normal temperatures
and muggy conditions, with readings generally in the 70s and
possibly the lower 80s, warmest across the interior. Conditions
will be cooler along the immediate coast. Sunday and Monday may
cool down a bit behind the backdoor cold front.

Aviation /16z Tuesday through Saturday/
Low pressure slowly moves up along the mid-atlantic coastline today
and tonight.

Generally expect ifr conditions, with lifr possible at times
through tonight. Intermittent rain will be locally moderate to
heavy at times today into tonight.

East/northeast winds prevail, with speeds in the 15 to 20 kt range.

Gusts will range 25 to 30 kt this afternoon with some decrease
tonight. Gusts should become less frequent overnight.

Llws is possible this evening with SE winds 45-50 kt at 2kft, mainly
east of nyc terminals.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi82 min ENE 18 G 25 55°F 55°F55°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 26 mi52 min E 14 G 18 49°F 2 ft48°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi49 min E 12 G 19 54°F 47°F1016.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi47 min ENE 21 G 27 48°F 47°F7 ft1014.5 hPa (-2.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi47 min ENE 25 G 29 49°F 48°F7 ft1015.2 hPa (-1.6)49°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi49 min NE 9.9 G 13 56°F 1018 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi49 min 56°F 50°F1015.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi49 min ENE 13 G 18 54°F 50°F1014.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi49 min NE 22 G 26 55°F 1015.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi49 min 55°F 52°F1015.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi52 min ENE 12 G 16 49°F 2 ft48°F
MHRN6 47 mi49 min NE 16 G 21
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi49 min NE 8 G 8.9 55°F 51°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi44 minENE 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast55°F53°F93%1017.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi41 minNE 12 G 222.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist55°F54°F96%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9--SE7SE7E6E4E6E6E8E4E9E10E8NE9NE10NE8NE11E12
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1 day agoS11S8SW9S11S11S11S7S6SW6SW5SW3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE4SE4SE7E6SE5
2 days agoNE4CalmNW3NW5NW5W4NW3N9N9N6N7N7N6N6N7N9N7N9N8NE8N9N73SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Beach, Great South Bay, New York
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Oak Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:36 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:55 AM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:17 PM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.20.1-0-00.10.40.60.80.80.80.60.40.20.1-0-0.100.30.60.80.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:46 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:57 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:59 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:18 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.1-0-0.10.10.611.31.41.31.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.100.511.41.61.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.