Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Amityville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:01PM Monday January 22, 2018 9:16 PM EST (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:17AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 723 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight, then becoming S 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of drizzle. Areas of fog. Slight chance of rain after midnight. Chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas building to 5 to 8 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas building to 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 723 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches from the south this evening then lifts north through the region late tonight and early Tuesday morning. A cold front then crosses the tri-state Tuesday afternoon and early evening, followed by a trough of low pressure pushing through the remainder of Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in from Wednesday through Friday, then slides offshore Friday night. A cold front approaches on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amityville, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230039
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
739 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front approaches from the south this evening then lifts
north through the region late tonight and early Tuesday morning.

A cold front then crosses the tri-state Tuesday afternoon and
early evening, followed by a trough of low pressure pushing
through the remainder of Tuesday night. High pressure then
builds in for the rest of the work week, followed by a frontal
system over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A deep layered ridge axis lifts to the NE tonight. With SW flow
aloft, e-se flow at the surface, and dry mid levels, expect
mainly areas of drizzle and fog into the overnight hours. As
low to mid level isentropic lift and saturation increases
overnight expect rain to develop from SW to NE after midnight.

For now do not expect anything other than locally dense fog,
mainly, if not entirely, during the overnight hours so will
address with special weather statements as appropriate.

Lows tonight should occur this evening, then temperatures should
slowly rise overnight in response to low level warm advection.

Lows should be from the mid 30s to around 40, except lower 40s
in the immediate nyc metro.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
As a warm front continues to push north tonight and into
Tuesday a deep moisture airmass along with precipitable water
values of 1 to 1.25" will set the stage for periods of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall, as a cold front approaches late
tonight and moves across the area Tuesday morning. The front is
forecast to move through fast, so the heavy rainfall at this
time doesn't seem to be a significant threat.

There will be some good instability ahead of the approaching cold
front. Will continue the mention for an isolated thunderstorms as
the cold front makes its way across the area. There is also the
potential for strong winds above the surface to mix down in any
thunderstorms. Regardless, a tight pressure gradient will lead to
strong winds across the area through the day but at the moment it
appears winds will be brief and sporadic enough to preclude a wind
advisory for now.

The front will pull offshore by Tuesday evening. Northwest winds
behind the front will usher in more seasonable temperatures. Tuesday
nights low will be in the low to mid 30s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Not much change in the 12z data regarding the long term. High pres
builds in from the W on wed, with wnw winds ushering in a colder
airmass. Deep mixing provides a high confidence in temps, so a blend
of the data was used. There could be a period of bkn-ovc aftn cu
which the model data is not picking up on attm, so an upgrade in
cloud cover is possible with subsequent updates.

With deep unidirectional flow, winds should keep the lowest lvls
mixed Wed ngt. Temps therefore not as cold as a pure MOS blend.

Still breezy on Thu but deep subsidence will produce a sunny day.

The superblend was used for temps.

Still in the cool regime Fri as return flow does not commence til
late in the day. The superblend again used for temps. Some mid clouds
may infiltrate the skies if the WAA aloft develops fast enough.

A warming trend on Sat as a frontal sys approaches. The GFS and
ecmwf have diverged on timing however, with the ECMWF now about 24
hrs slower than the gfs, bringing the cdfnt and bulk of the rain in
on mon. The fcst remains close to the more consistent timing of the
gfs, with pops focused on Sun and Sun ngt. Lower pops remain in
place for mon, but again this could change if the ECMWF becomes a
trend. The superblend was used for temps.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
A warm front just S of long island will push through late
tonight followed by a cold front Tue aftn.

Difficult forecast continues, especially for nyc and long
island terminals. Generally ifr lifr conds have moved in early
this eve with the exception of kjfk kewr who remainVFR. The
stratus is expected to move in here as well by 03z. There is
some indication in the guidance that conds sct out, mainly
nyc LI terminals between say 03z and 09z due to turbulent
mixing aloft. Have kept this idea in the forecast and will see
how it goes, although there is the possibility that it does not
occur. Otherwise, rain forecast to move in 09-13z. Any
improvement tomorrow is forecast to be gradual. Moderate to
heavy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the
area from daybreak through the afternoon with the approach of a
cold front.

E NE 5-10kt become light and vrb away from the coast overnight.

Winds veer to the SE then S late tonight into Tuesday morning
as warm front pushes north of the region. Llws compression
likely Tuesday with gusts up to 35 kt possible, strongest for
kisp kgon. Cold frontal passage with wind shift to west will
occur from mid to late afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 22 mi47 min ENE 4.1 G 8 38°F 34°F1021.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 25 mi87 min ENE 12 G 14 40°F 40°F1 ft1019.6 hPa (-0.6)40°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi87 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 45°F 42°F2 ft1020.4 hPa (-0.5)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi47 min 42°F 36°F1020.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 34 mi47 min ENE 8.9 G 13 39°F 35°F1020.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi47 min NE 9.9 G 11 40°F 1020.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi47 min E 9.9 G 15 1021.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi47 min 41°F 36°F1020 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi47 min NE 7 G 8.9

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY5 mi24 minENE 42.50 miFog/Mist42°F41°F96%1020.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi81 minENE 40.75 miFog/Mist43°F41°F93%1020.8 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi26 minNNE 77.00 miOvercast42°F39°F89%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3SE4NE3E3E3CalmE3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N4NE4NE3E4NE6E4SE5SE8E4E6
1 day agoW6W5SW4W6W3NW4W5W4NW4W4CalmCalmCalmN7N9NW4W35N7W3S3CalmS3Calm
2 days agoW4SW3SW3SW4SW5SW8W6SW7W10SW7SW10W10W13
G22
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Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:08 AM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:21 PM EST     1.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:25 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.110.90.70.50.20.10.10.20.40.811.11.110.80.50.30.1-000.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:22 AM EST     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:50 PM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:15 PM EST     0.86 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.30.10.30.40.70.90.50-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.30.50.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.