Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Massapequa, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:01PM Monday January 22, 2018 10:40 PM EST (03:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:17AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1002 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, then becoming S 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of drizzle and fog. Slight chance of rain, then a chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas building to 5 to 8 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas building to 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 1002 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front lifts north through the region overnight and early Tuesday morning. A cold front then crosses the tri-state Tuesday afternoon and early evening, followed by a trough of low pressure pushing through the remainder of Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in from Wednesday through Friday, then slides offshore Friday night. A cold front approaches on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Massapequa, NY
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location: 40.67, -73.47     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230326
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1026 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north through the region overnight and early
Tuesday morning. A cold front then crosses the tri-state
Tuesday afternoon and early evening, followed by a trough of low
pressure pushing through the remainder of Tuesday night. High
pressure then builds in for the rest of the work week, followed
by a frontal system over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Sw flow aloft overnight, coupled with e-se flow at the surface,
and dry mid levels, will produce areas of drizzle and fog.

Already seeing sporadic reports of visibilities down to 1 4 of a
mile, so have issued a special weather statement CWA wide for
locally dense fog through 9z. While currently not expecting
widespread dense fog, cannot completely rule out the
possibility. Will continue to monitor and issue a short fused
dense fog advisory if necessary.

As low to mid level isentropic lift and saturation increases
overnight expect rain to develop from SW to NE after midnight.

Should see some improvement in visibilities late tonight as you
get increased low level lift and some rain, both of which should
create enough mixing to raise visibilities.

Lows tonight should occur this evening, then temperatures should
slowly rise overnight in response to low level warm advection.

Lows should be from the mid 30s to around 40, except lower 40s
in the immediate nyc metro.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
As a warm front continues to push north tonight and into
Tuesday a deep moisture airmass along with precipitable water
values of 1 to 1.25" will set the stage for periods of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall, as a cold front approaches late
tonight and moves across the area Tuesday morning. The front is
forecast to move through fast, so the heavy rainfall at this
time doesn't seem to be a significant threat.

There will be some good instability ahead of the approaching cold
front. Will continue the mention for an isolated thunderstorms as
the cold front makes its way across the area. There is also the
potential for strong winds above the surface to mix down in any
thunderstorms. Regardless, a tight pressure gradient will lead to
strong winds across the area through the day but at the moment it
appears winds will be brief and sporadic enough to preclude a wind
advisory for now.

The front will pull offshore by Tuesday evening. Northwest winds
behind the front will usher in more seasonable temperatures. Tuesday
nights low will be in the low to mid 30s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Not much change in the 12z data regarding the long term. High pres
builds in from the W on wed, with wnw winds ushering in a colder
airmass. Deep mixing provides a high confidence in temps, so a blend
of the data was used. There could be a period of bkn-ovc aftn cu
which the model data is not picking up on attm, so an upgrade in
cloud cover is possible with subsequent updates.

With deep unidirectional flow, winds should keep the lowest lvls
mixed Wed ngt. Temps therefore not as cold as a pure MOS blend.

Still breezy on Thu but deep subsidence will produce a sunny day.

The superblend was used for temps.

Still in the cool regime Fri as return flow does not commence til
late in the day. The superblend again used for temps. Some mid clouds
may infiltrate the skies if the WAA aloft develops fast enough.

A warming trend on Sat as a frontal sys approaches. The GFS and
ecmwf have diverged on timing however, with the ECMWF now about 24
hrs slower than the gfs, bringing the cdfnt and bulk of the rain in
on mon. The fcst remains close to the more consistent timing of the
gfs, with pops focused on Sun and Sun ngt. Lower pops remain in
place for mon, but again this could change if the ECMWF becomes a
trend. The superblend was used for temps.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
A warm front just S of long island will push through late
tonight followed by a cold front Tue aftn.

Difficult forecast continues, especially for nyc and long
island terminals. Ifr lifr with locally vlifr conds prevail at
all terminals. Although the depth of the low cloud deck is all
of around 500 ft, am starting to have doubts that conds improve
for a couple of hours nyc LI overnight. Not completely out of
the question though with winds aloft increasing and dry air just
above this low cloud deck. Have moved the potential into a
tempo group since the improvement may not be for very long if it
occurs at all.

Otherwise, rain forecast to move in 09-13z. Any improvement
on Tue is forecast to be gradual and current forecast may even
be improving conds too early, especially in the morning.

Moderate to heavy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
impact the area from daybreak through the afternoon with the
approach of a cold front.

E NE 5-10kt become light and vrb away from the coast overnight.

Winds veer to the SE then S late tonight into Tue morning as
warm front pushes north of the region. Llws compression likely
tue with gusts up to 35 kt possible, strongest for kisp kgon.

Cold frontal passage with wind shift to west will occur from mid
to late afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Tuesday night into Wednesday Vfr. Wnw g20-25kt possible.

Thursday-Friday Vfr.

Saturday Showers possible with s-sw g20kt.

Marine
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Will issue a marine weather statement for patchy dense fog
overnight.

South to southwest flow will rapidly strengthen across the area
waters overnight, with at least small craft advisory (sca)
level winds developing by morning. There probably will be some
occasional gusts to 25 kt on the coastal ocean waters late
overnight as well. Depending on the strength of the inversion,
there is potential for strong low- level jet winds to mix to the
surface, with at least occasional gale- force winds on Tuesday.

Occasional gale force winds will also be possible in any
thunderstorms that can develop. Seas will rapidly build in
response to the strengthened flow, remaining elevated even as
the cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Winds may briefly
drop off as the front moves through, before rapidly
strengthening again following its passage. SCA level winds in
the 25 to 30 kt range are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night on
all waters, so have an SCA up accordingly.

A SCA will be needed on the ocean Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Winds will be marginal elsewhere. Winds and seas will then
creep up towards SCA levels again on Thursday as low pressure
deepens over the atlantic. Winds and seas should be below sca
levels on Friday, then SW flow increases over the weekend ahead
of a frontal system.

Hydrology
Total rainfall through Tuesday is expected to range from around
1 2 to 1 inch, with locally up to 2 inches possible in any
stronger convection. There is a small chance for localized
ponding of water in any areas receiving locally heavy rainfall
due to convection, but no significant hydrologic issues are
anticipated at this time.

No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated from Tuesday
night through early next weekend.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... Maloit fig jmc
near term... Maloit
short term... Fig
long term... Jmc
aviation... 24
marine... Maloit fig jmc
hydrology... Maloit fig jmc
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 18 mi41 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 36°F 34°F1020.2 hPa (-1.6)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi51 min ENE 9.7 G 9.7 40°F 40°F2 ft1018.4 hPa (-1.4)40°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 29 mi41 min 40°F 36°F1019.2 hPa (-1.8)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 32 mi41 min E 8 G 12 38°F 35°F1019.4 hPa (-1.7)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi41 min NE 11 G 12 38°F 1019.3 hPa (-1.7)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi51 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 45°F 42°F1 ft1019.2 hPa (-1.3)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi41 min 40°F 36°F1018.6 hPa (-1.7)
MHRN6 37 mi41 min ENE 7 G 9.9
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi47 min E 11 G 15 39°F 35°F1019.7 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY5 mi48 minE 40.13 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1019.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY16 mi50 minENE 57.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%1019.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi1.7 hrsENE 50.25 miFog43°F41°F93%1020.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi50 minNE 90.13 miFog37°F35°F93%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4NE3E3E3CalmE3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N4NE4NE3E4NE6E4SE5SE8E4E6E4E4
1 day agoSW4W6W3NW4W5W4NW4W4CalmCalmCalmN7N9NW4W35N7W3S3CalmS3CalmCalmS3
2 days agoSW3SW4SW5SW8W6SW7W10SW7SW10W10W13
G22
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Tide / Current Tables for Biltmore Shores, South Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Biltmore Shores
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Mon -- 12:50 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:04 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:49 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.210.70.40.20.10.10.30.711.31.31.31.10.80.50.2000.10.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:22 AM EST     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:50 PM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:15 PM EST     0.86 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.30.10.30.40.70.90.50-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.30.50.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.