Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wantagh, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:43PM Monday April 23, 2018 5:32 AM EDT (09:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 350 Am Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Wed..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 350 Am Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will drift off the coast today. Low pressure then approaches Tuesday into Tuesday night and then passes to the northeast Wednesday night. Another low pressure system may impact the region Friday or Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wantagh, NY
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location: 40.68, -73.52     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230904
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
504 am edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the northeast will drift offshore
today, and further over the atlantic on Tuesday. Low pressure
will affect the region Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

Another low pressure or frontal system may affect the region
Friday or Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
It was skc this mrng across the fcst area. A 1032 high was
centered over vt nh at 3am per msas. This high will drift
off the coast today. Light winds, gaining a sea breeze
component this aftn, and sunny skies can be expected. A blend of
the met mav was used, which takes areas W of the hudson river
close to 70.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The high will continue to slide ewd thru the period, allowing
low pres over the southeast to draw closer to the cwa. The
models have been consistent in holding off on pcpn until tue
eve, so pops have been scaled back during the day on tue. Main
challenge will be clouds, as the modeling suggests a dense
cirrus developing as early as tngt. Water vapor imagery supports
the supply of moisture, so clouds have been ramped up late tngt
and all of tue. Tue looks mainly ovc attm. This cloud shield
should keep temps from bottoming out like they did this mrng,
so the fcst has been warmed abv guidance. Of course, if clouds
don't increase as expected tngt, temps will verify lower than
fcst. With a lgt onshore flow, there could be some patchy fog.

The superblend was used for tue, with the increasing sely flow
limiting temps.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Models continue in good agreement with a large southern closed upper
low over the tennessee river valley Tuesday, opening and lifting
into the NE us through Wednesday in response to northern stream
shortwave energy moving into the upper midwest great lakes. At the
surface, resultant low pressure lifts towards the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, and then to the north Wed night thu. One
interesting feature to be watched, that is being picked up by the
operational models (very clearly in the nam), is development of a
sub-tropical wave within wcb convection off the SE coast Tuesday.

This features then rides north up the coast in the wcb and either
merges or swings around the primary low as it approaches the region
wed.

Overall, a soaking rain with breezy E SE winds is expected to
develop across the area late Tuesday night and continue into
Wednesday afternoon. Timing differences still exist on timing of
heaviest rain, during the late Tuesday night into Wed afternoon time
period. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm Wed morning into
afternoon along ahead of approaching warm front with weak elevated
instability and forcing from approaching shortwave energy and 55-65
kt SE llj. Most operational solutions are muted with the development
of a sub-tropical wave, keeping rainfall to a 1 2 to 1 inch event.

Meanwhile the NAM is denoting potential for a heavier rainfall with
a stronger wave and sub-tropical atlantic moisture inflow, resulting
in a 1 to 2 inch rainfall. This interaction will have to be
monitored over the next 24 to 36 hrs, as the NAM may be resolving a
convectively induced wave better than other operational guidance. In
any case, have increased QPF to 3 4 to 1 1 2 inches based on upward
trend in GEFS and SREF mean and mode, and to capture potential for
the stronger sub-tropical connection noted in the nam.

Interestingly, the operational GFS is a the bottom of the envelope
of QPF spread of GEFS members. Highest QPF amounts are favored
across nyc metro, NE nj, lower hudson valley and SW ct with
orographic lift of moist SE inflow. Otherwise, models in general
agreement with best forcing moisture move NE Wed afternoon into wed
eve, with lingering showers Wed night, a slower trend than 24 hrs
ago.

Thereafter, models still have notable spread in the evolution of the
above mentioned upper midwest great lakes trough, as its energy
splits N S during the mid to late week period. Differences exist in
the strength of the southern energy that splits off, and with the
amplification of the northern energy over the eastern great lakes
and northeast Wed night Thu as it phases with the initial southern
wave moving up the coast. This is further complicated by differences
in evolution of the next northern stream shortwave diving into the
central us for late week, that does a similar split. It appears the
evolution of the northern portion of this energy, and the
interaction (if any), with the southern energy that got left behind,
will be a key determinant in sensible weather for Fri sat. So a
complex forecast to say the least. At this point, it appears
there is potential for a progressive low pressure or frontal
system to affect the region during the Friday or Saturday time
period, but predictability on details remains low. Will continue
with low chance of showers in the forecast during this time to
denote the potential.

Temperatures during this time period will be seasonable, except a
few degrees below seasonable Wednesday with low pressure
affecting the region. In fact, if the more progressive less
amplified solutions are correct, Thursday into Saturday could be
slightly above seasonable, pushing 70 for nyc nj metro and
solidly in the 60s elsewhere.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
High pressure moves across the terminals through midday and then
moves offshore for the remainder of the TAF period.

Vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly
clear conditions through much of the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable initially, eventually becoming ne-e near 5 kt
this morning and then s-se 5-10 kt late this morning into this
afternoon.

Expect some variance of 1-3 hours at individual terminals with
the timing of the wind direction shifts. Winds become lighter
and more southerly tonight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi45 min Calm G 0 46°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi33 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 45°F 45°F1030.3 hPa (+0.4)42°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 26 mi45 min 46°F 46°F1030.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi45 min N 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 1030.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi51 min Calm G 1 45°F 50°F1031.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi45 min 43°F 48°F1030.2 hPa
MHRN6 34 mi45 min N 2.9 G 2.9
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi43 min WSW 9.7 G 12 47°F 43°F1 ft1030 hPa (+0.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi51 min N 1.9 G 2.9 41°F 46°F1030.1 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N11
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N20
G26
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N15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY7 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair39°F32°F76%1030.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY14 mi42 minSW 310.00 miFair43°F37°F80%1030.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi42 minNE 410.00 miFair46°F37°F71%1030.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY24 mi37 minN 410.00 miFair37°F30°F79%1030.3 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N3NE4N7NE74653SE3S13S11SW13SW15SW11SW7SW5W3W3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW4NW7N4NW9NW10
G17
W12
G16
NW12
G19
NW8NW8NW8
G16
NW6
G16
SW14SW12SW11SW5S4NW4N3NE4N5N4N5N6
2 days agoNW6
G17
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G21
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G23
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NW8
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G19
N9N7NW6NW5NW5NW4NW4NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Bellmore, Bellmore Creek, Long Island, New York
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Bellmore
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:17 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:31 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.31.82.12.22.11.71.30.90.60.30.10.20.61.11.61.921.81.51.10.80.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:19 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.90.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.200.20.60.90.70.2-0-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.