Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Babylon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:33PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:05 AM EST (08:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:35AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 907 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.gale warning in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Sun..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 907 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds over the waters overnight. A warm front will lift to the north on Saturday, then a strong cold front will approach Saturday night. The front will sweep eastward Sunday morning as strong low pressure passes to the north and high pressure builds toward the southeast states. High pres builds in for Tue and Wed.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Babylon, NY
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location: 40.69, -73.3     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180528
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1228 am est Sat nov 18 2017

High pressure builds over the region overnight into early
Saturday. A warm front will lift to the north later Saturday,
then a strong cold front will approach Saturday night, and sweep
sweep eastward Sunday morning as strong low pressure passes to
the north. A few weather disturbances are possible later next

Near term until 6 am this morning
Winds continue to diminish as high pressure builds over the
region under mostly clear to clear conditions. Will be ideal
radiational cooling, however, a few knots of wind will make for
a trick low temperature forecast. The temperature at kfok varied
from 35 to 26, and back up to 35 in a few hours as wind speeds
varied. The nyc metro will remain relatively warm as outlying
areas radiate. Minor changes to hourly trends and overnight

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Sunday
Main concern will be an intensifying low moving into the ohio
valley Sat morning, then across the lower great lakes Sat night
and into the st. Lawrence valley in Sunday. An associated warm
front will lift north of the area daytime sat, with some showers
moving into the area from nyc north west in the afternoon. The
pressure gradient between the departing high and the approaching
low will quickly tighten up, with s-sw winds gusting to 25-30
mph in most places, and as high as 35 mph across long island.

Main impacts ahead of and following a strong cold trailing the
low expected Sat night into Sunday, with s-sw winds increasing
further and a band of moderate to heavy showers sweeping across
with the front overnight. Models show fairly good low level
mixing with MAX boundary layer winds from 40-55 kt, highest
across eastern long island and SE coastal ct. Do not think the
full complement of these winds will mix down to the surface, but
gusts up to 35 mph are likely inland, 40-45 mph in nyc metro
and along most of the coastline, and 50-55 mph across eastern
long island. Confidence level in seeing winds over 60 mph is not
quite high enough to warrant a high wind watch for eastern
coastal sections, but this could change with later forecasts.

Will have to watch band of moderate to heavy showers with the
cold front itself for best low level momentum transfer on the
western fringe of the low level jet.

Winds could abate somewhat right after cold fropa, then should
pick up from mid morning into the afternoon after the passage of
a strong mid level vort max, via strong downward momentum
transfer of w-nw 40-kt h9 winds to the surface, with gusts up to
or just over 45 mph likely during this time frame.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
A broad area of high pressure will build into the region Monday
and Tuesday. This will produce fair weather. Superblend was
used for temperatures except for Monday night, where mex was
used to better capture radiational cooling.

Wednesday remains a bit of a question. A cold front will be
approaching from the west. In addition, there remains the
suggestion that some semblance of a coastal low will develop.

The 12z GFS is way off the southeast coast and not a factor. The
12z ECMWF is trending west and now produces a solid swath of
rain across the area. The forecast has been trended towards the
ecmwf, with low chances for precipitation included for all
areas. The rain would help to suppress high temperatures as
well. The cooler superblend was used as a result.

The cold front comes through Wednesday night. The ECMWF is much
different than the gfs, which pours the cold air into the
region. The ECMWF keeps the coldest air locked to the north of
the area, most likely due to the dynamics of the strengthening
offshore low. A blend of the models was used, however depending
on how the pattern ultimately develops, thanksgiving
temperatures could end up being roughly plus or minus 5 degrees
from the current forecast for highs. All solutions are dry for
the day however, followed by a continuation of the dry weather
on Friday.

The GFS does spin up a low along the subtropical jet and tracks
it east of the area on Friday. The ECMWF spins up something
similar on Saturday. This feature will need to be watched for
any westward trend.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure slides east of the region today, with a low pressure
system approaching from the west.

Vfr through this morning, with increasing potential for rain showers
and MVFR or lower conds developing late today into tonight.

Southerly winds increase this morning into this afternoon. SW winds
15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt likely for coastal terminals
late today into this evening.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Late Saturday night MVFR or lower conditions in -shra. Llws
possible for eastern terminals at night due to SW flow 40-50 kt at 2
kft agl. S-sw winds g25-35kt and occasionally higher for coastal
terminals. Low prob for a band of +shra and isolated thunder.

Sunday Conditions gradually improve toVFR with showers ending by
afternoon. Strong NW windshift Sunday morning, with NW winds g30-
40kt through the day. Gusts diminish to 25-30 kt Sunday evening.

Monday Vfr. W-nw winds g20-30kt. Gusts diminish gradually at

Tuesday MainlyVFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night with
showers. SW winds g15-20kt.

Wednesday MVFR possible with showers. W-nw winds g15-20kt.

Winds and seas have diminished across the waters east of
moriches inlet and cancelled the advisory.

Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through the
overnight with winds and seas increasing Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front.

A storm watch has been issued for the eastern ocean waters for
sat night into early Sunday morning, for frequent gusts up to 50
kt in s-sw flow ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Gale
warnings have been issued elsewhere, beginning Sat afternoon on
the western ocean waters, and elsewhere Sat evening, with s-sw
winds increasing to 40-45 kt Sat night. W-nw gales should
continue after the cold frontal passage into at least Sunday
afternoon, and possibly into Sunday night especially on the

Sca conds will follow into mon, and are still possible mainly
on the ocean into tue. Conditions may improve to below advy
criteria on wed.

A band of moderate to locally heavy showers with a strong cold
frontal passage late Sat night should cause no more than
local nuisance impacts.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels will approach minor flood thresholds with sat
morning high tide, but are expected to remain just below.

Storm surge guidance for Sunday morning high tide may to be on
the low side given the strength of southerly winds expected sat
night into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. But typically,
s SW winds are not conducive to building surge.

There is a low probability of a surge of 1-2 ft Sunday morning.

If these surge levels develop, minor coastal impacts in a
strong SW W flow would be felt mainly across eastern portions of
the great south bay into moriches bay. Elsewhere any impacts
would be brief and localized.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm est Sunday for

Storm watch from this evening through Sunday morning for

Gale warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est this evening
for anz350-353.

Gale warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est Sunday for

Synopsis... Jmc goodman
near term... Goodman 19
short term... Goodman
long term... Jmc
aviation... Nv
marine... Jmc goodman 19
hydrology... Jmc goodman
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi65 min NNW 5.8 G 5.8 38°F 46°F26°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi76 min N 1.9 G 3.9 39°F 25°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 26 mi35 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 39°F 20°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi75 min NW 7.8 G 12 44°F 57°F2 ft1017.1 hPa (-0.6)24°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi75 min WNW 5.8 G 9.7 46°F 58°F2 ft1017.8 hPa (+0.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 46 mi155 min WNW 9.7 G 16 42°F 2 ft

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY6 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair30°F21°F69%1017.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi69 minENE 310.00 miFair29°F21°F72%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW10
1 day agoS11S11S13S13S14W8W10W7W10W10W9W15
2 days agoN9N6NE6N3N6NE10NE8E66SE5SE7S8SE7E8E5E5E4E5E5E4SE8SE8SE6S11

Tide / Current Tables for Babylon, Long Island, New York
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Sat -- 03:56 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:36 AM EST     0.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:30 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:55 PM EST     0.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
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Sat -- 02:37 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EST     0.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:11 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:30 PM EST     0.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.