Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:00PM Monday October 23, 2017 2:11 AM EDT (06:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 8:45PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1040 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday evening...
Overnight..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Areas of drizzle. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers with areas of drizzle in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1040 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the region will slowly shift east through Monday. A cold front approaches from the west Monday night, slowly crossing the waters Tuesday into Wednesday before moving east of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Point, NY
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location: 40.72, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230545
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
145 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure pulls away from the region to the east through
Monday. A slow moving frontal system approaches Monday night,
impacting the region Tuesday into Wednesday with strong winds
gusts and potentially heavy rain. This frontal system slowly
moves east Wednesday into Wednesday night. An upper level
disturbance passes Thursday before high pressure returns for the
end of the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Adjustments made to temperatures, dewpoints, cloud coverage and
min temperatures to better correlate to current trends. Patchy
fog is developing across parts of eastern long island and
southeast connecticut with more fog development expected
overnight. Moistening under a subsidence inversion should allow
for patchy stratus and fog development overnight. After
radiational cooling across far outlying areas, where stratus
develops would stabilize or raise temps late tonight into early
mon morning. Lows generally in the 40s across far outlying
areas, 50s coast, to around 60 for nyc metro (close to normal
highs for this time of year).

Strong western atlantic upper ridging will remain in control. At the
surface, high pressure slowly drifts east of the new england coast
with an increasingly moist S SE flow.

Short term 6 am this morning through Tuesday night
Models in good agreement with strong western atlantic ridging slowly
shifting offshore, as vigorous pac shortwave jet energy digs through
the central us Monday and all the way to the gulf coast by Tuesday
night wed. The resultant -3 to 4 std deep eastern us longwave trough
will then tilt towards the NE us for midweek.

Its associated frontal system will approach the region Monday night,
and then crawl across the region Tue into Wed in the longitudinally
oriented steering flow. Trend with this system has been slower based
on the upper pattern and dprog dt.

Moisture remains relatively shallow on Monday afternoon into Monday
night, with lighter rain shower activity, as well as stratus drizzle
development. Moisture and forcing increases Tuesday as the frontal
system approaches, presenting the following potential hazards
Tuesday into Wednesday:
heavy rain: the slow movement of the front, deep lift (potentially
right rear of 150+ kt jet streak), weak instability, and
interaction with an increasingly moist and tropical airmass (+3
to 4 std) signal potential for multiple bands of heavy rain as
weak waves lift north along the front. Lower resolution
ensembles continue to range between 1 1 2 to 3 inches of rain
tue thru wed. Higher res operational nam GFS and sbuwrf models
indicating potential for localized swaths of 3-4 inches, much of
which falls in a 6 hr period. This looks to be a credible
threat based on synoptic pattern, but location timing is very
much uncertain based on front and frontal wave timing and
location. See hydrology section for associated flooding threat.

Strong winds: the other potential hazard is for strong winds during
the Tue into Tue night period as a 50-60 kt 950 hpa LLJ moves
overhead Tue afternoon into Tue night. Nam GFS bufkit soundings
indicating a 12-15 hr period of southerly winds gusts of 30 to 40
mph, with potential for any low topped convective line S ahead of
the cold front being able to drag down localized 45-55 mph wind
gusts to the surface.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
A deepening negative tilting trough will move into the region
Wednesday through Wednesday night. A stalled cold front in the
region Wednesday into Wednesday night will shift slowly eastward as
a wave of low pressure travels northeastward along it late Wednesday
night into Thursday, allowing the front to move across late
Wednesday night.

The trough axis moves across Thursday and well northeast of the
region Thursday night. The front moves slowly farther east of the
region Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure then moves in on
Friday and quickly GOES offshore, shifting eastward heading into the
start of next weekend before another frontal system approaches for
next Sunday.

Thunderstorms chances will be slight Wednesday morning for eastern
sections of the region, highest omega and elevated instability will
be shifting from SE ct and eastern long island to east of the region
later Wednesday morning. Rain showers could still be heavy at times
Wednesday morning. The rain showers will linger the whole day across
much of the region and even into the night, but that will be mainly
for long island and southern ct. Winds will be trending down as the
frontal zone will be right across the region with the pressure
gradient being rather diffuse and weak.

Rain shower chances continue into Thursday behind the cold front but
coverage and probabilities will be lower than before as westerly
flow will promote more dry conditions. The factors still favoring a
chance of showers though will be the cold pool aloft and mid level
omega associated with the upper level trough axis moving across.

Drier low level conditions will keep showers light without much qpf.

Dry weather will then return Thursday night through Saturday as
upper level ridging becomes strong as it quickly moves offshore. The
surface high pressure area quickly moves offshore as well and will
not be that strong, but should keep the dry weather along with
another warming trend with SW flow increasing in the atmospheric
column. A chance of showers returns for next Sunday with the
approach of the next frontal system.

Temperatures overall will continue to average at least few degrees
above normal for the rest of the week.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
High pressure moves east of the area overnight and Monday. A
slow moving cold front approaches Monday night.

Vfr initially. Patchy fog and stratus is expected to develop,
especially outside nyc terminals late tonight into Monday
morning. As such, MVFR or ifr ceilings vsbys cannot be ruled
out. Already seeing fog develop over eastern long island.

During the late morning and afternoon hours, generallyVFR
conditions are anticipated, but patchy MVFR ceilings are
possible. An isolated shower or patchy drizzle is also a
possibility during the day Monday. Showers become more
widespread from west to east late Monday night into Tuesday
morning with MVFR ifr cigs.

Light SE winds tonight remain SE and increase Monday. Speeds of
5 to 10 kt after 13-14z increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the
afternoon. A late day gust or two to 20 kt is possible,
especially near the coast (nyc and LI terminals). Wind increase
and gust Monday night to around 20kt.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Friday
Mon night-tue Potential period of S SE g30-40 kt with llws
ssw 45-55kt@2kft for coastal terminals. MVFR ifr shra continues
with low prob sparse tsra tue.

Tue night-wed Ifr possibly continues in shra Tue night, low
prob sparse tsra early evening, improving to MVFR and possibly
vfr by late wed.

Wed night-thu Vfr, with iso-sct MVFR in shra.

Fri Vfr.

Marine
Quiet conditions on all waters expected through Monday as high
pressure over the area slowly shifts east. The pressure gradient
will begin to tighten Monday night as low pressure strengthens
over the great lakes.

Sca conds are expected to develop Mon night with the potential for
marginal gale force gusts Tue into Tue night on all waters. High
seas are expected to develop N the ocean. Will hold of on 4-5th
period gale watch... Based on marginal potential and perhaps
more convectively correlated. Winds subside late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning int the wake of the frontal system.

Sca conditions will still be probable across all ocean and eastern
waters Wednesday morning due to both winds and for the ocean, the
high seas as well. For Wednesday afternoon and thereafter, sca
conditions will linger on the ocean mainly due to the high seas.

The non-ocean waters are forecast to have below SCA conditions.

Hydrology
A widespread 1 1 2 to 3 inches of rain is likely Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, with locally 3 to 4 inches. Concern is that
much of this rain could fall in a 6 hr period in slow moving
and or training bands of low topped convection heavy rain, but
the predictability on location of where this occurs is low.

Despite antecedent dry conditions, these potential rainfall rates
present an areawide potential for minor urban and poor drainage,
with a localized threat for flash flooding. In addition, if the
heavier rain amounts occur over northeastern new jersey and the
lower hudson valley, rapid rises in flashy small streams and minor
flood impacts to adjacent areas would be plausible.

Heavy rain threat diminishes Wednesday afternoon, with drying
conditions expected Thursday night through Saturday.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for anz330-
335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
Tuesday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jm nv
near term... Jm nv
short term... Nv
long term... Tongue
aviation... Bc
marine... Jm nv
hydrology... Jm nv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 5 mi56 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 62°F63°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi41 min N 2.9 G 4.1 54°F 65°F1027.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi81 min SSE 9.7 G 12 64°F 64°F2 ft1028.5 hPa (-0.5)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 35 mi82 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 60°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi41 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 55°F 66°F1028.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi41 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 62°F 59°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi41 min S 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 66°F1028.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi81 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 65°F2 ft1027.6 hPa (-0.4)62°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi15 minN 09.00 miFair54°F54°F100%1028.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi15 minN 010.00 miFair52°F50°F93%1028.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi18 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist44°F41°F89%1028.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi18 minN 09.00 miFair53°F52°F96%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmS5S6S8S7S6S7S6E3E3CalmSE3SE3CalmCalm
1 day agoNW4NW3NW5NW5CalmCalmCalmN3NW6CalmW4S7S6S8SW8SW6S4SW4SW3W3SW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW7W5NW3W4W5W5NW7NW8NW10
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W12NW10W9NW6CalmCalmN6N3NW3SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:41 AM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:00 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.11.11.10.90.60.50.30.20.30.50.81.11.21.31.21.10.80.60.40.20.20.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:44 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.10.90.70.50.30.30.40.60.91.21.41.41.31.10.80.60.40.30.20.40.70.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.