Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:08PM Saturday March 23, 2019 12:11 AM EDT (04:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 8:39AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1159 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through Saturday afternoon...
.low water advisory in effect from 3 am to 10 am edt Saturday...
Rest of tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers late this evening. Slight chance of snow showers with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1159 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes overnight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The high moves to the south on Sunday into Sunday night, followed by a cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure then builds in through the mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Point, NY
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location: 40.72, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230358
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1158 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes
tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The
high moves to the south on Sunday into Sunday night, followed by a
cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure then builds in
through the late week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Forecast is mainly on track. Cloud cover has increased with
cyclonic flow as the upper low begins to pull away.

With temps in the mid upper 30s and dew points in the lower to
mid 30s initially, light rain is falling in SRN ct. Thermal
profiles will cool resulting in liquid pcpn to become frozen.

While most of the forecast area won't see any accumulation, some
locations could see a coating, and portions of SE ct could see
around an inch.

Otherwise, winds remain the main story. W-nw winds will
generally gust around 35-40 mph due to the combination of caa
and a strong pressure gradient on the backside of departing low
pressure. There could be times of peak gusts of up to 45 mph,
but expecting to remain below wind advsy. Lows tonight are
expected to be near or a few degrees below freezing.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Winds will continue to gust from 35-40 mph, but stay below wind
advisory criteria, through Sat afternoon and then lowering
overnight to 15-20 mph. Winds should be NW through the period.

Temperatures should top out near 50 and again be near freezing
sat night. Should be dry.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pres will allow for a sunny start to the day on sun. With waa
aloft developing, increasing mid and high clouds can be expected for
the rest of the day. The nbm was used for temps, with readings at or
slightly abv average.

The models show a bit of uncertainty wrt the cold frontal passage on
mon. The front is timed to come thru early mon. The GFS appears to
be slightly faster than the ecmwf. The main challenge ATTM is
whether a wave developing along the front will bring a round of post
frontal pcpn to the area. This could fall as snow if it does occur.

The GFS is more robust with this probability, with the ECMWF keeping
the activity S of the cwa. The gem is a bit closer to the gfs.

Complicating factor is that boundary layer temps may not cool
sufficiently for a complete changeover to snow. A blend of the model
data was used, leaning on a warmer overall soln and little to no
snow, based on the wave uncertainty and temp uncertainty combined.

It looks dry Tue into Thu with a low 1030s high building into the
area. During this time of year, it should lead to some large diurnal
temp swings. The nbm was generally used for temps, although the
numbers were lowered Tue ngt with better radiational cooling
expected.

Probably dry for the rest of Thu thru fri. The models produce some
spotty pcpn in the WAA regime ahead of the next sys. With a dry
airmass in place, the official fcst was kept dry. The nbm was used
for temps, with a warming trend likely.

Aviation 04z Saturday through Wednesday
Deep low pressure tracks along the northern maine coast and into
the canadian maritimes overnight. The low gradually weakens
Saturday while tracking through the canadian maritimes.

Gusty wnw winds, around 310 true, remain through the taf
forecast. The highest winds and gusts will be overnight into
early Saturday morning. Winds and gusts then gradually diminish
through the late morning and the afternoon.

Scattered showers may linger into the overnight at
kswf khpn kbdr kgon could mix with or change to snow. A period
of light snow is possible at kgon overnight with reduced
visibility.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night Vfr. NW winds g20-30kt will gradually
diminish by early evening.

Sunday Vfr.

Monday MVFR or lower with light rain, with a cold frontal
passage.

Tuesday and Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
Forecast is on track.

Low water levels expected along the near shore, including the
long island sound and area bays tonight at the times of low
tide. Low tides will generally be around 7-10z for the south
shores, and 12-14z for areas along the long island sound. Expect
tidal departures around 2 ft below normal.

Gale force gusts expected on the waters overnight, and
continuing into Saturday. Winds will remain gusty late
Saturday, but should continue a gradual weakening trend into
Saturday night. Ocean seas will remain elevated well above 5 ft
through Saturday.

Conditions will be close to SCA lvls on the ocean sun,
otherwise winds and seas blw criteria elsewhere. Winds and seas
close to SCA lvls on the ocean Mon and Tue with a cfp and wave
of low pres. Conditions improve Wed and Thu with high pres
building in.

Hydrology
No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through Friday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Low water advisory from 3 am to 10 am edt Saturday for anz330-
335-338-340-345.

Gale warning until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Pw 99
short term... 99
long term... 12
aviation... Met
marine... Pw 99
hydrology... Jmc 99
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi41 min 40°F 40°F996 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi81 min W 25 G 31 42°F 41°F7 ft998.3 hPa (+1.4)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi41 min 41°F 42°F996.1 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi41 min 41°F 40°F1000.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi31 min W 23 G 31 41°F 42°F1000.1 hPa33°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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E14
G22
NE9
G12
NE11
G19
NE6
G16
NE8
G14
NE11
G14
NE12
G17
NE9
G14
N7
G13
N7
G11
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G21
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G30
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NE1
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NE3
E5
G8
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G11
E6
G10
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G11
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G12
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G20
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N2
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SE2
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SW7
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G10
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G11
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G12
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G16
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G13
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G11
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G7
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E1

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi15 minW 24 G 3510.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy40°F28°F63%997.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi15 minWNW 20 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy41°F27°F57%997.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi18 minW 21 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Breezy42°F27°F55%996.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi18 minNW 17 G 2910.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F26°F58%998.5 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE15
G26
NE16
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E18
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G25
NE14NE10NE12
G19
N15
G21
N12N15
G22
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NW17W12
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G20
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G28
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G37
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G34
W16
G28
W15
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G28
W9
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1 day agoE3E3E6E7E5E6E9SE12SE13SE14
G19
E11E11E13E16
G21
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E14
G24
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E13E10E14
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--E15
G23
E14
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW8SW10SW12
G19
SW14
G20
SW11
G21
S12S10S10S10SE8SE7SE6SE5E3

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.