Tuesday, December11, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:26PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 12:38 PM EST (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 9:24PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 945 Am Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming W this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries and sprinkles in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries in the evening.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 945 Am Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure and associated cold front over the great lakes approach the area today and the cold front moves through tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north for Wednesday. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Point, NY
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location: 40.72, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 111547
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1047 am est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure and associated cold front over the great
lakes approach the area today and the cold front moves through
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north for
Wednesday. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A
frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the
area over the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast remains on track with only minor changes made to
reflect current conditions with temperatures, dewpoints, and
cloud coverage. Light and variable winds this morning will
become SW this afternoon. Some more clouds along parts of the
coast this morning but overall expecting these to decrease by
late morning into afternoon leaving mostly sunny conditions for
most places.

Tranquil weather continues as high pressure over the area
weakens somewhat, allowing a weakening area of low pressure over
the great lakes and its associated cold front to approach the
area. Associated upper level shortwave also approaches. These
features will remain to our west through today. Highs today will
be similar to Monday, if not slightly cooler with a range from
mostly 36 to 40 degrees.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
The low pressure will continue to weaken as it approaches the
area tonight, in part due to its location relative to the upper
level shortwave that is approaching. Convergence aloft on the
western side of the shortwave will aid in the weakening of the
surface low. Therefore, dry conditions are expected tonight and
Wednesday. However, clouds will increase tonight mainly for
areas north and west of the new york city metro area, in
response to the approach of these features as well as the weak
cold front. As the front moves through, a wind shift from the
southwest to the west, then northwest is expected. Lows tonight
will not be as cold as the previous night thanks to the clouds
and more in the way of wind, especially for the twin forks of
long island.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Previous long term forecast seems quite reasonable. Of note, latest
operational ECMWF progs southern stream closed low well to the south
later this weekend, which would result in high pressure building and
dry conditions beginning as early as Saturday afternoon.

As previously noted, complex interaction between multiple streams
and pacific energy will make for a challenging forecast with respect
to the timing, placement and intensity of a frontal system that will
impact the area for the upcoming weekend. Thermally, guidance is all
in good agreement that whatever scenario pans out it should be an
all rain event. Differences arise amongst the global models due to
wavelength spacing between pacific energy moving into the west coast
at the end of the week and an upper low over the lower mississippi
valley. In addition, a northern stream shortwave passing to the
north across eastern canada poses some influence as well. Rain from
this system will work into the area late Friday and continue into
Saturday. The overall evolution and timing of this system will also
dictate how much of a player it could be on Sunday, but emphasis at
this time is on the first half of the weekend. As such, no big
changes to the previous forecast.

Prior to the weekend system, warm advection ahead of another
shortwave trough may produce flurries on Thursday. This feature
though dampens out in the building ridge ahead of the aforementioned
storm system. Temperatures remain below normal through Thursday.

Warm advection then ensues Thursday night through Saturday as
temperatures return to above normal values. Cold advection on the
backside of the departing low Sunday into Monday will bring
temperatures back to seasonable.

Aviation 16z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure will gradually weaken over the area during the day
before a cold front crosses the region overnight.

Vfr through the TAF period. Some scattered to perhaps at times
broken clouds around 3000 ft are possible after 00z.

Winds will remain light and variable through the morning before
returning out of the south-southwest during the afternoon.

Winds then slowly turn to the northwest tonight in response to
the cold front.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 5 mi38 min Calm G 0 41°F 38°F27°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi44 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 44°F1018.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi48 min N 7.8 G 12 40°F 48°F4 ft1018.3 hPa (-1.8)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi53 min ESE 3.9 G 7.8 35°F 46°F1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 35 mi53 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 37°F 1 ft28°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi38 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 35°F 45°F1019.4 hPa (-2.2)
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi68 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 42°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi38 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 42°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi28 min N 1.9 G 5.8 38°F 46°F1018.5 hPa29°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi42 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F26°F62%1018.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi42 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F27°F65%1018.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi45 minVar 510.00 miFair40°F28°F63%1019 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi45 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F24°F57%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13N8
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N7N6CalmCalmCalmN4N5NE4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmNE6E6E4Calm
1 day agoS5SW5S5SW4CalmSW3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN5N3N4N7N7N11N10N6N4N16
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2 days agoNW13NW11NW6NW8W6NW4NW6W5CalmSW4SW4W5CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.