Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:04 AM EDT (14:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:11AMMoonset 6:48PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 736 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby locally 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby locally 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms, especially after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 736 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will slide across today, followed by a warm front passing through tonight. An upper level disturbance will approach on Friday. A series of fronts will then move across into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Point, NY
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location: 40.72, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221134
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
734 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will slide across today, followed by a warm
front passing through tonight. An upper level disturbance will
approach on Friday. A series of fronts will then move across
the area through the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast is on track. Only minor adjustments needed to t TD and
sky this morning.

Weak high pressure will slide across, providing a mostly sunny
day today, though there could be an increase in high and mid
level clouds late as a mid level vort MAX spills over the upper
ridge to the west. Deep mixing under mostly sunny skies with h8
temps 13-14c should result in another warm day, with temps in
the lower mid 80s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the eastern suffolk ocean beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
A warm front passing through tonight could produce an isolated
shower late tonight, with the better chances across SE ct as
isentropic lift with the front strengthens a little. Some hi-res
guidance indicates potential for some low stratus and or patchy
fog late as well. Low temps should range from the mid 60s
across easternmost long island ct, to the lower 70s in nyc
metro.

A lead mid level trough well in advance of any remnants of
tropical storm cindy will be approaching on Friday, accompanied
by a substantial increase in low level moisture in the morning,
with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Best forcing for any convection
should arrive late morning or early afternoon, and while
instability appears meager, with CAPE 500 j kg or less, winds
aloft may make up for this and lead to a few strong tstms,
especially from nyc metro north west. Had been concerned
initially about a potential tropical predecessor rainfall event
with the area on the poleward side of an upper jet streak
approaching from the west, but think this potential will be
greater to the west at least through daytime Friday.

Temps will only be a tad less warm than those fcst for today,
with upper 70s to mid 80s expected.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Nwp is in agreement that a broad upper level trough will remain
east of the rockies through much of the forecast period. The
trough begins to sharpen early next week, but there are
differences as to when the trough axis pushes east.

Could see some heavy rainfall Fri night into Sat if the stronger
nam 50-60 kt LLJ verifies. GFS is much weaker, around 30 kt,
and ec is around 40 kt. Increasing theta-e advection and an
approaching short wave pre-frontal trough should support rain
moving in during the evening, generally west of the city,
although may be too aggressive with likely pop and it may hold
off until after midnight. Pw should increase to 2+ inches fri
night into Sat as deep tropical moisture advects into the
area. There appears to be enough elevated instability for some
non-severe tstms, which could also aid in heavy rainfall
potential.

Rain continues Sat morning as the remnants of TS cindy are
forecast to ride along an approaching cold front. The front will
be slow to move through, but the heavy rain threat should push
east during the aftn.

Weak ridging then builds in into Monday providing dry and
seasonable weather.

The 00z ec has started to waver from other guidance on the
progression of the upper trough over the eastern us early next
week. After a dry cold frontal passage Sun night, another will
approach on Mon with the potential for aftn eve convection. Will
need to monitor trends for the rest of the forecast period as a
slower trough progression could keep unsettled weather into the
middle of the week. Current forecast reflects trof axis moving
through on Tue with a chc for showers. Have kept thunder out due
to limited instability.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Weak high pressure builds over the area today. A warm front crosses
tonight.

Vfr through the evening push. Potential for MVFR br hz development
late tonight for nyc metro and interior terminals. Low prob of ifr
conditions in stratus fog for eastern terminals towards daybreak.

Scattered shower tsra development possible for morning push.

Light and variable flow this morning likely gives way to late
morning afternoon sea breeze development at coastal terminals. A
ne wind likely at klga this morning giving way to afternoon s
sea breeze. Kewr may waver between SE seabreeze and SW winds
this afternoon. Winds becoming light S SW tonight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 5 mi64 min Calm G 0 74°F 75°F59°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi46 min S 6 G 7 70°F 1016.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi74 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 69°F 68°F3 ft1016.5 hPa (+1.4)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 35 mi49 min E 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 60°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi46 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 73°F 69°F1017 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi49 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 57°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi46 min Calm G 0 67°F 65°F1016.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 45 mi74 min ENE 3.9 G 3.9 67°F 65°F2 ft1016.8 hPa (+1.3)62°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi68 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds75°F55°F52%1016.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi68 minN 510.00 miFair75°F59°F58%1017 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi71 minN 910.00 miFair74°F52°F46%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12NW8SW10SW13SW10SW10SW13
G19
SW12SW10SW4SW10SW6SW8SW5SW4CalmCalmN3CalmN5N4CalmN8N5
1 day agoSW7SW13SW13
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SW12SW8SW9SW7SW5SW7SW5SW7SW6SW6SW6SW4CalmSW6SW6SW9
2 days agoSW17
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SW7SW7SW8SW10SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:24 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.60.30-0.1-0.10.10.50.91.21.31.20.90.60.2-0-0.2-0.20.10.511.41.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:45 AM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:08 PM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30-0.1-0.10.20.611.31.41.20.90.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.20.10.61.11.51.71.61.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.