Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:43 PM EDT (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 214 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft. Chance of showers...then showers likely after midnight.
ANZ300 214 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A return of weak high pressure this afternoon will be followed by a weakening cold front from the northwest tonight. This then dissipates across the area Friday. Another cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Saturday...then passes through Saturday evening...followed by high pressure building from the northwest on Sunday. A warm front will approach Sunday night and lift north on Monday...followed by a trailing cold front late Monday into Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 271809
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
209 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure passes to the east today, while a dissipating
cold front approaches from the ohio valley. The front washes
out across the area on Friday. A cold front approaches Saturday
and pushes south of the area Saturday night. This front then
moves back toward the area as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday with the associated cold front moving through Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Some gradual improvement continues across the region with fog
becoming more patchy and less dense over the waters but still
across most of the eastern waters. Temperatures are warming into
well into the 60s for most locations except extreme eastern long
island and SE connecticut as clouds lift higher and low levels
dry out. Temperatures and dewpoints remain within a few degrees
comparing forecast and observed values.

The 12z okx sounding confirms the low level subsidence inversion
and with the southerly flow, is helping to keep low level
moisture in place.

Some more breaks in the clouds is forecast this afternoon. It
will be considerably warmer today, with highs in the lower 60s
along the immediate coast, to the lower 70s from nyc north and
west with more of a south to southwest flow.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday/
Upper level ridge passes to the east this evening as a short
wave trough pivots NE across the ohio valley. The latter of
which will send a dissipating cold front into the area toward
daybreak. Frontal forcing is weak with the mid level short wave
the main source of lift as the front moves into the area. There
is also weak elevated instability with a small chance of a
thunderstorm late tonight into Friday morning. Rainfall amounts
will generally be less than a tenth of inch, but isolated
higher amounts are possible with any stronger convection.

In addition, low-level warm advection and a s/se flow tonight
will likely result in low clouds, drizzle, and fog ahead of the
cold front.

Conditions clear out from west to east by late Friday morning
with temperatures rising into the 70s just inland from the
coast, and a warm as the lower 80s north and west of nyc. Winds
become SW in the morning with seabreeze development possible in
the afternoon. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above
normal.

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/
Bermuda type high pressure will set up over the north central
atlantic Friday night into Saturday. This will set up a favorable
flow for warm temperatures, even across coastal areas, as winds
shift to the southwest. High temperatures on Saturday will reach the
lower to middle 80s away from the coast, lower to middle 70s along
the coast, and upper 60s at the immediate coast. This will also mean
a noticeable increase in the humidity levels as dew points rise into
the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area.

Surface cold front approaches the area from the northwest on
Saturday, pushing south of the region Saturday night. This will mean
temperatures and dew points drop under cold air advection as winds
shift to the north after the cold frontal passage. Zonal flow aloft
will be replaced by upper level which moves in from the great lakes
region Saturday night.

There may be some showers and isolated thunderstorms with the
passage of the cold front, mainly for inland areas as the marine air
over the coastal areas keeps the atmosphere more stable here.

Inland, higher temperatures and higher dew points will mean the
possibility of a shower or thunderstorm before the cold frontal
passage, however, weak ascent will limit activity.

Much of Saturday night through much of the day Sunday will remain
dry as high pressure noses in from southern canada. The cold front
then moves north as a warm front late in the day Sunday into Sunday
night, showers are then once again possible, until the warm front
moves north of the area Monday, then showers with slight chance of
thunderstorms will be possible, until the associated cold front
moves through Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Thereafter,
conditions should remain dry through mid-week as the associated low
pressure heads away from the area.

Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/
A weakening cold front approaches from the west through tonight and
moves into the nyc area around 12z Friday. The front moves slowly
east of the nyc terminals and dissipates Friday morning. High
pressure over the western atlantic builds toward the southeast coast
Friday morning.

Variability with ceilings remains through this afternoon, with
mostly MVFR ceilings and unrestricted visibilities. The exception
of kgon where ifr prevails. A brief period ofVFR is possible at
many of the terminals this afternoon before ceilings and
visibilities lower back to MVFR and ifr 22z and later.

Widespread ifr to lifr with drizzle and fog after 02z and then
remaining through tonight. An isolated thunderstorm is possible late
tonight from the nyc terminals and west. Conditions improve Friday
morning as the cold front moves into the terminals. Timing of the
cold front and dissipation remains uncertain.

Winds S to sse 10 kt or less this afternoon into this evening, then
becoming light and variable. Winds shift to west with the passage of
the cold front then come back around to southwest as the front
dissipates. Sea breezes are likely Friday afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi43 min S 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 58°F56°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi43 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 61°F 49°F1012.4 hPa (-0.4)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi43 min SSE 5.1 G 6 59°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi53 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 54°F 52°F6 ft1013.3 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi53 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 52°F 50°F5 ft1013.3 hPa (+0.0)52°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi43 min 64°F 52°F1012.3 hPa (+0.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 42 mi58 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 52°F 52°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi43 min SSW 8 G 8 60°F 51°F1013.4 hPa (-0.5)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi43 min SE 9.9 G 13 60°F 55°F1011.7 hPa (+0.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi43 min SSE 14 G 15 60°F 1012.8 hPa (+0.0)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi43 min 67°F 54°F1012.2 hPa (-0.3)
MHRN6 49 mi43 min ESE 9.9 G 12

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi50 minS 710.00 miOvercast65°F57°F76%1013.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi47 minS 710.00 miOvercast65°F55°F73%1013 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi47 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast65°F57°F76%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE12NE7N7NE6SE3CalmNE3SE4CalmCalmW6W3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmS4SW4SW4CalmS9S7
1 day agoNE17
G24
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NE14NE13
G20
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NE11NE12E13
G23
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NE9N14NE9N11N11N13NE13N13NE11NE10NE11NE11
2 days agoS7SE7SE6E8E6E6E5E7E7E7E8E9NE7NE10NE11NE9NE9NE12
G19
NE14
G21
NE15E10E14E15
G20
NE12
G22

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:40 AM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:58 PM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.210.70.30-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.40.70.80.90.70.50.30-0.1-0.100.30.711.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:45 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:18 PM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.20-0.1-0.100.30.60.80.80.80.60.40.20.1-0.1-0.100.30.60.80.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.