Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:14PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:39 AM EDT (14:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:39AMMoonset 6:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 951 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of dense fog late this morning. Patchy fog this afternoon. Rain late this morning and early this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less...improving to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon...then becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 951 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will lift N into the waters today. Weak low pres will approach on Tue...followed by a cold front Tue night. High pressure will build in Wed and Thu. Another low will approach on Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 271427
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1027 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly lift into the region today. A cold
front with a wave of low pressure passes through the region
Tuesday night. High pressure builds in for Wednesday and
Thursday, and shifts offshore Thursday night. A low pressure
system approaches from the central united states Thursday night
and impacts the region Friday and Saturday. High pressure
returns for Sunday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Issued dense fog advisory for long island until 12 noon. Vsby at
all ASOS stations was 1/4 mile or less even at 14z. Rain moving
in from the west and warm front moving onshore may improve vsby
but this remains to be seen.

Also adjusted pop based on trends of radar and in hrrr and gfs
lamp, with one band of rain moving across from late morning
into the early afternoon, followed by scattered showers this
afternoon.

Adjusted high temps upward slightly across long island and
southern ct, with a little more widespread lower 50s.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday/
Convergence aloft in the dry layer does not seem conducive to
much rainfall tonight. As a result, only low chances for rain
were included in the forecast. If rain does develop, it may turn
out to be mainly sprinkles or light drizzle. Surprisingly big
differences exist between the NAM and GFS for Tuesday. The nam
holds off on the deep lift, and therefore the bulk of the rain,
for the entire day. The GFS brings in rain by morning. The ecmwf
supports the nam, by keeping the bulk of the rain with the main
shortwave. The GFS appears to be kicking off convection over
pennsylvania that brings residual energy in. The forecast sides
with the drier solutions, although there may be some showers or
pockets of light rain with weak vorticity advection and a moist
airmass. A blend of the models was used for temperatures.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
A southern stream shortwave over the oklahoma and kansas area
this Monday morning will weaken and track to the mid atlantic
coast Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a northern
stream longwave trough moving through south central canada moves
east and passes into northern new england Tuesday night. There
is still some differences in whether or not the two systems will
phase, with consensus for the south stream to be more
progressive and remain separate, and farther south than other
models, while dampening and exiting the mid atlantic. The
southern movement will keep an associated warm front to the
south. This southern and separate solution has been the trend
the last several runs. With higher confidence in precipitation
affecting the area, mainly the southern half of the cwa, will
have likely probabilities Tuesday night.

A northwest flow will persist across the region as surface
high pressure builds to the north and the upper northern stream
trough moves slowly off the northeast coast through Thursday
night. The surface high weakens Thursday night as another
southern stream shortwave approaches, however the upper ridge is
holding with the axis shifting east of the area Friday. The
southern stream system will also be weakening as the wave tracks
east. Have brought in chances late Thursday night into Friday
and this may be too quick if the ridge holds. The weakening low
will re develop off the mid atlantic coast Saturday with chances
of precipitation remaining into Saturday night. Cold air will
be in place across the northern tier and some of the
precipitation may fall as snow or a rain snow mix.

Weak high pressure returns for Sunday into Monday.

Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/
A warm from approaches from the south for late this morning.

This front will lift slowly through during the late
morning/early afternoon hours, possibly washing out across or
just north of the area.

Lower ceilings, drizzle, and fog continue this morning. Expect
widespread sub-ifr at most terminals.

Ifr conditions could last through much of the period, especially
to the north and east of the nyc terminals due to the
uncertainty with the timing and final placement of the warm
front. Confidence has lowered regarding improving visibilities
and ceilings from 18z to 22z across most terminals. In any event
ceilings and visibilities will be low again for Monday night
into Tuesday morning with exact timing and magnitude in
question.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi55 min NE 12 G 16 38°F 2 ft38°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi52 min 2.9 G 5.1 38°F 39°F1019.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi58 min NE 6 G 8.9 39°F 1019.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi50 min SSE 12 G 12 45°F 41°F5 ft1018.5 hPa (-1.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi50 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 43°F 42°F4 ft1018.9 hPa (-1.4)43°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi52 min 41°F 42°F1019 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 42 mi70 min E 12 G 14 39°F 2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi52 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 39°F 39°F1019.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi52 min E 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 41°F1018.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi52 min N 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 1019.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi52 min 41°F 42°F1019.3 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi52 min N 4.1 G 5.1

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi47 minN 00.25 miFog45°F45°F100%1019.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi1.7 hrsESE 80.25 miFog45°F45°F100%1019.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi44 minSSE 90.50 miLight Rain Fog46°F46°F100%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E9E13E15
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1 day agoN4N7S4NE6S6N12N13NE8E6N12
G17
E5NE9NE10NE7NE10NE9NE7NE6NE10NE10NE11NE8NE8E6
2 days agoS14
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SW10SW11SW8SW5SW6SW9SW9SW8SW8SW6SW4CalmN5CalmNW6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:13 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:30 AM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.100.30.60.9110.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.100.30.60.811.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:27 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:48 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:11 PM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20-0-00.10.40.60.80.80.80.60.40.20.1-0.1-0.100.30.50.70.80.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.