Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:43PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 3:16AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 658 Am Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect Wednesday morning...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Wed..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Light rain likely, mainly in the evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 658 Am Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Offshore high pressure today will eventually give way to approaching low pressure from the south. The low continues to move closer to the waters tonight into Wednesday and eventually the low center moves right across the area Wednesday night. Low pressure lifts to the north of the waters on Thursday. High pressure briefly builds, then gives way to a wave of low pressure late Friday and Friday night. A cold front moves through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 241124
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
724 am edt Tue apr 24 2018

Synopsis
Offshore high pressure today will eventually give way to
approaching low pressure from the south. The low continues to
move closer to the region tonight into Wednesday and eventually
the low center moves right across the area Wednesday night. Low
pressure lifts to the north on Thursday. High pressure briefly
builds, then gives way to a wave of low pressure late Friday and
Friday night. A cold front moves through Saturday followed by
high pressure Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The upper level jet stays north of the region with some upper
level ridging. The surface high pressure will remain offshore
and slowly move farther offshore during today. There will be
some Sun for the first half of the day but clouds will increase,
lower and thicken during the afternoon. The pressure gradient
will remain weak, keeping the onshore flow weak. Therefore used
a warmer blend for temperatures with the ecs mav guidance.

Expecting another day in the lower 60s near the coast and more
in the mid to upper 60s away from the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Surface low pressure slowly approaches from the southeast us.

There will be multiple trough approaching from the west in the
upper levels and even some signs of phasing between the northern
and southern branches of the upper jet. Expect most rain tonight
through Wednesday with it tapering off Wednesday night as the
low moves overhead Wednesday night and eventually north of the
region late Wednesday night.

Most substantial increase in isentropic lift occurs right after
00z wed. Most rain falls Tue night through Wed morning with a
max of omega conveyed by models around the 12z hour. This will
also coincide with the approach of the southerly low level jet.

Nam is remarkably farther west with this compared to the GFS and
other models such as the canadian and ecmwf. Depth of lift as
diagnosed by omega decreases Wednesday afternoon. Steady rain
will become lighter and may have some breaks from time to time.

Thunderstorm potential will be isolated due to presence of some
low level instability off the atlantic feed of moisture. Also
related to the atlantic feed of moisture will be the
precipitable waters, which are forecast to reach 1 to 1.3 inches
Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. After that,
the precipitable waters decrease, with values closer to 1 inch
through the evening. Further drop of precipitable water to
below half inch by early Thursday.

Ample low level moisture will be present as well Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. The steadier rainfall during the day will be
accompanied by fog but kept coverage patchy. There will be a
period of time Wednesday evening with the center of the low
passing overhead. The less forcing will make for lighter rain
and light winds will keep moisture abundant considering the
earlier rainfall. Expecting areas of fog to develop Wednesday
evening and then become more patchy overnight when winds become
more westerly behind the low.

Used a consensus of raw temperatures for the short term and to
minimize diurnal temperature ranges.

Long term Thursday through Monday
During the Thursday through Saturday time frame, features to watch
include departing shortwave over the northeast, southern stream
shortwave traversing across the southeast states ahead of vigorous
northern stream shortwave that moves out of the upper midwest toward
the east coast by Saturday.

The southern stream shortwave will lift northeast as the downstream
trough amplifies, with deep SW flow setting up. During the late
Friday time frame, showers ahead of this shortwave and sfc low are
possible, but differences in the models continue, with non gfs
solutions pushing most of the precip just SE of the area. Will
maintain chance pops with higher probabilities SE zones due to the
uncertainty.

Prior to that, generally dry weather is expected Thursday, Thursday
night and into early Friday. Any lingering rain ends Thursday
morning.

During the Saturday night through Monday timeframe, upper trough
pushes east, and there is the potential for additional showers late
Saturday into Saturday night, although probabilities do not appear
to be high at this time. Greater likelihood would be NW of the area
as trough closes off north of the great lakes region.

Upper trough lingers Sunday but gives way to building ridge as sfc
high builds by Monday.

Temperatures remain right around seasonal norms, with Sunday perhaps
a few degrees cooler behind the cold front. Temperatures warm early
next week.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
High pres will continue to move off the coast today. Low pres
approaches from the SW tngt.

Light and vrb flow this mrng. Flow becomes sely aft 14z, then backs
to the ese aft 18z, and to the E aft 00z. Speeds generally around
10kt or less until aft 00z, then a gradual increase can be expected,
especially at the coasts. Gusts to around 20kt on wed.

Vfr through 00z, with cond lowering to ifr or lower overnight as
rain develops. There is a low chc for tstms aft 12z wed.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 47°F 46°F1030.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi52 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 46°F1029.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi86 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 47°F 44°F1 ft1029.8 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi36 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 48°F 46°F1030.1 hPa44°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi46 min 51°F 47°F1030.4 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 42 mi121 min E 5.8 G 5.8 43°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi46 min Calm G 1 46°F 48°F1030.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi46 min E 2.9 G 5.1 48°F 49°F1030.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi46 min S 1.9 G 1.9 49°F 1030.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi46 min 51°F 49°F1029.8 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi46 min NE 1 G 1.9

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair47°F44°F90%1030.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi80 minNNE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F39°F100%1029.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi80 minN 09.00 miFair35°F35°F100%1030.4 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12E6SE14
G21
SE11E10SE9SE10SE10SE9S9S7S7S4S4S4SE3E4SE3NE3CalmCalmNE3NE3SE3
1 day agoN10N8NW7NW9N12N12
G20
5S13S13SW11SW12SW8SW5SW6CalmCalmSW5SW3CalmCalmN4N4CalmN7
2 days agoNW10NW10NW10
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SW12SW14SW10SW6SW4CalmCalmN8N7N7N9NW6NW6CalmN7

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
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Tue -- 03:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:05 AM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:34 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:36 PM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.10.30.60.811.110.80.60.30.1-0-00.10.30.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:45 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:05 PM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.50.70.80.70.60.50.40.30.1000.10.30.50.70.70.70.60.50.30.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.