Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:38PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:08 PM EST (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:03PMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 334 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
ANZ300 334 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure over the southern states races northeast tonight and passes across the waters Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the waters from the west Wednesday into Wednesday night. The high retreats to coastal new england Thursday as low pressure approaches from the south. The low moves along the coast and through the waters Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 122110
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
410 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over the southern states races northeast tonight and
passes over or just east of long island Tuesday morning. High pressure
builds into the area from the west Wednesday into Wednesday
night. The high retreats to coastal new england Thursday as low
pressure approaches from the south. The low moves along the
coast and through the area Thursday night and Friday. High
pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday as a low passes to
the north Saturday night. High pressure returns Sunday and
Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A highly amplified, yet progressive flow will send yet another
fast moving coastal low northeast from the southern states
tonight and up into the area near daybreak Tuesday. There
are subtle differences in the guidance as has been noted the
last several days with the low track. In general though, a
northeast track across long island and southern ct, or just
east can be expected. This difference though will have impacts
on the rain axis and potential for higher wind gusts up to 30
mph in the morning. The consensus though takes a strong low-
level jet southeast of the area. The other concern is always
how much momentum transfer there will be as the jet moves
nearby. Low-level temperatures profiles are inverted as a
warm conveyor belt ahead of the low results in strong warm
advection with rain overspreading the area near or just after
midnight. The best forcing should confine the highest rainfall
totals from nyc and points east with the potential for up to
1 1 2 inches and locally up to 2 inches.

Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s well north and west of
nyc early this evening and into the low to mid 40s elsewhere,
then gradually rise after midnight with warm air aloft mixing
down to the low levels with any precipitation. Some cold air
damming will be evident in the valley locations and will depend
on the exact low track. There is a low probability of any frozen
precipitation.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Steady rain and gusty winds at the coast early lifts to the
northeast by early afternoon. Strong cold advection ensues in
the afternoon with NW winds gusting up to 30 mph. These gusts
will likely carry over into the night.

Clouds will be slow to decrease on the backside of the low in
the afternoon with upper jet energy remaining in place.

Thereafter, clearing will ensue from NW to SE Tuesday night.

Forecast highs on Tuesday will be normal, ranging from the upper
40s inland, to the lower and mid 50s at the coast. Lows will
drop to below freezing across much of the area Tuesday night
with the possible exception of the nyc metro. Readings will be
about 10 degrees below normal.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Split upper flow develops Tuesday night into Wednesday as a southern
stream upper low becomes closed and cutoff from the longwave flow as
a northern stream trough passes to the north. A strong northwest
flow behind the low and strong high pressure building to the west
will bring in much colder air. There are hints that some lake effect
streamers may come within the lower hudson valley Wednesday
afternoon, however, left this out at this time. With the cold
airmass high settling over the region Wednesday night, and winds
decoupling, with clear skies overnight temperatures are expected to
be 10-15 degrees below normal.

There is some uncertainty in the forecast for Thursday with the
timing and placement of the southern stream upper low. This low will
be drifting northward, with the ECMWF slowest of the guidance, near
to the timing of the nam, and the GFS slightly faster. Leaned more
toward a slower solution. The southern low eventually phases with
the northern stream and opens up by 18z Friday. At that time a
surface low will be deepening along the northeast coast, and then
quickly passing to the northeast Friday afternoon.

The other issue will be precipitation type. Warmer air will be
streaming in aloft ahead of the low Thursday, while high pressure to
the north retreats. The question will be how quickly the surface
warms as high pressure potentially noses into the region. With a
developing easterly flow the surface along the coast warms, and kept
liquid precipitation across the southern zones. However, if the cold
air does not retreat, mixed snow and sleet will be possible even at
the coast. At this time, a light accumulating snow, mixed with sleet
will be possible across the higher elevations of northeastern new
jersey and the lower hudson valley. Inland may briefly go over to
all rain below colder air wraps around the low Thursday night. As
the 700 mb and surface low track over the region 06z to 12z Friday
precipitation may increase to moderate levels. The low moves quickly
Friday and may be lingering precipitation too long, into Friday
night, as the best forcing quickly passes to the north Friday
afternoon.

The northern stream then predominates Friday night into early next
week. One shortwave passes to the north Saturday night into Sunday.

Will leave area dry Friday night through Monday, however, if the
wave digs a little farther south, there will be chances of
precipitation, mainly to the north at that time.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
High pressure will drift eastward through this evening. Low
pressure will then move up through the coastal mid atlantic
region, and pass across long island Tuesday morning.

Vfr conditions expected through this evening, then rain with
lowering CIGS overnight into Tue morning. Flight category at the
nyc metros should drop to MVFR by about 04z, then to ifr about
08z-09z, with timing an hour or two later farther north east.

Lifr CIGS expected at the long island ct terminals by 12z-13z.

Gusty SE winds likely along the coast Tue morning just ahead of
the sfc low. Strongest winds aloft should be above fl025 and so
appear more conducive to compression than llws.

Improvement to MVFR expected late Tue morning at the nyc metros
as the low passes, with winds shifting nw.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi68 min N 1.9 G 3.9 47°F 48°F37°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi78 min S 5.8 G 7.8 48°F 34°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi38 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 53°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi38 min S 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 55°F1029.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi38 min S 4.1 G 6 1028.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi78 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 56°F1 ft1028.6 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi28 min NE 3.9 G 7.8 49°F 54°F1028.2 hPa40°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi38 min 47°F 53°F1028.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 42 mi38 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 49°F 56°F1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi38 min E 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 56°F1028.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi38 min SE 1 G 1 46°F 52°F1029.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi38 min SSE 8 G 8.9 48°F 1028.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi38 min 46°F 52°F1027.8 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi38 min SE 6 G 8

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair44°F34°F68%1028.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi72 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast43°F36°F76%1028.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair41°F34°F76%1029.2 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S6S8S7S10S33CalmN3Calm
1 day agoNW13
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W6W6--W6W5W9NW8W7NW6W8NW13NW11NW8NW11W6NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:55 AM EST     0.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:09 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:52 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.50.30.1000.10.30.60.811.11.10.90.70.40.20-000.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:37 AM EST     0.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:34 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.70.50.40.30.10.10.10.20.30.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.