Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:17PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:32 PM EDT (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 738 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain late this evening. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely...mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt...becoming se in the afternoon and evening...then increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less...then 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening. Rain likely after midnight.
Tue..E winds around 15 kt...becoming n. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the daytime...then chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 738 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will impact the area tonight through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the weekend. Another low pressure system may impact the waters Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayport, NY
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location: 40.73, -73.07     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 302120
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
520 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will impact the area tonight through
Saturday. Low pressure moves offshore Saturday afternoon and
night followed by high pressure Sunday through Monday. Another
low pressure system impacts the area Monday night and Tuesday.

High pressure briefly returns on Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
Subtle warm advection has led to the development of light
precipitation across portions of nj and southeast ny this
afternoon, though observations indicate little is reaching the
ground at this time due to the antecedent dryness of the air
mass. Gradual deep-layer saturation will occur as a potent
short wave approaches from the southwest, leading to
strengthening southwesterly flow that will draw moisture
northward. Although the warm front will remain to the south of
the area tonight, there is some uncertainty in the overall temperature
profiles tonight. The primary precipitation type is expected to
be rain for a majority of the area, though portions of
southeastern ny and ct may have marginal low temperatures in the
mid 30s. With the warm advection above the surface, the profile
may become supportive of brief periods of snow initially, then
perhaps sleet mixed with rain. Minimal accumulations are
anticipated, so no advisories have been issued at this time.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/
As the approaching short wave becomes more negatively tilted,
low pressure will rapidly deepen south of the area in response
to height falls and increasing upward motion. The somewhat
extended period of southwesterly flow will allow pwat values to
increase to near 1 inch, with moderate to heavy rain possible
at times. Any potential for thunderstorms largely remains south
of the area in the warm sector so did not add the threat of any
thunderstorms at this time. Surface temperatures once again
fall Friday night, but with the short wave departing eastward
any moisture aloft gradually begins to decrease. As such, any
lingering precipitation overnight will likely be light
rain/drizzle or perhaps ice pellets across the northern areas of
southeastern ny and ct. Winds are expected to increase Friday
night ahead of the deepening low, generally from the east-
northeast around 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/
Deterministic and ensemble models are in overall good agreement on
the continuation of an active weather pattern into next week.

Southern stream upper level cutoff low and associated surface low
will be moving just south of long island Saturday morning, passing
offshore in the afternoon and evening. Deepest moisture and best
large scale lift shifts to the east of the CWA during the morning
hours. However, enough moisture on the backside of the low should
promote light precipitation, tapering off late in the morning and
afternoon. Thermal and moisture profiles indicate the loss of deep
saturation. Surface temperatures across the interior should largely
be above freezing, with some of the cooler locations running close
to the freezing mark to start the day. Not expecting any snow with
loss of deep saturation and warm nose between 875 and 700 mb. There
is some room below this layer for a few ice pellets, although the
depth of the layer below freezing is rather shallow. It is entirely
possible that much of the lingering precipitation is in the form of
light rain. Precipitation ends by early afternoon with low clouds
likely to linger through the rest of the day. Went below guidance on
temperatures due to NE flow around the low and abundance of clouds.

Highs range from near 40 inland to the middle/upper 40s closer to
the coast. It will also be breezy behind the low with winds gusting
25 to 30 mph at times.

High pressure builds in Saturday night and settles over the area as
upper ridging approaches. Ridging at the surface and aloft will
continue into Monday before sliding offshore by Monday night.

The next system low pressure system to impact the area is Monday
night into Tuesday. The low is mostly associated with a vigorous
southern stream shortwave that lifts north from the gulf coast
region on Monday and then passes near or just south on Tuesday.

This system has a deep moisture feed off the gulf of mexico and
western atlantic and this is well illustrated by models showing pwat
values pushing 1.50 inches or around 250% of normal. There are
differences among the deterministic and ensemble runs on the
placement of the heaviest precip likely due to amplitude of the
shortwave and placement of warm front. Have increased pops to likely
with this forecast package as every GEFS member is showing potential
for a significant rainfall across at least some portion of the cwa.

The shortwave and associated low move offshore Tuesday night.

Brief ridging returns on Wednesday ahead of another low pressure and
shortwave that could impact the region on Thursday.

Near seasonable temperatures are forecast Sunday through Tuesday
although temperatures on Tuesday will be highly dependent on how far
north the warm front gets. Temperatures trend above normal for the
middle of the week.

Aviation /21z Thursday through Tuesday/
Vfr conditions are expected through the first half of tonight
as high pressure drifts east of the region. MVFR conditions
develop after 06z as low pressure approaches. Conditions
gradually fall towards daybreak, with ifr conditions or less
developing after 14-15z in rain. At kswf, a mix of rain and ice
pellets will be possible.

South-southeast flow prevails this evening with wind speeds
remaining below 10 kt. Late tonight, the wind direction becomes
more easterly, and during the morning hours on Friday, speeds
will increase to 10-15kt, with gusts into the 20 kt range.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi44 min S 6 G 8.9 42°F 1020 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 31 mi47 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 33°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi42 min S 9.7 G 12 42°F 42°F3 ft1020.9 hPa (-0.5)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi47 min SSW 9.7 G 12 41°F 1 ft
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi44 min 12 G 14 43°F 43°F1020.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi44 min SW 7 G 8.9 42°F 44°F1021 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi42 min SSW 14 G 16 42°F 42°F3 ft1020.8 hPa (-0.7)33°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Last
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N1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY5 mi36 minS 610.00 miOvercast41°F30°F67%1020.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY13 mi36 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast41°F28°F62%1021.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY18 mi39 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast42°F30°F65%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N7N13
G20
N11N9N7N4NW4NW5N6N7NW11--N14
G20
N13CalmN5CalmS10
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SW8S6SE8S8S6
1 day agoN8NE6N6N6N6N8N7N7N7N7NW11N11N12N15
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2 days agoN3NE3NE4SE3NE4NE5NE5W5NE5E3E4SE7E10E10
G17
E11S5E11E8NE6E7NE8E8NE8N9

Tide / Current Tables for Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York
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Sayville (Brown Creek)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.80.80.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.10.10.30.50.70.70.70.50.30.20-0.1-0.10.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:19 AM EDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:50 PM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.90.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-00.20.40.60.80.80.70.60.30.1-0-0.1-0.10.10.40.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.