Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:03PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:42 AM EDT (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:45AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1033 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Today..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain and drizzle after midnight.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 1033 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build across the waters today then slide east tonight, remaining over the western atlantic through early next week. Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly approach from the west moving through the region late Tuesday or even Wednesday bringing the chance for gale force winds ahead of it Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayport, NY
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location: 40.73, -73.07     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211438
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1038 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
Mild weather continues through the weekend. A cold front brings
rain to the region on Tuesday that may linger into Wednesday as
temperatures cool. High pressure builds back in by late in the
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Warm and dry weather continues with high pressure over the
region. Some cirrus will be streaming through from time to time.

Have lowered high temperature forecast slightly in many spots
based on temperatures at the top of the mixed layer and a light
onshore flow developing. While we'll be around 15 degrees above
normal, it's still below record values. Best chance of a tied
or broken record will be at islip where the record of 76 was
set last year.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Cirrus starts to increase on Sunday and we're partly to mostly
cloudy on Monday as warm advection increases aloft. MAX temps
lower slightly due to the cloud cover, but still well above
seasonable.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Well, it sure appears that it will actually rain! Analysis of
the 00z GEFS suggests cold FROPA consensus timing is focused on
Tuesday evening in the local area as a rather potent cyclone
occludes over the great lakes. Note that the ECMWF deterministic
run suggest a slightly slower and prolonged passage.

The GFS bufr wind data has impressed me with the narrow cold
frontal rain band. Standardized anomalies and the ensemble
situational awareness table indicate +3 standard deviation in
the 925 hpa southerly winds in the GEFS with the deterministic
gfs run getting up to +5 or more. Thus, the threat for at least
wind advisory (gust 40+ kt) criteria is increasing - especially
for long island and southern ct.

Did remove the thunder from the forecast as there's no CAPE and
all indices do not support it.

Beyond Tuesday night, uncertainty is high as for how much, if
any rain we get Wednesday. The majority of the GEFS members keep
the rain offshore. The local forecast is trending this
direction.

Temperatures average above normal through the period with
Thursday being closest to normal.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr expected through the TAF period as high pressure builds
overhead today, then moves east tonight.

Light northerly winds become S SW less than 10 kt in the
afternoon.

There is a low chance of MVFR to ifr stratus and or fog late
tonight at kswf khpn kgon.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday Vfr.

Sunday night-Monday MVFR ifr possible in stratus and fog.

Tuesday MVFR possible in showers. S wind g20-30 kt at coast.

Llws possible.

Wednesday Vfr. A chance of showers with areas of MVFR,
especially early.

Marine
Sub-advsy conds will prevail on the waters into at least Mon night.

The pressure gradient will begin to tighten late Mon night between
high pressure to the east and strengthening low pressure to the
west. SCA conds are expected to develop on tue, with gale force
winds possible late Tue and Tue night as there is the potential for
a 50-60kt LLJ at 950mb. There is uncertainty with the strength and
track of the low, so wind forecast does not reflect this potential
yet, but have increased the gusts from previous forecast. Will also
mention the gale potential in the hwo. Winds begin to subside tue
night, although the GFS is faster than the ec, so may be bringing
them down a bit too quick. Seas will likely remain above sca
levels on the ocean waters through Wed night.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected the next 7 days. Rain with cold
frontal passage late Tuesday should average near 1".

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tongue
near term... Jc tongue
short term... Tongue
long term... Tongue
aviation... 24 nv
marine... 24
hydrology... Tongue


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 2 mi57 min S 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 62°F52°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi42 min S 5.1 G 6 65°F 65°F1026.5 hPa (+0.7)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 31 mi57 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 63°F 50°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi52 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 64°F2 ft1027.5 hPa (+2.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi102 min N 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 1 ft
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi42 min S 3.9 G 5.8 69°F 48°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi42 min W 2.9 G 2.9 63°F 65°F1028.1 hPa (+1.1)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 39 mi42 min N 1 G 2.9 67°F 65°F1027 hPa (+0.6)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi52 min W 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 64°F1 ft1027.1 hPa (+2.0)56°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY5 mi46 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F48°F43%1027 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY13 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair74°F50°F43%1027.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY18 mi49 minW 410.00 miFair71°F41°F34%1027.3 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4W11NW10
G18
W12NW10W9NW6CalmCalmN6N3NW3SW3CalmNW4NW3NW5NW5CalmCalmCalmN3NW6Calm
1 day agoSW12SW17
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SW12SW13S11SW8SW10SW10SW9SW9SW8SW6W6W7W5NW3W4W5W5NW7NW8NW10
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2 days agoCalmCalm3S8S9SW6SW8SW4SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3W3SW5SW9SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York
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Sayville (Brown Creek)
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Sat -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:09 PM EDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.70.60.50.30.20.1-000.20.40.50.70.70.70.60.40.30.10-00.10.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:58 AM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:28 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.70.50.30.20-00.10.20.50.70.80.80.80.60.40.30.1000.10.30.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.