Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bellport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:36PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:26 PM EST (03:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:23PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 834 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds around 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 834 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A frontal system associated with strong low pressure tracking through the great lakes and southeast canada impacts the waters Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns early next week with low pressure possible during the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellport, NY
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location: 40.75, -72.93     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230154
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
854 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A deep low
passing several hundred miles northwest of the region will produce
unsettled weather Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds
across the region through the first half of the week. A low
pressure may impact the region during the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Thin cirrus with filtered sunshine resulted in a milky look to
the sky today and the cirrus will be in no hurry to leave as a
feed of moisture continues to ride the jetstream northeastward
overnight and up and over a ridge aloft centered off the east
coast of florida. This moisture feed stretches all the way back
across mexico and so we should see little change in the sky
cover overnight though model cross sections and flat layer 300
mb moisture hint it may thin a bit toward daybreak. Overall
mostly cloudy skies are forecast across the area for tonight.

Temperatures are a bit tricky due to the cloud cover, but lows
generally in the middle 20s inland to the upper 20s and low 30s
elsewhere are forecast. I did tweak lows a degree or two down in
outlying areas well away from the city based on the latest
observations. If the high clouds end up thicker, then lows may
end up a few degrees higher than forecasted.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday
Upper ridge axis settles over the eastern seaboard on Saturday with
surface high pressure gradually sliding offshore through the day.

The main change to the forecast for the daytime hours on Saturday
was to remove pops. Dprog dt on the models indicates a slower trend
with the onset of precipitation with the next system. Clouds will
gradually thicken and lower, especially Saturday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures should be near seasonable levels.

Deepening low pressure tracks up into the great lakes region
Saturday night. Warm advection and a approaching warm front from the
south will develop precipitation, especially overnight. The latest
trend continues to be for a slower onset timing of the
precipitation especially for areas east of the hudson river.

The overall synoptic pattern is not supportive of frozen precip
which has been par for the course during most of this winter
where the cold air has been quick to make an exit when precip
starts to advance on in or shortly after it starts. Temperatures
in the low levels of the atmosphere will rise well above 0c
through the night, with 850 mb temps progged to be near +10c
early Sunday morning. Surface temperatures could start out near
freezing across the interior of the lower hudson valley and
interior southern connecticut. It is here where a brief period
of freezing rain at the onset is possible though ice
accumulations should be limited to a slight glaze at best.

Otherwise, this event will be in the form of plain rain. Pops
were blended to match neighboring grids with the evening update
a little along the western border which also fit in-line with
the latest WRF (nam) and ECMWF qpf.

Rain continues Sunday morning and it could be locally heavy at
times. The atmosphere dries out quickly late Sunday morning with
rain ending from west to east around midday. The warm front will try
to push north of the area, but may not completely do so.

Temperatures should be able to reach the low 50s south and middle to
upper 40s inland. If the warm front does lift north, then
temperatures could end up a bit higher in the afternoon. A trailing
cold front moves through late afternoon and early evening. A shower
cannot be ruled out with this front, so pops have been maintained in
the slight chance to chance range. Any strong winds look to hold off
until Sunday night behind the cold front.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
High pressure builds toward the region Sunday night, behind a
departing cold front. With a strong pressure gradient, winds will
likely increase Sunday night reaching wind adv criteria and
continuing into Monday. Winds will lessen Monday night as high
pressure continues to build across the region. A week system might
impact the are on Wednesday bringing light snow showers. High
pressure builds in for Thursday, bringing drier conditions through
the end of the week.

Temperatures will be below seasonable levels through Thursday, then
bounce back to normal levels by the end of the week.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr as high pressure builds from the great lakes through
Saturday morning, then moves off the new england coast
Saturday afternoon.

Nw-n winds this evening should become N and diminish this
evening, and at the outlying terminals winds will become light
and variable. By late Saturday morning winds will become e,
then SE during the afternoon, less than 10 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi44 min N 2.9 G 4.1 35°F 36°F1030.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi36 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 40°F 39°F1 ft1030.4 hPa (+0.6)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi38 min NNE 6 G 8.9 36°F 38°F1030.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 44 mi38 min NNE 5.1 G 6 37°F 35°F1031.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 47 mi36 min NW 14 G 16 39°F 41°F2 ft1029.9 hPa (+0.7)27°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 49 mi36 min N 9.7 G 12 40°F 40°F1 ft1030.5 hPa28°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi90 minNNW 410.00 miFair34°F21°F61%1030.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi90 minN 510.00 miOvercast36°F24°F62%1030.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY17 mi33 minN 310.00 miFair31°F21°F69%1030.7 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW5CalmNW4CalmNW5W5NW5NW4NW3N8N14
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2 days agoN3N5N3NW4N4N4N45N5N3N5NE3CalmS3S6S333E4Calm336E4

Tide / Current Tables for Bellport, Bellport Bay, Long Island, New York
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Bellport
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:16 AM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:39 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:34 PM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.90.90.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.50.80.90.90.80.60.40.2-0-0.1-0.100.3

Tide / Current Tables for Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York
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Sayville (Brown Creek)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:11 AM EST     0.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:33 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:40 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:29 PM EST     0.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:01 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.70.60.40.2-0-0.1-0.100.20.40.60.70.70.60.40.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.