Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Patchogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:28PM Monday December 18, 2017 4:06 AM EST (09:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:13AMMoonset 6:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1223 Am Est Mon Dec 18 2017
Overnight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, then rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the morning.
Mon night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 1223 Am Est Mon Dec 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches from the south overnight. Weak low pressure tracks across the waters on Monday, then exits to the northeast Monday night. A cold front approaches on Tuesday and passes through the region Tuesday night, with high pressure building from Wednesday through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Patchogue, NY
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location: 40.77, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180544
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1244 am est Mon dec 18 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach overnight. Weak low pressure will
then track along the front near or over long island on Monday. A
cold front approaches on Tuesday, passes through the region
Tuesday night, with high pressure then building in for the mid
to late week. A frontal system will likely affect the region for
the weekend.

Near term through today
Only change was delay for onset of precipitation by a couple of
hours, especially farther to the north and east as high
pressure remains across new england south to eastern long
island. Light precipitation was developing ahead of the warm
front through central new jersey.

00z kokx sounding is fairly moist in the low-mid levels, except
for a dry slot from around 700-600 hpa. Given this and still on
track for a weak 700-500 hpa shortwave to cross the area
overnight early Monday morning ahead of a surface warm front,
and remaining on track for being in left front quadrant of upper
jet, appear to be set up for some spotty light precipitation
overnight into Monday morning.

Note: initial 00z runs have trended slightly cooler in low
levels thermally, so a little more snow and a little less
sleet freezing rain could occur than previously thought,
however, with the bulk of the 00z guidance still to come in,
made no changes to headlines and only minor changes otherwise.

A winter weather advisory continues for areas where light
freezing rain is expected, as even trace amounts can be
hazardous and require an advisory. Along the south shore of long
island and into the new york city area, a developing light
onshore flow looks to allow for the transition to skip the
freezing rain and go right to rain. These areas were therefore
excluded from the advisory.

There are a couple of ways the forecast can go wrong. The first
is that precipitation just doesn't materialize, as there is not
a lot of strong lift with the system - this appears less
likely. The second is that the precipitation ends before the
warm nose allows for the transition to freezing rain - the
chances of this seem to be increasing based on early 00z runs.

The greatest threat for this occurring is along and west of the
hudson river where the precipitation should end quicker, and
across eastern connecticut, where the cold air may just remain
entrenched. In any case, the threat of light freezing rain has
been deemed high enough to warrant the advisory.

Any precipitation ends Monday morning, with temperatures rising
into the upper 30s and 40s as heights increase and southwest
flow develops.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Tuesday
Westerly flow and lingering clouds will serve to limit low
temperatures. With a lack of deep moisture and lift, the
forecast has been kept dry. The superblend was used for
temperatures in order to account for the better low level mixing
due to the wind.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Models continue in good agreement with a broad but shallow
northern stream trough approaching the NE on Tuesday and sliding
through new england on Wednesday. At the surface, the primary
low pressure S will track through quebec ontario with a trailing
cold front approaching the region tue, and crossing Tue night.

Models have continued dry with this frontal passage for the
local region with the best forcing remaining north, and
confluent upper flow over the region. The one thing to watch is
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, the NAM is hinting
at some stratus drizzle with low- level saturation in the waa
pattern. At this point, a low prob of occurrence, but if
anything develops there would be a threat for light freezing
rain across interior as cold air will have a tough time scouring
out until daytime in this setup.

Upper trough swings through the NE Tue night into Wed with a
glancing shot of modifying arctic air in the wake of the cold front
for wed. Upper flow flattens for Thursday, and then becomes ridged
heading into Friday ahead of developing western central us
troughing. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the west wed
into thu, with dry and seasonably cold conditions.

Models continue in agreement with a pattern shift to a more
longitudinally oriented upper flow heading into the weekend, as
several pieces of northern stream energy continue to dig a deep
longwave trough into the western central us. This may bring the
coldest air of the season into the central us and rockies us by
around christmas.

The noticeable trend versus 24 hours, is that the troughing has
shifted a bit westward, with strong western atlantic east coast
ridging. There is still agreement on energy across the 4 corners
are mid-eek shearing towards the NE for the weekend, resulting in a
a frontal system affecting the region for the weekend. If this trend
holds, unseasonable warmth would be expected up the east coast for
this christmas weekend. Quite a bit of model divergence thereafter
on how this troughing and arctic air moves eastward for next
week.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
A warm front approaches from the southeast early this morning, then
lifts to the northeast by around midday. This front then stalls to
the north into Monday night.

Conditions lower to MVFR throughout early this morning. There is a
low chance of ifr as well. Timing of changes in flight category
could be off + - 1-3 hours. Expect a spotty wintry mix to rain at
kisp kjfk klga, spotty light snow at kswf and a wintry mix elsewhere
from overnight into Monday morning. There is some chance that
precipitation could remain more in the form of snow sleet vice
freezing rain, especially at northern terminals. Precipitation
should taper off from west to east 11z to 15z.

Light and variable winds through this morning. Winds become w-sw
this afternoon at under 10kt. Winds probably become light and
variable again this evening at all but kjfk klga kewr kbdr kisp with
winds wsw-w at less than 10kt.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Friday
Late tonight MainlyVFR with a very low chance for MVFR.

Tuesday-Tuesday night Spotty MVFR possible into Tuesday evening,
otherwiseVFR. Sw-w winds g20-35kt possible.

Wednesday-Thursday night Vfr. NW winds g20-30kt probable
Wednesday Wednesday night.

Friday Vfr with S winds g15-25kt possible, then MVFR or lower
conditions and llws possible late.

Marine
Forecast winds and seas remain as forecast. Updated to delay
onset of light precipitation a couple of hours. With a warm
front moving into the forecast waters predominate precipitation,
especially across the ocean waters will be rain, with a wintry
mix farther to the north.

Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels
through Monday as weak low pressure tracks in the vicinity of
long island. Westerly flow may increase to 25 kt by late Monday
night, especially on the ocean.

Moderate potential for SCA conditions on Tue in strengthening
sw flow and building ocean seas ahead of approaching cold front.

Widespread SCA expected Tuesday night through Wednesday with
tight pressure gradient and CAA in wake of cold front. Marginal
gale gusts are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Conditions then should gradually fall back below SCA Wed night into
into thu, with relatively tranquil conds continuing into Fri as high
pressure builds towards the waters.

Next chance of SCA appears to be ahead of an approaching frontal
system for the weekend.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for ctz005-
006-009-010.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for ctz007-
008-011-012.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for
nyz067>071-078-079-177.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for njz002-
004-103>107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jmc nv
near term... Jmc maloit 19 nv
short term... Jmc
long term... Nv
aviation... Maloit
marine... Jmc maloit 19 nv
hydrology... Jmc nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi54 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 31°F 43°F1022.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 31 mi73 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 36°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi48 min NE 1.9 G 6 30°F 42°F1023 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi76 min ESE 12 G 14 44°F 50°F2 ft1021.5 hPa (-1.1)
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi51 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 36°F 24°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi48 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 42°F1022.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi76 min ENE 12 G 14 44°F 51°F2 ft1021.2 hPa (-0.9)39°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi70 minENE 410.00 miOvercast33°F21°F61%1022.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi70 minN 010.00 miOvercast33°F18°F54%1022.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi73 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F17°F54%1022.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi73 minENE 310.00 miOvercast33°F23°F66%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N5NE4CalmN6N3N4N6N6N4N4N5N3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmE3E3NE4NE5E4E4
1 day agoW5W4SW9W10W13W12W16
G20
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W10W9W10W8NW7NW7NW8NW10NW7N9N7N6----
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3N7CalmW4W4NW6W6W5W8W6W7W5W5W6

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 04:57 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:37 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:12 PM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.70.40.20.1-00.10.40.711.21.31.20.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.70.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 03:58 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:56 PM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.50.20.1-00.10.50.81.21.41.41.210.60.30.1-0.1-0.10.10.50.81.11.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.