Thursday, June29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Patchogue, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday June 29, 2017 12:02 PM EDT (16:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:36AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 921 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt this evening, diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 921 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure settles over the western atlantic today as a warm front passes well to the north through tonight. The offshore high will then dominate Friday into Saturday before a cold front moves through on Sunday. High pres will then build in from the nw on Mon.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Patchogue, NY
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location: 40.77, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 291343
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
943 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure settles over the western atlantic today as a warm
front passes well to the north through tonight. The offshore high
will dominate the weather on Friday into Saturday. A cold front
will slowly approach over the weekend and pass by late Sunday.

High pressure will then build in from the northwest through the
beginning of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The fcst was on track with no major changes made. Middle and
upper level cloud cover continues to lift to the north and east.

These clouds as expected continue to thin and scatter out as we
head into the afternoon with just some scattered cumulus and
cirrus clouds expected for the remainder of the day.

High pressure moves over the western atlantic with a steadily
tightening pressure gradient into the afternoon. Increasing s-ssw
flow will result with sustained winds near the coast 15-25 mph with
gusts 30-35 mph. The strongest winds look to reside across long
island and southeastern connecticut this afternoon.

Temperatures are a bit tricky today due to increasing onshore
flow. Highs across the nyc metro, NE nj, and lower hudson
valley will likely reach the middle and upper 80s with long
island and southern connecticut in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

If stronger southerly flow takes shape sooner than expected,
much of long island and coastal connecticut may not make it out
of the 70s.

Dangerous rip currents are expected at the ocean beaches,
particularly in the afternoon and evening. A high rip current risk
remains in effect.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The main story for tonight will be increasing humidity levels and
much warmer temperatures than recent nights. A wave of low pressure
moves into the great lakes region with its associated warm front
settling across northern new england. Other than some weak short
wave energy, there is not much in the way of support for convection
tonight. Have confined slight chance pops to the interior where a
bit more elevated instability is progged to reside, but think the
night should largely be dry. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to
near 70 are forecast.

Ridging builds over the western atlantic on Friday. Temperatures and
humidity levels continue to increase with temperatures approaching
90 degrees in the nyc metro and NE nj and upper 80s across the
interior. Onshore flow will hold readings down into the upper 70s on
the immediate shore and lower 80s just inland across long island and
southern connecticut. Gusty s-ssw winds expected again, but not as
strong as Thursday, mainly 20-25 mph near the coast. Diurnal heating
is the only source for any convection with chance pops confided to
the NW interior.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
An upr low over the canadian prairie Fri ngt will drop sewd and
reach lake superior by Sun ngt. This will begin to carve out SW flow
aloft thru the period across the fcst area. Under this flow regime,
the best chance for rain is generally across the interior, or even
just NW of the fcst area, until significant forcing reaches the
region. Because of this, pops were limited to 30 percent thru the
weekend. The wild card will be residual convective complexes which
would be capable of kicking off a round of rain and tstms. It will
be warm and humid over the weekend with a blend of model data used
for temps. Although the mainly sly flow will limit temps,
particularly across long island and ct, it will keep the humidity up
until a wly component is added by Sun ngt. The only reason fog was
not included ATTM is because the winds may not fall off sufficiently
overnight. Otherwise, the sly flow will keep the ocean choppy and
result in a continued rip risk thru at least sat.

The upr trof, based on the 00z ECMWF and GFS data, comes thru mon
and tue. This will provide some dpva and help to steepen lapse
rates, however it appears the deepest moisture will have been
shunted offshore by this point, allowing for only isold-sct coverage
of any shwrs and tstms. Pops were limited to 30 percent Mon and tue
because of this.

Wed looks to be between the departing upr trof and the next
approaching system. The fcst has been kept dry as a result.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
High pressure drifts offshore through tonight.VFR conditions
expected. An initial light and variable to s-sw 5-10 kt wind
will increase to 10-20 kt with gusts mostly around 20-25 kt by
this afternoon with some peak gusts to near 30kt late this
afternoon into early this evening. Strongest and most southerly
winds expected at kjfk and klga. Winds decrease late tonight to
10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. However, there is forecast to be a
low level s-sw jet tonight just above the surface at 1-3kft of
40-45kt presenting the potential of low level wind shear. Winds
subside going into Friday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 7 mi93 min SSW 9.7 G 12 69°F 74°F66°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi45 min S 7 G 9.9 72°F 1019.7 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 31 mi123 min SSW 9.7 G 12 69°F 1 ft63°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 34 mi48 min SSW 12 G 16 73°F 61°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi45 min SSW 7 G 8 70°F 70°F1020.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi73 min SSW 18 G 21 69°F 68°F3 ft1020.8 hPa (-1.0)
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi48 min S 9.7 G 16 72°F 61°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi45 min SW 13 G 17 74°F 68°F1019.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi73 min SSW 18 G 21 69°F 67°F2 ft1020.4 hPa (-1.3)61°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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NW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi67 minSSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F63°F71%1020.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi67 minS 1010.00 miFair72°F64°F76%1021.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi70 minSSW 9 G 1610.00 miFair71°F61°F71%1022 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi70 minSW 1110.00 miFair74°F62°F67%1021 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW12
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W8SW16SW12SW9SW10SW8SW7SW5SW5W6SW5SW5SW4SW4SW6SW8--SW11
G18
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1 day agoSE5SE53S9S10SW11
G18
S12SW10NW4W4CalmW4N4N5NW5NW4W5NW3NW4NW6NW11N9NW8N10
2 days agoNW8S12SW14S12
G18
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G19
SW14SW10SW7SW8S8SW8SW4CalmSW3------CalmNW10NE7E5CalmS6

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Great South Bay, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.81.11.31.31.210.70.40.1-0-00.20.50.81.11.21.31.10.90.70.50.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Bridge, Narrow Bay, Long Island, New York
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Smith Point Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.21.41.41.310.70.40.1-0-00.20.50.91.21.41.31.20.90.70.50.40.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.