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FXUS65 KSLC 182209 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 409 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry conditions are expected to persist over Utah and southwest Wyoming over the next several days. High pressure will build in by the weekend, bringing a noticeable warming trend.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...
A stalled frontal boundary across central Utah continues to bifurcate the state between slightly below normal temperatures across northern Utah and slightly above normal temperatures across southern Utah. North of the boundary, the pressure gradient is maintaining light northerly winds, while south of the boundary southern Utah continues to see southwesterly winds.

Quiescent conditions continue tonight with lighter winds overnight. On Friday, there will be a weak/decaying mid-level trough moving across the desert southwest. The small amount of moisture increase and interaction with the stalled front will increase clouds over central Utah and invigorate some isolated/scattered showers central Utah along the frontal boundary. Northern Utah will remain dry and below normal north of the front, while far southern Utah remains mostly dry and above normal south of the front.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...
Big picture of the extended forecast period trends from a largely dry and warming regime through roughly the mid-week period to a wetter and cooler regime toward the end of the week. Weak high pressure leading up to the weekend will be replaced by a weak area of low pressure through the weekend. That said, the mid-level flow pattern will continue to feature above normal heights which will help to favor warmer temperatures over the weekend. With the introduction of a weak area of low pressure and limited lower level moisture, there will be a low end chance (~10- 20%) of light precipitation (generally less than 0.05 inches liquid) over portions of central and southern Utah, mostly favoring the mountainous terrain and adjacent valley areas.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of a mean ridge remaining the dominant large scale feature over the forecast area through at least Monday night/ Tuesday morning, which will keep drier and warmer conditions in the forecast through this period. There is some deterministic guidance that drops a weak frontal boundary into northern UT overnight Sunday into Monday which would cause about a 10 degree drop in daytime high temperatures, but daytime highs will still remain right around seasonal normals across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, and about 10-15 degrees above normal for the southern half of Utah. Past Tuesday morning, there is increasing confidence that the broad-scale weather regime will begin transitioning from a mean ridge to a mean trough. Chance for precipitation will lag into the latter half of the week as southwesterly flow aloft creates a drier low level environment, however, models are favoring an offshore trough progressing inland later in the week which would introduce much more lift and moisture into the area. So while there is still some uncertainty in exactly when we'll start to see that moisture phase into the area, we have generally high confidence that the pattern will flip to a regime favoring increased moisture and cooler conditions across the region.
At this point in time, we are not expecting anything any incredibly impactful system, however, the European ensemble suite supports a system that is just a bit wetter and windier than what's typical for this time of year. Will continue to monitor trends in the guidance heading forward as this pattern will, once again, put a hold on those nicer spring-time conditions.



AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Northerly winds will mostly dominate through the TAF period, although early Friday morning (likely 12Z-16Z) winds will become light/variable before returning to northerly for the remainder of the day.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A dry stationary front will remain place across central Utah through the TAF period. South of the boundary, southern Utah will maintain southwesterly winds while north of the boundary expect mainly northerly component winds to dominate. On Friday, a few isolated/scattered showers will develop along the frontal boundary over central Utah, with dry conditions north/south.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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