Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Hampton Dunes, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:06PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:22 AM EDT (12:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 658 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Saturday afternoon...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely early this morning, then chance of rain late this morning. Chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 658 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes over the ocean waters this morning and then moves northeast along the new england coast this afternoon as it intensifies. The low moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The high moves to the south on Sunday before giving way to a cold front Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Hampton Dunes, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.69     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221131
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
731 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure passes just south of long island this morning and
then moves northeast along the new england coast this afternoon
as it intensifies. The low moves slowly northeast toward the
canadian maritimes tonight into Saturday. High pressure builds
to the west Saturday and then south on Sunday. A cold front
will move through the region on Monday. High pressure will build in
during Tuesday and settle over the region Wednesday into Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Just a few cosmetic adjustments for the near term based on radar
trends as mid level dry slot has advanced a bit further north
for this morning. Surface low pressure has gotten just off the
new jersey coast. Slight adjustment to morning pops with likely
pops by mid day slightly further south than previously thought
as low really begins to wrap up with bands of showers more
likely across the northern tier of the region into the early
afternoon. The low will track towards the ene as it intensifies
through the morning staying just south of long island. The low
then tracks along northward along the new england coast this
afternoon as it continues to deepen.

With the dry slot punching northward, there are two areas of
moderate rain currently ongoing. The first is across far
eastern long island and second across the lower hudson valley
and NE nj. There is lighter scattered rain in between due to the
dry slot. The eastern area of rain continue to lift to the
northeast through day break, but the western area of rain will
likely continue into the morning on the NW side of the cyclone.

As the low moves ene, some colder air may briefly work into the
lower hudson valley. It is not out of the question some of the
higher elevations see a few snowflakes mixed with rain before
15z. The band of rain on the backside of the low will weaken
later this morning into the early afternoon as it moves to the
east. However, showers cannot be ruled out at any time in the
afternoon as there a secondary upper low approaches from the
west.

Rainfall amounts after 12z will generally be a few tenths on
average with the highest amounts inland. Pops will start out
likely to categorical and gradually lower to chance in the
afternoon.

It will remain breezy today with expected low track staying off
the coast. The flow increases behind the low this afternoon with
gusts 25 to 30 mph possible.

High temperatures will be in the 40s for most locations with nyc
metro and NE nj touching 50 degrees.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Second upper low pivots across the region this evening as the
main surface low moves through the gulf of maine. The second
upper low and its energy will get absorbed into the main low as
the system moves towards the canadian maritimes early Saturday
morning. Heights slowly rise aloft during the day Saturday as
the system continues track across the canadian maritimes.

The first concern this period will be tonight with the
secondary upper low and its associated cold pocket aloft.

Showers cannot be ruled out across the area for the first half
of the night. The combination of the cold pocket aloft and cold
air advecting south on the backside of the main surface low
increases the chance for snow showers across the interior
overnight. Some of the high resolution models (nam-3km,
extended hrrr, href) indicate a few bands that may develop
within the northerly flow across the higher terrain of interior
connecticut. Confidence is not overly high on how far south
these bands will extend and their duration, but it worth
monitoring trends through the day. If new high resolution data
continues to signal these bands, then pops, coverage of snow,
and amounts may need to be increased across interior
connecticut. The latest probabilistic snow high end amount
captures potential for 1-2 inches if these bands materialize
across interior ct. Any lingering precipitation late tonight
ends by daybreak Saturday.

The next concern will be with winds tonight into Saturday. Nw
winds increase tonight as the pressure gradient steepens between
departing low pressure and high pressure to the west. Sustained
winds 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph look likely late tonight
into Saturday morning. A few isolated gusts to 45 mph are
possible, especially near the coast. Per collaboration with
neighboring offices, no wind advisory has been issued at this
time. Winds look to stay below criteria which is supported by
average winds in the mixed layer 34-37 kt per bufkit soundings.

Winds in the mixed layer weaken late Saturday morning into
Saturday afternoon, with gusts 25 to 35 mph.

Temperatures should be a few degrees below normal on Saturday.

Lingering clouds in the morning should clear by afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Cyclonic flow east of hudson bay will be the dominant feature
driving our weather to begin the period. This will lead to somewhat
suppressed heights and prevent upper level ridging from building in
during Saturday night through the early part of next week. This
feature will help to drive a polar boundary southeast through the
region by late Sunday night into early Monday as a disturbance
emanating out of the eastern rockies and plain states will
slide east. The global models are suggesting that this system
will have difficulty conserving it vorticity, thus weaken as it
slides across the nations midsection and into the ohio valley
Sunday into Monday. Therefore the thinking that a weak to modest
wave of low pressure along the cold front will stay suppressed
and slide out to sea during Monday into Monday night as the
icon, gem, and more or less the ECMWF are steadfast with this
solution. The GFS however is painting a bit of a different
solution with more upper level support further north and thus
precipitation further north, with the fv3 not as bullish as the
operational gfs. At this point the GFS appears to be an outlier,
thus only went chance pops for Monday. The thinking for now is
that any precip will mainly be in the showery form, and mainly
in the form of rain with the front as the cold air lags behind
the frontal boundary, with the mid to upper level feature
further south over the lower mid atlantic states.

By Monday night cold and dry air advection should take hold leading
to a stretch of dry weather throughout much of next week. Tuesday
will feature below normal temperatures as the flow will come from a
region of sub 510 dm thicknesses just north of the border. By
Wednesday the upper level low across eastern canada will lift north
up into greenland and towards the pole. This will allow upper level
ridging to build in from the nation's mid section. As high pressure
builds in at all levels temperatures will begin to respond, with
temperatures overall climbing to more seasonable levels by
Wednesday, and climbing above normal for this time of year for
Thursday into Friday. A southerly flow will likely keep eastern
coastal sections noticeably cooler than western inland locations
during the afternoon hours later in the week.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Low pressure moves northeast along the new england coast this
afternoon as it intensifies. The low moves slowly northeast toward
the canadian maritimes tonight into Saturday.

Northerly winds this morning will back to W NW by afternoon. With
the low just south initially, wind speeds 10-15 kt with maybe a
few gusts to 20 kt will increase as the low pulls away. Gusts
25-30 kt are expected this afternoon and evening. Speeds
increase further later tonight with gusts 30-35 kt.

On and off light rain this morning will taper off to scattered
showers this afternoon and evening. Generally ifr low end MVFR
ceilings are expected, with improvement toVFR 16z-18z as the
low pulls away.

As mentioned, scattered rain snow showers are expected this
afternoon and into the evening which could produce brief local MVFR
or lower conditions. Coverage and timing is too uncertain to include
in taf, but will include vcsh.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 35 mi32 min E 3.9 G 5.8 42°F 41°F10 ft990.9 hPa (-1.5)42°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi34 min 41°F 41°F992.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi40 min 41°F 40°F991.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 43 mi34 min 41°F 40°F991.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi32 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 41°F 40°F10 ft990.1 hPa (-1.9)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 49 mi27 min NNE 13 G 17 42°F 991.8 hPa39°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY5 mi29 minVar 61.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F41°F93%991.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY9 mi26 minNNE 71.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F41°F96%990.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi26 minNNE 15 G 211.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F41°F96%990.6 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4SW6SW8SW8SW8
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2 days agoN6NE6NW63NW33SW10SW8SW10
G19
SW7SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:58 AM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:58 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:20 PM EDT     -2.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1.8-2.1-1.8-1.2-0.40.71.61.91.71.10.1-0.9-1.6-2-1.9-1.4-0.70.31.41.91.91.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.