Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tamaqua, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:39PM Sunday December 17, 2017 8:42 AM EST (13:42 UTC) Moonrise 6:32AMMoonset 4:33PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 631 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 631 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain south of the waters today. A backdoor cold front will reside just to our north today, migrating northward as a warm front this evening. High pressure will control the weather pattern through Tuesday before a cold front crosses overnight Tuesday. A small craft advisory is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tamaqua , PA
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location: 40.8, -75.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171124
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
624 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
A warm frontal boundary will lift northward through the region today
and tonight. A cold front will then move through the region Tuesday
night. High pressure will then build southeastward into the region
for the middle of the week. On Friday, an area of low pressure will
track northeast into the great lakes bringing a warm front through
our region. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage at the
end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 6 am, the front remains over northern delmarva, making
very slow progress south.

In the mid and upper levels, flow has already transitioned to more
zonal as the mid an upper level short wave trough from yesterday
continues to propagate further away from the region. With modest
pressure rises behind the front and a building high to our south,
the front may not make much more progress south before it stalls. By
mid day, the front is then expected to progress north as a warm
front.

There is very little synoptic and mesoscale forcing with the warm
front (more details on this in the short term discussion), but there
remains a small chance for rain along and just behind the warm front
later this afternoon.

Temperatures: expect temperatures near or even above normal across
delmarva (although the high may be reached late in the day thanks to
the warm front), while northern nj and the poconos (which should
have persistent cloud cover and be in the cold sector through the
day) will be slightly below normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
With the latest model run, almost all operational models backed off
on the amount and extent of qpf, synoptic, and mesoscale forcing
across our area as the warm front continues to progress north this
evening. It appears this is in response to models depicting the
surface high to weaken and move away from the region slower than
previously expected. There is little, if any, frontogenesis depicted
with the warm front, and it appears that the most lift comes from
light onshore flow developing below the inversion, which is usually
not enough for measurable precip. As a result, decreased pops
across the northern half of the area to slight chance.

Precipitation type: if we do have precip this evening, it looks like
the mid level cloud deck should be persistent enough to allow ice
crystals to already be present. Thus, if there is precip, it should
be mostly snow. However, if the mid level cloud deck dissipates
early, freezing rain would be possible for some of the area. Given
how unlikely precipitation is at this point, there is not nearly
enough confidence to issue anything, but we will keep the mention in
the hazardous weather outlook.

Temperatures: with the warm front moving through generally the first
half of the night, expect lows to be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Monday through Tuesday night:
our region will be between a high pressure off the southeast
coastline and an approaching cold front from the west. This will
result in southerly winds and warming temperatures. Enough moisture
and lift could be present ahead of the front for some isolated
scattered rain snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. However, the
signal for precipitation on both the operational runs and ensembles
is fairly limited and confined to locations mainly north and west
of cwa. We will only maintain slight chance pops in the southern
poconos.

It looks more like the increase in moisture may just lead to more
in the way of low stratus clouds at times. Fairly good agreement
with highs in the 40's and used a met mav ECMWF blend. Low
temperatures Monday night will be warmer with more clouds in the
30's. Right now the temperature forecast highs on Tuesday well into
the 50's, confidence is increased with these numbers as the ensemble
mean has gotten warmer. Nighttime temperatures Tuesday night should
fall back into the 30's.

Wednesday through Thursday night:
after the frontal passage, we return to northwest flow with cold
air advection into the region. Another period of gusty winds is not
out of the question. With high pressure building in, both days
should be mostly sunny. Right now the wind direction off the lakes
looks unfavorable for any increase in clouds or snow showers up in
the southern poconos. Bufkit analysis shows the potential for some
gusts from the west at around 20 mph Wednesday afternoon. High
temperatures both days should fall back into the 40's with lows in
the 20's, opted to go on the cooler end of the ensemble guidance
given the cold air advection into the region.

Friday through Saturday night & longer term:
a warm frontal boundary lifts northward across the region as a low
pressure system tracks into the great lakes on Friday. Another surge
of southerly flow and increase in southerly winds will come into the
region leading toward a moderating trend with temperatures, likely
reaching well into the 50's.

A cold frontal boundary will then approach the region from the west
on Saturday. Right now, this forecast is more in line with the
progressive ECMWF suite from 12z 12 16 and 00z 12 17. This is based
on the GEFS gfs suspect handling of the mjo looping in phase 6. This
suspect mjo forecast is likely causing the GEFS gfs to slow the
approach of the next cold front too much. Although, the 00z gfs
run 12 17 has increased the speed of the front a bit.

Depending on the frontal timing, a non-diurnal temperature is
possible but not included given we are quite a ways away. Modeling
is keying in on the potential for quite a bit of rainfall
potentially with this system, raised pops a bit with this update but
if timing confidence increases these will need to come up even more.

Right now, temperatures look to warm enough to prevent mixing with
snow ice on the front end of the system.

A quick look into christmas week does still provide the chance of a
white christmas with an active weather pattern that looks to turn
colder thanks to a epo which is falling several standard deviations
below normal. The - epo will discharge very cold air from ak
southeast into the united states just before christmas. A lot of
difference in the model and ensemble solutions are present at this
point. One of the key differences is the mentioned cold front on
Saturday and how fast arctic air can spread eastward. Also, this
front may have areas of low pressure which track northeastward along
it as well. The CPC outlook for the 8-14 day does indicate
increased probabilities for below normal temperatures.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions are expected, though a mid level cloud deck
around 5000 ft agl may advect south later today. Winds are
expected to be light and variable. High confidence.

Tonight... MostlyVFR conditions are expected overnight. There is a
small chance for precipitation at the TAF sites; if precipitation
develops then brief MVFR conditions are possible. Winds should
settle out of the east or southeast by this evening, but wind speeds
should remain 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday night: varying ceilings with intervals of low
MVFR or ifr stratus possible. Exact timing and lowering of ceilings
of uncertain with data varying at this point. Winds from the west
and southwest around 10 knots Monday then gusts from the southwest
at 15 knots Tuesday afternoon. Low confidence.

Wednesday through Thursday:VFR. West to northwest wind gusts around
20 knots Wednesday afternoon decreasing gradually into Thursday.

High confidence.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to stay below small craft advisory
conditions today and tonight. Wind direction is expected to be
variable, eventually settling out of the east or southeast by
tonight.

Outlook...

southwesterly wind gusts may approach 20 knots Tuesday afternoon.

However, the main period for concern is northwesterly winds
Wednesday which may approach or briefly exceed 25 knots. Data
indicating seas stay below five feet throughout the outlook
period. High confidence.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Gaines
aviation... Gaines johnson
marine... Gaines johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 73 mi43 min 34°F 40°F1025 hPa (+1.5)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 74 mi43 min 35°F 42°F1025 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA29 mi52 minENE 310.00 miOvercast31°F21°F69%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from ABE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW8SW9W11SW10SW10SW9SW7W7W5W5W5W4N6E6E4E3NE3CalmNE5NE5E4NE5E3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3Calm3NW3CalmCalmSW3NW3W5SW7SW7W7W5SW5SW9W6SW6W6SW7W9SW8
2 days agoNW4NW6NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Sun -- 12:15 AM EST     5.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:35 PM EST     6.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:49 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.55.34.53.52.51.50.4-0.30.21.93.44.966.25.54.63.62.51.30.1-0.30.72.23.5

Tide / Current Tables for Tacony-Palmyra Bridge, New Jersey
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Tacony-Palmyra Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EST     6.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:15 PM EST     6.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:13 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.66.25.74.63.42.11-0.1-0.312.64.15.86.86.55.64.53.320.7-0.20.21.52.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.